RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue047.pdf · NEWS INTERNATIONAL NEWS • Apple has announced the acquisition of chip-maker Intel’s smartphone

ISSUE: 047

27TH JULY, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INZ000172733). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Unlike before, auditors may need to disclose the reasons for their intermittent resignationsA positive outcome of the recent accounting irregularities in the listed companies is that the regulatory bodies have begun to snoop the statutory auditors’ ways and their affairs of accounting. SEBI has proposed new rules last year, to prosecute auditors and levy penalties if found negligent. The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) had recently proposed certain firms to be banned from auditing for a period of 5 years as they went hand in glove with the IL&FS Financial Services management to alter their financial statements. This has lead to an unwanted trend of auditors resigning abruptly fearing the threat of punitive charges. However, this may not be a welcoming factor in the corporate sector, as it may cause unwanted disruptions in the smooth functioning of the companies and their respective stock prices, as the auditors’ proceedings mirror the actual state of affairs to all the stakeholders of a company. Market watchdog SEBI also noted that the auditors are citing personal reasons for exiting the companies and tried to restrict such behaviours in its recent proposals of auditor regulations. The regulator is trying to make auditors reveal the reasons and irregularities that may include but not limited to misstatements, falsification of accounts, complacency or not providing the required information and lack of co-operation by the management.

The auditors have been negligent enough so far circumventing the existing Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) regulations and ICAI’s auditing standards which require auditors to weigh the effects of their resignation and communicating the same to the relevant authorities of the company. SEBI also stresses that if the reason for the exit is non-provision of information, a disclaimer to that effect should be included in the audit report. SEBI is also proposing that auditors should complete the annual audit for the financial year before their exit if they had signed the audit reports of the first three quarters. This will ensure that the disclosure of financial statements is not delayed in the process of information transfer to the new auditors. However, since there is a chance that auditors may choose to quit earlier in the year, the market watchdog may mandate that auditors can resign only after completion of an annual audit.

It is also a good move to involve the audit committee in surveillance of the functioning of the auditors. The committee will be involved in determining the nature and scope of the audit and monitor its effectiveness, in such companies having a majority of independent directors. By considering to include the audit committee and the Board of Directors’ views along with the auditor’s resignation letter submitted to the stock exchange, SEBI is ensuring that the audit committee will not run apart from its responsibility. Also, making the panel a communication channel between the management and auditors may also ensure that auditors’ affairs are not unnecessarily intervened by the company’s management.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Aditya Kistampally

Viplav Dhandhukia

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Vaishali Paruthi

Chetan K Waghray

Jayashree Ram

Konpal Pali

Vivek Lohumi

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ravi Pandey

Ravikanth P

Kushal Asthana

Arpit Chandna

Ramesh Chenchala

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31/P, Karvy Millennium Towers, Nanakramguda, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Telangana-500032, India.

For More updates & Stock ResearchVisit: www.karvyonline.com

Toll free: 1800 419 8283

Email: [email protected]

Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy:

• IMF on Tuesday projected a slower growth rate for India in 2019 and 2020, a downward revision of 0.3% for both the years, saying its GDP will now grow respectively at the rate of 7 and 7.2% reflecting a weaker-than expected outlook for domestic demand.

Agriculture:

• The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved the creation of a 4 million metric tonne sugar buffer stock for one year. This is likely to support the industry by not only providing cash support to sugar mills (in form of compensation for carrying cost of stock) but also improving the demand-supply situation in the domestic market and the consequent support to the sugar prices, said ICRA in a note issued on Thursday.

Banking:

• The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of public sector banks (PSBs) have declined by Rs. 89,189 crore from a peak of more than Rs 8.95 lakh crore in March 2018 to over Rs. 8.06 lakh crore in March this year, the government told the Rajya Sabha.

Auto:

• Korean automobile major Hyundai Motor is developing an electric vehicle for the mass market and will launch it in a couple of years time, said a top company official.

• The government is set to cut goods and services tax rate on electric vehicles to 5% this week.

Power:

• Amplus Energy Solutions has announced investment of Rs. 500 crore for its second open access solar project of 100MW in district Deoria of Uttar Pradesh.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• Apple has announced the acquisition of chip-maker Intel’s smartphone modem business for $1 Bn.

• French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss Brexit with Britain’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whom he has invited to visit in the next few weeks, an official from Macron’s Elysee office said on Friday.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 37882.79 37326 37604 38247 38612 Down

NIFTY 11284.30 11109 11197 11385 11486 Down

NIFTYBANK 29325.30 28513 28919 29683 30041 Down

BAJFINANCE 3264.60 2870 3067 3389 3514 Down

YESBANK 96.05 76 86 101 107 Up

RELIANCE 1213.80 1155 1185 1268 1323 Down

HDFCBANK 2277.30 2182 2230 2337 2398 Down

SBIN 342.60 323 333 356 369 Down

HDFC 2165.75 2025 2095 2267 2369 Down

MARUTI 5805.65 5532 5669 5957 6109 Down

ICICIBANK 415.75 395 405 423 430 Down

INFY 787.00 769 778 800 813 Up

INDUSINDBK 1415.50 1321 1368 1448 1480 Down

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT

EX-DATE/

RESULT DATE

Havells India Ltd Result Update 27 JULY 2019

ICICI Bank Ltd Result Update 27 July 2019

Vadilal Industries Ltd Result Update 27 July 2019

K.P.R. Mill Ltd Result Update 29 July 2019

Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd Final Dividend – Rs. 0.2 26 July 2019

Lupin Ltd Final Dividend- Rs. 5.00 29 July 2019

Cipla Ltd Dividend- Rs. 3.00 31 July 2019

KSTREET - 27TH JULY 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-0.05

-0.05

-0.04

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00 Nifty

Sensex

BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty N

ext 50

Nifty M

idcap 100

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00 Auto

Bank

Services

FMC

G

Pharma

IT Metal

Energy

Consum

ption

Realty

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.04

Nasdaq

Dow

Jones

S&P 50

0

Nikkei

Hang Sang

Sanghai Com

p

FTSE 100

CA

C 40

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

GRA

PHITE IN

DIA

LTD

AM

ARA

RAJA

BATTERIES

LTD

BERGER PA

INTS IN

DIA

LTD

IDFC

FIRST BAN

K LTD

DILIP BU

ILDC

ON

LTD

CH

OLA

MA

ND

ALA

M

INV

ESTMEN

T AN

D

IDBI BA

NK

LTD

CA

NA

RA BA

NK

GRU

H FIN

AN

CE LTD

FUTU

RE CO

NSU

MER LTD

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

YES BAN

K LTD

ZEE ENTERTA

INM

ENT

ENTERPRISE

ASIA

N PA

INTS LTD

SUN

PHA

RMA

CEU

TICA

L IN

DU

S

BHA

RTI INFRA

TEL LTD

TATA

MO

TORS LTD

CO

AL IN

DIA

LTD

HIN

DU

STAN

PETROLEU

M

CO

RP

HO

USIN

G D

EVELO

PMEN

T FIN

AN

CE

UPL LTD

-3000.00

-2000.00

-1000.00

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

19-07-19 22-07-19 23-07-19 24-07-19 25-07-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

TVS Motors Ltd CMP Rs.375Target Price Rs.473Upside 26%

Investment Rationale

• Impressive performance amidst challenges: During Q1FY20, the Indian 2W industry declined by 11.7% while TVS volume declined merely by 0.6%. This is on account of strong performance by its four brands (Jupiter, Ntorq, Apache and Radeon) which continue to perform well. Their contribution to domestic volumes has gone up from 41% to 50% YoY. This augurs well for the TVS’s overall profitability as the company enjoys pricing power in these brands. With regard to Q1FY20 export, TVS has performed exceedingly well by growing at 10% as compared to the industry growth of 3.1%.

