Russia Polypropylene Market

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Russia: Polypropylene

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

November 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

Page 2 from 21 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Polypropylene Market. November 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian polypropylene market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Analysis of raw materials’ base;

Analysis of the state of the consuming industries;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian polypropylene market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains 170 pages, 49 tables, 68 figures.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




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completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

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verify all secondary information used in the report.

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the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian polypropylene market and

build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Description of polypropylene

4. Volume and dynamics of the polypropylene market in Russia

4.1. Polypropylene market in Russia in 2008 - 2017

5. Characteristics of the domestic production of polypropylene

5.1. Production of polypropylene

6. Main manufacturers of polypropylene and their corresponding market shares

6.1. Manufacturers of polypropylene

6.2. Profiles of the main manufacturers of polypropylene

6.2.1. LLC "NPP "Neftekhimiya"

6.2.2. LLC “Stavrolen”

6.2.3. OJSC “Tomskneftekhim”

6.2.4. OJSC “Nizhekamskneftekhim”

6.2.5. OJSC “Ugaorgsintez”

6.3. Investment projects in the industry

7. Characteristics of prices of polypropylene

7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of polypropylene

8. Characteristics of the imports of polypropylene to the Russian market

8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of polypropylene

8.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported polypropylene on the

territory of the Russian Federation

8.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the polypropylene, imported to the Russian

Federation

8.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imported polypropylene

8.5. Structure of the imports of polypropylene by regions of the Russian Federation

9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of polypropylene

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the exports of polypropylene

9.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of polypropylene

9.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying polypropylene for exports

9.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of polypropylene

10. Factors, influencing the development of the polypropylene market in Russia

11. Characteristics of the consumption of polypropylene

11.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of polypropylene in 2008 – 2011.

Forecast until 2017

11.2. Structure of consumption of polypropylene by industries

11.3. Balance between production and consumption of polypropylene

12. Forecast for the development of the polymers market in 2011 - 2017

12.1. Scenarios for development of the world economy

12.2. Scenarios for development of the polypropylene market




Appendix1. Financial and economic indicators of the industry

Appendix2. Profiles of the leading manufacturers




List of tables

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of the polypropylene market in 2008 - 2011 and forecast

until 2017, in thousands of tons

Table 2. Production of polypropylene in 2005 - August 2012, in thousands of tons

Table 3. Polypropylene producers and their shares in the total production in 2010 - 2011

Table 4. Production of polyethylene and polypropylene in 2009 - 2011

Table 5. Production of polymers by the OJSC “Tomskneftekhim” in 2009 - 2011

Table 6. Production of basic polymers by the OJSC “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” in 2009 - 2011

Table 7. Production of basic polymers by the OJSC “Ufaorgsintez” in 2009 - 2011

Table 8. Capacities for the production of polymers, planned for commissioning in 2012 -

2018

Table 9. Average manufacturers' prices of polypropylene in the Russian Federation in

January 2007 - September 2011

Table 10. Dynamics of the imports of polypropylene in the Russian Federation in January -

December 2011, in tons


December 2011, in thousands of USD


July 2012, in tons


July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 14. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

tons

Table 15. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 16. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing countries in January -

July 2012, in tons

Table 17. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing countries in January -


Table 18. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

tons

Table 19. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 20. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in January -

July 2012, in tons

Table 21. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in January -


Table 22. Volume of the imports of polypropylene in the Russian Federation by recipient

companies in 2011, in tons


companies in 2011, in thousands of USD


companies in January - July 2012, in tons





companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 26. Volume of the imports of polypropylene by regions of the Russian Federation in

2011, in tons


2011, in thousands of USD


January - July 2012, in tons


January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 30. Russian exports of polypropylene in 2011 with Kazakhstan and Belarus

Table 31. Volume of the exports of polypropylene in 2011, in tons

Table 32. Volume of the exports of polypropylene in 2011, in USD

Table 33. Volume of the exports of polypropylene in January - July 2012, in tons

Table 34. Volume of the exports of polypropylene in January - July 2012, in thousands of

USD

Table 35. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in 2011, in

tons

Table 36. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 37. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in January -

July 2012, in tons

Table 38. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in January -


Table 39. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in

2011, in tons


2011, in thousands of USD


January - July 2012, in tons


January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 43. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in 2011, in

tons

Table 44. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 45 Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in January -

July 2012, in tons

Table 46. Volume of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in January -


Table 47. Base scenario for the development of the polypropylene market

Table 48. Conservative scenario for the development of the polypropylene market

Table 49. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the polypropylene market




List of Figures

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the polypropylene market in 2008 - 2011 and forecast for 2012

- 2017 years, in thousands of tons

Fig. 2. Dynamics and structure of the propylene market in 2008 - 2011 and forecast until

2017, in thousands of tons

Fig. 3. Structure of the polypropylene market origin in physical terms in 2011

Fig. 4. Production of polypropylene in 2011 - August 2012, in thousands of tons

Fig. 5. Production of polypropylene in January 2010 - August 2012, in %, to the analogical

period of the previous year

Fig. 6. Production of polypropylene in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Fig. 7. Production of polypropylene in 2005 - 2011, in billions of RUR

Fig. 8. Structure of production of polypropylene by companies in 2011

Fig. 9. Index of the average manufacturers' prices of polypropylene in the Russian

Federation in January - December 2011

Fig. 10. Index of the average manufacturers' prices of polypropylene in the Russian

