Roy Newton

TAG TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE18 September 2009

DELIVERING A WORKABLE STRATEGY AFTER THE CONGESTION CHARGE

Contents

• The Scale of the Challenge• Funding Sources• Lessons Learned from TIF• The New Funding Approach • Prioritising Schemes for Delivery• Next Steps

The Scale of the Challenge

The Scale of the Challenge

• City Regions identified as key areas for economic growth• Northern Way Growth Strategy and NW RES identify GM

as key contributor to economic growth in the North of England

• Manchester City Region Development Plan seeks to create 210,000 new jobs over next 10-15 years

• Housing Green Paper requires 20% more housing than currently proposed in draft RSS (which already contains challenging housing growth targets)

• All the above whilst: – Tackling Climate Change– Improving Health– Improving Social Inclusion

The Scale of the Challenge• RISE IN CAR NUMBERS • SLOWING SPEEDS

The Scale of the Challenge• CONGESTION ON TRAINS • BUS RELIABILITY

• RISE IN METROLINK USAGE

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%

within 30 minutes within 45 minutes within 60 minutes

% c

han

ge

on

200

1

2021 Regional Centre Labour marketMetrolink Phase 3(a) and LTP ITB only

The Scale of the Challenge

Manchester City’s effective labour market

Funding Sources

Funding Sources• Local Transport Plan

– Minor Works (<£5 million) – around £45 million pa in GM– Major Schemes (>£5 million) – around £115 m pa in NW

• Rail – around £3 billion pa nationally• Transport Innovation Fund

– – – Congestion TIF - Around £200 million pa for 10 years– Productivity TIF - Around £8 billion over 7 Years

• Community Infrastructure Levy?• Supplementary Business Rates?• Prudential borrowing

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

£290m £600m £930m £1300m £1680m £2100m £2550m

Lessons Learned from TIF

TIF Package• £2.8 billion investment proposed:

– Metrolink (tram) extensions – Bus Rapid Transit– Improvements to rail capacity (in particular longer trains)– Bus priority measures and more buses– Park and Ride– Transport integration measures (including interchanges, ticketing,

intelligent transport systems, better information)– Traffic management improvements– Behavioural change measures

• £1.5 billion funded from TIF• £1.2 billion funded from prudential borrowing on charging

revenues• £0.1 billion third party contributions

Lessons Learned• Tensions between technical requirements, political

requirements and public understanding of a complex scheme

• GM comprises 10 Highway Authorities and an ITA – different political control across authorities – different degrees of support/opposition

• Only way forward was via referendum:– 52% response of which 80% against, 20% for

• Timing of referendum as UK headed into recession did not help, however 2 main messages:– Distrust that charge would not increase significantly in the future

or extend to cover other geographic areas– Distrust of ability of public sector to deliver public transport

improvements

The New Funding Approach

The Transport Fund ConceptThe fund:• A new approach – potential to act as multiplier

on DfT funding• Could start to deliver relatively quickly• Economically driven – contribution to GVA

subject to net positive environmental and social impacts

• Transformational – potential to assist GM’s growth rate by 20%

• Innovative – brings together national, regional and local funding to deliver an integrated programme that maximises economic returns per £

The Transport Fund ConceptThe fund comprises:• Regional Funding Allocation contribution (total

around £448 million to 2018/19)• Top-slicing LTP Integrated Transport Block by

40% (total around £147 million to 2018/19) • Increasing the Integrated Transport Authority

levy by 3% per year for 6 years (to fund prudential borrowing total of £649 million paid back over 30 years)

• Other contributions (£291 million)• Total fund size £1.535 billion

Prioritising Schemes for Delivery

Scope of Work• Independent assessment of major

schemes as part of an Investment and Funding Strategy

• Limited to schemes part of RFA and Post TIF Legacy list

• To assess contribution to key economic outcomes, in addition to environmental and social objectives

• To inform decision making

Prioritisation Metric

• Greater Manchester GVA per £ of ‘local buying power’

• Subject to:– Positive impact on C02 emissions– Increase in the number of jobs accessible to:

• The average resident of GM• The average resident in areas within the bottom

quartile of the index of multiple deprivation

Economic Methodology

GVA = Labour Productivity X Jobs

Labour ProductivityProductivity analysis based on:

• DfT guidance• Outputs from

consistent transport models

JobsEmployment analysis based on:

• Changes in connectivity to labour, other businesses, retail markets

• Consistent with TIF economic analysis

Cost =Impact on buying

power of GM transport fund GVA per £

Agreed Programme• Accelerated DfT Package

– Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury– Metrolink: Droylsden – Ashton– Elements of Cross City Bus Package– Park and Ride in Greater Manchester

• South East Manchester Multi Modal Strategy (SEMMMS) Relief Road • Mottram Bypass and Glossop Spur Bypasses • Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway • Metrolink: Rochdale Town Centre • Ashton Northern Bypass Stage 2 • Wigan IRR • Metrolink : Airport and Second City crossing • Fund contributions to stations • Altrincham Interchange • Bolton interchange • Metrolink: Oldham Town Centre

Additional priorities awaiting further funding: • Metrolink – Trafford Park • Stockport Interchange • Stockport Town Centre Access Scheme • East Lancashire Railway

Next Steps

Next Steps• Charging is off the agenda in GM for the foreseeable

future• Considering other funding streams eg:

– Further ring fenced contributions to schemes.– Tax Increment Finance pilot project– Further increases for the ITA levy

• Assessing implications for LDF core strategies and GM economic strategy

• Assessing implications of single regional strategy and DASTS processes

• Developing LTP3– Strategy to 2020– 10 implementation plans– Review of funding distribution

• Statutory City Region negotiations

Next Steps• Reviewing transport governance

– Constitutional arrangements - membership, decision-making, executive arrangements, accountability and institutional structure

– Functional changes - powers of direction or statutory delegation of transport functions from the Secretary of State or a district authority

– Geographic scope - determining the relevant boundaries in transport terms, which may include formalising the relationship with authorities within the travel-to-work area of the conurbation.

• Implications of local and national elections• Considering future funding scenarios

Contact Details

Roy Newton

Head of Greater Manchester Joint Transportation Policy Team

Email: roy.newton@gmltp.co.uk

Tel: 0161 244 1164

Fax: 0161 244 1179

Website: www.gmltp.co.uk