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:

. .

25 2014

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2

~1% decrease in the ability of the Earth to cool to outer space (energy imbalance)

=> directwarming of ~1 deg. C from 2XCO2 (based upon theory, high confidence)=> indirectmagnification of warming (2 to 3X, based upon feedback theory, low conf.)

Change in weather patterns?=> VERY uncertain still no observational evidence for increased storminess

=> uncertainty is because natural variability is so great

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IPCC hindcastsof warming have largely failed, both

for GLOBAL AVERAGE conditions

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and REGIONAL conditions.

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1950 * :

1) ( 2),2) 1.3 . ,

3)

*Spencer, R. W., and W. D. Braswell, 2014: The role of ENSO in global oceantemperature changes during 1955-2011 simulated with a 1D climate model.Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 50(2), 229-237.

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Why have models failed?(my favored explanations)

1. Climate sensitivity is lower than modelers assume(e.g. cooling effect of clouds increasing with warming)?

2. Extra energy being stored in the deep oceans(increased ocean mixing cooling the surface)?

Some of both?

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,

1%

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1. IPCC models have been based upon theassumption of a sensitive climate system

2. Observations suggest the climate systemin not as sensitive as modelers assume

The Bottom Line

3. If climate sensitivity is high, and the extraenergy is temporarily being sequestered in

the deep ocean, then RAPID WARMING ofsurface temps. must resume at some point.