• Stable Business and Profitability Outlook: Going forward, TVS management anticipates overall Indian 2W industry to report positive growth during H2FY20 vs. H1FY20. The management is confident of outperforming the industry growth. This growth is likely to be supported by its new product line. We believe that the four brands (Jupiter, Ntorq, Apache and Radeon) will continue to perform well considering that the contribution from these brands to the domestic volume has gone up from 41% to 50% YoY.

• Q1FY20 Result Highlights: During Q1FY20, TVS net sales grew 7.2% YoY to Rs. 45 Bn vs. our estimate of Rs. 43.9 Bn, driven by 0.6% volume decline and a 7.8% increase in average realizations. EBITDA margin expanded by 26 bps YoY to 8%. Improvement in EBITDA margin was primarily on account of 77 bps increase in gross margins in Q1FY20. PAT recorded Rs. 1.4 Bn which de-grew by 2.9% YoY.

• Financial Estimates: We expect TVS to report 8.6% volume CAGR, 11% sales CAGR and 24.3% PAT CAGR during FY19-21E. The company is expected to report EPS of Rs.16.9 and Rs. 21.8 in FY20E and FY21E respectively.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 604/356

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 180/2.6

EPS (Rs.) 14.1

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 20.0

Dividend Yield (%) 0.9%

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E CHART

Valuation

At CMP of Rs.375, we expect TVS to report 24.3% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E. We rate BUY on the stock for a price target of Rs. 473 (PER of 20xFY21E earnings + Rs 37 for TVS Credit Services Ltd- 2x FY19 P/B).

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Revenue 151754 182099 200106 224543

EBITDA 11750 14333 16620 19980

EBITDA(%) 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.9

PAT 6626 6701 8047 10356

EPS (Rs.) 13.9 14.1 16.9 21.8

RoE (%) 25.1 21.5 22.2 24.2

P/E 24.6 24.3 20.2 15.7

57%

16%

16%

11%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

TVS Price Sensex

34%

35%

18%

13%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

NITEC Sensex

57%

16%

16%

11%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

TVS Price Sensex

34%

35%

18%

13%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

NITEC Sensex


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

NIIT Technologies Ltd. CMP Rs.1274Target Price Rs.1642Upside 29%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 1425.2/1030.6

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 78765.5/1143.2

EPS (Rs.) 65.5

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 12.9

Dividend Yield (%) 2.1

Stock Exchange BSE, NSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 36762 45585 54552

EBITDA 6452 8205 9819

EBITDA(%) 17.6 18.0 18.0

PAT 4033 5010 6081

EPS(Rs.) 65.5 81.1 98.4

RoE (%) 21.0 22.9 24.4

PE (x) 20.2 15.7 12.9

Investment Rationale

• Consolidated revenues stood at Rs. 9,627 Mn in Q1FY20 up by 16.7% on YoY basis and down by 1.0% on QoQ basis. It was up by 19.9% (YoY) and up by 3.0% (QoQ) excl. GIS business. Constant currency organic revenue growth excl GIS business was 4.0%.

• Quarterly EBITDA was at Rs. 1,388 Mn up by 6.3%( YoY) and down by 18.6% (QoQ). EBITDA margin was at 14.4%, down by 142 bps (YoY) and 313 bps (QoQ). EBITDA margin excluding non-recurring cost was 17.1% (Excl GIS business).

• In this quarter, net profit stood at Rs. 876 Mn, up 2.0% (YoY), down by 17.0% (QoQ). Net Profit excluding non-recurring cost was at Rs. 1,006 Mn, up 17.3% (YoY), down 12.0% (QoQ)

• In Q1FY20, order intake was at $175 Mn thus, total order book stood at $395 Mn of firm business executable over next 12 months.

• Whishworks contributed Rs. 54 Mn to NIIT Tech’s revenue during this quarter. Total revenue of Whisworks for the month of June was Rs. 108 Mn.

• We expect a CAGR growth of 22% in revenue over the period of FY19-FY21E based on the continuous deal flow and broad-based growth in all the three verticals; along with a CAGR growth of 21% in net profit.

Valuation

We expect NIIT Tech to further lower its subcontracting expenses and SG& A to improve its margins. Also, the BPEA’s stake in NIIT Tech will open up client acquisition opportunities for the company to generate revenue. Based on the momentum in deal flow and ongoing improvements in margins with focus on enhancing its digital offerings, we recommend a “BUY” rating for NIIT Tech with target price of Rs.1642, an upside potential of 29%, based on its 3-year historical average P/E of 16.7x to its FY21E EPS of Rs.98.4.

57%

16%

16%

11%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

TVS Price Sensex

34%

35%

18%

13%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

NITEC Sensex

57%

16%

16%

11%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

TVS Price Sensex

34%

35%

18%

13%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

NITEC Sensex


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ICICI Bank

The stock is our preferable bet from private banking space and it is consolidating near its support of 401-404 levels. The stock has bounced well from the low of 400 levels and closed the week with a positive return of 1.33%. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. Prior to that, the stock has seen profit taking from the swing high of around 444 levels which has dragged the stock to the low of around 401 levels in a span of approximately three weeks. The historical price action in the stock reflects that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants, which helps stock to resume its up move. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northwards and has given a positive crossover to the signal line and trading comfortably above the signal line. The recent development in the stock suggests that the up move in the stock will remain intact. Hence, we suggest buy in the stock for upside target of 490 levels and above that is 510 levels with a stop loss placed below 345 levels for the time frame of 4-5 months.

Infosys Limited

A global enterprise established in the year 1981, providing next-generation information technology services and consultation to the clients spread over 45 countries to navigate their business through digital transformation. Technically, the stock is in secular uptrend making higher highs and higher lows from past few weeks. The stock is trading above all the major moving averages i.e. 21/55/100/200/500 on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Recently, stock has bounced well from the support zone of 700-705 levels and moving northwards indicating inherent strength in the counter. Previously, stock had respected the 55 DEMA on weekly chart and bounced well after a correction. After that stock was trading in a consolidation range of 705-770 levels and recently given a breakout from the consolidation. Stock is in an uptrend and has the potential to move towards 900 levels in the near term. On the oscillator front, MACD (12, 26, 9) is trading northward above the zero line in weekly charts indicating inbuilt strength in the counter. At the current levels, stock is giving an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 770-780 levels for the potential upside target of 890 followed by 920 levels over the next 5-6 months, keeping a stop loss below 702 levels.

