Ryan Lewenza: The Technical Take - March 31, 2014

8/12/2019 Ryan Lewenza: The Technical Take - March 31, 2014

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Report prepared by:

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT

North American Equity Strategist

Inside

Technical Commentary ......................... 2

Relative Strength ................................ 10

Technical Trading Ideas ...................... 14

Sentiment Indicators ........................... 19

Overbought/Oversold Stocks .............. 20

Market Statistics .................................. 21

This Document is for distribution to Canadian

clients only.

Please refer to Appendix A in this report for

important information.

Volume 15 Highlights

The S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) has traded in a narrow

range between 14,200 and 14,400 for nearly one month now. In our

opinion, the S&P/TSX is in this holding pattern because it is: 1)

digesting an impressive 4.8% year-to-date (YTD) gain; and 2

trading at its horizontal price resistance. We continue to believe that

the S&P/TSX will head modestly lower in the short term, possibly

declining to between 13,850 and 14,000.

The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) remains in a long-term upwardchannel, as it continues to make higher highs and higher lows. It istrading above its 50-week simple moving average (MA) and its 65week exponential MA. Finally, the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) linecontinues to trend higher, showing no signs of a divergence withS&P 500 price action. Given these bullish technical trends, wemaintain our constructive long-term outlook for U.S. equities.

The technical outlook for the U.S. financials sector remains bullishwith the sector in a long-term uptrend, and above its rising 50- and200-day MAs. Its relative trend, however, had been trending lowesince August 2012, but this reversed last week, ending its seven-month relative downtrend.

In this weeks report, we highlight Constellation Software Inc(CSU-T), Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T), Bank of America Corp(BAC-N), and Comerica Inc. (CMA-N) as attractive buy candidatesand recommend investors trim/sell Canadian Imperial Bank ofCommerce (CM-T).

Chart of the Week The 2-year Treasury yield surged 10 basispoints following the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on March 19We believe this could signal the beginning of the normalization ofU.S. Fed monetary policy.

March 31, 2014


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The TechnicalTake March 31, 2014

Page 2

Technical Commentary

S&P/TSX Composite Index

This week we are looking at the long-term chart of the S&P/TSX to help explain why the index has been stallingaround the 14,300 level.

The S&P/TSX has traded in a very narrow trading range between 14,200 and 14,400 for nearly one month now. In

our opinion, the S&P/TSX is in this holding pattern because it is: 1) digesting its impressive 4.8% YTD gain; and 2)

trading at its horizontal price resistance, which dates back to the 2007 and 2011 highs (red arrows).

Unlike the U.S. equity markets (excluding the Nasdaq Composite Index), which are trading at new all-time highs

the S&P/TSX remains below its all-time highs, and will continue to encounter stiff technical resistance as it moves

higher. We see 14,330, 14,645, and 15,150 as important resistance levels for the S&P/TSX.

We continue to believe that the S&P/TSX will head modestly lower in the short term, possibly declining to between

13,850 and 14,000, which is the convergence of the 50-day MA and its lower channel line.

If correct in our call for a short-term pull back, we would use the opportunity to increase equity exposure, as the

long-term technical profile for the S&P/TSX remains constructive.


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Canadian Sector Highlights

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX 2739.43 2648.23 Uptrend 2544.05 Uptrend 63.83 Neutral 1 9 6 4 4 7

S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX 3102.72 2987.22 Uptrend 2836.08 Uptrend 74.30 Overbought 2 7 2 6 7 5

S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX 1169.47 1163.21 Uptrend 1117.45 Uptrend 48.84 Neutral 3 10 9 5 5 10

S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX 1531.20 1 503.40 Uptrend 1418.35 Uptrend 53.97 Neutral 4 8 1 1 10 11

S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX 2124.77 2077.55 Uptrend 1973.56 Uptrend 64.44 Neutral 5 4 8 7 8 2

S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX 155.65 154.84 Uptrend 140.35 Uptrend 50.67 Neutral 6 11 4 3 3 6

