Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations

RPG REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

IMPACT DRIVERS 3

Team Strategy Event Abyssal Expedition in AFK Arena Product Insights

Hero Popularity Contest Esperian Idols in AFK Arena

TRENDS 11

Interaction Event Releases Interaction Investment by App RPG Event Investment Interaction Events by Genre

REVENUE MOVEMENT 16

RPG Monthly Revenue

NEW CONTENT 18

Content Releases

MARKET WATCH 21

Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases

APPENDIX 26

Premium Partnerships RPG Mechanics Taxonomy

OCTOBER

2020

3

IMPACT DRIVERSFeatures and events that boost revenue, retention, or downloads

4

RPG > EVENTS > CLUBS

Team Strategy Event Abyssal Expedition in AFK Arena

AFK Arena

Dow

nloa

ds p

er D

ay

10K

20K

30K

Reve

nue

per D

ay

$50K

$100K

$150K

5/8/20 5/22/20 6/5/20 6/19/20 7/3/20 7/17/20 7/31/20 8/14/20 8/28/20 9/11/20 9/25/20 10/9/20 10/23/20

Revenue Downloads

Abyssal Expedition: Vault of Time Abyssal Expedition 2Abyssal Expedition Update

& Esperian Idols

REVENUE ANALYSIS

5

AFK Arena averaged +18% revenue and +191% downloads during the three Abyssal Expedition Events. The third Abyssal Expedition overlapped with the Esperian Idols interaction event. Download spikes were not due to the app being featured on the App Store.

Graph data is iOS, U.S. only.

Releases

5/28–6/20: Abyssal Expedition: Vault of Time (initial release) • 5/28–5/31: Registration* • 6/1–6/20: Event

8/5–8/28: Abyssal Expedition 2 • 8/5–8/12: Registration • 8/13–8/28: Event

9/29–10/16: Esperian Idols 9/29–10/20: Abyssal Expedition Update • 9/29–10/2: Registration • 10/3–10/20: Event

*Due to a unique rolling start, event stage dates are approximate.

FEATURE TEARDOWN

A strategic challenge event matches players into teams during a registration period. A premium pass adds rewards for players who reach the two highest event ranks.

6

Continued on the next page

3 5

2

4

1

Details • Prior to the event, players register alone or with their clubs. • Registration occurs in pre-registration and normal registration phases. • Players can spend premium currency to purchase a premium pass (1). • The premium pass adds premium currency rewards for reaching the two

highest ranks during the event. • Registered players are matched into 70-person teams. • Club members who pre-register together are placed on the same team. • Premium pass holders are only teamed up with other premium pass holders.• Teams begin the event on a rolling basis as they form.

• During the event, players defeat enemies to capture settlements (video and 2). • Players can abandon settlements or cultivate them for resources. • Captured settlements provide relics that boost heroes (3). • Completed challenges, including team boss battles, fill a meter to advance

players' ranks for rewards (4 and video). • A leaderboard shows the first five teams to complete certain tasks (5).

21

FEATURE TEARDOWN (CONT.)

7

Details • A premium event currency, Dragon Crystals, allows players to bid on items

in team and global shops (1). • Dragon Crystals are awarded for global leaderboard ranks but otherwise

must be purchased. • Achievement milestones add items to the team shop at fixed prices (2). • Bidding team members roll dice to determine the winner of the auction.

• Unsold items are moved to a global shop and offered at higher prices (3). • Global shop items' prices are reduced every 12 hours. • Unsold items in the global shop expire after five days.

• Sold items from either shop award a secondary event currency, Bound Dragon Crystals, to all team members (4). • Bound Dragon Crystals can be spent in a third event store (5).

Additional Information • See the Abyssal Expedition Update, Abyssal Expedition 2, and Abyssal

Expedition: Vault of Time libraries for more images and videos.

Three different event stores offer a pseudo-auction system using premium and secondary event currencies.

3 54

Difficult requirements for players with premium passes may drive additional purchases. Abyssal Expedition's premium pass only adds rewards for the top two event ranks (1). Because this pass costs diamonds to purchase and awards diamonds at the target ranks, it allows players to voluntarily raise the stakes by essentially betting on their performance.

