Russian activities in polar studies related to weather

forecastingM.Tolstykh,

Hydrometcentre of Russia;Institute of Numerical Matematics

Russian Academy of Sciences

Plan

Background Observations Data assimilation Modelling

Background

Many meteorological stations in Russian Arctica were closed/conserved in 1990s

Today Arctic is getting one of Russian priorities

Enhancement of forecasting capabilities in Arctic is essential for:

- sea transport, - oil and gas industry, - etc.International Polar Year 2007-2008Polar forum in Moscow, September 2010 – Russian PM

declared support for basic researches in ArcticProposal for international polar decade

Organizations involved

Roshydromet: observations Roskosmos: satellites Hydrometcentre of Russia, Arctic and

Antarctic Research Institute: forecasts, diagnostic studies, modelling

Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS – ocean and ice modelling, coupled modelling (climate)

Norway-Russian cooperation: StPetersburg NIERSC (mostly climate studies, but also some meteorology)

Roshydromet international activities in ArcticRoshydromet international activities in ArcticRegions of Russian studies in Arctic

Participation in International Polar Year projects

Roshydromet

acting polar stationsstation to be restored

Russian activities in Antarctic

5 stations + 3 automatic weather stations

Progress station is being built

Building the permanent complex on Progress station

Helicopter site is builtPowerstation is partially built

Further construction is underway

Modernization of existing stations in Antarctida

Installation of satellite communication complex on Novolazarevskaya station

Mirniy: New aerological complex is installed

Seasonal bases Molodezhnaya, Russkaya, Leningradskaya – automatic wethater station are installed

Study of the underice Vostock lake

Drillinig is carried from 3580 to 3645 m depth

Shore is determined using radar

Drilling device

It is planned to reach the Vostock lake during 2010 – 2011 season

Observations in Arctica: Current state and perspectives

Density index for SYNOP stations 35-50 ( 1 station per 35000-50000 sq. km) in Russian Arctic as of 01.01.2009. It is planned to increase the number of SYNOP stations in Russia to 2200-2300 (among them 500-600 automatic), significant portion of this increase will be above 60N . Arctic stations will be mostly automatic). About 50 stations are being installed this year.

Radiosondes: planned increase from 105 to 129 sites, soundings 2 times per day.

Creation and maintenance of the “Arktika” satellite system including two Molniya satellites on high-elliptic orbits.

Roshydromet SYNOP stations included in GTS

Russian radiosondes sites

It is planned to reopen 22 sites (in yellow), 12 of them – north of 60N

2007: 87 expedition and field projects, 53 in Arctic, 24 in Antarctic and 10 bipolar.76 Russian and foreign organizations, including 46 Russian organizations form 8 ministries took part in IPY expeditions in 2007. Some measures on restoring hydrometeorological network were carried out. (29 stations)

Russia in International Russia in International Polar YearPolar Year 2007-2008 2007-2008

Opening SP-35

Mir-1

Ice camp

Drifting station “Severnii Polus 37 ” (09/2009-01/2010)

ObservationsObservations::•Continuous registration of meteorological and actinometric parameters (automatic station);•Continuous registration of CO2 concentration; • Regular measurements of ozone and UV radiation intensity);• Gradient measurements for temperature and humidity (2 and 8 m), wind - 2 and 10 m);• Regular aerological soundings• Regular surface spectral albedo measurements • Ozone soundings;• Aerostat observations in boundary layer

Russian satellite hydrometeorological system (plan)Russian satellite hydrometeorological system (plan)Russian satellite hydrometeorological system (plan)Russian satellite hydrometeorological system (plan)

Short and medium-range numerical weather prediction

Global models (SL-AV and T169L31) LAM – COSMO-RU 7 km Data assimilation Global ensemble prediction system

(under testing) – based on T169 and SL-AV global models

SL-AV model Semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical

core of own development, ALADIN/LACE parameterizations

Currently, 0.9x0.72 degrees lon/lat, 28 levels, runs on Altix 4700 computer

Accepted as the principal global model of RHMC Version with the resolution 0.45x0.37 degrees, 50

levels under testing Mire parametirization of own development Forecasts also at

http://meteoinfo.ru/plav-forc-rus Spectral T169L31 model also runs operationally

Mire description included into SLAV model (Yurova A.)

