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8/14/2019 s BAT, Colin Greig, Bigger Bag Document
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-Structured crea tivitygroup
Thought s by C C . Grei g- R&D Southampto n
Marketing scenari o
Before s tart ingonanyfuture s cenari o let us lookat what we
are c urrentlysell ingandwhere an dhowit has develo ped
Acigaret te as a -drug- ad mnistrat ionsystemfor publ ic use
has very very significant advantages
1) Spee d
Wthi n10 seconds of start ingtosmoke nicotine is availabl e
in the brain . Before t hi s, impact is availabl e giving an
instantaneous catch or h it, signifying to the user that the c igaret te
is -active- . Favour, also is immediatelyperceivable to ad d
tothe sensation
Other -drugs- such as marijuanha, amphetamines, and alcohol
are slower and may be mood dependant .
ii) Lo wdosag
The d elivery of nicotine fr omthe p uff of a UKmddle t ar
(USfull flavour) i s about O lmg or 1O0ug of the active agent .
By contrast, other common drugs such as aspirin require about
300mg (3000 fold excess on one puff, 300 fold excess on a per
cigarette comparison), and a saccharin tablet contains about 15mg
of act ive ag ent .
Oher ext remes o f drugdosages ar e al cohol ( 1-shot- of about
lox, - 28gms, at approx 40Z alcohol is about lOgms or 1O,OOOmg ,
anexcess of 100000foldper puff or 10000foldper ci garet te),
and LSD, where a dose of 100-500ug lasts 12-24 hours but is viewed
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askance by most legal authorities . The co ntraceptive pill another
all dayactive ( hopefully) d rug has 1to15mgof active i ngredients .
Thus nicotine is about the l owes t dose -common- drugavai labl e
Cost
The unit cost of a 10 minute "hi gh- fromtobaccois, in UK
ter ms, about 6 pence (approx . 9 5 UScents), al though such l ower el sewher e .
Thi s sumis about 40 seconds pre t ax ear nings at the UKaverag e wage or
about I minute after t ax
The future ?
Thus we hav e anemerg ingpict ure of a fas t, hi ghl y
pharmacologicallyeff ective andcheap-drug-, tobacco whi ch al soconfers
flavour andmanual andoral satisfactiontothe user . There a re other
things about tobacco though . It is legal (as is alcohol but not
marijuanha a ndLSD), andthe a rticles themselves are emnentlyportabl e
It canbe usedfr eelyinpubl ic places inmost countri es .
So all In all, it is a relativelycheapandeff icient delivery
system legal, andeasilyusable
However, it has drawbacks . The major one is that it has a
' health s hadow" over it whi ch i s not easytodispel . Secondly it is a
messyhabi t, pollutingthe non-smokers breathabl e atmosphere andleaving
ash anddebr is, not tomentionsmells, aroundfor h ours or days . Thirdly
carelesslyused it sets fi re tothings .
As a res ult of al l these It nowhas a social acceptabi lity
such bel owthat of former t imes .
As tothe d esignandproductionof the d evice like all consumer
goods it has had torea ct tothe marketplace. As time has evolvedmost
consumer products into more convenient, higher performance variants, so
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have tobacco producers reacted to consumer and governmental pressures .
Rowever, thi s rea ctioncanbe s eenas due t othree pressures ,
of whi ch o nlyone i s the co nsumer towhi ch we s el l our product s! The
other twoare bot h ar ms of government, onthe o ne han dthe Treas ury who
collect a vas t amount of thei r income f romour product . Indeedinthe
UK tobacco (mainly cigaret tes) i s the t hi rd larg est contributor to the
Gover nment revenue - at 4 . 5 bi llion it repres ents, aft er i ncome tax and
VAT ( a consumer s al es tax), 5Xor s light lymore of Gover nment revenue .