This appeals to the highest-spending RPG player types—Steven Social, Caleb Competition, and Ethan Epic—who are very competitive and crave difficult challenges.1 The two high-spenders we interviewed backed this up. One said his guild "knew it was going to be difficult," but it "brought [them] together... It was a really good experience."2

These players may even make additional purchases to reach premium pass reward goals due to the sunk cost fallacy. Studies have found that people who have already invested in a project are more likely to keep investing and more likely to think they will succeed.3

Design clear visual distinctions between items with different functions. The event's two currencies are only distinguished by a tiny padlock icon on one of them. To make things worse, the currency without the padlock has a yellow spot that is almost identical to the padlock (2). As a result, the two are very hard to tell apart.

UX researcher Celia Hodent recommends always using different forms for items with different functions.4 In this case, a distinct second currency, like "Militia Insignia," would reduce the burden on tutorials by creating obvious differences between the two currencies in appearance and application. After all, players want challenging gameplay, not challenging interfaces.

Use illustrations and accurate titles to explain complex mechanics. The novel gameplay, event stores, and currencies in the Abyssal Expedition are quite complicated. The low- and medium-spending players we interviewed both had trouble with the event because of a "mishmash of game mechanics" that they "couldn't totally figure [out]."5 A high-spender agreed: "It was so different from the rest of the game that some people definitely didn't get it."6

Shop names like "Militia Trade" add to the ambiguity, since players aren't trading but rolling dice to buy rewards. A more accurate title, like "Militia Lottery," would simplify the learning process by aligning players' expectations with their experience.

Similarly, a few illustrations—like a chart showing the progression from team to global shops—would improve the dense tutorials and increase accessibility. A combination of text and images has been shown to improve learning by 36% compared to text alone.7

1 Liquid & Grit RPG Personas Report, p. 16, 18, & 21 2 Subject A; Age 28 male, $225/month spend, 5 hours/week playtime 3 Throwing Good Money After Bad, p. 729–730

4 The Gamer's Brain, p. 125–126 5 Subject B; Age 27 male, $60/month spend, 10 hours/week playtime Subject C; Age 32 male, $10/month spend, 8 hours/week playtime

6 Subject A ($225/month spend) 7 Effects of text illustrations 8

PRODUCT INSIGHTSFor this report, Liquid & Grit interviewed four AFK Arena players who spend $10–$225 per month.

1

2

9

RPG > EVENTS > INTERACTIONS

Hero Popularity Contest Esperian Idols in AFK Arena

Details • During an initial stage, each player votes for their eight favorite heroes (1 and video). • The eight heroes with the most votes enter a single-elimination tournament (2). • Players collect tickets through a daily quiz and a competition event (3). • Tickets allow players to vote for their favorite hero in each round (4 and video). • Votes fill a meter that awards chests at milestones (5).

• All players will be awarded a new skin and avatar frame for the winning hero (6 and 7). Additional Information • See the Esperian Idols library for more images and videos.

FEATURE TEARDOWN

Players collect tickets to vote for their favorite heroes in a tournament-style competition. The winning hero receives a new skin and avatar frame.

10

31

8 Liquid & Grit RPG Personas Report, p. 15 & 19

RPG player types who enjoy character customization, like Chloe Casual and Felicia Fiction, also want to make decisions that impact the game world and story.8 Adding a narrative justification for the event would likely further increase its appeal.

7

2

654

11

Tracked RPG Apps: AFK Arena, BLEACH Brave Souls, Dragon Ball Legends, Empires & Puzzles, Epic Seven, Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire, Fire Emblem Heroes, Guns of Glory, King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Last Shelter: Survival, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, MARVEL Strike Force, RAID: Shadow Legends, Rise of Kingdoms, Star Trek Fleet Command, Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, Summoners War

TRENDSInvestment trends for event and feature releases

Interaction Event Releases

Num

ber o

f Rel

ease

s

5

10

15

Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20

INTERACTION EVENTS RISE AND FALL

12

After an exceptional peak of 13 releases in Q1'20, interaction events fell back to two releases in both Q2'20 and Q3'20.