STOCK ICICIBANK

CMP 415.75

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 408

AVERAGE 375

STOP LOSS 345

TARGET 1 490

TARGET 2 510

TIME FRAME 4-5 MONTHS

STOCK INFY

CMP 787

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 780

AVERAGE 734

STOP LOSS 702

TARGET 1 890

TARGET 2 920

TIME FRAME 5-6 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 17450

Stop Loss 18100

Target 16500

Lot Size 25

Margin 78000

21-DEMA 18113

Open Interest Shares 390575

Change in OI -40775

Cost of Carry (%) 4.76

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY FMCG (29,142.30) has ended the week with a positive return of around 0.4% outperforming the benchmark index Nifty which closed with loss of around 1%. Technically, the NIFTY FMCG index closed below all its major moving averages on the weekly chart for the third straight week. However, the index has formed a bullish harami pattern on the weekly chart indicating that the bearish trend in the index may be reversing. The index is placed below its parabolic SAR on the daily as well as weekly chart giving a contradicting signal indicating that the bears have not completely lost their grip yet. The stocks which have outperformed the NIFTY FMCG index during the week were TATAGLOBAL, PGHH, UBL, DABUR, MCDOWELL-N, EMAMILTD, GSKCONS, ITC and HINDUNILVR while GODREJIND, BRITANNIA, GODREJCP, COLPAL, MARICO and JUBLFOOD underperformed the index. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is placed above its 9-period signal line on the daily chart and poised with bullish bias reflecting the index may find buying interest in the coming trading sessions. Going ahead, the index is expected to trade with flat to positive bias. The support for the NIFTY FMCG index is pegged around 28900 levels followed by 28400 levels. While on the higher side, the index may face resistance around 29500 levels followed by 29700 levels.

NIFTY PHARM (8,178.90) has been one of better performing sectors last week concluding with gains of around 1% on weekly basis. The index has been an outperformer from last couple of weeks while benchmark index Nifty continued to trade with bearish bias. On the stock front, LUPIN, SUNPHARMA & DRREDDY emerged as the top performers which ended with gains of more than 4-4.5% for the week. Among the other stocks, CADILHC & AUROPHARMA also ended with positive bias with gains of 1-3%. On the flip side, PEL continued to remain an underperformer for the week and ended lower by more than 5%. Technically, the index is currently trading near the resistance of 8150-8200 levels and any breach of the range may trigger buying momentum towards 8350-8400 levels. The immediate support for the index is pegged around 8100 followed by 8000 levels while near term resistance for the index is placed around 8250 followed by 8350 levels. For the upcoming week, the index is expected to trade with sideways to positive bias in the range of 8100-8300 levels. Short term traders may adopt stock specific approach on the index for the coming sessions and may adopt a “Sell on rise” strategy for few stocks like PEL, GLENMARK & CIPLA on any rally.

NIFTY FINSE (12,880.05) has been under pressure and closed the week with a negative return of around 2.56%. The Index underperformed Nifty last week which generated a negative return of around 1.06%. The Index is making support around 12720-12740 levels from a couple of weeks. The index is in uptrend and making higher highs and is trading in the range of 12700-13000 levels. The recent fall in the stock has placed the stock near its support of 12800 levels and historical price action suggests that any meaningful dip in the index may attract market participants. Most of the stocks from the financial space closed the week in red. The immediate support in the index comes around 12700 levels and below that at 12500 levels. The index may find resistance around 13000 levels and above that at 13200 levels. The stocks from the sector that have closed the week with negative bias are BAJAJFINSV, BAJAJHLDNG, BAJFINANCE, HDFC, M&MFIN, and PFC generating negative return of 3.79%, 3.63%, 1.45%, 6%,17.96% and 5.79%. Whereas the stocks like HDFCLIFE, ICICIPRULI, and MFSL have closed the week with negative return of 2.18%, 5.60% and 4.72% respectively. The stock specific action is expected from the sector in the coming week. We hold a positive view in the Index for the week and expect it to trade in the range of 12700-13200 levels.

NIFTY BANK (29325.30) has underperformed the Nifty with a loss of 1.49% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty lost by 1.18%. During the last week, the index moved with a downward bias after breaking the crucial support at 30220 levels in the prior week. However, the index bounced from the levels close to the 200 EMA (now at 28798 levels) after forming a low at 28871 levels during the week. For the week ahead, the index may trade with a bearish bias until and unless 29565 levels are taken off from downside. On the earnings front, public sector lender Bank of Baroda’s June quarter net profit stood at Rs. 710 crore compared to a loss of Rs. 49 crore in the same period last year on the back of lower provisions. On a standalone basis, the bank had posted a net profit of Rs. 528 crore in Q1FY19. Canara Bank reports a 17% increase in first-quarter standalone net profit at Rs. 329 crore against Rs. 281 crore in the year-ago period. Net interest margin was lower at 2.29% against 2.52% in the year-ago period. On the stock front, YESBANK and IDFCFIRSTB closed in green with gains of 14.83% and 5.22% during the week while RBLBANK and PNB lost by 9.02% and 6.52%. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 29500 levels followed by 30000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 29000 levels followed by 28800 levels.

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: BUY KOTAKBANK (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 1516.55 SECTOR: BANKING

KOTAKBANK has been trading in a broad range of 1460-1515 from past several weeks post witnessing a stellar upward move on daily chart. On daily chart, the stock is placed above its major moving averages after re-testing its support zone which even collides with the 50 DEMA, suggesting it to be a strong support for the counter. On oscillator front, 14 periods RSI is placed in a comfort zone of 51-54 levels indicating further upside potential in the counter. Even on the Bollinger band (20, 2) the stock price has recovered from the lower band and is currently placed near the mean affirming bullishness in the counter. Even the stock has witnessed trending slope line breakout on closing basis and on derivatives front, the stock has witnessed short closure in the past week suggesting strong hands accumulating the counter at lower levels. Hence, it is advisable to go long in the counter on any dip towards 1508 keeping a stop loss placed below 1460 levels for the potential upside target of 1565 levels in coming trading sessions.