I propose t odwel l onlybr iefl yonthe c onsumer as pects of
product chan ge since I b el ieve that onlya mnor part of the t otal change
is due t othe co nsumer . Repeatedattempts byoutside forces todri v e
the c onsumer t olower tar h ave ingeneral , res ultedIn at wors t (in
Governmental andSoci al pres sure groupeyes ) a b acklas h andat bes t only
a steady inexorabl e grinddownwards i ndel iveri es . It is a moot point
whet her actual del iveri es tohumans have ever r eallydroppedacross the
vas t maj orityof t he s mokingpopulat ion . True there is nowa groupo f
heal th concernedsmokers " who buylowor ultra-l owdel ivery product s and
puff awayvali antly but I suspect that there are f eweven of thes e who
are real "s mokers " - t hey are n ot "s mokers " i n the r eal sense of the
word more u sers of cigarett es to divert internal stres s . It must be a
dilemma fo r themwhet her t osmoke at all - thei r peer groupprobabl yis
the most vocal anti-s mokingclass of all , sotheymust reallyneedthe
rel ief o f those i nternal pressures very badly iudeed
If one looks, cusorily, at the human behaviour records in GR&DC
over t he l ast fifteenyears, the immediate conclusionis that puff volumes
have ri senas inexorabl yas machi ne deliveri es have declined
Giventhe designparameters of t he cigaret tes, it is possibl e
tospeculate that humancompensationhas , for a s ignificant part of the
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smokingpopulat ion negat edat tempts toreduce tar d el iveri es .
Now ther e are manyconfoundingfactors involved - andI invite
youtotake your pickas towhi ch youthi nkmost important, but I s urmse
that over a s moker' s lifetime i nvolvement wth ci garettes ingeneral, he
tends toinwardly-t itrat e" or ad ust hi s curr ent deliverytowards that
wth whi ch he was fi rs t acquainted- i f the c igaret te wll let hi m
Indeed a doleful letter rec entlyappeared inthe "T imes" bewailingthe
fact that "Capstan" a plainUK70mmbrand usedtolast nine mnutes but
now is consumed in four . Allowngfor cigarette designandincrea sed
smoulder r at e for de livery reduct ions, one wouldexpect, onmachi ne
smoking tosee at least sevenmnutes duration . The c onclusionmust be
that whi le puffing thi s smoker is increasinghi s puff volume - a ndthus
hi s tar intake possibl yfromthe c urr ent machi ne delivery approx . 19mg
tar, uptothe 35 or s omgof hi s youth . Manypeople wl l tel l you
authori tativelythat, onsoundstatistical analysis of well designed
experiments, low tar smokers do not compensate . Rubbis h . The findings
are v al id but the cho ice of smokers probabl ywas not .
Observation of my mother-in-law tends to confirm the point . I
have, unbeknown to her, given her middle tar (BAT) products while she is
a, and possibly the, confirmed low tar Du Maurier smoker . She I would
guess, since I hav e nodata other than that seenfromobs ervations of
puff durat ionandcoal temperat ure certai nlydoes not take a 35= 1puff
onDuMaurier - p robabl ynearer 50 -, andprobabl yabout 35 onSat e
Express . Fromwhat we knowof del iver ies at non-standar dpuff volumes ,
I wouldsuggest that she get s about the s ame fromeither ci garette) So
yousay since shes 65 why-does' nt she onmypri or r easoning increas e
volumes and durations till she can get 35-40mg, which are the deliveries 0L
of her youth s ome 45-50 years ago? The a nswer i s simple - t he c igaret tes G :>W
wont let her)
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So I an proposingtwothi ngs for your considerat ion . One i s
that people t ry to compensat e fo r past ci garet te designs to the bes t of
their abi lity and the other i s, that o ver t ime these e ff ort s may become
less necessary as t he distant memoryof l ong-egoevents fades .
At thi s point youmayhave read those what I h ope were i nteres ting
"divert issements- andare n owwonderi ngwhat I am ai mngat . I hav
shownyounicotine inrel ationtoother d rugs, andindicatedthat hu man s
perhaps "t ltrate" fo r nicotine
Wer e dowe gofromher e? O ne obvious route i s togive people
more nicotine as tar i s reduced i .e . increase t he a lcocine :tar ra tio or
as we normal lyuse t erms, decrease t he t ar :nicotine rat io . But couldwe
Technically the a nswer i s yes , but al l our experi ences founder
onthe ro ckof acceptabi lity . The very reasonis that since tobaccoIs a
rel at ivel yeff ici ent nicotine del ivery system over what Is nowsome
hundreds of years, a bal ance Insubj ective flavour : strength rat ios has
been struck . If I allude ba cktomycomments about mymother- in-law
her Initial cigaret tes of 35mgtar (or so) probabl ydelivered 3mgof
nicotine . If we attempt todayby bl endmodification togive her her
3mgof nicotine at a t ar :nlcotine ra tioof say5 :1rather t han11 :1 as
previously she wll have a natural revulsiontothi s "fl avourl ess but
over potent- newcigaret tel It follow fromthi s that I h ave equated
the f lavour :strength ra tiowth t ar :nicogine whi ch I d onot thi nk
unreasonable .
