Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations

RPG REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FEBRUARY

2021

IMPACT DRIVER 3

Hero Leveling Mission Feature Hero Growth Bundles in AFK Arena Product Insights

IMPACT TRENDS 8

Feature Releases by Type Feature Revenue Impact Feature Market Share Impact

NEW CONTENT 12

Content Releases

MARKET WATCH 15

Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases

APPENDIX 21

AFK Arena Release Schedule Liquid & Grit RPG Personas Premium Partnerships RPG Mechanics Taxonomy

�3

IMPACT DRIVERFeatures and events that boost revenue, retention, or downloads

�4

RPG > FEATURES > MISSIONS

Hero Leveling Mission Feature Hero Growth Bundles in AFK Arena

AFK Arena

Dow

nloa

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ay

10K

20K

30K

40K

Reve

nue

per D

ay

$100K

$200K

$300K

$400K

8/31/20 9/14/20 9/28/20 10/12/20 10/26/20 11/9/20 11/23/20 12/7/20 12/21/20 1/4/21 1/18/21 2/1/21 2/15/21

Revenue Downloads

�5

REVENUE ANALYSIS

AFK Arena's revenue grew an average of +1% MoM and +20% 2Mo2M during the first seven Hero Growth Bundles. A download spike in October 2020 likely contributed to revenue growth.

XMoXM = X months over X months. Graph data is iOS, U.S. only.

Zaphrael & LucretiaTheowyn Hero Growth Bundle

Mortas

Alna

See the Appendix for a full release schedule.

Pippa

Silas

�6

FEATURE TEARDOWN

Each season, players unlock and level up a newly released hero. Level milestones award free prizes as well as premium prizes that must be purchased individually.

Details • Each season revolves around a newly released hero. • Players must unlock the hero in order to participate in the season. • Players increase the hero's ascension tier by leveling and merging

heroes through core gameplay. • Each ascension tier unlocks a prize tier with free and premium prizes (1

and video). • Prize tiers require certain VIP levels to unlock. • Players can only see the prize tiers that they qualify for based on their

VIP levels. • Premium prizes must be purchased individually and cost $4.99–

$49.99. • There are 12 prize tiers in total.

• The seventh free prize tier awards an exclusive animated avatar (2). Additional Information • See the Hero Growth Bundles library for more images and videos.

1 2

1 Why Envy Outperforms Admiration, p. 790–791 2 The Idiosyncratic Fit Heuristic: Effort Advantage as a Determinant of Consumer Response to Loyalty Programs, p. 461–465 3 Negative Effects of Extrinsic Rewards on Intrinsic Motivation: More Smoke Than Fire, 26–27 �7

Hide goals that are too far out of reach. The five top Hero Growth Bundles are only available to players with the highest VIP levels—which are very difficult to obtain. AFK Arena's decision to hide prize tiers that are beyond players' current VIP levels may boost engagement, because research has found that people are demotivated by goals that are too far above their abilities (1).1

However, the same research also shows that people are motivated by aspirational goals that are actually attainable. So when designing VIP-locked features, consider showing only the next one or two tiers beyond players' current eligibility to give players a reason to increase their VIP levels without making them feel overwhelmed.

Emphasize players' advantages over others. According to one study, people are up to 40% more likely to participate in loyalty programs when they feel like they have an edge over other participants in terms of their ability to complete the program.2 You can use this effect to make VIP purchase offers more desirable by emphasizing the advantage that eligible players have over non-eligible players. When appropriate, you could even show how many players have access to high-level offers, e.g., "Only 10% of players have unlocked this."

Add bonus conditions to each reward tier. Hero Growth Bundles exist at the intersection of AFK Arena's VIP program, hero content releases, and purchase events. This interrelatedness makes each individual feature more meaningful, as their requirements and consequences reverberate throughout the app. But because the Hero Growth Bundle progression is entirely determined by hero tiers and VIP levels, the feature functions primarily as a reward/purchase hub without really adding any unique goals of its own.

When designing this kind of leveling progression, consider including optional, hero-specific challenges in each tier—like dealing a certain amount of damage with that hero or using specific items. Optional challenges increase engagement from high achievers, because players are most motivated by performance-based challenges when they don't feel forced to perform.3

You can see some examples of hero-specific challenges in another AFK Arena event, The Misty Valley, and Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes' Clash on Kamino event, which grew revenue +72% WoW (2).

