Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 1. ï½ A.T. Stoddard, PhD, PE â—¦ Principal - LSC Transportation Consultants ï½ Corey Pitts, AICP â—¦ Transportation Planner

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TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation1Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop1WelcomeA.T. Stoddard, PhD, PEPrincipal - LSC Transportation Consultants

Corey Pitts, AICPTransportation Planner - Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc (VHB)2Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop2Project B-3 (1995)Methods for forecasting Demand based on data from 39 selected countiesWorkbook and spreadsheet (in 1-2-3)Methods applied by states and agenciesMixed reviewsProject B-36Methods for both Need and DemandUsed national databasesConsidered new travel marketsHistory3Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopMarkets have changed

FTA requirement for Public Transportation-Human Service Coordination PlanPlans will be more useful if related to measures of unmet need and served demand

Internet provides easy access to data not readily available in 1995

Good forecasts provide support for funding from local governments

Why New Methodology?4Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopNeed = number of persons likely to require service

Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost

Both are required; need may be more important to build support

It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition

5Input from PractitionersRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopDemographic data American Community Survey (and PUMS)Only source for disability data

3-Year data available for areas having a population of 20,000 or more

5-Year data for areas of all size available at the tract levelData Sources6Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopNational Household Travel SurveyValid data only for large geographic areas

Rural National Transit Database (NTD)Service areas not clearly identifiedPatronage by market not specifiedSome questions about data qualityGeneral public services onlyData Sources7Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshophttp://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf

8Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshophttp://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf

9Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshophttp://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/168758.aspx

10Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopUnderstand concepts of need and demand

Explore methodologies for estimating need and demand

Become familiar with workbook

Identify sources of data (collect when appropriate)

Select and apply appropriate methodologies

Understand and apply spreadsheet tool11Goals of the WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopIntroduction to TCRP Report 16112Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopIntroduction to the Workbook12TCRP Project B-36 WorkshopQuick Start Guide

Introduction

Need

Demand

Data Sources

AppendicesWorkbook Contents and Organization13Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopWorksheets

Hot links to Census data (electronic version)

Spreadsheet for application14FeaturesRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopBasic data required to estimate need and demandService characteristicsService area populationService area (square miles)Annual vehicle-milesAnnual vehicle-hoursNumber of one-way trips served (boardings)

Community CharacteristicsArea of each county in service area (square miles)College/University enrollmentList of social service agencies providing transportationQuick Start Guide15Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopHave participants turn to page in workbook (1st page)

Introduction to the Workbook15TCRP Project B-36 WorkshopPopulations in need

Mobility GapNumber of trips neededMethodologies: Need16Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopGeneral purpose rural mostly demand response

Program trips tied to human service programs

Small city fixed route in small communities, under 50,000 population*

Commuters rural area to urban center*

* New topic not addressed in project B-3

Methodologies: Demand - Four Markets17Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopA Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS)

B Step by Step Instructions for the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet

C Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection

Appendices18Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopImportant Definitions19Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopDefinitions19TCRP Project B-36 WorkshopNeedDemandMobility GapTripProgram TripNon-Program TripRuralUrbanized AreaUrban ClusterUrban Center20Some Important Definitions...Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopNeed relates to transportation that is required so that individuals can fulfill life needs and participate in society. Need is independent of the quality of available transportationNeed is measured in two ways: people and trips

Demand is the number of trips that will be made using a transportation service offered at a given price and level of service. Demand is measured in trips21Need and DemandRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopMobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such accessRepresents the full unmet trip need relative to those with relatively unfettered mobility

Measured in trips per day

Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served

22Need Trip BasedRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopProgram trips trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity Trip time and destination established by agency

Non-program trips akin to general public transportation but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over)Trip time and destination chosen by traveler23Definitions Trip TypesRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopIn this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B

For fixed-route and non-program trips, a trip is as defined for the National Transit Database i.e. a boarding

For program or sponsored trips, a trip is a linked trip from original origin to ultimate destination24Definitions - TripRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural a county which has a population density less than 1,000 persons per square mile

Urbanized Area a central place and adjacent territory with population density 1,000 persons per square mile and total population of at least 50,00025Definitions (continued)Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopUrban Cluster A densely settled area with a population between 2,500 and 50,000Defined by U.S. Census

Urban Center the central place of an urbanized areaAs used in the demand forecasting methodology and Workbook26Definitions (continued)Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopTransportation NeedPopulation Segments Method27Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopIntroduction to the Workbook27TCRP Project B-36 WorkshopPopulation BasedNumber of persons residing in households owning no vehicle Vehicle ownership more important than ageNumber of persons residing in households with income below the poverty line

Data for each group, individually, available from the American Community Survey28NeedRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopVehicle Ownership is more important than age29Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop1 year data areas of 65,000 or more population3 year data areas of 20,000 or more population5 year data block group level

30ACS DataRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopHouseholds by Vehicle AvailabilityB08201

Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level B17001

31Table Numbers for ACS Data RetrievalRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopNeed Population Based32Number of Persons Residing in Households with Income Below the Poverty LineNumber of Persons Residing in Households with No Vehicle AvailableRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopPopulation Segments MethodExample33Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopIntroduction to the Workbook33TCRP Project B-36 Workshop

Households with No Vehicle Multiplier Persons residing in households with No Vehicle