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 14215.60 14027.66 Uptrend 13180.22 Uptrend 58.97 Neutral 7 5 7 8 6 4

S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX 2031.23 2019.82 Uptrend 1861.77 Uptrend 50.43 Neutral 8 6 10 2 9 9

S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX 1857.56 1831.80 Uptrend 1789.62 Uptrend 52.96 Neutral 9 2 3 9 11 8

S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX 1722.79 1864.71 Downtrend 1516.28 Uptrend 37.90 Neutral 10 3 11 11 1 3

S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX 2269.07 2 345.45 Downtrend 2173.81 Uptrend 41.34 Neutral 11 1 5 10 2 1

Ranking of Weekly Momentum

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. March 25, 2014.

Weekly Momentum:

The energy sector climbed to the second spot last week in our sector rankings, continuing its trend of improved

performance. See additional comments on the following page.

The materials sector declined to the last spot in our sector rankings, driven largely by weakness in gold miners

Following a strong January/February period, the sector weakened in March, as it worked off its overbought technica

condition, and spot gold prices retraced some of their recent gains.

The health care sector has also been weak in recent weeks, largely driven by weakness in Valeant Pharmaceuticals

Inc. (VRX-T). VRX is approaching an oversold technical condition, which could set up a short-term bounce in the

stock. However, VRX has declined through its 50-day MA, and if the stock is unable to reclaim this important MA,

we would become more cautious on the stock.

Market Condition:

Following its strong gains, the energy sector is now technically overbought and could result in some short-term

backing and filling. All other sectors are neutrally ranked.

Other:

The health care and materials sectors have declined through their 50-day MAs on recent weakness.


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S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index

In the October 7, 2013 edition of The Technical Take, we highlighted the improving technical profile of the S&P/TSX

Capped Energy Index, stating that given the sectors recent price breakout and continued improving relative t rends

we are growing more bullish on the sector .

In recent days, the sector has broken above its long-term relative downtrend (lower panel), with the sector

beginning to outperform the broader market.

With the sector exhibiting positive price and relative technical trends, we have become more constructive on the

sector, and see it potentially outperforming the broader market in the months ahead.

In the short term, the sector is overbought and could encounter some profit taking. We would use any weakness to

increase exposure in the sector. Stocks we like technically include: 1)Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T)

and2)Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T).


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Page 5

S&P 500 Index

Many investors often focus on short-term trends and miss seeing the proverbial forest for the trees. Looking at the long-term weekly chart of the S&P 500, we note that it remains in a long-term upward channel

continuously making higher highs and higher lows. Additionally, it is trading above its rising 50-week simple MA and its 65-week exponential MA, which we use to help

define the long-term trend. Finally, the NYSE Advance/Decline line continues to trend higher (lower panel), making new highs, and showing no

signs of a divergence with S&P 500 price action. Given these bullish technical trends, we maintain our constructive long-term outlook for U.S. equities.


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U.S. Sector Highlights

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX 153.20 148.14 Uptrend 153.25 Downtrend 66.27 Neutral 1 3 8 10 5 8

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX 300.06 292.00 Uptrend 280.30 Uptrend 62.59 Neutral 2 10 1 7 11 11

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX 594.68 586.46 Uptrend 544.12 Uptrend 57.61 Neutral 3 8 7 9 9 4

S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX 295.62 289.83 Uptrend 272.22 Uptrend 57.25 Neutral 4 6 3 2 4 3

S&P 500 INDEX 1861.37 1832.99 Uptrend 1745.58 Uptrend 55.08 Neutral 5 7 4 5 7 5

S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX 640.74 628.34 Uptrend 617.95 Uptrend 58.11 Neutral 6 4 9 4 3 6

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX 445.80 442.01 Uptrend 415.14 Uptrend 53.76 Neutral 7 11 2 6 8 9

S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX 439.29 429.87 Uptrend 426.76 Uptrend 60.63 Neutral 8 2 6 3 10 7

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX 675.24 669.01 Uptrend 615.44 Uptrend 45.53 Neutral 9 5 10 8 1 2

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX 510.70 516.12 Downtrend 492.28 Uptrend 39.05 Neutral 10 9 5 1 6 10

S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX 206.62 200.46 Uptrend 194.85 Uptrend 62.45 Neutral 11 1 11 11 2 1

Ranking of Weekly Momentum

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of March 25, 2014.