PRODUCT INSIGHTS1

2

�8

Tracked RPG Apps: AFK Arena, BLEACH Brave Souls, Dragon Ball Legends, Empires & Puzzles, Epic Seven, Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire, Fire Emblem Heroes, Game of Sultans, Guns of Glory, King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Last Shelter: Survival, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, MARVEL Strike Force, RAID: Shadow Legends, Rise of Kingdoms, Star Trek Fleet Command, Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, Summoners War

IMPACT TRENDSRevenue and market share impacts for event and feature releases

�9

MISSIONS RELEASED MODERATELY OFTEN

Missions were in the middle of the pack for RPG feature releases in the past 12 months. Notably, however, missions had the third most standalone releases (releases that did not overlap with other feature or event releases on the same day).

RPG Feature Releases (Past 12 Months)

Num

ber o

f Rel

ease

s

25

50

75

100

Clu

bs

Oth

er

Expa

nsio

ns

Flow

s

Leve

ls

Cur

renc

ies

Com

petit

ions

Cosm

etic

s

Col

lect

ions

Acce

lera

tors

Miss

ions

Rew

ards

Not

ices

Que

sts

Profi

les

Purc

hase

s

Cha

lleng

es

Inte

ract

ions

Min

i-Gam

es

Bonu

ses

Cus

tom

Des

ign

Single Multiple

"Multiple" indicates releases that coincided with other feature or event releases on the same day. "Single" indicates releases that did not.

�10

MISSIONS ARE TIED TO STRONG REVENUE GROWTH

Mission features corresponded to the second highest average MoM revenue growth in the past 12 months among standalone feature releases.

Impact models are made by Liquid & Grit by combining our data with revenue data from Sensor Tower. Only feature types with 15 or more standalone releases in the past 12 months are shown. MoM = Month over month. WoW = Week over week.

Revenue growth is the average percentage change in an app's gross revenue for a given time period following a new release.

Revenue Growth MoM (Past 12 Months)

Expansions

Missions

Flows

Clubs

Notices

0% 3% 6% 9% 12%

Revenue Growth WoW (Past 12 Months)

Expansions

Missions

Flows

Clubs

Notices

-12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18%

�11

MISSIONS LEAD IN MARKET SHARE IMPACT

Mission features had the highest average MoM and WoW market share revenue impact over the past 12 months among standalone feature releases.

Impact models are made by Liquid & Grit by combining our data with revenue data from Sensor Tower. Only feature types with 15 or more standalone releases in the past 12 months are shown. MoM = Month over month. WoW = Week over week.

Market Share Revenue MoM (Past 12 Months)

Missions

Expansions

Flows

Notices

Clubs

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Market Share Revenue WoW (Past 12 Months)

Missions

Expansions

Flows

Notices

Clubs

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Market share growth is the average percentage change in an app's revenue market share for a given time period following a new release.

�12

NEW CONTENTNew heroes, equipment, and abilities

CONTENT RELEASES I

�13

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

1/12 1/12 1/26 1/26 1/26 1/13 1/16 1/31

1/6 1/13 1/13 1/20 1/20 1/27 1/27 1/31

1/1 1/18 1/19 1/28

1/7 1/21 1/21 1/28 1/28

Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Waistband of Resilience — AFK Arena equipment Carnage — AFK Arena equipment Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Kren - The Fanatical — AFK Arena hero (1) New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities Fierce Battle Summons — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes (2) The Machine Society: Magic and Steam — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes Zenkai Awakening - Super Saiyan God Vegeta — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Awakened Well done, Goku...!! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Zenkai Awakening - Piccolo — Dragon Ball Legends abilities The Last Hope Standing — Dragon Ball Legends heroes (3) Zenkai Awakening - Android #21 — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Awakened Energy Absorb! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Zenkai Awakening - Super Saiyan 2 Trunks — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Legends All Star Vol. 4 — Dragon Ball Legends heroes Bertila — Empires & Puzzles hero (4) New Hero Costumes — Empires & Puzzles equipment Hero Balance Update — Empires & Puzzles abilities Thor — Empires & Puzzles hero (5) Zealot Carmainerose Specialty Change — Epic Seven abilities Archdemon's Shadow — Epic Seven hero Hero & Artifact Balance Adjustment — Epic Seven abilities Knowledge Seed — Epic Seven equipment Politis — Epic Seven hero (6)

