RSIS Panel Discussion. Monday, 12th November 2007.

Presentation by Jorgen Orstrom MollerVisiting Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.Former Danish Ambassador to Singapore

Soundbyte

The cold war ended in 1990. The cold war’s geo-political structure ended in February/March 2003

The role of the US US as megapower but no international

institutionalisation reflecting this new phenomenon

Unilateral multilateralism Prevention and pre-emption, but what

about other countries Coalition of the willing – pressure on the

unwilling US losing its hard won right of

primogeniture showing the way, rallying nations and people behind a banner of ethics and values

Power There has never been so much power

around, never been so difficult to use it Military. Who are the enemy, how to fight

the enemy, structure of armed forces Economics. Globalization limits the room of

manoeuvre for individual nation-states Values. Fight for the moral high ground.

Fundamentalism, US strive for democracy. The power vector winning the game is

ethics, you can do very little against the global opinion, dissemination of news out of control.

The former model – Nationalism.

Pursuance of national interests – increase territory, wealth etc by taking from other nation-states

Sovereignty – used as bulwark against interference from outside, a filter so to speak

Threat against territory Von Clausewitz: Crisis – Conflict –

Confrontation → War

The new model – Globalization/Regionalization Transnational forces, Supranational enterprises,

International organisations, Cross border pressure groups Multinational civic

society Threat against our societies, not our nation-states, the

way our societies function, not our borders. The international community needs to defend itself

against forces trying to disrupt the international - global – system.

New Strategic thinking: Co-operation – Compromise – Consensus → Global Governance

Sovereignty Defensive in its character. What required

now is active and offensive operations inside an international framework going beyond a national framework.

Shape international rules allowing the nation-state to pursue its political preferences.

Best done with other countries pursuing analogous political goals.

Sovereignty shifts from defensive, passive instrument to offensive. Active tool – maybe new word needed.

The shift.

The era of plenty gives way to the era of scarcity.

Water, energy, food, raw materials. Burden sharing lurking just around

the corner The world is totally unprepared

Asia. Asia as a powerhouse, but short of

resources The global system needs new impetus –

who will provide it? The temptation of regionalization. How will Asia play its hand in transition of

power? China-India-Japan a balanced triangle or a

Bermuda triangle? Can Asia maintain peace in Asia?