Weekly Momentum:

The telecom sector jumped to the top spot in our sector rankings last week, mostly driven by gains in AT&T Inc. (T

N), which rallied roughly 5%.

The financials sector also improved last week, likely on the heels of the Fed signalling that they could increase

interest rates sooner than expected, which would help net interest margins for U.S. financial institutions.

The information technology sector also performed well last week, driven by large-cap tech giants like Microsoft

Corp. (MSFT-Q), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM-Q), and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ-N).

The consumer discretionary sector continues to lag the broader market, hovering near the bottom of our sector

rankings during three of the last six weeks.

The utilities sector fell to the last spot in our sector rankings, likely as a result of increasing U.S. government bond

yields.

Market Condition:

All sectors are neutrally ranked, with RSI levels between 30 and 70.

Other:

As a result of recent weakness, the consumer discretionary sector is now trading below its 50-day MA. All othe

sectors are above their respective 50-day MAs.


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S&P 500 Financials Sector Index

The technical outlook for the U.S. financials sector remains bullish with the sector in a long-term uptrend, and aboveits rising 50- and 200-day MAs.

Its relative trend, however, had been trending lower since August 2012, but this reversed last week (lower panel)ending its seven-month relative downtrend.

With the sector in a long-term price uptrend and improving relative trends, we recommend investors overweight thesector in portfolios.


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Intermarket Picture

Euro/U.S. Dollar Four little words is all it took to turn the floundering euro around. In July 2012, with the European

equity markets and the euro under extreme selling pressure, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi,

stated that they would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Apparently, investors took him seriously; the euro

bottomed following the announcement and rallied roughly 15% versus the U.S. dollar since then. However, with inflation

near 1%, some ECB officials are signalling a potential implementation of their own version of Quantitative Easing (QE). If

they do implement QE, we believe it could lead to a weaker euro and possibly end its 19-month bull run. A break below

1.35/US$1, concurrent with a round of QE, would likely turn us bearish on the euro.

U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield broke out of a triangle formation following the Federa

Reserves March meeting, where the Chair, Janet Yellan, signalled that the Fed could begin to increase interest rates six

months after the unwinding of QE3, or roughly in the spring of 2015. This potential date is earlier than the market had

priced in, resulting in U.S. Treasury yields moving higher on the news. We continue to believe Treasury yields will grind

higher in the months ahead, with this announcement be ing the beginning of the Feds normalization of U.S. monetary

policy.


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Copper Copper prices remain under pressure, and recently broke through an important support level. We believe the

recent weakness in copper prices can in part be explained by the continued weakness in the Chinese economy and stock

market. In the lower panel, we illustrate the high, positive correlation between copper prices and the performance of

Chinese equities. While correlation ebbs and flows over time, it is generally very positive, and therefore, we believe

copper prices will remain weak until we see a definitive stabilization in Chinese equities.

Gold As expected, gold prices have pulled back recently as a result of the precious metal becoming technically

overbought and trading at an important resistance level around of US$1,360/oz. Gold spot price is now at an importan

support level around US$1,300/oz., which is the convergence of the 50- and 200-day MAs (green arrow). This price

should it hold, would be bullish for the precious metal. Stepping back, we believe the gold price will remain range-bound

between US$1,180/oz. and US$1,430/oz. in the months ahead.