2

6

4

1

5

3

CONTENT RELEASES II

�14

2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

1/1 1/1 1/6 1/8 1/9

1/10 1/18 1/19 1/25 1/28

1/4 1/20 1/13 1/14

1/5 1/15 1/19 1/25

1/6 1/14 1/14 1/12 1/14 1/13 1/28

Keaton: Resolved Wolfskin — Fire Emblem Heroes hero New Year: ω Special Heroes — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (1) Weapon Refinery Update — Fire Emblem Heroes abilities New Heroes: Shared Purpose — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (2) Veld: Manfroy's Rock — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Eldigan: Lionheart — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Dark Desert Rituals — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes Kris: Ardent Firebrand — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Tiki: Dragon Scion — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Seiros: Saint of Legend — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Grade 9 Phantom Gemstone — Guns of Glory equipment (3) Grade 8 Oracle Statue — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare equipment The Prophet: Yolanda Dixon — Last Shelter: Survival hero The Huntress: Hilda Atwood — Last Shelter: Survival hero Red Guardian — MARVEL Strike Force hero (4) Kitty Pryde — MARVEL Strike Force hero Agent Coulson Star Unlock Update — MARVEL Strike Force ability Iceman — MARVEL Strike Force hero Champion AI Fixes — RAID: Shadow Legends abilities 14 New Champions — RAID: Shadow Legends heroes Iron Brago — RAID: Shadow Legends hero (5) The Original Series Part 1 Officers — Star Trek Fleet Command heroes (6) The Armorer — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes hero Monster Skill Balancing — Summoners War abilities Artifact Sub-Properties Improvement — Summoners War equipment

�15

MARKET WATCHNew apps and notable releases from established competitors

�16

Top War: Battle Game by Topwar StudioApp Details • Top War: Battle Game combines strategy RPG gameplay with innovative

merge mechanics and a casual-style UI. • Players merge items, troops, and buildings to level up (1). • New merges are unlocked by spending currency on research (2). • Players spend currency or defeat armies to unlock additional land (3). • The amount of unlockable land is determined by players' XP levels.

• A world map offers battles against bots and other players for rewards (4). • Hero Bond challenges for specific sets of 2–6 heroes grant combat boosts (5). • Filling requests from club members awards soft currency that can be

exchanged in a club store. • A chat feature includes a Google Translate option to communicate with

players from around the world. Launch Information • Released worldwide on 12/31/19 • 6th highest-grossing RPG app as of 2/1/21 • Average daily U.S. revenue (90 days): $122,027 • Average daily U.S. downloads (90 days): 14,777 • View Top War: Battle Game on the App Store • View Top War: Battle Game in the Feature Database for more images

and videos

BREAKOUT APP

1 2

4 53

�17

FAIRY TAIL: Forces Unite! by Garena Mobile PrivateApp Details • In this turn-based MMORPG, players explore an open world and complete quests to progress through

a story based on the FAIRY TAIL manga and anime franchise (1). • Upgradeable heroes come in nine classes. • Battles include lite tactical elements like hero formations (2). • A shop allows players to trade with each other. • Robust player interaction features include clubs, voice chat, and an in-game marriage system (3). • Other features include crafting, PvP, guild quests, unlockable outfits and mounts, pets, a battle pass,

and a variety of bonuses (4). Launch Information • Soft-launched on 12/16/20 in Thailand • Average daily revenue since launch: $11,751 • Average daily downloads since launch: 2,623 • View FAIRY TAIL: Forces Unite! on the App Store

SOFT-LAUNCH APP

1

2

43

Liquid & Grit's Take

The FAIRY TAIL IP spans over a decade of manga publication, five years of anime, a feature film, and multiple video games.

While this may not translate to success in Western markets, FAIRY TAIL: Forces Unite! has been in the top 10 highest-grossing RPGs in Thailand since soft-launching in December. Considering its high production value and robust features, we expect FAIRY TAIL: Forces Unite! to perform similarly well in other Asian markets.

NOTABLE RELEASES I

�18

App Release Description

AFK Arena

Reinforcements reward event

• Players choose a high-tier hero to unlock for a trial period (1). • Trial heroes' levels and equipment are determined by players' current heroes (video). • Players can change the trial hero for free every 48 hours. • Players can also spend diamonds to change the hero immediately.

• Trial heroes cannot be upgraded, and they disappear at the end of the event.

War of Wits competition event

• Players battle in timed PvP duels using hero and ability cards. • Players start with two cards each and take turns choosing eight more from a face-up draw pile. • The draw pile replaces picked cards with new cards. • Each pick increases the level of all remaining cards in the draw pile by one (2). • Duplicate picks merge into one card with the sum of their levels.

• Each player places five hero cards in the arena, and all abilities are automatically applied (video). • Won battles award points and items. • Global and friend leaderboards rank players based on their points.