Interaction Investment by App (Past 18 Months)

Perc

enta

ge o

f Eve

nt R

elea

ses

2%

4%

6%

8%

Lords M

obile: W

ar Kingdom

Raid: Shadow Le

gends

Summoners War

AFK Arena

Epic Seve

n

Star Trek F

leet Command

Rise of K

ingdoms

Fire Emblem Heroes

MARVEL Strik

e Force

BLEACH Brave

Souls

Dragon Ball Legends

AFK ARENA NEAR THE TOP OF INTERACTION RELEASES

13

AFK Arena invests in interactions at nearly double the average rate of tracked apps. Lords Mobile: War Kingdom is the only app for which interactions represent more than 5% of total event investment.

Average (1.7%)

RPG Event Investment (Past 6 Months)

Num

ber o

f Rel

ease

s

30

60

90

120

150

180

Rew

ards

Clu

bs

Cha

lleng

es

Colle

ctio

ns

Purc

hase

s

Que

sts

Not

ices

Acce

lera

tors

Com

petit

ions

Miss

ions

Min

i-Gam

es

Leve

ls

Inte

ract

ions

Expa

nsio

ns

INTERACTION EVENTS ARE SCARCE

14

Interaction events are the second least frequently released event type in tracked RPG apps. In the past six months, interaction events saw fewer than one quarter as many releases as the next least common event type, levels.

Interaction Events by Genre (Past 18 Months)

Num

ber o

f Rel

ease

s

5

10

15

20

25

30

RPG Casino Puzzle

RPG INVESTS THE MOST IN INTERACTIONS

15

Although interaction investment is low across genres, tracked RPGs released more interaction events than casino and puzzle apps combined in the past 18 months.

16

REVENUE MOVEMENTRevenue changes within apps and across genres

RPG Monthly Revenue

Reve

nue

$100M

$125M

$150M

Jan '20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

RPG REVENUE DECLINE SLOWS

17

RPG revenue may be leveling out: September saw the smallest MoM U.S. revenue decrease among tracked RPGs since May, less than one-third the decrease of any other month by percentage.

Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. MoM = Month over month

18

NEW CONTENTNew heroes, equipment, and abilities

CONTENT RELEASES I

19

2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

9/1 9/15 9/28

9/1 9/28 9/28 9/13 9/27 9/16 9/30

9/2 9/2 9/9

9/16 9/30 9/16 9/30

9/1 9/24 9/17

9/3 9/10 9/10 9/17 9/24 9/17

Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Raine Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Theowyn — AFK Arena hero Lucretia — AFK Arena hero (1) Zaphrael — AFK Arena hero (2) New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities The Orient Society Summons: Guardian Fairies — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes (3) Thousand-Year Blood War Round 11 — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes Zenkai Awakening - Perfect Form Cell — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Zenkai Awakening - Super Saiyan 2 Gohan (Youth) — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Zenkai Awakening - Android #18 — Dragon Ball Legends abilities (4) Awakened Hiya! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Humph! Memory No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Legends All Star Vol. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends heroes Legends Justice Against Evil — Dragon Ball Legends heroes Bai Yeong — Empires & Puzzles hero Bera — Empires & Puzzles hero (5) Free Spirit Tieria Improvements — Epic Seven abilities Two New Exclusive Equipment — Epic Seven equipment A Little Queen's Huge Crown — Epic Seven equipment (6) Shepherd of the Hollow — Epic Seven equipment Manica of Control — Epic Seven equipment Wall of Order — Epic Seven equipment Last Rider Krau — Epic Seven hero