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Relative Strength Analysis

S&P 500

0.30

0.32

0.33

Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.232

0.264

0.297

Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.274

0.284

0.294


S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.30

0.33

0.37


S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.24

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.17

0.20


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.16

0.16


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.34

0.35

0.37


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.34

0.40

0.46


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

Cyclicals

28SEP13 - 28MAR1428MAR11 - 28MAR14

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at March 27, 2014

The long- and short

term relat ive trend f

the informat ion

technology sector

remains bul l ish.

The industr ia ls

sectors short-term

trend remains w eak

The consu mer

discret ionary secto

long-term uptrend i

under pressure. I ts

sho rt-term relat ive

t rend is negat ive.

The materials

sectors long-term

downt rend was

bro ken in Q1/14.

The sectors shor t -

term trend remains

bul l ish.

The energy sectorremains in a long-

term relat ive

downtrend.

We prefer the

Canadian energy

sector over th e U.S

counterpart .


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Page 11

0.23

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.14

0.15

0.17


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.29

0.34

0.38


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.08

0.10

0.12


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.10

0.13

0.16


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.23

0.24

0.26


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.16

0.16

0.17


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.36

0.38


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.08

0.09

0.09


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.10

0.11

0.12


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

28MAR11 - 28MAR14 28SEP13 - 28MAR14

Defensives


The consu mer

staples sector is

t rading in a long- a

short - term relativedowntrend.

The f inancials

sectors long-term

trend has improve

See page 7 for

addit ional comm e

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

Weakness in the

biotech sector has

led to weakness in

the sh ort - term tren

The telecom secto

t rading in a long-t

relative do wntrend

The sectors short

term trend has

improv ed. Watchin

for fol low through

The ut i l i t ies secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive

downtrend.

On a sho rt - term

basis, the sector h

show n strength.


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S&P/TSX Composite

0.01

0.01

0.01


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.071

0.093

0.114


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.104

0.108

0.113


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.01

0.01

0.02


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.14

0.14

0.15


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.10

0.13

0.16


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.15

0.24

0.34


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.15

0.16

0.18


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.22

0.22


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.23

0.25


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

Cyclicals

28SEP13 - 28MAR1428MAR11 - 28MAR14


The consumer

discret ionary sec

remains in a long

term relat ive uptre

I ts short - term tren

neutral.

The informat ion

technology secto

longer- term trend

cont inu es to impr

The industr ia l

sectors long-term

trend is con struct

but is stal l ing on

short - term basis.

The mater ia ls sec

broke above its lo

term downtrend.

The sectors shor

term trend is wea

lower gold min ers

The energy secto

broke its long-ter

downtrend.

The sectors shor

term relat ive tren

are strong for the

sector.


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Page 13

0.12

0.17

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.12

0.14

0.16


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.05

0.10

0.14


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.06

0.08

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.18


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.19

0.19

0.20


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.15

0.15

0.16


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.10

0.12

0.14


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.08

0.09

0.09


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.13

0.14


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

28MAR11 - 28MAR14 28SEP13 - 28MAR14

Defensives


The consumer

staples sectors loand sho rt - term

relat ive trends are

under p ressure.

The ut i l i t ies secto

cont inu es to mak

new relat ive lows

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

The sectors shor

term trend is unde

pressure.

The telecom secto

long-term relat ive

t rend is neutral .

The sector is in a

short - term relativ

downtrend.

The f inancial sect

remains in a long

term relat ive uptre

The sector appea

be basing in the s

term, fol lowing

weakness in ear ly

January.


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Technical Trading Ideas

Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T)Published March 14, 2014

We are highlighting the technical breakout of Constellation Software Inc. from our breakout/breakdown model*. CSU is trading in a well-defined uptrend, and is above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. The 50-day MA in particula

has been providing strong technical support on short-term pull backs. Additionally, CSUs relative strength is veryimpressive, as the stock continues to outperform the broader market.

Despite the strong gains in CSU, the technicals remain very bullish for the stock, and with the breakout to new highswe believe the stock can continue to trend higher.

We would employ a stop loss of $219, which is just below the stocks February low and 50 -day MA.