Epic SevenEpic Seven: Arise Celebration Event mini-game event

• Completed battles fill a meter for cards and energy at milestones. • Cards grant attempts for a mini-game. • Up to four cards can be used per day, and unused cards disappear the next day. • The mini-game board has nine disks that each have a hero on one side (3). • Each attempt flips over a random row or column of disks. • Playing four times in a day awards a prize based on the number of heroes displayed.

• Mini-game attempts fill a meter for special rewards at milestones (video). • Earning all special rewards grants a ticket for a raffle tied to the app's board game launch. • Players must upload a screenshot of the ticket to the developer's web platform to enter. • Raffle prizes include the new board game and related merchandise.

1

2

3

NOTABLE RELEASES II

�19

App Release Description

Epic SevenWatch to Earn bonus feature

• Players can watch rewarded ads to earn energy up to five times per day. • Ads are accessed via the event menu in the lobby (1).

Guns of GloryWandering Merchant

reward event

• An event shop lets players exchange certain items in their inventory for event currency (2). • Players can spend event currency to purchase items in the event shop (video). • Unused event currency carries over to the next iteration of the event. • Tradeable items, prices, and purchase limits change with each event iteration.

King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare

Kingdom Covenant club event

• Players with strongholds level 30 and higher compete to deal the most damage to an enemy. • Kingdom-wide leaderboards rank players based on the amount of damage dealt (video). • Players can make multiple attempts to improve their score.

• The top-ranked player in each kingdom becomes their kingdom's "envoy." • Each kingdom receives two ratings—one based on total stars earned and another based on

player participation. • Envoys of top-rated kingdoms become leaders of kingdom groups. • Envoys of lower-rated kingdoms must apply to join these groups. • Group leaders can approve or reject applications (3). • Groups can contain up to four kingdoms, but kingdoms' combined ratings cannot exceed

specified limits. • Kingdoms not accepted into any group are placed into one automatically.

1

2

3

App Release Description

Lords Mobile: War Kingdom

Kingdom Labors mission feature

• Players complete challenges to earn points. • Challenges are replaced once per week.

• Points unlock reward tiers at milestones (video). • Players who complete all tiers earn a bonus prize for every 100 additional points (1). • A $4.99 season pass unlocks a second set of rewards for each tier and bonus prize, as well as a

discount for the next month's season pass. • Season pass rewards include an exclusive accelerator that automatically completes certain tasks.

RAID: Shadow Legends

Daily Login Rewards Update

bonus feature

• Collecting 270 daily login rewards unlocks an additional 30-day login reward calendar. • The 30-day reward calendar starts over after each completion (2 and video).

Rise of Kingdoms

Hunt for History mini-game event

• Players earn hammers by completing challenges, spending gems, or buying IAP bundles. • Hammers award picks for a pick'em mini-game (3). • Players designate a level reward and can change their selection at any time (video). • Finding the level reward unlocks the next level. • Every fifth floor contains better rewards.

Summoners War

World Arena Update

competition feature

• A real-time arena mode now offers challenges that award medals (4 and video). • Players also earn medals based on their rating at the end of each season. • Challenge progress resets at the beginning of each season.

• Medals are used to purchase items in the arena shop.

NOTABLE RELEASES III

�20

Quickly review all features and events

Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases.

1

2

3

4

APPENDIX

�21

AFK Arena

Dow

nloa

ds p

er D

ay

10K

20K

30K

40K

Reve

nue

per D

ay

$100K

$200K

$300K

$400K

8/31/20 9/14/20 9/28/20 10/12/20 10/26/20 11/9/20 11/23/20 12/7/20 12/21/20 1/4/21 1/18/21 2/1/21 2/15/21

Revenue Downloads

Zaphrael & LucretiaTheowyn Hero Growth Bundle

Mortas

Alna

Pippa

Silas

�22

AFK ARENA RELEASE SCHEDULE Releases

9/3/20: Hero Growth Bundles mission feature 9/3/20–9/28/20: Hero Theowyn 9/29/20–11/30/20: Heroes Zaphrael and Lucretia 11/3/20–1/1/21: Hero Pippa 11/17/20–1/17/21: Hero Silas 11/30/20–1/29/21: Hero Mortas 12/15/20–2/14/21: Hero Alna 1/26/21–ongoing: Hero Kren 2/6/21–ongoing: Hero Respen

Graph data is iOS, U.S. only.

