S SPPPIICCCEEESS EWWEEEEEKKKLLLYYY · 2012-05-19 · Jeera prices are projected to extend the corrections initially on profit booking by investors. According to trade sources, arrivals

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A

Pepper

Technical Recommendations Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Pepper NCDEX June-12 Buy at 39250-300 TP 41200/41800 SL below 37870

Review Pepper prices witnessed very choppy trend during the week on prevailing mixed sentiments across the domestic as

well as international markets. From starting of the week futures prices traded on negative note on continued

corrections. Exchange interventions through introduction of staggered delivery mechanisms washed away small and

medium traders from the market. Even traders who were interested in giving and taking delivery were trading outside

the market due to cumbersome delivery procedure. However, towards the end of the week prices revered the trend and

witnessed huge recovery on fresh buying at lower levels giving positive closing after 3 weeks.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 37770 40285 37360 39940 6.18 10273 13.95 4127 0.19Jul-12 38415 39440 37865 38250 6.08 256 310.16 178 192.70Aug-12 38700 39550 38500 38865 5.83 48 102.08 36 36.11

Outlook

Pepper May prices are expected to continue the recovery on fresh buying at lower levels. Tight supply situation in

domestic markets might also support the prices. With weakening in rupee Indian pepper has become competitive in

market which might support export activity from India pushing overall domestic prices on positive side. According to

sources, emergence of demand at domestic as well as export front ahead of festive season is likely to push prices in near

term. However, due to higher margins on long side and fear of uncertainty about prices might keep small & medium

traders away from market which might result in limited gains during the week.

Factors to watch out

Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi declined during the week and then reported a recovery giving closing at

`37,100 and `38,600 per quintal, against `36,200 and `37,700 per quintal reported during previous week for

Ungarbled and MG-1 grade respectively

Indian parity in the international market was at $7,125 Per MT (c&f) Europe and $7,425 Per MT (c&f) USA

Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 1585 tonnes as on May 17, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market declined at $7.50 per kg during the

week ended May 11, 2012 but quoted higher against $6.79 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Jun-12 35180 36270 38105 39940 41030 42120 43955Jul-12 36022 36943 37597 38250 39172 40093 40747

Aug-12 37343 37922 38393 38865 39443 40022 40493NCDEX

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s 19 May 2012

SSSPPPIIICCCEEESSS WWWEEEEEEKKKLLLYYY

________________________________________________________________________________ KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s


36800

37600

38400

39200

40000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Open Interest Volume Price

Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June

According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have improved. This indicates that market is

attracting larger numbers of traders willing to open positions from the long side and hold them. Traders are more

confident that prices will continue to climb in favor of a working long.

Technical

200

400

600

800

1000

Contango




Jeera

Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Jeera NCDEX June-12 Trading Range : 13090-14070

Review Jeera prices continued the corrections 2nd consecutive week on long liquidation. From starting of week futures prices

moved up on back of sudden fall in arrivals at spot front. Good export demand from exporters also pushed the prices on

higher side at spot market Unjha which as also reflected in futures prices. However, later on prices turned negative due

again resurgence in arrivals in lieu of good prices weighed on sentiments and prices resumed down trend. Investors

also booked their profits which resulted in drastic fall in futures prices. Therefore, on cues from prevailing

fundamentals futures prices also trade on lower note and ended the week on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 13600 14132.5 13182.5 13560 -0.11 67632 -9.89 18708 -0.80Jul-12 14000 14380 13787.5 13900 0.02 10656 20.61 10500 25.58Aug-12 14520 14777.5 14150 14315 0.56 435 752.94 249 538.46

Outlook

Jeera prices are projected to extend the corrections initially on profit booking by investors. According to trade sources,

arrivals at spot front are expected to decline in near term as arrivals season is coming to an end which might support

the prices. However, sudden ups and downs on daily basis might create volatility in prices. Demand from exporters is

still good which cushioning prices from sharp fall. Decline in production in Syria and Turkey is likely to support Indian

jeera exports in short to medium term.


Arrivals at spot market of Unjha were very volatile and remained in the range of 18000-26000 bags and demand

was reported for 28000-30000 bags (1 bag= 60 Kg)

India is likely to export 60,000-65,000 tonnes of cumin seed in 2012-13 (April-March), up from 43,000 tonnes in the

same period the previous year

Jeera sowing in Syria has been reported less around 30%. On the regular disturbance in Syria there is lack of

laborers and on the unfavorable weather conditions cumin seed production is expected not more than 50 %

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 11,237 tonnes as on May 17, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market remained steady to $3.75 per kg during

the week ended May 11, 2012 against $3.73 per kg reported in the same period last year

Pivot Point


Aug-12 13423 13787 14051 14315 14678 15042 15306NCDEX




13000

13300

13600

13900

14200

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000



According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have declined. It is an indication that price decline is

being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. However, underline

fundamentals are still positive which might result in recovery in prices.

Technical

250

300

350

400

Contango




Turmeric


Turmeric NCDEX June-12 Buy at 3940-50 TP 4180/4288 SL below 3780

Review

Turmeric prices extended bullish trend on back of improved stockiest buying during week ended on June 19th. Futures

prices started the week on negative note taking corrections on profit booking by investors at higher levels. However,

these corrections again created opportunity for fresh buying. However, government’s decision on not procuring

turmeric directly as turmeric is not an essential commodity and only polished turmeric will be procured weighed on

prices. Nevertheless, local buyers who were having orders from north India continued the buying at lower levels

supporting turmeric prices to recover and futures pended on slightly positive note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 3780 4288 3780 4048 0.74 101370 -6.97 25860 10.11Jul-12 3970 4496 3932 4244 -1.13 15360 40.98 6700 34.18Aug-12 4332 4510 4244 4312 -2.44 3630 148.63 1530 243.82

Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to take decent corrections during early trading sessions in coming week. Reports of govt.

decision regarding turmeric procurement might weigh on sentiments. However, annoyed with govt.’s decision farmers

might further reduce supplies at spot front which might cushion turmeric prices. Demand from north Indian buyers

have is likely to support prices to move up.


