Ryan Lewenza: TD Wealth 2014 Technical Outlook

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  • 8/13/2019 Ryan Lewenza: TD Wealth 2014 Technical Outlook

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    Report prepared by:

    Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT

    Table of Contents:

    Market Cycles ....................................... 2

    U.S. Equity Outlook .............................. 5

    U.S. Sector Recommendations ............ 7

    Canadian Equity Outlook ...................... 9

    Canadian Sector Recommendations .. 10

    International Equity Outlook ............... 12

    Intermarket Picture ............................. 14

    U.S. Stock Recommendations............ 18

    Canadian Stock Recommendations ... 20

    This Document is for distribution to Canadian clients

    only.

    Please refer to Appendix A in this report for

    important information.

    2014 Technical Outlook

    The technical profile for the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) remains very bullish, in our opinion. The S&P 500 has

    been in a long-term uptrend since its 2009 lows, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. We

    believe the S&P 500 is poised to move higher in 2014; however, we see the potential for a pullback in H1/14,

    before entering the seasonally strong Q4.

    From a cycle perspective, both the four-year cycle low and Presidential Cycle are forecasting modest gainsthis year. From a secular perspective, we believe the 13-year bear cycle for the U.S. equity markets could be

    over. If we are correct, the U.S. stock market could post above-average returns in the years ahead.

    Preferred U.S. sectors include the industrials and health care. At risk sectors include telecommunications

    and utilities.

    We believe the Federal Reserves (Fed) tapering of its asset purchases will lead to a stronger U.S. dollar

    and higher long-term bond yields. The stronger U.S. dollar could provide a headwind to commodity prices.

    The S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) broke above key resistance at 12,900, potentially opening the

    door to more upside in 2014. However, we see headwinds for commodity prices and with the resource

    sectors (materials and energy) representing roughly 40% of the S&P/TSX, upside for the index could becapped around 14,300-14,600 in 2014.

    Preferred Canadian sectors include industrials and financial services. At risk sectors include the utilities and

    telecommunications.

    The emerging markets continue to struggle and underperform relative to the developed markets. We believe

    emerging markets will remain range-bound and underperform the developed markets in 2014.

    U.S. stock recommendations include Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN-Q), Honeywell International

    (HON-N), CSX Corp. (CSX-N), andMedtronic Corp. (MDT-N). Canadian stock recommendations include

    Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T), Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T), Davis + Henderson Corp. (DH-T) andAecon Group Inc. (ARE-T).

    January 16, 2014

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    Technical Outlook January 16, 2014

    Page 2

    10

    100

    1000

    10000

    100000

    '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 '34 '39 '44 '49 '54 '59 '64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09

    Dow Jones Industrial Averagelog scale

    The DJIA broke out of its 13year range, thus potentially

    ending its secular bear market.

    Market Cycles

    I. Long-Term (Secular) View

    Equities tend to trade in long-term (secular) bull and bear

    cycles, lasting on average 14-15 years.

    Since the 2000 market peak, the U.S. equity market has been in

    a secular bear market, with both the Dow Jones Industrial

    Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 range-bound and essentially

    unchanged.

    In 2013 the DJIA and S&P 500 broke out of their long-term

    trading ranges and made new all-time highs.

    We believe the break above key long-term resistance levels

    could mark the end of the 13-year secular bear market and the

    beginning of the next secular bull market. If we are correct, the

    stock market could post above-average returns in the years

    ahead.

    The pushback on this thesis is that historically, secular bear

    markets have ended with single-digit P/E ratios. For example,the S&P 500 P/E troughed at 7x in the late 1970s versus the

    trough of 10x in 2009. From our perspective, the 10x P/E trough

    in 2009 was close enough, and we prefer to focus on price, withthe U.S. equity markets clearly breaking out of their 13-year

    trading range.

    Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of January 3, 2014

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    100

    10000

    '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10

    Dow Jones Industrial Average

    log scale

    ?

    II. Four-Year Cycle Low

    Another market cycle we track is the four-year cycle low, which

    captures the tendency of the U.S. stock market to decline and

    put in a low roughly every four years.

    This fairly consistent pattern was identified by Charles Dow,

    founder of the Wall Street Journal, when he referenced the

    existence of the market cycle in 1900 stating, we have

    frequently demonstrated that the stock market, while full of short

    fluctuations, has a continuing main movement, which often runs

    in one direction for three or four years at a time.