NOTE*: Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Page 15

Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) Published March 17, 2014

Precision Drilling Corp. has pulled back in recent days, which has helped to work off its overbought technicacondition.

PD is trading in a long-term upward channel as it continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The stock istrading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. PD broke above technical resistance at $11 in February, and with therecent pull back is approaching that level, which could now provide possible technical support. Additionally, it isapproaching its 50-day MA, which also could provide support.

We would look to buy PD on this weakness with the stock in a solid uptrend and approaching good technical supportWe would employ a stop loss at $10, which is just below its uptrend and its 200-day MA.


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Page 16

Bank of America Corp. (BAC-N) Published March 19, 2014

We highlighted Bank of America Corp.s (BAC-N) attractive technical profile on September 9, 2013, and the stockhas advanced 20% since then. We are reiterating our bullish stance on the stock based on its strong technicalprofile.

BAC is trading in a well-defined upward channel, and above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. It is adhering well to its50-day MA, which continues to provide technical support, and is a sign of technical strength. BACs relative trendsremain positive, as the stock continues to outperform the broader market. Finally, volume continues to expand withBACs rising price trend, as captured by its rising On Balance Volume indicator.

Despite BACs recent strength, we believe the stock can advance further, and are targeting the $19 to $20 rangeWe would employ a stop loss of $14.90, which is just below its 200-day MA and its December 2013 lows.


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Comerica Inc. (CMA-N) Published March 21, 2014

We are highlighting the technical breakout of U.S. bank Comerica Inc. from our breakout/breakdown model*. CMA has been in an uptrend for the past year and a half. It is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs, and is

showing strong relative strength, as it continues to outperform the broader market (lower panel). CMA made a newprice high this week, with the breakout being on heavy trading volume, which is a bullish technical confirmation.

With the recent breakout, the stock is technically overbought in the short term with a Relative Strength Index readingof 74.55. As such, it could encounter some backing and filling, but we would use any weakness to accumulate thestock, given its bullish technical profile. A stop loss of $45 should be employed.

NOTE*: Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) Published March 26, 2014

The Canadian financials sector remains one of our preferred sectors for 2014. However, some financial stocks aretechnically overbought and susceptible to short-term weakness. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce stands out onthis front, and we see the potential for stock to pull back 5-6% in the coming weeks.

CM has rallied 13% since its February lows and has become technically overbought with a Relative Strength Index(RSI) reading of 74.64 (over 70 indicates overbought). Additionally, we note that momentum looks to be weakeningwith the MACD indicator possibly registering a sell signal, while the RSI is exhibiting a momentum divergence, withthe RSI indicator trending lower.

We believe CM could pull back in the short term, possibly to $90.80, which is the intersection of the uptrend and 50day MA. Short-term traders may want to consider selling in advance of this expected pull back.


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Sentiment Indicators

Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago13.78 14.00 12.46 0.90 0.81 0.67

Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago

Bulls 31.16 39.69 55.06 Bulls 54.70 53.50 59.60

Bears 28.61 21.13 18.54 Bears 17.50 17.20 14.10 Bulls - Bears 2.55 18.56 36.52 37.20 36.30 45.50

VIX CBOE Put/Call

Bulls - Bears

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13

Individual Investor Sentiment:Bulls Minus Bears

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13

Advisor Sentiment:Bulls Minus Bears

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

Volatility (VIX) Index

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio 5-Day MA



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Overbought/Oversold Stocks

S&P 500

Most Overbought Most OversoldName RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

TYSON FOODS INC-CL A 76.87 NETFLIX INC 22.33

NRG ENERGY INC 75.18 FAMILY DOLLAR STORES 23.20

AT&T INC 74.72 TIFFANY & CO 27.32

FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS CORP 74.65 INTL GAME TECHNOLOGY 28.37

EXELON CORP 74.64 AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP 28.46

BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC 73.35 GOOGLE INC-CL A 29.54

QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC 72.99 MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC 30.14

NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO 72.31 AMAZON.COM INC 30.17

MCCORMICK & CO-NON VTG SHRS 72.00 CA INC 30.34

ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INC 71.32 MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL INC 30.41

CENTURYLINK INC 71.26 STAPLES INC 30.68

BEAM INC 71.12 PRICELINE.COM INC 31.05

CORNING INC 70.97 GILEAD SCIENCES INC 31.24FIRSTENERGY CORP 70.54 PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO 31.62

SCHLUMBERGER LTD 70.26 WYNN RESORTS LTD 31.74


S&P/TSX Composite

Most Overbought Most Oversold

Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

VERMILION ENERGY INC 79.58 DUNDEE CORP -CL A 16.24

CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD 78.30 NIKO RESOURCES LTD 17.13

ADVANTAGE OIL & GAS LTD 76.24 WESTPORT INNOVATIONS INC 23.28

BLACK DIAMOND GROUP LTD 74.13 KINROSS GOLD CORP 23.74

PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP 73.79 SILVERCORP METALS INC 28.16

BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY LTD 73.78 NEW GOLD INC 28.32

MEG ENERGY CORP 72.99 ELDORADO GOLD CORP 28.83

PACIFIC RUBIALES ENERGY CORP 72.36 CANFOR CORP 29.36

CENOVUS ENERGY INC 71.80 MARTINREA INTERNATIONAL INC 30.24

ENCANA CORP 71.62 YAMANA GOLD INC 30.86

PRECISION DRILLING CORP 71.60 NORTHERN PROPERTY REAL ESTAT 30.96

ALTAGAS LTD 71.25 BARRICK GOLD CORP 31.40

NORTHLAND POWER INC 70.93 VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS INTE 32.21

QUEBECOR INC -CL B 70.50 WAJAX CORP 32.87

LEGACY OIL + GAS INC 70.07 THOMPSON CREEK METALS CO INC 32.91



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Market Statistics

Region Index Last 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

U.S. S&P 500 1852.56 -1.23 -0.56 0.41 0.04 17.83 12.17 17.78

Dow Jones Industrial Average 16268.99 -0.41 -0.35 -1.30 -1.88 11.56 10.07 15.90

Dow Jones Transportation 7429.54 -1.74 0.86 0.81 0.15 18.48 12.33 21.68Dow Jones Utilities 522.00 1.65 1.37 7.78 7.20 3.44 9.00 9.68

Nasdaq Composite 4173.58 -3.89 -3.64 -0.13 -0.61 27.05 14.98 21.85

Russell 2000 1155.49 -3.96 -2.67 -0.83 -1.05 21.01 11.90 21.83

Russell 1000 Value 937.65 -0.47 0.76 1.26 0.98 17.06 11.91 17.80

Russell 1000 Growth 861.55 -2.29 -2.36 0.01 -0.52 19.69 12.79 18.98

Canada S&P/TSX Composite 14184.10 -1.27 -0.22 4.35 4.09 11.21 0.68 9.96

S&P/TSX 60 811.65 -1.28 -0.20 3.70 3.56 10.98 0.61 8.68

S&P/TSX Smallcap 645.76 -1.69 -1.42 6.40 5.74 10.41 -5.72 12.79

S&P/TSX Venture 985.35 -4.78 -3.90 7.22 5.73 -10.34 -24.41 0.50

International DAX 9451.21 1.89 -1.78 -0.73 -0.16 22.12 11.12 17.76FTSE 100 6588.32 0.50 -3.22 -2.38 -2.28 2.78 3.73 11.07

Nikkei 225 14622.89 3.32 -0.98 -9.17 -9.79 19.13 15.74 11.24

Hang Seng 21834.45 2.93 -3.38 -5.07 -5.32 -1.05 -1.47 9.34

Shanghai 2046.59 -0.29 -0.71 -2.83 -3.51 -8.70 -11.88 -2.97

MSCI World 1654.34 -0.02 -1.33 -0.06 -0.48 15.23 7.75 14.92

MSCI EAFE 1892.99 1.31 -2.22 -0.79 -1.19 13.03 3.81 11.80

MSCI Emerging Markets 968.23 3.21 0.92 -2.23 -2.73 -5.55 -5.02 10.53

S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Discretionary 508.44 -3.51 -4.30 -3.78 -4.53 20.42 18.58 26.08