Federation in January - September 2012

Fig. 11. Dynamics of the average manufacturers' prices of polypropylene in the Russian

Federation in January 2011 - September 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of

the previous year

Fig. 12. Comparison of the average manufacturers' prices of polypropylene by Federal

Districts, in September 2012

Fig. 13. Dynamics of the imports of polypropylene in the Russian Federation in January -

December 2011, in tons


December 2011, in thousands of USD


July 2012, in tons



Fig. 17. Structure of the imports of polypropylene in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms


manufacturing countries in 2011 in value terms


manufacturing countries in January -July 2012 in physical terms


manufacturing countries in January -July 2012 in value terms


manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms


manufacturing companies in 2011 in value terms


manufacturing companies in January -July 2012 in physical terms





manufacturing companies in January -July 2012 in value

Fig. 25. Structure of the imports of polypropylene in the Russian Federation by recipient

companies in 2011 in physical terms


companies in 2011 in value terms


companies in January - July 2012 in physical terms


companies in January - July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 29. Structure of the imports of polypropylene by regions of the Russian Federation in

2011 in physical terms


2011 in value terms


January - July 2012 in physical terms


January - July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 33. Dynamics of the Russian export of polypropylene in 2008 - 2011, in thousands of

tons

Fig. 34. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polypropylene in 2011, in tons

Fig. 35. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polypropylene in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 36. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polypropylene in January - July 2012, in tons

Fig. 37. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polypropylene in January - July 2012, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 38. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in 2011 in

physical terms

Fig. 39. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in 2011 in

value terms

Fig. 40. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in January

- July 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 41. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by recipient countries in January

- July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 42. Structure of Russian exports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in 2011

in physical terms

Fig. 43. Structure of Russian exports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in 2011

in value terms

Fig. 44. Structure of Russian exports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in

January - July 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 45. Structure of Russian exports of polypropylene by manufacturing companies in

January - July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 46. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in 2011 in

physical terms




Fig. 47. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in 2011 in

value terms

Fig. 48. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in January -

July 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 49. Structure of the Russian exports of polypropylene by sending regions in January -

July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 50. Quarterly dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2007 - 2011, in trillions of RUR,

excluding the seasonal factors

Fig. 51. Dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2005 - 2011, in 2008 prices, in billions of RUR

Fig. 52. Dynamics of real disposable income, real wages, real pensions in 2005 - 2013, in %

Fig. 53. Quarterly dynamics in the real disposable income of the population of the Russian

Federation, in % to the previous year

Fig. 54. Structure of the real disposable income in 2009 - 2011, in %

Fig. 55. Dynamics of the debt on loans to individuals in January 2009 - November2011,

growth rate, in %

Fig. 56. Total volume of completed building construction in the Russian Federation in 2005 -

2011 in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 57. Structure of commissioned buildings in 2005 - 2011, in cubic meters

Fig. 58. Total construction volume of commissioned residential buildings in the Russian

Federation in 2005 – 2011, in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 59. Total construction volume of commissioned non-residential buildings in the Russian

Federation in 2005 – 2011, in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 60. Volume of apartment houses in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of square meters

Fig. 61. Volume of individual houses in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of square meters

Fig. 62. Number of months that should be worked for the purchase of one square meter of

housing, on the primary market

Fig. 63. Dynamics of the production of certain sectors of the economy in 2008 - 2011

Fig. 64. Dynamics of investments in fixed capital at constant prices (volume index) in 2005

– 2011, in %, to the previous year

Fig. 65. Investments in fixed capital by sources of financing in the Russian Federation in

2007-2011

Fig. 66. Dynamics of consumption of polypropylene in the Russian Federation in 2008 -

2017, in thousands of tons

Fig. 67. Structure of consumption of polypropylene in primary forms by industry in 2011

Fig. 68. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand of polypropylene in 2008 -

2017




Executive Summary

…

The volume of supply on the Russian polypropylene market in 2012 was almost … tons,

which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume

of imported products on the polypropylene market was …%.

The volume of production of polypropylene in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than

the volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all polypropylene manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012

belongs to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of polypropylene in Russia amounted to … tons in physical

terms and to … thousand USD in value terms.

…

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market




5. Characteristics of the Russian

polypropylene market

...

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian polypropylene

market in 2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian polypropylene market in 2012 was almost … tons,

which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume

of imported products on the polypropylene market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of the supply of polypropylene in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for

2013 - 2017, in thousands of tons and percentage




5.2. Structure of the polypropylene market in Russia: production,

exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of polypropylene in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the

total market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented

below.

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of the market of polypropylene in Russia in

2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of production

In tons … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of

exports In tons

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In tons … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In tons … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




6. Characteristics of the domestic

production of polypropylene in Russia

in 2007 - 2012

…

6.1 Volume and dynamics of the production of polypropylene in

2007 - 2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6 Production of polypropylene in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




6.2 The main manufacturers of polypropylene and their

corresponding market shares

Table 4. Manufacturers of polypropylene and their corresponding market shares in

2011

Manufacturer Region

Production

of

polypropyle

ne, in tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




8. Characteristics of the imports of

polypropylene into the Russian market 8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of polypropylene

…

The volume of imports of polypropylene in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

polypropylene was imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Table 8. Volume and dynamics of the imports of polypropylene in 2012, in

thousands of tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 30. Dynamics of the imports of polypropylene in Russia in 2012, in thousands

of tons and in %

…




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