    The four-year cycle low is largely driven by the business cycle,

    which captures the ebbs and flows of the U.S. economy.

    In the accompanying chart we illustrate this market pattern, witharrows indicating the cycle lows. It is important to emphasize

    that: 1) the lows do not occur exactly every four years, asnothing, especially the stock market, is that predictable; and 2)

    there are occasions, notably 1986 and 2006, when the cycle

    was delayed, with the correction occurring 1-2 years later than

    anticipated.

    This cycle low is projected to occur in 2014, so it is possible the

    equity markets could experience a pullback (i.e., 5-10%)sometime this year.

    However, as outlined in the following pages, we would view thisas a buying opportunity.

    Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of January 3, 2014

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    6.35.3

    16.1

    6.1

    15.4

    3.0

    15.2

    10.2

    -1.8

    7.4

    17.0

    2.6

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

    S&P 500 Y/Y % Chg Based on Presidential Term

    All Presidents

    Democrats

    Republicans

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

    Stylized Presidential Four-Year Cycle

    Year 1 Year 2

    We're here!

    Year 3 Year 4

    III. Presidential Cycle

    Finally, we also monitor the Presidential Cycle, which captures

    the tendency for the stock market to perform poorly in the earlyyears of a Presidential term and stronger in the later years of

    the term.

    The rationale behind this phenomenon is that the President andhis party implement policies to boost the economy in an effort to

    secure re-election.

    While some dispute this theory, largely on the belief that

    markets are efficient and therefore not susceptible to recurring

    trends, we believe it has some merit, as statistical evidence

    seems to support the thesis.

    As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the stock market tends

    to underperform during the second year of the Presidential term,

    with average gains of 5.3%, which is below the long-term

    annual average return of 7.5%, and the lowest return over the

    four-year Presidential Cycle. Moreover, for the period studied,

    the market has experienced a positive return 53% of the time in

    the second year of the Presidential term, which is the lowest

    level of occurrences of positive returns over the full cycle.

    In the second chart we illustrate the typical or stylized return

    pathway over the four-year Presidential Cycle.

    Typically year 2 begins strong before declining into the fall andthen rallying in Q4.

    Interestingly, this is our expected path for the equity markets in

    2014.

    Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of January 3, 2014

    Period is 1945-2013

    Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of January 3, 2014Period is 1945-2012

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    U.S. Equity Outlook

    S&P 500 Index

    The technical profile for the S&P 500 remains very bullish, in our

    opinion. The S&P 500 has been in a long-term uptrend since its2009 lows, consistently making higher highs and higher lows.

    This uptrend is captured by the bullish upward channel as

    defined by the blue dotted lines. The S&P 500 is trading above

    its rising 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and its 65-

    week exponential MA (EMA), which provide additional signs of

    technical strength. These MAs have proven to be important

    support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 over the years.

    We believe the S&P 500 is poised to move higher in 2014;

    however, we see the potential for a pullback in H1/14, before

    entering the seasonally strong Q4.

    Our call for a pullback in H1/14 is predicated on the following: 1)

    from an Elliot Wave perspective, we believe the S&P 500 is

    currently in a primary Wave 3, which if correct, could result in a

    Wave 4 pullback; 2) investor sentiment remains heavily skewedto the bullish side, which from a contrarian perspective could

    precipitate a pullback; 3) the S&P 500 is technically overboughton a weekly basis; and 4) the U.S. Federal Reserve announced

    that it will begin tapering its asset purchases in January, and

    there could be an increase in volatility around this event.

    Although we could see a pullback in the coming months, we

    would view this as a buying opportunity as we expect the S&P

    500 to hold above its rising 50-week SMA and 65-week EMA.

    Following the expected pullback, we believe the S&P 500 could

    ultimately rally to new highs and are targeting 1,900-1,950. This

    range is the convergence of resistance levels from the upward

    channel off the November 2012 low and an Andrews Pitchfork

    channel.

    Key levels on the downside that could cause us to re-evaluate

    our bullish stance are a break below key weekly MAs (currently

    around 1,650) and 1,575, which was resistance in 2007 but has

    become support.

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    NYSE Advance/Decline Line

    Supporting our constructive stance are two observations. First,

    the NYSE Advance-Decline (A/D) line continues to make new

    highs, thus confirming the new price highs on the major U.S.

    equity indices. The A/D line captures the cumulative sum total of the advancers

    less decliners. Essentially it captures market breath, and often isa leading indicator of the U.S. stock market.

