RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN

EAST AFRICAEAST AFRICA

Principal InvestigatorPrincipal InvestigatorC. BARRETT C. BARRETT - CORNELL- CORNELL

Co-Principal InvestigatorsCo-Principal InvestigatorsF. MURITHI F. MURITHI - KARI - KARI

F. PLACE F. PLACE - ICRAF- ICRAF

J. RASAMBAINARIVO J. RASAMBAINARIVO - FOFIFA- FOFIFA

PRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINE

PROBLEM STATEMENT

RESEARCH GOAL &OBJECTIVES

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

POLICY RELEVANCE

RESEARCH TIME LINE

EXPECTED OUTPUTS

Problem StatementProblem StatementAgrarian poverty may create incentives to follow land and

livestock management practices which further reduce agricultural labor productivity by depleting natural capital:

resource degradation poverty traps (RDPTs).

Key Sources of RDPTs (threshold effects):

- missing/imperfect factor, product and asset markets - biologically-induced non-convex technologies

Resource Degradation Poverty TrapsResource Degradation Poverty Traps

An integrated model of dynamic processes giving rise to poverty traps in rural Africa

HUMAN BIOPHYSICAL

Reduction of criticalecological functions

Income & wealthinequalities

Extensification/intensification

Declining productivity(labor, capital)

Imperfect and missingasset/factor/product

markets

Soils degradationAgriculture(declining output)

Research GoalResearch Goal

Contribute towards an improved understanding of the interaction between economic and biological processes in poor rural communities and disseminate findings to lay decision makers through policy briefs and community meetings to improve local management practices.

Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives

Examine empirically how biological processes and market conditions interact to create or extend dynamic poverty traps

Simulate policy experiments that might sustainably reduce poverty and/or improve resource management

Build capacity with local partners to carry out such analysis and simulations locally

Research MethodologyResearch Methodology

Field data collection

Econometric estimation of behavioral and biological response functions

Integrated simulation modeling (CLASSES)

Field Data Collection DesignField Data Collection DesignM

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Wetter

1. North Central Kenya (Baringo)

AGRO-ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS

1.Central highlands, Kenya (Embu)

2. Central highlands, Madagascar (Vakinankaratra)

1. Northern Kenya(Marsabit)

1. Western Kenya (Siaya /Vihiga)

2. Southern highlands, Madagascar (Fianarantsoa)

Research SitesResearch Sites

Kenya Madagascar

CLASSES Simulation ModelCLASSES Simulation Model

Crop, Livestock And Soils in Smallholder Economic Systems (CLASSES)

– an integrated model of heterogeneous agents and landscapes with dynamic feedback loops linking field and tree crop and livestock productivity to soil conditions and to human choices and welfare in the presence of potentially imperfect or missing markets

Policy RelevancePolicy Relevance

Use models to simulate policy experiments, allowing for differences according to market and agroecological conditions. For example- What are the consequences of improving market

access on poverty and soils over time?

- How might biological interventions (e.g., liming soils, extending improved fallows) change labor allocation and income trajectories?

- What targeting mechanisms and transfer forms (e.g., livestock species) are likely to prove most effective in sustainably reducing agrarian poverty?

RESEARCH TIME LINERESEARCH TIME LINEACTIVITIES

YEAR 0(2000-1)

YEAR 1(2001-2)

YEAR 2(2002-3)

YEAR 3(2003-4)

Project design

Field survey

Training

Bio-economicmodelling training W/S

Project teammeetings

Parameterestimation

Simulationmodel building

Policy W/S

Publications

Research OutputResearch Output Direct dissemination of research findings to

specific sites, users and to areas with similar conditions

Provide an empirical basis for policy recommendations and implementation

Publications (English, French, Malagasy, Swahili) Capacity building (FOFIFA, KARI) Generate relevant data bases for future use