Sentiment

Initiation 1508

Stop Loss 1460

Target 1565

Lot Size 400

Margin 108000

21-DEMA 1493

Open Interest Shares 8096400

Change in OI -2381600

Cost of Carry (%) 3.34

EICHER MOTORS LIMITED: SELL EICHERMOT (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 17262.80 SECTOR: AUTO-ANCL

EICHERMOT is making lower lows and lower highs on daily charts from past few weeks with increasing number of trading volumes. The stock has not shown any recovery in the last few weeks in line with the overall market conditions and is showing signs of further weakness in the near term period. At current juncture, the stock is trading well below the major moving averages on the daily charts and is trading below the near term resistance of 17300-17400 levels and a decent rise in the stock price is also witnessed from the recent lows. We expect the ongoing weakness in the stock to continue and any rise in the price may be used to create short positions for the short term trading perspective. The counter has immediate support around 16900-17000 level followed by 16500 levels while resistance is pegged around 17800 followed by 18100 levels on the daily charts. Short term traders may adopt the strategy of “Sell on Rise” in the stock for the near term downside targets of 16500 keeping strict stop loss of 18100 levels in the August derivative series.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11284.30): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed lower by 1.18%. The selling pressure continued past the last week. Technically, the index is currently plotting around its 200 EMA indicating that a short bounce might occur from the current levels. However, below the current week’s low of 11210 levels, the index may further see selling towards 11000 levels. We also expect that the market may take cues from the ongoing earnings season from the initial overhang of the Union Budget in the coming sessions. In the current scenario, Nifty may trade with a bearish bias unless and until 11430 levels are taken off from downside and sustained. For the week ahead to watch, market participants may lay their focus on the RBI Monetary policy review, Fiscal deficit and Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Jun) numbers releasing on 31st July and Manufacturing PMI (Jul) releasing on 1st Aug that may actively determine the course of next market direction. On the derivatives front, Open Interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 11200 followed by 11000 levels while on the higher side, 11300 and 11400 may act as strong resistance.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE CALL RATIO IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of BANKNIFTY 01AUG 29300 CE @ 228

SECOND LEG Sell 2 lot of BANKNIFTY 01AUG 29500 CE @ 130

BEP Upper BEP 29732

MAX PROFIT 4640

MAX LOSS Unlimited above UBEP

RATIONALE From last couple of sessions, Bank Nifty is trading with mixed bias finding support near its major 200-DEMA. Going forward, index is likely to find support at lower levels and eventually resume its uptrend. Therefore, one may initiate Call Ratio spread in the index.

TYPE BUY CALL IN KOTAKBANK

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of KOTAKBANK 29AUG 1520 CE @ 37

BEP 1557

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED ABOVE BEP

MAX LOSS 14800

RATIONALEThe stock price was consolidating above its 50-DEMA from last couple of sessions and also the momentum oscillator 14-pd RSI found support near equilibrium level. In the last session, stock witnessed buying interest with rise in open interest indicating long accumulation in the counter. Hence, one may initiate buy call in the counter.

TYPE BUY PUT IN ONGC

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of ONGC 29AUG 140 PE @ 4

BEP 136

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED BELOW BEP

MAX LOSS 15000

RATIONALE The stock has witnessed selling pressure with spurt in volume and the stock is poised below its long term average. Also in the last session, stock witnessed rise in Open Interest with fall in price indicating short accumulation in the counter reaffirming underlying weakness in the counter.

TYPE BULL CALL IN DIVISLAB

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of DIVISLAB 29AUG 1680 CE @ 44

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of DIVISLAB 29AUG 1720 CE @ 30

BEP 1694

MAX PROFIT 10400

MAX LOSS 5600

RATIONALE The stock price after a brief consolidation above its 50-DEMA witnessed buying interest in last two sessions with spurt in volume and also with addition in Open Interest with rise in price indicating buying interest in the counter. Therefore, one may initiate Bull call spread in the counter.

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

28800 29000 29200 29400 29600 29800 30000 30200

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

125 130 135 140 145 150

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

28800 29000 29200 29400 29600 29800 30000 30200

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

125 130 135 140 145 150

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

28800 29000 29200 29400 29600 29800 30000 30200

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

125 130 135 140 145 150

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

28800 29000 29200 29400 29600 29800 30000 30200

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

125 130 135 140 145 150

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

7KSTREET - 27TH JULY 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

OFSS 3352.9 0.66 411450 54.36

HEXAWARE 357.9 0.86 2308500 12.01

VEDL 164.1 1.77 70050000 10.12

MARUTI 5805.65 0.63 3663750 8.97

BERGEPAINT 327.9 6.07 2255000 5.89

ICICIPRULI 402.55 6.05 4902000 4.51

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


INDIGO 1582.45 8.17 2626800 -44.29

SAIL 45.2 1.35 86244000 -25.78

BSOFT 75 1.69 2276100 -25.62

NATIONALUM 45.85 0.22 33320000 -25.44

ENGINERSIN 106.65 0.38 7457200 -24.60

UJJIVAN 272.65 0.17 4939200 -24.10

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


PVR 1708.40 -1.56 1108800 29.90

BAJFINANCE 3264.60 -1.76 7561750 20.91

BAJAJFINSV 7233.00 -4.41 963250 19.66

SRTRANSFIN 976.10 -8.05 5112000 16.33

IOC 141.80 -3.21 64449000 13.60

M&MFIN 296.75 -17.89 15180000 13.35

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


RECLTD 142.00 -3.83 30552000 -42.42

OIL 156.35 -0.92 8531490 -36.26

TVSMOTOR 375.85 -5.14 5976300 -34.01

CONCOR 519.15 -3.01 1824021 -32.78

IGL 305.75 -5.30 3630000 -23.96

IDBI 31.15 -8.25 22584000 -23.37

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul

Thou

sand

s

Index Fut. OI Index Fut. Net Buy

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s

Stock Fut. OI Stock Fut. Net Buy

0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Thou

sand

s


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s Stock Fut. OI Stock Fut. Net Buy

0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Thou

sand

s


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Thou

sand

s


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 28

800

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Thou

sand

s


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

1160

0

1170

0

1180

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2880

0

2890

0

290

00

2910

0

2920

0

2930

0

2940

0

2950

0

2960

0

2970

0

2980

0

Call Put

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Thou

sand

s


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480


Thou

sand

s



COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold futures on international bourses traded in a narrow range during the week ended on 26th July 2019 as market participants took cautious approach ahead of key economic events. However, the bias of the bullion was downside during the week as dollar gained strength against major currencies post release of economic data from US. Global financial market was waiting for European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. While keeping interest rate unchanged, the ECB president stated that the interest rate would remain at present level or lower until half of 2020. During the week, International Monetary Fund further lowered global growth forecast by 0.1% to 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020. President Donald Trump and US congressional leaders agreed on a two-year extension of the debt limit and federal spending caps to avert a government default this year but adding to budget deficits in the world’s largest economy. United Kingdom has elected Boris Johnson as its next Prime Minister. US existing home sales have dropped by 1.7% in June against market expectation of -0.2%. US weekly initial jobless claims increased by 206,000 against prior week increase of 216,000 and market expectation of 220,000 while goods trade deficit narrowed to USD -74.17 Bn from USD -74.55 Bn. Durable goods order rose by 2.0% in June against a decline of -2.3% in the previous month. Weekly US unemployment claims data, fell to a three-month low last week pointing to strength in the labor market. While new orders for key US made capital goods surged 1.9% in June. Global bullion market is heading for first weekly decline after two consecutive weeks of gains.