    The A/D line is making new highs which reflects the broad

    participation in the equity market and is a sign of market

    strength.

    The A/D line tends to peak before the stock market, and we are

    watching it closely. At present, it remains bullish and supportive

    for the stock market.

    Dow Theory

    Another bullish technical confirmation is the Dow Theory buy

    signal that was registered in December 2013.

    The recent new high on the Dow Transports confirms the new

    highs on the Industrials, which according to Dow Theory is abuy signal for the U.S. equity market, and a sign of market

    strength.

    According to Dow Theory, the market remains in a primary

    uptrend with no signs of a divergence.

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    U.S. Sector Recommendations (Preferred)

    S&P 500 Industrials Sector Index

    The technical profile for the S&P 500 Industrials sector remainspositive. The sector is trading in a well-defined upward channel

    and continues to be supported by its rising 50-day MA. On a

    relative basis it broke to new highs in 2013 and continues totrend higher.

    With a supportive macro backdrop, and a constructive technical

    profile, the U.S. industrials sector looks set to outperform in2014.

    S&P 500 Healthcare Sector Index

    Despite the U.S. healthcare sectors very strong performance in

    2013 (up 38.7%), the technical profile remains bullish and we

    see it outperforming in 2014.

    The sector is trading in a well-defined upward channel, is above

    its rising 50- and 200- day MAs and is exhibiting strong relativeperformance. In addition, with it trading at new all-time highs, the

    healthcare sector will not have to contend with overhead

    technical resistance as it moves higher.

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    U.S. Sector Recommendations (At Risk)

    S&P 500 Telecommunications Sector Index

    In 2013 we adopted a cautious stance with respect to the U.S.telecommunications sector, which given the sectors poorrelative performance proved to be the correct call. We remain

    cautious on the sector and expect continued underperformance.

    The sector is in a long-term price uptrend. However, it is forming

    a triangle pattern and quickly approaching the apex. We expect

    this technical pattern to be resolved soon, likely to the downside.

    Other negatives include: 1) the sector has been encounteringresistance at its 50-day MA in recent months; 2) there is a

    potential long-term head and shoulders top forming; and 3) the

    sectors relative strength remains weakand it has been making

    new relative lows (red circle).

    S&P 500 Utilities Sector Index

    We also expect the U.S. utilities sector to underperform in 2014.

    The sector remains in an intermediate downtrend and iscurrently finding resistance at its 50-day MA. Moreover, on a

    relative strength basis, the sector remains in a confirmeddowntrend. We recommend an underweight in the sector.

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    Canadian Equity Outlook

    S&P/TSX Composite Index

    The S&P/TSX recently broke above a key resistance level,potentially opening the door to more upside in 2014.

    12,900 has been a key resistance level for the S&P/TSX over

    the last two years and it broke above this in Q4/13.

    More importantly, it subsequently broke above its long-term

    downtrend (green circle), with next resistance at the 14,300

    level. The break above the downtrend completes a large triangle

    formation. With triangles typically continuation patterns, this

    breakout points to further upside.

    However, we see headwinds to commodity prices, and with theresource sectors (materials and energy) representing roughly

    40% of the S&P/TSX, upside for the index could be capped at14,300-14,600 in 2014.

    On the downside, a break below the 12,775-12,900 range would

    likely cause us to re-evaluate our upside technical target. 12,900

    represents previous resistance, which is now support and

    12,775 is the 200-day MA. Additionally, the 50-week SMA and

    65-week EMA are around 12,800. Therefore, we consider the

    12,775-12,900 range to be critical and it needs to hold on any

    short-term weakness.

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    Canadian Sector Recommendations (Preferred)

    S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index

    We are reaffirming our bullish outlook for Canadian industrials.

    The sector remains in a long-term uptrend, is trading above itsrising 50-day MA, and is exhibiting good relative strength.

    It outperformed in 2013 and we believe this could happen again

    in 2014.

    S&P/TSX Capped Financial Services Index

    Our technical outlook for the Canadian financials sector is also

    constructive. It is trading in a well-defined upward channel,continues to move higher with its rising 50-day MA, and is

    outperforming the broader market.

    Recently, there have been some notable short-term trend breaksamong the Canadian banks, which could be foreshadowing

    short-term weakness. However, the long-term trend remainsconstructive and we would view any short-term weakness as a

    buying opportunity.