If ve followthi s type of thi nkinga li ttle furt her, we can
begin, perhaps, to understand vhy we seem to be plagued with such a
conservative population of consumers . ' It is because earl y tri als o
cigarettes, as in so many of our meetings with novel concepts, shape ourL
later behaviour . W all hear comments like "ro ast beef (or hamburgers
O
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etc etc) doesnt taste like it usedto . Surely roast beef an d
hamburgers wont, because the s tyle of cat tle thei r f eeding the way
joints of meat are c ut, the u se of growh ac celerat inghormones andthe
presence of preserv at ives have had aneff ect . All are co nsumer ( or
Government?) demands . The signifi cant thing I s uggest, is that we
think we can remember what they were like years ago . Surely this must
ext endtocigarett es ?
It is veryimportant toremember t hat anyat tempt onour part
torevive past glories inconsumer m nds must be a c redibl e one . To
borr owfr omthe motor ca r bu siness, inthe UKthere is a small, pri vate
firm, Morgan, who manufacture a car whose design goes back to 1908 in
cert ainpart s andwhose s tyle i s 1930s . It wouldnot be c redibl e
(though i t has been tried) t ohave both modern car perf ormance and
convenience from such.a machine . Wowants a Model T t hat goes like a
Corvet te or anAustin7 l ike a F errari? The c oncept of Barcl aycanbe
alliedtothis type of nostalgia . Advert isinglines like the pleasure
Is back" s ugges t, thr ough t he p romotion a Scott Ftzgeral d1930 s USA
image . Is it credibl e that a 1mgcigaret te canperf ormlike the US
cigaret tes of t hat era? I d onot cri ticise Barcl ay whi ch i s a
magnificently engineered device . Neither doI cri ticise the promotional
Ideas which Led to the campaign . I merely ask' canthe c oncept be
substantiatedinrea l consumer at titudes?-
I wll gofurt her . Recently I dida longandcomplicated
piece of res earch work totry todiscover what elements of cigarette
design influence "smoking mechanics' . I reg ret tosay fr oma purely
scientifi c view I s ucceededonlytoa very limted but hopefullyusefu l
degree . Wat emerg ed inmyphi losophi cal thought s about the work was a
compari sonthat r wouldlike toshare w th you
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Youare an internat ional businessman wel l convers ant wth t he
jet set life - f lying fromAto B usually bei ng met and chauffeured to
your hotel . Bowever, fr omtime to time thi s is not possibl e and in
thes e events youhi re a car . You step fort h f romthe fo rmalities, key
in your hand to the p arki ng lot, and your vehi cl e let us say a Ford
Serr a or Chevrolet Chevet te awai ts you . It is dark and raining and
youhave notime or incli nat ion tolook for those s tat us marks such a s V
GLS etc etc . Youget in start the ( we s uppose s ilent) motor, engage
a gear, havingremembered whi ch s ide of the r oadtodrive on place you
foot onthe a ccellerat or, andset off . What happens ?
Well, in Germany you probably got the V8 turbo charged version -
result, your' e at the o ther en dof the p arkinglot befo re youknowit . In
the UK wth t he s tandard model, all goes roughl yaccordingtoyour past
experiences . In the US wth all the anti-pollutiongear, the thingmay
only barely move .
Wysuch a smle? Because our cigarettes canbeha ve s imlarl y!
One whi te rodis apparentlylike another, until it is lit . It i s only
then - when youput your f oot onthe a ccelerat or, figurat ivel yspeaking-
that things change . Is there a nopport unityfor us here
Let us gobacktothe whi te stick . Sure it' s like any other
whi te s tick . It ' s fi lledwth tobacco(youpresume), it ' s fi rm t heres
anendtoit of reasonabl e appearance andsome tobaccothere t oshowits
made of tobacco andits usuallygot a whi te fi lter endonthe other,
covered incorkor whi te t ipping
Myques tionis, why dont we use t he co nstruct ionor colour of
the c igaret te t otel l our consumer what toexpect . Myanal ogywth t he
hire-car was dependant, if you remember, on two things . One the motor
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was silent in operat ion and two you couldnt see the bad ges that told
youwhat per formance toexpec t . Our ci garet te is exactly similar . It
comes out of a package unlit (silent) an d once out, nothi ngrea p
differentiates it fromanother ci garette ( nobadges, though we dotry) .
