Climate  resilience  in  the  eastern  Himalayas:    Integrated  approaches  to  assessing  vulnerability  and  developing  adapta5on  strategies  July  14,  2013    

Ryan  Bartle3,  Sarah  Freeman    

Flowing  Forward:  the  WWF  CCVA  Approach  

•  2010  World  Bank  report:  guiding  principles  for  adaptaFon  in  the  water  sector  

•  Evolved  to  more  structured  approach  via  applicaFons  in  Coastal  East  Africa,  the  Mekong  Basin,  Eastern  Himalayas  

•  Assesses  climate  change  vulnerability  of  human  and  ecological  systems  at  the  landscape/river  basin  scale  

   

•  Directly  reliant  on  stakeholder  parFcipaFon    •  “TriangulaFon”:  peer-­‐reviewed  science,  community  and  expert  parFcipatory  assessment  

•  Main  objecFve:  prioriFze  vulnerabiliFes  and  develop  adaptaFon  acFons  

Climate-­‐Development  

Impacts

Exposure    (Impact  Severity)

Development  Scenarios

Climate  Scenarios

The  Flowing  Forward  Framework  

InsFtuFons

InformaFon

Policies Social  

Adap9ve  Capacity

Resilience

Exposure    (Impact  Severity)

Vulnerability

Social  Adap9ve  Capacity

Adapta9on  Planning

IdenFfy  Analysis  Units

General  Process  

1.  IdenFficaFon  of  data  and  informaFon  gaps  

2.  Data  and  informaFon  collecFon  and  analysis  (including  community  surveys)  

3.  Vulnerability  and  AdaptaFon  Workshop      

4.  Final  Outputs  

5.  Follow  up  

The  Chitwan-­‐Annapurna  Landscape  (CHAL)/Gandaki  Basin  

The  Chitwan-­‐Annapurna  Landscape  (CHAL)/Gandaki  Basin  

•  North-­‐south  connecFvity  between  internaFonally  renown  naFonal  parks  and  conservaFon  areas  

•  Extremely  diverse  sub-­‐climates  and  ecosystems  –  Globally  significant  and  endangered  biodiversity  

•  Rapid  economic  growth  enhancing  livelihoods,  development  pressures  on  ecosystem  services  

•  Rapid  infrastructure  development  creaFng  new  pressures  

•  Climate  changes  already  evident:  seasonality,  phenology,  variability,  extreme  events  

Analysis  Units  Human  and  natural  systems  within  ecoregional  gradients  •  Human  –  Infrastructure:  naFonal  and  district  roads,  hydropower    

–  urban  and  rural  se3lements,    –  agro-­‐ecosystems    

•  Natural  –  Forests,  wetlands,  rivers,  cryosphere,  target  species    

Stakeholder  Driven  VA  Process  

•  Through  three  key  components  of  framework:  – Community-­‐level  VA  and  adaptaFon  planning  –  InformaFon  collecFon  and  synthesis  – ParFcipatory  stakeholder  workshop  

Community  VA  and  AdaptaFon  Planning  ConsultaFons  

•  CVCAs  in  6  ecologically  representaFve  sites  •  MulFfold  objecFves    •  MulFple  stages  of  engagement  (i.e.  assessment,  

representaFon  at  the  stakeholder  workshop  and  follow  up  meeFngs)  

Data  and  InformaFon  CollecFon  and  Analysis  – Studies  commissioned  and  consultants,  academics  included  as  stakeholders  in  subsequent  process  

– Climate  informa9on  derived  from  literature,  trend  analyses  and  community  percepFons  and  validated  during  workshop  

(G.  J.  Thapa,  E.  Wikramanayake,  J.Forrest,  2013)  

2050  Scenario:  

y  =  0.0273x  -­‐  21.333  R²  =  0.06874  

y  =  0.0275x  -­‐  22.575  R²  =  0.09493  

y  =  0.028x  -­‐  23.268  R²  =  0.1023  

25  

27  

29  

31  

33  

35  

37  

1970   1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010  

June   July   August  Linear  (June)   Linear  (July)   Linear  (August)  

ParFcipatory  Workshop  •  Diverse  mix  of  key  stakeholders  in  the  landscape  

–  Program  partners:  development,  conservaFon  NGOs  –  Relevant  government  departments:  IrrigaFon,  Forestry,  Agriculture,  Local  Development  

–  Local  governments:  District  and  Village  Development  Commi3ees  

–  Community  representaFves  from  across  the  landscape  –  Private  sector:  hydropower  companies  

Resilience

Exposure    (Impact  Severity)

Vulnerability

Social  Adap9ve  Capacity

Adapta9on  Planning

IdenFfy  Analysis  Units

Results  •  Not  just  what  is  most  vulnerable/resilient  but  why  –  the  SeF  sub-­‐catchment:  

•  high  exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts  (sand-­‐gravel  mining,  increasing  flow  variability);  limited  inherent  resilience  (connecFvity,  funcFonal  redundancy)  

–  Sub-­‐tropical  broadleaf  forests:  •  High  exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts  (deforestaFon  from  increasing  human  encroachment,  producFvity  declines);  limited  inherent  resilience  (fragmentaFon)  

–  Rural  se3lements:  •  High  exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts  (poor  infrastructure  planning  +  increasing  severity  of  extreme  events);  limited  inherent  resilience  (isolated  from  naFonal  infrastructure)  

Conclusions    

•  The  integrated  Flowing  Forward  approach  is  valuable  for  mulFple  reasons:  – HolisFc  basin-­‐wide  approach:  glacier  to  terminus  –  SensiFzaFon  and  capacity  building  on  climate  issues  for  relevant  decision-­‐making  stakeholders  and  communiFes  

– Aids  “buy-­‐in”  of  local  communiFes  and  leaders  to  the  adaptaFon  process  

–  Consensus  building  around  priority  adaptaFon  acFons  –  Stakeholder  driven  planning  for  subsequent  years  of  program  

Thank  you