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    Canadian Sector Recommendations (At Risk)

    S&P/TSX Utilities Capped Index

    Similar to our U.S. sector recommendations, we remain cautiouson the Canadian interest-sensitive sectors.

    The Canadian utilities sector continues to trade in a downward

    channel and is showing weak relative strength.

    The sector has rallied from its September lows and is findingresistance at its upper channel line and the 50-day MA. There isalso stiff resistance in the 210-215 range. Given the confluenceof resistance levels and continued weak relative strength, werecommend investors underweight the sector in portfolios.

    S&P/TSX Capped Telecommunication Services Index

    We also expect the Canadian telecommunications sector to

    underperform in 2014.

    The sectors long-term uptrend was broken in June 2013, on

    concerns of increased competition. Although the sector hasrecovered most of its losses from the summer, it is now

    approaching significant overhead resistance in the 120-122.5

    range.

    Its relative strength remains in a downtrend, capturing its trend

    of underperformance since April 2013.

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    International Equity Outlook

    Vanguard European ETF

    European equities, as measured by the Vanguard EuropeanETF (VGK-N), posted strong gains in 2013, but are quickly

    approaching significant technical resistance, which should leadto a pause in the uptrend.

    Using VGK as a proxy for Europe, the ETF is trading in a solid

    uptrend, but is quickly approaching stiff resistance at $60 to $65.

    This resistance dates back to its 2007 highs, which we suspect

    will lead to some consolidation in the coming months.

    Positive technical observations include: 1) volume increased

    significantly in H2/13, which reflects the strong positive funds

    flows; 2) the ETF is exhibiting strong momentum; and 3) is

    trading above its rising 50-week SMA and its 65-week EMA. Negative technical observations include: 1) it remains in a long-

    term relative downtrend versus the S&P 500; and 2) the stiff

    technical resistance in the $60 to $65 region.

    Overall, we see further gains for European equities, but upside

    could be muted, given the overhead resistance.

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    iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

    The emerging markets continue to struggle and underperform

    relative to developed equity markets.

    Using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM-N) as a

    proxy for emerging markets equities, the ETF has been range-

    bound between roughly $35 and $44 over the last two years.

    The weak technical profile leads us to believe that emerging

    markets will continue to lag developed equity markets based on:

    1) EEM remains range-bound, with stiff resistance up to $47.50;

    2) momentum remains weak; and 3) it remains in a clear relative

    downtrend versus the S&P 500.

    Overall, we believe EEM will remain range-bound. For traders,

    an attractive entry point for EEM is $35.50.

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    Intermarket Picture

    I. Interest Rates

    We see the potential for long-term bond yields to move higher

    this year, but expect the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield to

    be capped in the 3.5% to 3.9% range.

    This view is predicated on three key factors. First, the

    components of the nominal 10-year bond yield (real yield andinflation) should remain contained as U.S. GDP growth remains

    subdued, and inflation remains muted. Second, the long-term

    trendline comes in around 3.8%, which should provide stiff

    resistance. Finally, with the short-end of the curve likely to stay

    fixed at very low levels through 2014, the long-end of the curvecan only move up so much, based on the historical relationship

    between the long and short ends of the yield curve. In the lower

    panel we chart the yield curve (2s and 10s) and note that the

    spread has historically peaked in the 2.5% to 3% range.

    Therefore, assuming this relationship holds, the 10-year bond

    yield can only move so high, with the short-end of the curve

    remaining fixed.

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    II. Currencies

    U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. dollar was up modestly in 2013, but was essentially flat

    over the last two years. We expect it to grind higher in 2014, on the back of the Feds

    taper of its asset purchases.

    We believe it will retest its 2013 highs around the 84 level, and

    possibly break above this level in 2014.

    On the downside the U.S. dollar needs to hold the Q4/13 low of79.26 to maintain its bullish technical profile. A break below this

    level could signify a major trend change.

    Canadian Dollar The Canadian dollar declined 6.5% in 2013 and the technical

    outlook remains weak.

    The Canadian dollar broke below key technical support of

    US$0.95.

    In the near term, we believe the Canadian dollar is oversold,and is setting up for a bounce.

    However, if the Canadian dollar cannot break back above the

    key US$0.95 level, it is likely to head lower, possibly to next

    support at US$0.85.