ENERGYCrude oil prices edged higher this week amid rising geo-political tensions in Middle East peninsula between Iran & UK relating to the oil tanker ceased by Iran. Tensions have spiked between Iran and UK since last week when Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged tanker in the world’s most important waterway for oil shipments. That came two weeks after British forces captured an Iranian oil tanker near Gibraltar, accused of violating sanctions on Syria. In the latest development, Britain has started sending a warship to accompany all British-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a change in policy announced on Thursday after the government previously said it did not have resources to do so. Also supporting the prices were increasing hopes of trade negotiations between US & China which could relieve the gloomy outlook casted away by the trade war scenario. As per China’s Commerce Ministry, lead negotiators for China and the US will meet in Shanghai on Tuesday for two days in the next round of trade talks aimed to end their year-long trade war. China issued its third batch of export quotas for refined oil products for 2019, totaling 6 million tones. The new batch raises the total export quotas for refined oil products to 48.15 million tonnes in 2019. That compares to 43 million tonnes through the same period last year. As per EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 10.8 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. US shale producers are poised to further trim spending this year, executives at companies that provide drilling and hydraulic fracturing services warned this week.

METALSBase metals segment had been on oscillating movement wherein the metals such as Copper, Zinc & Lead have been trading in the bracket ranges. Nickel metal outperformed among the entire metal segment surging due to increasing open interest in Shanghai market which shot up by more than 50% since start of this month. Separately, metal used in electric vehicles and stainless steel production is feared to witness the supply shortfall in long term as Indonesian government is planning to re-impose the ban on nickel ore exports from 2022. Although the individual fundamentals for metals like Zinc & Nickel are lending short term support to the prices but on broader terms all the base metals are likely to witness the profit booking due to gloomy economic outlook. According to ILZSG, zinc market was in deficit by 123,000 tons over the first five months of the year and lead mine production for the first five months of the year reached 1.94 million tons, up from 1.91 million tons for the same period in 2018. According to IAI, Global primary aluminium output fell to 5.246 million tonnes in June from revised 5.406 million tonnes in May. As per ICSG, global world refined copper market showed a 96,000 tonnes deficit in April compared to a 42,000 tonnes deficit in March. For the first 4 months of the year, the market was in a 155,000 tonnes deficit compared to a 64,000 tonnes deficit in the same period a year earlier.

COTTONDomestic cotton futures traded under pressure for most part of the year following improved planting activities across India. Sowing activities have

picked up in central region in line with revival of monsoon. Total acreages under cotton were reported at 108.95 lakh hectares till end of 26th July higher by 6% y/y. Cotton acreages in Maharashtra has improved in recent week due to revival of monsoon and reached up to 40.63 lakh hectares till 25th July compared to 36.78 lakh hectares of prior year for corresponding period. Cotton acreages in Gujarat also have been higher by 4% y/y reported at 22.50 lakh hectares as per the data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture. Moreover, weighing on the prices were the improved imports from US due to rising price disparity of Indian fiber. Prices spread between Indian cotton and ICE cotton has reached up to 20 cent/lb led to significant rise in imports in domestic market. Cotton Association of India estimated total cotton import in India at 31 lakh bales and this is almost double to the last year’s import. Meanwhile, Cotton association of India estimated total supply during the period from October 2018 to June 2019 at 347.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which consists of the arrivals of 303.56 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019, imports of 11.28 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2018 at 33 lakh bales. At global front, ICE cotton futures traded mixed to higher on technical recovery moreover, expectation of ease of trade tension between US and China also added positivity to prices during the week. China has allowed few millers to import US cotton without tariff of 25%. However, condition of cotton crop in US has been satisfactory so far as USDA rated about 60% of cotton crop under good to excellent condition against the 56% of prior week and 39% of prior year for corresponding period.

SOYBEAN Soybean traded sideways to higher during last week ended on 26th July mainly due to the slower planting progress in major soybean growing states. Deficit monsoon rainfall in Madhya Pradesh and other soybean growing states hampered the sowing activities and sparked the fear of yield loss. Expectation of fall in acreages under soybean and shrinking arrivals in physical market helped prices to trade on positive bias during the week. As per Ministry of Agriculture, total acreages under soybean were reported at 97.13 lakh hectares till 25th July compared to 101.52 lakh hectare of prior year for corresponding period lower by 4% y/y. About 47.37 lakh hectare was covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh till 25th July compared to 47.87 lakh hectare of prior year. Similarly, CBOT soybean futures traded down on improved crop condition amid disappointing weekly export sales data released by USDA on Thursday. USDA showed net sales reduction of 78200 MT for the week ending on 18th July wherein exports of 637,500 MT were down 30% from the previous week and 17% from the prior 4-week average. Similarly, mustard seed futures traded higher on shrinking arrivals in physical market. Moreover, talks on release of mustard seed stocks by NAFED at minimum support prices of Rs. 4200 per quintal also added positivity to prices during the week. CPO traded higher during the week due to increased landed cost amid improved demand in physical market. Firmness in global vet oil prices helped soy oil and CPO prices remain higher during the week.

RUBBERTOCOM rubber futures traded sideways during the week ended on 26th July 2019 tracking mixed fundamentals such as drop in production in Indonesia due to outspread of fungal disease. As per the official of the Ministry of Agriculture, Indonesia’s natural rubber output is expected to drop 15% YoY in 2019 to 3.18 million tonnes due to a fungal disease. Kasdi Subagyono, the Ministry’s plantation Director General said that the disease causing fungus has attacked around 381,900 hectares of plantations and is predicted to spread further. He also said that the rubber plantations affected so far are in South Sumatra, North Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan and West Kalimantan. According to the Chairman of Indonesia’s Rubber Association (Gapkindo), during first six months of CY 2019 rubber exports dropped to 200,000 tonnes. Earlier, Indonesia had agreed to cut natural rubber exports by 98,000 tonnes for four months from April to prop up prices, as part of an agreement with major rubber producers Thailand and Malaysia to cut an overall 240,000 tonnes in exports. The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) will meet in Bangkok and Thailand in August to review prices and global supply and demand of rubber. According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s rubber exports for June 2019 increased by 58.4% in volume and 56.1% in value compared to May 2019 reaching 122.75 thousand tons and USD 174.45 Mn in value. Rubber of Vietnam is exported mainly to China, EU countries, India and Southeast Asia, in which China is the main market with the largest amount of exported rubber, accounting for 64.3% of total export volume reaching 387.1 thousand tons, up 6.56% on YoY basis. In June 2019, rubber exports to China dropped sharply compared to the same period last year while exports to India and Malaysia increased sharply.