Peatlands have specific sensible heat H,latent heat LE, andsoil heat Gfluxes

LE MMWH (Mixed Mire Water and Heat, Granberg et al., 1999)

G heat diffusion in multilayer peat

(Wania et al., 2009)

Mire percentage (Sirin A. A. et al.)

T and RH errors at 2m for near-mire stations (bias, Abs and RMS

errors)

COSMO-RU07: domain

h = 2.8 km

Initial and boundary data:00 and12 UTC, GME (DWD)

Forecast: 78 h

Grid step 7 km

Grid: 700 * 620 * 40

SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores)

Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024 cores

4340 km

4900 km

Data assimilation

3D-Var-FGAT for global models under quasioperational tuning (M.Tsyrulnikov).

LETKF for SL-AV global model is being implemented (A.Shlyaeva).

Some form of hybrid is considered for far future

The Hydrometcentre of Russia medium-range ensemble

prediction systemDomain: globalPerturbations of initial data: BreedingRegional rescaling (northern extratropics, southern extratropics,

tropics) Members: 15 T85L31 – 12 perturbed + control + T169L31, unperturbed + SLAV, unperturbed

Implementation: Quasi operational runs on Altix 4700.

Seasonal forecasts at Hydrometcentre of Russia

Operational: 1)Seasonal version of SL-AV model Horizontal resolution 1,40625°х1,125° lon-lat, 28 vertical levels; 2) T42L14 (T63L25 soon) run by Main Geophysical Observatory (St.Petersburg)

The models contribute to the multi-model ensemble of APCC. Forecasts are at http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/season

There is an experimental coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

Experimental atmosphere-ocean-ice model -1

Joint work of Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS

Atmospheric part is SL-AV (1.4x1.1, 28 levels)

Ocean and ice models, as well as the cooupler, are taken from the climate model of INM. Calibrated in CMIP4, participating in CMIP5.

INMOM Ocean model

sigma-coordinate model with isopicnic horizontal diffusion

1˚x0.5˚ , 40 levels The EVP (elastic- viscous- plastic)

dynamics, Semtner thermodynamics sea ice model (Hunke, Ducowicz 1997; Iakovlev, 2005) is embedded.

Coupling to the atmospheric model without flux correction

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

March SeptemberMarch September

INMOM results

Observational data AMIP[Hurrel et al 2008]

Sea ice concentration

Experimental atmosphere-ocean-ice model -2

Averaged heat flux to the ocean is 2.8 W/m2 (evaluated on the ocean side while running the model with one-way interaction). Room for improvement!

No flux correction. 10-member ensemble (only atmospheric

initial data were perturbed) Requires 12 hours on 12 processors (one

ensemble member).

Change of SST in one of the experiments: reanalysis (left), coupled model (right)

Some results

According to first results, small positive changes in extratropics atmosphere as compared with extrapolated SST anomaly run.

Recently, the results for SST forecasts were improved.

Currently, hindcasts with the coupled model are being run.

But…

Even potential predictability in Arctic on seasonal time scales is not too high…

Plan to study if there is a positive impact of using coupled model for shorter time ranges (e.g. month)

Plans (related to the models)

Increase of the resolution for medium range SL-AV model to 0.45x0.37 deg, 50 levels – parallel runs expected in 2011.

COSMO-RU 7 km will have a special domain for Siberia (2011-2012)

Coupled system – increase of the ocean model resolution to 0.25x0.25 deg, increase the number of vertical levels in atmospheric model from 28 to 40 (2012).

3D-Var-FGAT for the atmosphere and ocean expected operationally in 2011

Thank you for attention!