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    III. Commodities

    CRB Commodity Index

    The CRB Commodity Index remains in a long-term downtrend,and below its declining 65-week EMA.

    It is quickly approaching an important support level at 268,

    which represents the 2012 lows.

    A break below this level would be bearish for the commoditycomplex, with next supports coming in at 249, followed by 220.

    To become more bullish on commodities, we would need to see

    the CRB Index break above its downtrend and 65-week EMA,

    which converge around the 285 level. Until then, we remain

    cautious.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil Price

    Similar to 2013, we expect the WTI oil to trade in a rangebetween US$85/bl and US$110/bl in 2014.

    The WTI oil price is at important uptrend support, which if

    broken, would open the door for a retest of the next support atUS$85/bl.

    With oil prices typically weak in January and February, we see

    the potential for WTI to break below its uptrend and decline into

    the US$80s/bl before staging a rally in the early spring, ahead of

    the U.S. driving season.

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    IV. Gold

    At the beginning of 2013 we had a constructive technical

    outlook for gold, however, we turned negative on the metal in

    mid-2013. On an intermediate and short-term basis, gold remains in a

    confirmed downtrend since hitting a peak of US$1,798/oz. in

    Q4/12. On a daily chart it continues to trend lower while finding

    resistance at its declining 50-day MA. Only a break above its

    short-term downtrend and 50-day MA, which converge in the

    US$1,250/oz. to US$1,275/oz. range, would cause us to revisit

    our negative technical view.

    On a long-term basis, we view US$1,180/oz as the line in thesand for gold. This is the convergence of its long-term uptrend

    from its 2001 lows and its July/December 2013 lows. In our

    opinion, a decisive break below this level would open the doorfor significant downside, and likely the end of the long-term bull

    market in gold. If this occurs, we would target a decline toUS$1,072/oz., which represents a 50% retracement of its entire

    move since 2001.

    Overall, our technical view on gold remains negative. Webelieve it is quickly approaching an inflection point which could

    determine whether the 13-year bull market has more room to

    run, or is at its terminus.

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    U.S. Stock Recommendations

    Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN-Q)

    We remain bullish on U.S. regional banks and believeHuntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN-Q) has one the strongest

    technical charts in the industry.

    HBAN is trading in an upward channel, is above its rising 50-

    and 200-day MAs, and is exhibiting strong price momentum.

    On a relative basis, HBAN continues to outperform the market,

    showing strong relative strength.

    Honeywell International (HON-N)

    Honeywell International (HON-N) is a high-quality industrial

    company, with a strong technical profile.

    The stock is trading in an upward channel, continues to find

    support at its rising 50-day MA, and is trading above its 200-dayMA.

    HONs relative trends have flat lined since the summer 2013,

    with the stock moving up in-line with the overall market.

    However, its price trends remain bullish and we believe it couldmove higher, and possibly begin to outperform the broader

    market again in 2014.

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    CSX Corp. (CSX-N)

    In our 2013 Technical Outlook we recommended Norfolk

    Southern Corp. (NSC-N). Given our continued bullish view on

    the U.S. rails, we are recommending CSX Corp. (CSX-N) this

    year. CSX has been trading in a year-long uptrend, following its base

    building in 2012. The stock is trading above its rising 50- and

    200-day MAs, and its relative strength is slowly improving.

    We see CSXs uptrend continuing and the stock outperforming

    in 2014.

    Medtronic Inc. (MDT-N)

    We recommend an overweight in the U.S. healthcare sector,

    and see the medical device industry delivering strong returns in

    2014.

    Medtronic Corp. (MDT-N) is an attractive stock within the

    medical device industry. The stock is trading in a long-term upward channel, and is

    above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs.

    Its relative trends remain bullish, with the stock recently making

    a new relative high.

    We see the potential for new highs for MDT in 2014.

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    Canadian Stock Recommendations

    Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T)

    Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) is one of our top picks for2014, based on its strong technical profile.

    MFC is trading in a well-defined upward channel and is trading

    above it rising 50- and 200-day MAs.

    Its relative strength remains strong, with it registering a new

    relative high in Q4/13.

    Additionally, its volume trends remain very supportive, with thestock advancing on heavy volume, and its On Balance Volume

    (OBV) indicator moving higher.

    The stock is overbought in the short term which could result in

    some backing and filling. We would buy the stock on any short-

    term weakness.

    Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T)

    Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T) has a bullish technical profile, and we

    see it moving higher in 2014.