COMMODITIES

GOLD

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 19-Jul 26-Jul % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 35036.0 34838.0 -0.6% 35409.00 -1.61% 29268.00 19.03%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 40682.0 41342.0 1.6% 41825.00 -1.15% 34981.00 18.18%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3800.0 3872.0 1.9% 5669.00 -31.70% 2993.00 29.37%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 155.6 151.5 -2.6% 358.70 -57.76% 150.60 0.60%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 456.5 445.7 -2.4% 469.35 -5.04% 397.40 12.15%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 152.6 156.9 2.9% 168.00 -6.61% 123.80 26.74%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 190.6 190.7 0.0% 233.65 -18.40% 163.80 16.39%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1011.1 992.5 -1.8% 1043.00 -4.84% 735.00 35.03%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 143.0 138.8 -3.0% 167.80 -17.31% 124.75 11.22%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3599.0 3608.0 0.3% 3915.00 -7.84% 3149.00 14.58%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 732.9 739.8 0.9% 784.00 -5.64% 713.60 3.67%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3904.0 3940.0 0.9% 4244.00 -7.16% 3711.00 6.17%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 500.0 510.3 2.1% 624.00 -18.22% 483.40 5.56%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5516.0 5550.0 0.6% 6300.00 -11.90% 4473.00 24.08%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6710.0 6950.0 3.6% 7420.00 -6.33% 5870.00 18.40%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 18025.0 17840.0 -1.0% 21000.00 -15.05% 15140.00 17.83%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 7113.0 6366.0 -10.5% 7688.00 -17.20% 4507.00 41.25%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3155.2 3406.1 8.0% 3592.50 -5.19% 1060.00 221.33%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2066.0 2074.0 0.4% 2162.00 -4.07% 1770.00 17.18%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4255.0 4176.5 -1.8% 4869.50 -14.23% 4074.00 2.52%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8753.0 8342.0 -4.7% 10510.00 -20.63% 8070.00 3.37%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 21490.0 21120.0 -1.7% 24280.00 -13.01% 19950.00 5.86%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 3044.5 3170.0 4.1% 3183.50 -0.42% 1595.50 98.68%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1293.3 1257.5 -2.8% 1846.10 -31.88% 1176.00 6.93%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL

SOYBEAN

As on 26th July 2019, Gold August futures at the COMEX platform are trading around $1418/Ounce, marginally lower from the previous week’s closing price of $1426.7. Technically, long term bullish trend is in progress however, since last several weeks prices are trading within a confined range of $1380-1450 levels. At present, prices are trading above the weekly 8, 13 EMA support levels ($1410/1390) levels. The momentum indicators daily RSI-14 has approached the oversold zone (+70). Thus, we are expecting a correction in prices.Gold August COMEX: Sell at $1428-1430 TP 1400 SL 1452Gold August MCX: Sell at 35000-35050 TP 34500 SL 35350

As on 26th July 2019, Crude oil September futures at the NYMEX platform are trading around $56.30/barrel, marginally lower from the previous week’s closing price of $55.63. Prices are trading below the weekly 8, 13 EMA resistance levels ($57.50-58). The momentum indicators have not approached the oversold territory. Prices are witnessing long term falling trend line resistance levels around $58.50 levels. Lower side supports are seen around $54 then at $53 levels. Overall trend is bearish and we recommend selling on rise.Crude oil September NYMEX: Sell at $56-56.50 TP 53.00 SL 58.50Crude Oil August MCX: Sell at 3950-3980 TP 3700 SL 4080.

Soybean August contract delivery futures at the NCDEX platform has settled marginally higher at Rs. 3625/quintal from the previous week’s closing price of Rs. 3585. Since last several weeks, prices are moving lower. Prices have started recovering after taking supports around 3570-3550 levels which is the Fibonacci 38.2% support levels of the range 3778-3370 levels. Only a sustainable breach below the 3460 may interrupt the long term bullish trend. Higher side resistance is seen around 3730 levels. Long term bullish trend is in progress and we recommend building long positions from lower levels.


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Russian crude oil production has recovered to an average of 11.099 million barrels per day (bpd) in the period July 1-25, up from 11.05 million bpd for July 1-21, two industry sources familiar with the data told Reuters. This is still below June’s average of 11.15 million bpd and lower than the level Russia agreed in a global deal on cutting output, under which Moscow committed to cut output by 228,000 bpd from the 11.41 million bpd pumped in October 2018. (Source-Reuters)

• Chinese independent oil refiners are snapping up crude cargoes from Russia, Oman, Africa and Brazil for delivery in September-October as they ramp up operations after refining margins turned positive in July trade and refining sources said. The source said the refinery bought two cargoes or 200,000 tonnes of Russia ESPO this month and is running its plants at 90%. (Source-Reuters)

• United Company Rusal 0486.HK on Friday reported a 21% rise in second quarter aluminium sales compared to the previous quarter, as the Russian aluminium giant’s recovery from 10 months under US sanctions accelerated. Second quarter aluminium sales totalled 1.08 million tonnes while production rose 1% to 938,000 tonnes. (Source- Reuters)

• India is likely to get above-average rainfall in the next two weeks after receiving below average rains in the past two weeks, a weather department official said on Thursday, helping summer-sown crops that were wilting in some areas due to a dry spell. (Source- Reuters)

• Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 2.0% to 1,150,972 tonnes from 1,174,292 tonnes shipped during June 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Thursday. (Source- Reuters)

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Gold firmed on Friday, having shed 1% in the previous session on robust US jobs data with investors awaiting further economic readings from Washington that could drive sentiment going into next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Prices were still on track for a first weekly drop in three, pressured in part by a stronger dollar and spillover from Thursday’s slide after comments from European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi lowered expectations for an immediate cut to interest rates. (Source-Reuters)

• Copper prices declined on Friday with London copper on track for its first weekly decline in three, as comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi were less dovish than expected and the bank held rates steady at its latest meeting. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.5% at $5,978 a tonne, as of 0714 GMT while the most traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 was almost flat at 47,050 yuan ($6,838.86) a tonne. (Source-Reuters)

• Lead prices were set for a third weekly gain as production outages tightened supply of the metal used in batteries and drove stockpiles in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses to the lowest in 10 years. (Source-Reuters)

• ICE cotton futures traded down snapping a four-session gaining streak as improved weekly export sales numbers were offset by lack of buying from China. (Source-Reuters)

• Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their strongest in level in seven weeks in the second half of trade on Friday, tracking gains in US soy oil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). (Source- Reuters)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

12-Jul 14-Jul 16-Jul 18-Jul 20-Jul 22-Jul 24-Jul 26-Jul

$/B

BL

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

11-Jul 13-Jul 15-Jul 17-Jul 19-Jul 21-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul

$/B

BL

150

152

154

156

158

160

162

164

166

168

170

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

11-Jul 15-Jul 17-Jul 19-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

11-Jul 12-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul

Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)


COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 19-Jul 26-Jul % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1847.00 1826.50 -1.11%