20

CONTENT RELEASES II2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

9/24 9/6 9/8 9/8

9/10 9/18 9/19 9/25 9/30 9/14

9/2 9/27 9/27 9/29

9/8 9/21 9/16 9/16 9/16 9/16 9/18

9/3 9/23

9/8 9/8

9/28

Landy — Epic Seven hero Weapon Refinery Update — Fire Emblem Heroes abilities Eldigan: Strutting Lion — Fire Emblem Heroes hero (1) To Stay Dreaming — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (2) Alm: Hero of Prophecy — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Despair and Hope — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes Petrine: Icy Flame-Lancer — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Julia: Naga's Blood — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Plumeria: Lewd Dream — Fire Emblem Heroes hero R7 Kingmaker Curiosity — Guns of Glory equipment Empyrean Set — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare equipment Catigern — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare hero (3) Madoc — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare hero Character Updates — MARVEL Strike Force abilities Electro — MARVEL Strike Force hero Doctor Octopus — MARVEL Strike Force hero (4) Champions and Battle Fixes — Raid: Shadow Legends abilities Huge Arena Rebalance — Raid: Shadow Legends abilities Artifact Forge Artifact Sets — Raid: Shadow Legends equipment Saito — Raid: Shadow Legends hero (5) Drokgul the Gaunt — Raid: Shadow Legends hero Matilda of Flanders — Rise of Kingdoms hero Mulan — Rise of Kingdoms hero USS Discovery — Star Trek Fleet Command equipment (6) Discovery Officers — Star Trek Fleet Command heroes Monster Skill Balancing Update — Summoners War abilities

21

MARKET WATCHNew apps and notable releases from established competitors

The Witcher: Monster Slayer by SpokkoApp Details • Players navigate an AR world map set in the world of The Witcher franchise (1). • Quests advance players through original stories (2). • Gameplay revolves around tracking and hunting monsters (3 and 4). • Monster types are determined by the environment, weather, and time of day (5). • A first-person combat system is controlled by touch and swipe gestures (6).

Launch Information • Soft-launched on 8/31/20 in New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines • Average daily revenue since launch: $6 • Average daily downloads since launch: 8 • View The Witcher: Monster Slayer on the App Store

SOFT-LAUNCH APP

22

31

6

2

54

Liquid & Grit's Take The Witcher franchise has built a loyal following among PC and console gamers with its high-quality storytelling, deep world-building, and challenging combat. While it may seem like these hardcore RPG players could be slow to embrace a casual mobile adaptation, Monster Slayer has a few solid points in its favor. For one, developer Spokko is owned by The Witcher creator CD Projekt, Europe's most valuable video game company.9 CD Projekt brings not only deep pockets but also a stellar reputation among players. And AR gameplay is both a hot trend and a good fit for the franchise's open-world exploration. Still, the AR map formula is unproven in this market. Monster Slayer is clearly a big play; what remains to be seen is whether it will be a big hit or a big bust.

9 CD Projekt is now Europe’s most valuable game company ahead of Ubisoft

Genshin Impact by miHoYoApp Details • Gameplay occurs across an open world and in instanced dungeons (1). • An action combat system allows players to switch between characters to create attack combinations (2). • Challenges require a regenerating currency. • Completed challenges level up players and unlock more challenges (3). • Enemy strength and rewards scale with players' levels.

• Paid gacha pulls award characters, weapons, and resources. • A co-op mode allows up to four players to team up in the world and select dungeons (4). • Cross-platform play is available on Android, iOS, Windows, and PS4.

Launch Information • Released worldwide on 9/24/20 • 2nd highest-grossing RPG as of 10/1/20 • Average daily U.S. revenue since launch: $776,312 • Average daily U.S. downloads since launch: 89,954 • View Genshin Impact on the App Store

BREAKOUT APP

23

1

2

3

4

Genshin Impact grossed over $100M in its first 12 days, reportedly covering its entire development cost.10

10 Grossing over $100m, Genshin Impact recoups development costs in two weeks

NOTABLE RELEASES I

24

1

2

3

4

App Release Description

AFK Arena

Artifact Blessing accelerator feature

• Artifacts contain up to eight slots. • Each slot lets players assign a hero to receive the artifact's effects (1 and video). • Artifact upgrades unlock more slots.

Hero Growth Bundles

mission feature

• This mission feature is unlocked by completing The Big Torch in the Field of Stars feature. • Players progress through reward tiers by unlocking and upgrading specific heroes (video). • A second set of rewards can be purchased individually for each tier (2). • The number of available tiers is determined by players' VIP levels.

Fire Emblem Heroes

Frontline Phalanx competition event

• Players send heroes to help non-player characters defeat a boss (3 and video). • Players' scores are determined by the number of support heroes sent, the outcome of the battle,

the use of special shields, and more. • Rewards are based on the use of support heroes, players' scores, and the outcome of the battle.

Last Shelter: Survival

Operation: Oblivion

club event

• Clubs compete to earn points by expanding territory and occupying strongholds on a map. • Escorting a key carrier across the map awards a large number of points (4 and video). • The first player to arrive at the key seizes it for their club. • During the escort, the carrier stops in two allied locations for a limited time. • Protecting the carrier until the end of the second stop completes the escort. • A timer counts down until the next key becomes available.