    The stock is trading in an upward channel, and is above its

    rising 50- and 200-day MAs. It continues to outperform the

    broader market, a sign of positive relative strength.

    Next technical resistance comes in at the low $20s to mid $20s,

    which is our technical target in 2014.

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    Davis + Henderson Corp. (DH-T)

    Davis + Henderson Corp. (DH-T) has significantly outperformed

    the S&P/TSX over the last few years, and we see this

    continuing in 2014.

    The stock is trading in a strong upward channel, is above itsrising 50- and 200-day MAs, and continues to exhibit strong

    relative strength.

    Volumes trends remain supportive, with the OBV indicator

    continuing to trend higher and making higher highs.

    Despite the strong returns in 2013, we believe the technical

    profile for DH remains attractive.

    Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T)

    Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) broke out of a long-term base in the

    fall of 2013, and we see the potential for additional upside.

    The stock is trading in an upward channel and is above its rising

    50- and 200-day MAs.

    Its relative strength remains solid, with it making a new relative

    high (green circle) in December 2013.

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    Appendix AImportant Information

    Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at

    https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/coverage.disclosure.actionPlease note TD Securities Inc. research and disclaimers are available in English only.

    ______ _________________ _________________ ______ ______________________ _________________ ________

    Company Ticker Disclosures_____________________________________________________________________________________________

    Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN-Q n/a

    Honeywell International HON-N n/a

    CSX Corp. CSX-N n/a

    Medtronic Corp. MDT-N n/a

    Manulife Financial Corp. MFC-T 1, 2, 4, 9, 10

    Enerplus Corp. ERF-T 2, 4, 9

    Davis + Henderson Corp. DH-T 1, 2, 4, 9

    Aecon Group Inc. ARE-T 2, 9

    1. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to the

    subject company.2. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the

    subject company.

    3. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next three months with respect to

    the subject company.

    4. TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company.

    5. A long position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analys t, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research

    analyst has discretion or control.

    6. A short position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research

    analyst has discretion or control.

    7. A long position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the

    research analyst has discretion or control.

    8. A short position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which

    the research analyst has discretion or control.

    9. TD Securities Inc. and/or an affiliated company is a market maker, or is associated with the specialist that makes a marke t, in the securities of the subject company.

    10. TD Securities Inc. and/or affiliated companies own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company.

    11. A partner, director or officer of TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC, or a research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months,

    provided services to the subject company for remuneration.

    12. Subordinate voting shares.

    13. Restricted voting shares.

    14. Non-voting shares.

    15. Common/variable voting shares.

    16. Limited voting shares.

    https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/coverage.disclosure.actionhttps://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/coverage.disclosure.actionhttps://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/coverage.disclosure.action
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    Technical Outlook January 16, 2014

    Page 23

    Additional Important Disclosures

    Helen K. Sinclair, Director of Davis + Henderson Corp., is a member of the board of directors of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. TD Securities Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of TheToronto-Dominion Bank.

    TD Securities Inc. acts as an agent on behalf of Manulife Financial Corp. in the execution of securities transactions.

    General Research Disclaimer

    The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report is for informationalpurposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading or tax strategiesshould be evaluated relative to each individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance. Thisdocument does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax advisor. All opinions and other information in thisdocument are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for anyloss or damage suffered.

    TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including options, futures and other derivative instrumentshereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.

    Technical Research Disclaimer

    The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamental research can be obtained through your TD

    Waterhouse Investment Advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker. The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical dataand expectations of the most likely direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.

    Research Dissemination Policy

    TD Waterhouse makes its research products available in electronic format. TD Waterhouse posts its research products to its proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by

    password and distributes the information to its sales personnel who may then distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by email, fax or regular mail.

    No recipient may pass on to any other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without the prior written consent of TD Waterhouse.

    Analyst Certification

    The TD Waterhouse Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and technical research opinions

    expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein and (ii) no part of the research

    analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.

    Conflicts of Interest

    The TD Waterhouse Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this report. As with most other TD

    Waterhouse employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of TD Waterhouse and its affiliates, whichincludes the overall profitability of investment banking services, however TD Waterhouse does not compensate analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.

    Corporate Disclosures

    TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (MemberCanadian Investor Protection Fund), TD W aterhouse Private Investment Counsel

    Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company).

    The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

    All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

    TD Waterhouse Trade-mark Disclaimer

    The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.