1 April 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT A Macro Experiment De-Stabilizing the Micro

Gordon T Long 4/14/2015

2 April 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT A Macro Experiment De-Stabilizing the Micro

APRIL MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY

MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3

I- DEFINING CHARTS ....................................................................................................................................................................11 Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ........................................................................................... 11 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 13 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 13 Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 14

II- TARGETS ...................................................................................................................................................................................18 III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................20

SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 RISK ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22

IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................24 NEW-STUDY: US ECONOMIC DATA JUST TERRIBLE .............................................................................................................24

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24 NEW-STUDY: RECESSION AHEAD? ..........................................................................................................................................26

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 27 NEW-STUDY: MARKETS SET UP FOR APRIL 15th TAX CONTRIBUTIONS ..........................................................................30

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30 NEW-STUDY: WHAT KILLS BULL MARKETS ...........................................................................................................................31

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31 NEW-STUDY: IDENTIFYING RISK REVERSALS........................................................................................................................31

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31 V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................34 VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................35 VIII- GORD'S VIEWS & OPINIONS ...............................................................................................................................................36

SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE - NERVOUSNESS ........................................................................................................................ 43 MARKET AT HISTORIC HIGHS ....................................................................................................................................................... 48

AN ARTIFICAL EQUILIBRIUM ................................................................................................................... 56

THE IMBALANCE...........................................................................................................................................................................59 ARTIFICIAL STATISTICS & STATISTICAL STUPIDITY .............................................................................................................63 A POLICY OF PRAYER .................................................................................................................................................................68 WHAT TO EXPECT ........................................................................................................................................................................70