Spot market of Erode witnessed limited arrivals during the week (12,000-15,000 bags during the week)

Traders are quoting higher prices for fine quality turmeric for export purpose while stockiest are building

inventories at lower levels

Farmers have reduced supplies at spot front still traders are not quoting higher prices which is annoying to farmers

and they might take some step

Exporters have received fresh order north Indian and Arab countries ahead of Ramadan

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 6388 tonnes as on May 17, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained steady at $3.53 per kg

during the week ended May 11, 2012 however, down against $6.28 per kg reported in the same period last year

Pivot Point


Aug-12 3935 4089 4201 4312 4467 4621 4733NCDEX




3500

3700

3900

4100

4300

1000

6000

11000

16000

21000

26000

31000



According to derivative analysis, prices and open interest have increased volumes have declined which indicates fresh

buying with less participation. Market is attracting late buyers & early shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction

but likely that that correction will be bought creating a buy point for uptrend.

Technical This week NCDEX Turmeric

prices are trading at 4078 levels

marginally up by 0.50% from

the previous week. This week

prices have made high of 4178

against the low of 3876. This

week we have seen price will

trade in narrow range against

the previous week. But if we

look at the volumes on weekly

chart it has increased same as

previous week. This week

prices have settled above 23.6%

Fibonacci retracement levels

which is 3943 levels. Over all trends for the turmeric prices is bullish for the coming week. The principles of Fibonacci

states that prices have next resistance of 4288 levels which previous weeks high If breaks this levels prices may touch

4380 levels which is 50.00% Fibonacci retracement levels of the range of 5206-3553. While prices have supports of

3876 and 3780 levels. While applying momentum indicator RSI_14 periods on daily chart which is treading at 56.39

levels which is above the centre line (50) which shows that prices have still room for the upside direction which is

supportive for the turmeric prices. Going by the above analysis short term traders may use buy at lower levels strategy

for the coming week.

100

130

160

190

220

250

Contango




4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


Chilli


Chilli NCDEX June -12 Buy at 4830-50 TP 5090 SL below 4720

Review

Chilli prices recover from earlier losses on short covering during the week ended on June 19th. From starting of the

week Futures prices traded on down on extended corrections. However, later on prices took smart recovery on lower

level buying but overall trend remain very choppy. Therefore, futures prices ended the week with marginal gains.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 4994 5050 4822 4866 1.44 9115 11.19 11080 -10.97Jul-12 4980 5022 4780 4986 0.32 4965 61.99 3030 9.78

Outlook

Chilli prices are expected to witness slightly positive trend on lower level buying after witnessing huge losses in recent

past. Spot market of Guntur is closed for 1 month due to peak summer month. Therefore, no major changes can be

expected during this period and prices might trade in a narrow range. However, prices are expected to recover from

these losses in short to medium term as after market opening fresh buying will be witness in market supporting the

prices to move up.


Spot market of Guntur will be closed from May 7th, 2012 for one month due to peak summer month

According to traders, now farmers will directly deposit their produce to cod storages

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 8135 tonnes as on May 17, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market declined to $2.98 per kg during the week

ended May 11, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX


-10

20

50

80

110

Backwardation




According to derivative analysis, prices and volumes have increased while open interest has declined. It is a good indication

that market may be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of the

market but liquidating before end of day. Often a signal of a market turns near-term or continued volatility.

Technical




Cardamom

Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Cardamom MCX June-12 Trading Range : 1246-1380

Review Cardamom prices continued the bullish trend for 3r consecutive week. From starting of the week prices started trading

on positive note on back improving spot auction prices along with reports of crop damage. However, during the week

prices took decent corrections on profit booking. Nevertheless, limited arrivals amid end of arrivals season also cushion

the prices and futures prices closed the week on higher note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 1173.6 1381.2 1171 1272.6 5.54 33470 27.14 4046 4.84Jul-12 1225 1407.8 1208.2 1279.4 5.75 5568 80.82 1378 14.15

Outlook

Cardamom futures are expected to continue the positive trend in coming week. According to trade sources, now supply

and demand has become balanced which is keeping prices stable at spot auction. Rising demand from local buyers and

exporters ahead of Ramadan month is likely to support the prices. However, prices might witness corrections on back

on profit booking at higher levels. Reports of good pre showers in major growing regions of Kerala might also weigh on

prices. However, overall trend is still positive amid good demand from exporters which might cushion the prices during

the week.


Arrivals Daily auction declined to 20-60 tonnes while average prices moved up to Rs.711-850 per Kg.

Demand for Ramadan is expected to pick up in full swing in coming days

According to traders, due to dry spell next season crop is likely to be delayed by 1-20 days and might hit the

market by end of August

Total arrivals during the current season to May 13 were 17,334 tonnes and sales 16,732 tonnes against 9,726

tonnes of arrivals and 9,474 tonnes of sales in the same period last year

MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on May 17, 2011 were 40.2 tonnes

As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $25.21 per kg

during the week ended May 11, 2011; against $24.42 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX




1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have increased which indicates fresh buying. Rising

participation on buying side with good open interested indicates that traders are confidant towards buying side and

positive trend will continue in coming days.

Technical

-30

-10

10

30

50

Backwardation




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S SPPPIICCCEEESS EWWEEEEEKKKLLLYYY · 2012-05-19 · Jeera prices are projected to extend the corrections initially on profit booking by investors. According to trade sources, arrivals