Russia in the East Asian Context

4 of the world’s 10 most populous countries

China: 1,337 mln. (No.1) USA: 313 mln. (No.3) Russia: 143 mln. (No.7) Japan: 127 mln. (No.10)

GDP, PPP, US$:

USA – 14 trln. China – 7 trln. Japan – 4.3 trln. Russia – 2 trln.

THE FOUR GREAT POWERS

2 maritime – Japan, US 2 continental – China, Russia

Maritime as challengers Continental as status-quo

20th century - 2 communist, 2 capitalist Japan fought the 3 others, ultimately lost Russia-China-US: have been both competitors and allies The 2 withdrawals of Russia’s power Dialectics of economics and security The legacy of wars:

The absence of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan The unresolved Korean problems The problem of Taiwan

CHINA

The former (and future?) regional hegemon The decline of the Qing Empire since 18th century Imperialist expansion in East Asia

Russia Britain US Germany Japan

The 20th century: Clashes of empires: Russia-Japan, Japan-US, Japan-

Britain The 2 communist revolutions:

Russia, 1917 China, 1949

China’s resurgence: Revolution Independence Modernization Balance of power strategies Potential regional hegemony, based primarily on

economic power

RUSSIA The easy expansion to the Pacific (17th-20th centuries) Trade over security Taking advantage of China’s decline The fateful clash with Japan, 1904-1905 The communist transformation (modernization, security,

ideology, geopolitics) Alliance with China (since the 1920s) Support of Chinese Communists WW2: Alliance with the US and China against Japan Cold War: Alliance with China against US and Japan 1950s: the apex of Russia’s influence in the region 1960s-1970s: conflict with China, detente with the US Late 1970s-1980s: US and China contain Russia Late 1980s-2000s: Russia turns inward, exits geopolitical

competition, improves relations with US, China, Japan, undergoes transition crisis, then a partial recovery

JAPAN

The Meiji Restoration (Renewal, Revolution), 1860s – simultaneous with US Civil War, abolition of serfdom in Russia, and the loss of China’s independence

Emergence from isolation Rapid and successful modernization Successes of Japanese imperialism: defeat of China

(1896), Russia (1905), occupation of China (1937-45), British, French, and Dutch colonies in Asia-Pacific

The 1945 defeat at the hands of Russians and Americans and post-imperial liberal modernization

The Cold War alliance with the US Economic competition with the US Geopolitical uncertainties Interests vis-a-vis China and Russia Security concerns

USA

Manifest Destiny and Open Door: Pacific expansion, economic and military tools

Collusion and collision with Japan The alliance with Russia against Japan The apex of American power: 1945 The Communist challenge The defeat in Vietnam The US-China alignment against Russia The Japanese economic challenge The end of the Cold War: new US hegemony, East Asian

counterbalances The Chinese challenge to US

6 bilateral relationships:

Russia-China USA-Japan Russia-USA Russia-Japan USA-China China-Japan

For each country, it is important: Not to allow a hostile combination of the others To maintain good relations with the 3 others

Competition and cooperation Sources of competition Factors for cooperation

Obama’s Asian Pivot Respond to the rise of China Reassert America’s role in the Pacific Beef up US military presence Work with countries on China’s periphery

The China-Russia partnership