Roy Kass, Natural Gas Division, EIAMarch 20, 2002Reno, NevadaGasmart

Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Storage Survey and

Web-based Information Dissemination.

2

AGA Survey History

• At end of 1993 AGA began a voluntary survey of storage operators with purpose of enhancing information needed for storage operations. Their last report will be May 1.

• Respondents are 42-43 companies who report storage data for 3 geographic regions.

• Data are released on Wednesday afternoon of each week, with a delay of one day for some federal holidays.

3

AGA Data Collection

• AGA data form requests respondent information for 3 items per region (1 region per form):

- Working gas volumes for company as of 9 a.m. Friday this week and this week last year

- Maximum working gas in company-region reservoirs at any time during 1992-2001

4

EIA Project Schedule 2001-2002

Oct. 12 AGA announces intent to stop weekly survey

Oct. 30 Secretary directs EIA to conduct weekly survey

Oct.- Dec. Meetings with agencies, industry, data customers,

Federal Register Notice

Jan. OMB clearance, contractor award

Feb.-Mar Sample notification, system building

Mar.-Apr. First data due 3/18; data and response work

May 8-9 EIA data released, including data for 6-7 earlier

weeks

5

Methodological and Operational Issues

• Estimation methodology and sample selection

• Editing and imputation

• Revision of estimates

• Comparisons with AGA and EIA monthly series

• Security, release time, and release product

6

Estimation and Sample Selection I

• Objectives are weekly estimates of working gas in storage for three regions and total U.S.

• Approach was determined by available resources, time constraint, and customer/respondent desires for minimal change

7

Estimation and Sample Selection II

• Sampled from monthly EIA-191 responses for October, 2001 within each region, target standard error five percent of estimate.

• Certainty and noncertainty strata. Probability proportional to size for noncertainty companies

• Initial sample of 50 companies. Expect to select new panel annually.

8

Estimation and Sample Selection III

• Estimation formula in each region is

where N = all companies that report monthly for that region

n = sample size for that regionf = companies in region that failed edits or did not report this weekWWG = weekly reports of working gas for sample members in regionMWG = monthly reports of working gas for companies in region

W W G

M W G

M W G

E stim aten f

N

n f

*

9

Estimate Revisions

• We will allow (and encourage) revisions to submitted data of greater than 1 Bcf, especially if:– Errors in earlier reports are found– Reclassification between base and working gas

10

Operational Issues

• Comparisons between AGA and EIA series

• Adequacy of response

• Security equivalent to or more severe than AGA’s

11

Description of EIA and AGA Storage Data

• EIA will prepare two papers to assist analysts in using and assessing the data– Technical description of the survey and

methodology (Mid April)– Comparison of methodologies and

presentation of estimates for weeks where both EIA and AGA have collected data (shortly after EIA’s first publication)

12

Comparison: EIA and AGA Storage Data

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

11

/30

/00

12

/28

/00

1/2

5/0

1

2/2

2/0

1

3/2

2/0

1

4/1

9/0

1

5/1

7/0

1

6/1

4/0

1

7/1

2/0

1

8/9

/01

9/6

/01

10

/4/0

1

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et

EIA monthly

End March: 18% difference

AGA weekly

13

April Working Gas:EIA-AGA Estimates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Bcf

Dif

fere

nce

Month 4

Sum of EIA-AGA2

Year

Drop More Series Fields Here

14

Operational Concerns

• We will be posting the weekly product to EIA’s web site

• EIA’s site is available to all Internet users

• Press and wire services are our friend

• Will not allow fast-repeating robots to conduct “denial of service attacks”

15

Getting EIA’s Information

• Web-based dissemination

– Http://www.eia.doe.gov

• National Energy Information Center– 202-586-8800– Email infoctr@eia.Doe.Gov

16

Sample Screens fromEIA’s web site

• EIA home page

• Natural Gas Home Page

• Natural Gas Data Publications

• Natural Gas Monthly

17

EIA Home Pagewww.eia.doe.gov

Select Natural Gas

18

Natural Gas Page

LookHereForWhatWeAreHigh-Lighting

Publications

19

Publications Page - Top

Our data publications throughThese links.

I select “Natural Gas Monthly”

20

Annual Publications Section

21

Natural Gas Monthly (1)

22

Natural Gas Monthly (2)

Tables are PDF as Published and ExcelWith historical data