Wve forgottentotell the user what toexpect . Sure, we
wote inbi gletters (or as bi gas the government toldus), some data on
del iveri es o f vari ous thi ngs . Once out of that pack our ci garet te is
not differentiatedfromanyother, andnosmoker offeredit unseenknow
what to expect . I co uldproduce for youtwocigaret tes o f visually
identical construct ion(unles s youuse a m cro scope) whi ch co uldbe o f
1mg and 20mg delivery!
So the fi nal qu estionI as kis, canwe give a consumer s ome
guara ntee t hat we the manufacturer, are o ff eri nghi msomethi ngthat he
wants, that s atisfi es hi s requirements, is credibl e and is unique to us?
Splittingthi s down Intosections, we can deal wth t hemas f ollow :
Wat does he wan t
He wants, in myy, estimation, a product that smokes like those he
was fam liar wth some years ago(natural ly as the years goby there
wll be l ess andless smokers who-remember- plaincigarettes of 35+mg) .
We can do this by assuring him through a good quality smoke, perhaps
better thanhe was usedto wth a red ucedtar :nlcotine rat io though not
overt lyso . W couple thi s vLth a ' aormal' cigaret te designthat does
not offendthr ough bei ng' too- unconventional , andwe positionthi s
product totake maxi mumadvantage of league t abl es , whi ch are s till
basically-t ar' dri ven
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Wat satisfi es his requiremen t
Wat seems tosatisfy smokers requirements is a device t hat
broadlyinline wth what it claims tobe . Thus, ultra-l owtar, though
indubi tabl ya cigaret te seems onlytobe a saleabl e propositiontoa
minority of customers, who perhaps anyway are a health risk conscious
group . Most recent mark et anal yses by tar g roups or del ivery level s
suggest that any' surge towards lower tar has faded andthat there is a
'backlash" toward 15mg type products . I s uggest that thi s area is wher e
smokers reallywant tobe t oday though t ime maybe a gai nst us mai ntai ning
thi s level- Andwe mayret urntomyoriginal remarks ondrugs andthei r
doses . For a s weet cupof tea we put intwosaccharin not one . For
a bad head ache o r han gover , we t ake t woas pirin not one . I s ugges t
that there i s a paral lel wth ci garet tes - we maysmoke a l owdel ivery
cig aret te - but intimes of tensionor al teredmoodwe want a s tronger
one . Wat hap pens? Ei ther we s moke one more intensivel y(remember ,
there i s nosingle dose fo r a cigaret te) - o r we s moke twoinrapid
succession . Adilemma ap pears - dowe des igna co mpensat abl e ci garet te -
andsel l one - o r the n on(or mnimal ly) co mpensat abl e cigaret te - t o
sell two? Giventhe unit cost, it is very probabl e that the s econd
optionis not viabl e - s owe have perhaps, todothe fi rs t .
Giventhes e considerations, one canpredict that i nanera of
val ue-f or-month, people wll want the "hi ghes t" del ivery for a unit price
(inmost places if not all, lowtar co sts the same as hi gh) . Wether
thi s "hig hest" delivery is tobe the hi ghest available ina market is
unlikel y- it is more l iabl e t obe a "medium" del ivery compensat abl e
product .
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SUMMARY
So- g ive themwhat they seemtowant tas te andval ue . And
always remember that, while King James I issued his famous -Counterblaste
toTobacco-, in1604 it is nicer fromour point of viewtoremember O scar
Wldes words inThe Pi ct ure of Dorian Gray" i n1891
"Acigaret te is the perf ect type of a perf ect pleasure .
It is exquisite andit leaves one unsatisfi ed
can one want" .
What mor e
Let us provide t he e xquisitness, andhope t hat they our consumers ,
continue t oremainunsatisfi ed . All we wouldwant then is a larg er b a g
tocarr ythe moneytothe ba nk