• Players receive rewards for both club performance and individual contributions.

NOTABLE RELEASES II

25

1

2

3

App Release Description

MARVEL Strike Force

Iso-8 accelerator feature

• Level 55+ players collect Iso-8 crystals from daily logins, purchases, and a new campaign. • Equipping five crystals to a hero allows players to assign that hero one of five classes (video). • Classes grant bonuses and skills and can be changed at any time. • Combining lower-level crystals awards upgraded crystals. • Upgrading all of a hero's crystals increases that hero's class level (1).

Raid: Shadow Legends

Artifact Forge accelerator feature

• Players collect materials from arena battles, faction war battles, events, tournaments, and more. • Materials can be crafted into randomly generated equipment (2 and video). • Players choose a rank range and target set for crafted equipment. • Four charm types increase the chance of crafting equipment of a specific type, rarity, rank, or

substat. • Charms are acquired from advanced quests, tournaments, purchases, and events.

Summoners War

Repeat Battle System

conflict feature

• Players can activate up to 10 consecutive auto-battles. • Auto-battles allow players to engage in non-battle tasks like summons and upgrades. • A dedicated UI lets players watch the battles on a smaller screen (3 and video).

Quickly review all features and events

Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases.

APPENDIX

26

27

PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS

Liquid & Grit partners with these premier market research and analytics companies to infuse our reports with the most relevant and detailed gaming user personas, data, and statistics available.

Quadrant Strategies Kinrate Analytics Sensor Tower

Market Research Quadrant Strategies

Player Personas Kinrate Analytics

Mobile App Store Intelligence Sensor Tower

Quadrant Strategies is a market research consultancy that uses research to help the world's most prominent technology, gaming, and entertainment companies develop strategies for building their user base, increasing user engagement and spend, and strengthening their marketing and brand plans.

We do that using a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, including gamer segmentation and persona development, feature testing, message creation, and loyalty and engagement modeling. The work of our senior leadership goes back many years, and includes long-term engagements for console and gaming-PC hardware-makers, individual games in a range of genres, and across consoles, PCs, and mobile, and for some of the top game franchises.

Kinrate Analytics offers game developers, consultants, publishers, and cloud gaming operators the best cross-platform game recommendation engine for targeted marketing, as well as a novel profiling-as-a-service solution for intelligent market segmentation and social networking.

Other services include advanced market prediction analyses for identifying emergent gaming trends and access to unique AI-enhanced data of 140 thousand game titles and 48 million game players.

The products of Kinrate Analytics have been developed in university-led research projects in collaboration with economists, psychologists, game scholars, and data scientists.

Sensor Tower is relied upon by financial analysts, VCs, and publishers who need to leverage data to identify the fastest-growing apps, emerging markets, and more.

Clients harness Sensor Tower's suite of app intelligence tools to: ‣ Evaluate app economies and app vitality. ‣ Drive organic growth with the leading App Store

Optimization platform. ‣ Get the best global download and revenue

estimates for the App Store and Google Play. ‣ Discover top creatives and better shape user

acquisition strategy.

RPG MECHANICS TAXONOMY

28

Family Definition

Accelerators Increases the power, impact, or efficiency of play

Banks Saves a % of spend that can be unlocked later

Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E)

Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete

Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups

Collections A set of items players collect (often for a completion prize)

Competitions Players competing against other players

Conflicts Players engaging in battle with their characters 

Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or a feature

Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items

Custom Design Options to customize aesthetics

Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc.

Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys

Family Definition

Hazards Level elements/blockers that make levels more difficult

Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction

Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards

Levels Anything to do with leveling

Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within a game (e.g., scratch cards)

Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must complete

Notices Feature or product announcements

Other Miscellaneous features and outliers

Profiles Players' setups, profiles, settings, and controls

Purchases Anything to do with purchases

Quests Tasks that players complete to progress along a map

Rewards Rewards players receive for engagement or spend (other than those in the bonuses family)

"Paradise unearned is but a land of shadows!"

— Silver Surfer, Silver Surfer #1

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Brett.Nowak@LiquidandGrit.com

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