�23

LIQUID & GRIT RPG PERSONAS

We collected and analyzed survey data from 1,415 mobile RPG players in the U.S. The results produced seven RPG player personas with distinct values, gameplay preferences, and spending habits.

See the full RPG Personas Report for detailed breakdowns of each player type.

Felicia Fiction seeks immersion through single-player stories with strong aesthetics. She likes turn-based or action RPGs that involve customization, meaningful choices, and emotionally difficult challenges. She spends money to personalize her experience.

Caleb Competition is drawn to multiplayer competitions, clubs, and hardcore gaming. He prefers MMORPGs with action gameplay and difficult challenges. As a result of his competitiveness, he makes purchases to be the best.

Andrew Achievement likes completing single-player tasks and overcoming challenges. His favorite subgenre is puzzle RPGs with innovative challenges and entertaining mini-games. He spends money to advance his progress.

Ethan Epic is a hardcore gamer who thrives on difficult challenges in both story-driven solo experiences and multiplayer competitions. Ethan plays the widest range of RPG subgenres and strives to optimize his play with out-of-the-box tactics and strategies. He spends primarily to support the games he likes.

Chloe Casual prefers single-player puzzle RPGs with casual mechanics. She likes custom cosmetics and spends primarily for personalization or access to special events.

Dean Desktop turns to mobile for convenient, short bursts of play. As a result, he is the lowest-spending player persona and is primarily interested in story-driven, single-player experiences. He likes action, survival, and turn-based RPGs with meaningful choices and active combat.

Steven Social is driven by social interactions, including both collaborative and competitive activities. He is the highest-spending persona and prefers MMORPGs or fighting RPGs. He spends money to be the best and show off to others.

�24

PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS

Liquid & Grit partners with these premier market research and analytics companies to infuse our reports with the most relevant and detailed gaming user personas, data, and statistics available.

Quadrant Strategies Kinrate Analytics Sensor Tower

Market Research Quadrant Strategies

Player Personas Kinrate Analytics

Mobile App Store Intelligence Sensor Tower

Quadrant Strategies is a market research consultancy that uses research to help the world's most prominent technology, gaming, and entertainment companies develop strategies for building their user base, increasing user engagement and spend, and strengthening their marketing and brand plans.

We do that using a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, including gamer segmentation and persona development, feature testing, message creation, and loyalty and engagement modeling. The work of our senior leadership goes back many years, and includes long-term engagements for console and gaming-PC hardware-makers, individual games in a range of genres, and across consoles, PCs, and mobile, and for some of the top game franchises.

Kinrate Analytics offers game developers, consultants, publishers, and cloud gaming operators the best cross-platform game recommendation engine for targeted marketing, as well as a novel profiling-as-a-service solution for intelligent market segmentation and social networking.

Other services include advanced market prediction analyses for identifying emergent gaming trends and access to unique AI-enhanced data of 140 thousand game titles and 48 million game players.

The products of Kinrate Analytics have been developed in university-led research projects in collaboration with economists, psychologists, game scholars, and data scientists.

Sensor Tower is relied upon by financial analysts, VCs, and publishers who need to leverage data to identify the fastest-growing apps, emerging markets, and more.

Clients harness Sensor Tower's suite of app intelligence tools to:

‣ Evaluate app economies and app vitality. ‣ Drive organic growth with the leading App Store

Optimization platform. ‣ Get the best global download and revenue

estimates for the App Store and Google Play. ‣ Discover top creatives and better shape user

acquisition strategy.

RPG MECHANICS TAXONOMY

�25

Family Definition

Accelerators Increases the power, impact, or efficiency of play

Banks Saves a % of spend that can be unlocked later

Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E)

Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete

Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups

Collections A set of items players collect (often for a completion prize)

Competitions Players competing against other players

Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or a feature

Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items

Custom Design Options to customize aesthetics

Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc.

Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys

Family Definition

Hazards Level elements/blockers that make levels more difficult

Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction

Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards

Levels Anything to do with leveling

Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within a game (e.g., scratch cards)

Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must complete

Notices Feature or product announcements

Other Miscellaneous features and outliers

Profiles Players' setups, profiles, settings, and controls

Purchases Anything to do with purchases

Quests Tasks that players complete to progress along a map

Rewards Rewards players receive for engagement or spend (other than those in the bonuses family)

“Good is not a thing you are. It's a thing you do."

— Ms. Marvel, Ms. Marvel #5

Copyright © 2021 Liquid and Grit LLC. All rights reserved.

Brett.Nowak@LiquidandGrit.com

LiquidandGrit.com