Copper LME 3M 6077.00 5985.50 -1.51%

Lead LME 3M 2047.00 2097.00 2.44%

Nickel LME 3M 14650.00 14030.00 -4.23%

Zinc LME 3M 2424.00 2427.00 0.12%

Gold CME Aug 1426.50 1414.40 -0.85%

Silver CME Aug 16.16 16.38 1.33%

WTI Crude oil CME July 55.74 55.91 0.30%

Natural Gas CME July 2.25 2.24 -0.67%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 19-Jul 26-Jul % change

Soybean CBOT Aug 919.25 899.50 -2.15%

Soy oil CBOT Aug 28.19 28.33 0.50%

CPO BMD Oct 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE Dec 63.06 64.21 1.82%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 295725 294125 -1600 -0.54%

Zinc 78600 75700 -2900 -3.69%

Aluminium 966600 1021325 54725 5.66%

Lead 60875 55475 -5400 -8.87%

Nickel 147624 145062 -2562 -1.74%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 154520 149189 -5331 -3.45%

Zinc 75519 74984 -535 -0.71%

Aluminium 422022 396400 -25622 -6.07%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 36158 37391 1233 3.41%

Progress of Area Coverage under Kharif Crops as on 26th July 2019

Crops Normal Area

Normal of corresponding

week

Area Sown Increase(+)/Decrease(-) Over

2019 2018Normal of

corresponding week

2018

Rice 396.25 215.71 185.14 197.69 -30.57 -12.55

Pulses 119.89 92.16 82.92 101.84 -9.24 -18.93

Arhar 43.00 32.69 29.58 34.57 -3.11 -4.99

Urdbean 30.77 24.96 26.15 28.97 1.19 -2.82

Moongbean 27.50 22.90 20.48 27.20 -2.43 -6.73

Kulthi 2.19 0.31 0.15 0.35 -0.16 -0.20

Other pulses 16.44 11.30 6.56 10.75 -4.74 -4.19

Coarse cereals 188.39 135.18 119.00 130.58 -16.18 -11.58

Jowar 21.61 14.25 11.15 13.99 -3.10 -2.84

Bajra 74.39 53.02 40.16 49.50 -12.86 -9.34

Ragi 11.53 3.17 2.07 2.61 -1.10 -0.54

Small millets 6.18 2.06 1.78 2.00 -0.3 -0.22

Maize 74.68 62.68 63.84 62.48 1.16 1.36

Oilseeds 181.96 142.24 133.66 140.92 -8.58 -7.26

Groundnut 42.44 31.02 27.23 29.18 -3.80 4.95

Soybean 111.49 98.65 97.14 101.53 -1.51 -4.39

Sunflower 1.84 0.95 0.58 0.72 -0.37 -0.15

Sesamum 14.13 9.78 7.70 8.06 -2.08 -0.36

Niger 2.41 0.33 0.34 0.41 0.01 -0.07

Castor 9.66 1.51 0.67 1.02 -0.84 -0.34

Sugarcane 48.32 47.74 52.30 55.45 4.56 -3.15

Jute & Mesta 7.87 7.37 6.82 7.18 -0.55 -0.36

Cotton 120.93 102.59 108.95 102.52 6.36 6.44

Total 1063.61 742.99 688.78 736.18 -54.21 -47.39

-10.50%

-4.70%

-3.08%

-2.96%

-2.77%

-2.39%

-1.96%

-1.91%

-1.84%

-1.03%

-0.70%

-0.46%

0.08%

0.25%

0.39%

0.62%

0.81%

0.92%

1.46%

1.68%

2.00%

2.79%

3.58%

4.12%

7.95%

-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%

Dhaniya

Guar Gum

Aluminum

Natural Gas

Mentha Oil

Copper

Nickel

Cotton

Guar Seed

Jeera

Gold

Barley

Zinc

Soybean

Wheat

Castor Seed

Soy Oil

RM Seed

Silver

Crude Oil

CPO

Lead

Turmeric

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Cardamom


USD/INR

USDINR is trading at 68.90. During the week, it made a high of 69.13 and low of 68.88. The RSI is at 43.13. Moving average of 32 is at 68.61 and 55 is at 70.39. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 68.70 TP 69.50 SL 68.20

EUR/INR

EURINR is trading at 76.69. During the week, it made a high of 77.46 and low of 76.68. The RSI is trading at 36.53. Moving average of 32 is at 78.67 and 55 is at 80.13. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 76.80-76.90 TP 75.00 SL 77.20.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is trading at 85.64. During the week, it made a high of 86.40 and low of 85.57. The RSI is trading at 31.58. Moving average of 32 is at 89.19 and 55 is at 90.78. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 85.70-85.80 TP 84.50 SL 86.20.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is trading at 63.40. During the week, it made a high of 63.99 and low of 63.36. The RSI is at 49.26. Moving average of 32 is at 63.44 and 55 is at 63.48. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 63.80-64.00 TP 62.50 SL 64.50.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Rupee closed for the week at 68.80 after hitting weekly high of 69.01 and low of 68.50. Dollar found support at around 68.30/68.4 levels. The pair has now broken resistance of 68.80 and if it stays above this level some more dollar strength is expected in the near term. Sensex plunged more than 500 points while Nifty 50 broke below 11,500 levels to end the week. India’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 15.28 Bn in June from USD 16.6 Bn in June 2018. Exports fell 9.71% to USD 25.01 Bn in June compared to the year earlier and imports were down 9.06% at USD 40.29 Bn. Indian government’s first tranche of overseas sovereign bonds might be issued at $3-4 Bn as per reports. The bonds will likely be issued simultaneously at financial hubs such as London, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong. Dollar’s upside potential against majors is hampered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next policy meeting. China’s economic growth slowed to a record low of 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019. ECB expected to hold Main Refinancing Rate at its 25th July meet.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• James Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the US central bank, favors lowering interest rates by a quarter points when officials meet later this month.

• Foreign portfolio investors pulled out around Rs. 7,712 crore from Indian equities in this month so far following the ‘super-rich’ tax. However, they pumped in Rs. 9,371 crore in the debt segment during the period.

• Tepid earning season, slower pace of GDP growth, sub-par monsoon and lowering of India’s growth forecast from Asian Development Bank to keep Rupee under pressure in the near term.

• The chance of an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut appears to have eased over the weekend after Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said the US economy doesn’t require stimulus.

• Market participants are not very hopeful about large-scale easing by the RBI following Governor’s statement, wherein he said a change in monetary policy stance effectively equates to an additional 25 bps rate cut.

• Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader and will be appointed UK Prime Minister. His pledge to pull the country of the European Union on 31st Oct is popular with Brexit believers.

• IMF said downside risks had intensified and it now expect global economic growth of 3.2% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, a drop of 0.1% point for both years from its April forecast, and its fourth downgrade since October.