Comsumer Staples 438.46 0.21 0.90 -0.88 -1.12 6.63 12.63 14.32

Energy 639.49 1.52 1.04 -0.92 -1.02 10.45 3.56 12.81

Financials 298.79 -1.72 1.71 1.07 0.80 21.05 10.63 19.26

Health care 672.05 -2.20 -2.22 4.63 4.50 25.83 21.09 18.81

Industrials 443.49 -0.46 -0.97 -1.70 -2.13 22.36 11.34 21.32

Information Technology 592.33 -2.00 -1.08 1.16 0.55 21.80 12.33 19.33

Materials 294.38 -1.59 -1.12 0.87 0.57 18.50 6.41 16.16

Telecommunications 152.42 1.80 4.54 -0.88 -0.85 -2.41 5.97 7.93

Utilities 206.50 1.80 1.85 8.26 7.71 4.74 9.38 9.72

S&P/TSX Sectors Consumer Discretionary 1529.64 -1.38 1.38 2.47 2.36 27.76 12.78 15.40

Comsumer Staples 2736.02 -0.29 1.73 7.47 6.72 23.17 17.26 14.94

Energy 3099.07 0.84 3.05 7.22 6.95 13.67 -2.39 7.89

Financials 2121.86 -0.57 0.74 1.51 1.09 16.68 5.96 14.79Health care 1733.51 -9.65 -9.26 11.24 9.52 53.24 36.03 46.44

Industrials 2024.47 -2.42 -2.50 -0.29 -0.14 18.52 13.75 19.45

Information Technology 153.89 -3.58 -4.11 5.74 5.90 23.04 -12.76 -5.27

Materials 2249.03 -4.86 -6.18 8.60 8.84 -15.38 -17.10 -1.56

Telecommunications 1167.04 -0.14 0.09 2.02 1.98 -0.21 11.16 12.15

Utilities 1857.82 0.41 2.90 6.75 6.46 -1.99 -0.13 7.25Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of March 27, 2014.


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Page 22

Appendix A Important Disclosures

General Research Disclosure

The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or

complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any

investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each

individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance.This document does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax

advisor. All opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its

affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.

TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including

options, futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons

or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.

Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at

https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/welcome.important.disclosure.action

Company Ticker Disclosures

Constellation Software Inc. CSU-T N/A

Precision Drilling Corp. PD-T 2,4,9

Bank of America Corp. BAC-N N/A

Comerica Inc. CMA-N N/A

Canadian Imperial Bank of

CommerceCM-T 9,10

1. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities

within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company.

2. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has received compensation for investment banking services

within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company.

3. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company expects to receive compensation for investment banking

services within the next three months with respect to the subject company.4. TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to

the subject company.

5. A long position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research anal ysts

household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control.

6. A short position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research ana lysts

household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control.

7. A long position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research

analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control.

8. A short position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research

analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control.

9. TD Securities Inc. and/or an affiliated company is a market maker, or is associated with the specialist that makes a market, in the

securities of the subject company.

10. TD Securities Inc. and/or affiliated companies own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company.11. A partner, director or officer of TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC, or a research analyst involved in the preparation of

this report has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration.

12. Subordinate voting shares.

13. Restricted voting shares.

14. Non-voting shares.

15. Common/variable voting shares.

16. Limited voting shares.


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Technical Research Disclosure

The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamenta

research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker.

The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely

direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.

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securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,

related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Conflicts of Interest

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services, however TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. does not compensate its analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.

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Documents

Ryan Lewenza: The Technical Take - March 31, 2014