• Indian Prime Minister’s Office wants the Finance Ministry to reassess the idea of issuing foreign currency overseas sovereign bonds as per sources.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 68.93 69.13 68.50 68.89

EURINR 77.20 77.46 76.66 76.68

GBPINR 86.16 86.35 85.55 85.64

JPYINR 63.93 63.96 63.38 63.41


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit

29 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Jul -12.10 Index

29 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Export Wheat Inspected 25 Jul, w/e 433.117k Tonne

29 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Export Corn Inspected 25 Jul, w/e 438.045k Tonne

29 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Exp Soybean Inspected 25 Jul, w/e 559.462k Tonne

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Personal Income MM Jun 0.4% 0.5% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Personal Consump Real MM Jun 0.2% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Consumption, Adjusted MM Jun 0.3% 0.4% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Core PCE Price Index MM Jun 0.2% 0.2% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Core PCE Price Index YY Jun 1.7% 1.6% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States PCE Price Index MM Jun 0.2% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:00 United States PCE Price Index YY Jun 1.5% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:25 United States Redbook MM 27 Jul, w/e 1.1% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:25 United States Redbook YY 27 Jul, w/e 4.9% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:30 United States CaseShiller 20 MM SA May 0.0% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:30 United States CaseShiller 20 MM NSA May 0.8% Percent

30 Jul 2019 18:30 United States CaseShiller 20 YY May 2.4% 2.5% Percent

30 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Consumer Confidence Jul 125.0 121.5 Index

30 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Pending Homes Index Jun 105.4 Index

30 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Pending Sales Change MM Jun 0.5% 1.1% Percent

30 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Texas Serv Sect Outlook Jul 3.2 Index

30 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Dallas Fed Services Revenues Jul 13.6 Index

31 Jul 2019 06:30 China (Mainland) NBS Non-Mfg PMI Jul 54.2 Index (diffusion)

31 Jul 2019 06:30 China (Mainland) NBS Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.6 49.4 Index (diffusion)

31 Jul 2019 06:30 China (Mainland) Composite PMI Jul 53.0 Index (diffusion)

31 Jul 2019 15:30 India Fed Fiscal Deficit, INR Jun 3,661.57B INR

31 Jul 2019 16:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 26 Jul, w/e -1.9% Percent

31 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Mortgage Market Index 26 Jul, w/e 490.8 Index

31 Jul 2019 16:30 United States MBA Purchase Index 26 Jul, w/e 260.8 Index

31 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index 26 Jul, w/e 1,789.8 Index

31 Jul 2019 16:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 26 Jul, w/e 4.08% Percent

31 Jul 2019 17:00 India M3 Money Supply 19 Jul, w/e 10.3% Percent

31 Jul 2019 17:30 India Infrastructure Output YY Jun 5.10% Percent

31 Jul 2019 17:45 United States ADP National Employment Jul 150k 102k Person

31 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Employment Wages QQ Q2 0.7% Percent

31 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Employment Benefits QQ Q2 0.7% Percent

31 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Employment Costs Q2 0.7% 0.7% Percent

31 Jul 2019 19:15 United States Chicago PMI Jul 51.0 49.7 Index

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 26 Jul, w/e -10.835M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 26 Jul, w/e 0.613M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 26 Jul, w/e -0.226M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports 26 Jul, w/e -0.562M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 26 Jul, w/e 0.006M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 26 Jul, w/e -0.116M Barrel

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports 26 Jul, w/e 0.212M Barrel/Day

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output 26 Jul, w/e -0.142M Barrel/Day

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs 26 Jul, w/e -0.233M Barrel/Day

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util 26 Jul, w/e -1.3% Percent

31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 26 Jul, w/e -0.429M Barrel

CURRENCY


31 Jul 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 26 Jul, w/e 0.234M Barrel/Day

31 Jul 2019 23:00 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 26 Jul, w/e 23,689k Barrel

31 Jul 2019 23:00 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 26 Jul, w/e 1,039k Barrel/Day

31 Jul 2019 23:30 United States Fed Funds Target Rate 31 Jul 2-2.25 2.25-2.5 Percent

31 Jul 2019 23:30 United States Fed Int On Excess Reserves 31 Jul 2.35% Percent

1 Aug 2019 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Mfg PMI Final Jul 49.6 49.4 Index (diffusion)

1 Aug 2019 10:30 India IHS Markit Mfg PMI Jul 52.1 Index (diffusion)

1 Aug 2019 17:00 United States Challenger Layoffs Jul 41.977k Person

1 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Initial Jobless Claims 27 Jul, w/e 213k 206k Person

1 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 27 Jul, w/e 213.00k Person

1 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Continued Jobless Claims 20 Jul, w/e 1.676M Person

1 Aug 2019 19:15 United States Markit Mfg PMI Final Jul 50.0 Index (diffusion)

1 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Construction Spending MM Jun 0.4% -0.8% Percent

1 Aug 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI Jul 52.0 51.7 Index

1 Aug 2019 19:30 United States ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jul 49.2 47.9 Index

1 Aug 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manuf Employment Idx Jul 54.5 Index

1 Aug 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Jul 50.0 Index

1 Aug 2019 20:00 United States EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 26 Jul, w/e 36B Cubic foot

1 Aug 2019 20:00 United States Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 26 Jul, w/e 36B Cubic foot

2 Aug 2019 17:00 India Bank Loan Growth 15 Jul, w/e Percent

2 Aug 2019 17:00 India Deposit Growth 15 Jul, w/e Percent

2 Aug 2019 17:00 India FX Reserves, USD 22 Jul, w/e 430.38B USD

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Non-Farm Payrolls Jul 170k 224k Person

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Private Payrolls Jul 150k 191k Person

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Manufacturing Payrolls Jul 5k 17k Person

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Government Payrolls Jul 33k Person

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Unemployment Rate Jul 3.7% 3.7% Percent

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Average Earnings MM Jul 0.2% 0.2% Percent

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Average Earnings YY Jul 3.2% 3.1% Percent

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Average Workweek Hrs Jul 34.4 34.4 Hour

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Labor Force Partic Jul 62.9% Percent

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States U6 Underemployment Jul 7.2% Percent

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States International Trade $ Jun -54.8B -55.5B USD

2 Aug 2019 18:00 United States Goods Trade Balance (R) Jun -74.17B USD

2 Aug 2019 19:15 United States ISM-New York Index Jul 882.1 Index

2 Aug 2019 19:15 United States ISM NY Biz Conditions Jul 50.0 Index

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Durables Ex-Def, R MM Jun 3.1% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Durable Goods, R MM Jun 2.0% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Factory Orders MM Jun 0.8% -0.7% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Jun 1.2% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Jun 1.9% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States Factory Ex-Transp MM Jun 0.1% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States U Mich Sentiment Final Jul 98.4 98.4 Index

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States U Mich Conditions Final Jul 111.1 Index

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States U Mich Expectations Final Jul 90.1 Index

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Final Jul 2.6% Percent

2 Aug 2019 19:30 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final Jul 2.6% Percent

2 Aug 2019 United States Dallas Fed PCE Jun 2.2% Percent

CURRENCY


Documents

RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue047.pdf · NEWS INTERNATIONAL NEWS • Apple has announced the acquisition of chip-maker Intel’s smartphone