Rovner Three Questions About Strategy Bogota Feb2012 SCRUBBED

7/30/2019 Rovner Three Questions About Strategy Bogota Feb2012 SCRUBBED

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Three Questions about Strategy

Joshua RovnerDepartment of Strategy and Policy

U.S. Naval War College

February 2012


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Why Theory Matters

Theory simplifies the complex.

Theory provides a gateway to critical analysis.

Theory helps distinguish good analogies frombad ones.


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Why These Theorists Matter


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1.What is war?

2.What is strategy?

3.What is victory?


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Passion Chance

Politics

What is War?


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Absolute War and Real War

Absolute War

1. A single event divorced from politics

2. Simultaneous all-out force from both

sides; a pure test of strength3. A complete and decisive victory

Real War

1. Governed by politics

2. Inhibited by fog, friction, and

chance

3. Means are partial or total, ends are

limited or unlimited; result is never

final


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What is War?

war is not merely an act of policy

but a true political instrument, a

continuation of political

intercourse, carried on with other

means. p.87

War is a clash between major

interests, which is resolved by

bloodshed p.149

act of force to compel our enemy

to do our will. p.75


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an act of force


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Why Violence Matters

1. It creates fog.

2. It creates friction.

3. It arouses passion.


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to compel our enemy


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Brute Force and Coercion

war is not merely an act of policy but a true

political instrument, a continuation of political

intercourse, carried on with other means.

-On War, p. 87

The power to hurt is bargaining power. To

exploit it is diplomacy vicious diplomacy, but

diplomacy.

-Thomas Schelling


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to do our will.

Unlimited objective: to

overthrow the enemy--to render

him politically helpless or militarily

impotent, thus forcing him to sign

whatever peace we please;

Or limited objective: merely to

occupy some of his frontier-districtsso that we can annex them or use

them for bargaining at the peace

negotiations.

p. 69


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What is War?

War is a matter of vital

importance to the State; the

province of life or death; the

road to survival or ruin.

p.63

as water has no constantform, there are in war no

constant conditions.

p. 101


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Five Fundamental Factors

1. Moral influence

2. Weather3. Terrain

4. Command

5. Doctrine


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Moral Influence

that which causes

the people to be in

harmony with theirleaders, so that they

will accompany them

in life and unto death

without fear of mortal

peril.

p. 64.


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Weather and Terrain


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Command

the generalsqualities of wisdom,

sincerity, humanity,

courage, and

strictness.

p. 65


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Doctrine

organization, control, assignment of

appropriate ranks to officers, regulation of

supply routes, and the provision of principal

items used by the army.

p. 65


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What is Strategy?

(Strategy) is the use of an

engagement for the purpose of

the war.

Strategic theory must therefore

study the engagement in terms

of its possible results and of

the moral and psychologicalforces that largely determine

its course.

p. 177.


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Is Strategy an Illusion?

Fog

FrictionChance

Passion

Interaction


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How do you win?

1. Find a genius.


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2. If you cant find a genius, find the center of gravity

and concentrate force against it.


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3. Obey the principle of continuity but do not cross the

culminating point of victory.


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4. Maintain civilian control

If war is part of policy, policy will

determine its character. . . .Policy,

of course, will not extend its

influence to operational details.Political considerations do not

determine the posting of guards

or the employment of patrols.

But they are the more influential

in the planning of war, of the

campaign, and often even of the

battle.

p. 606


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What is Strategy

to win one hundred

victories in one

hundred battles is notthe acme of skill. To

subdue the enemy

without fighting is theacme of skill.

p. 77


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How do you win?

Sunzis hierarchy

1. Attack the enemys strategy

2. Attack the enemys alliances

3. Attack the enemys army

4. Attack the enemys cities


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How do you win?

Intelligence


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Net Assessment

Know the enemy andknow yourself; in a

hundred battles you will

never be in peril.

p. 84


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Deception

All warfare is based on deception.

Therefore, when capable, feign

incapacity; when active, inactivity.

When near, make it appear that you

are far away; when far away, that

you are near

Pretend inferiority and encourage

his arrogance.

pp. 66-67.


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Manuever When he concentrates, prepareagainst him; where he is strong,

avoid him.

Keep him under a strain andwear him down

Attack where he is unprepared;

sally out when he does not

expect you.

pp. 67-69


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5. Do not inhibit the generals

He whose

generals are able

and not interferedwith by the

sovereign will be

victorious.

p. 83.


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What is Victory?


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The Culminating Point of Victory

Once the expenditure of effort exceeds

the value of the political object, the

object must be renounced and peace

must follow.

p. 92


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In War the Result is Never Final

. . . even the ultimate outcome of a war is not

always to be regarded as final. The defeated

state often considers the outcome merely as a

transitory evil, for which a remedy may still be

found in political conditions at some later

date.

p. 80


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Criteria for Success

1.Political goals achieved

2.at a reasonable cost

3.with plans for adurable settlement in

place.


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What is Victory?

Your aim must be to

take All-under-Heaven

intact. Thus your troopsare not worn out and

your gains will be

complete.

p. 79


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Spectrum of Victory

Carthage Sunzi


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Bloodless Victory?


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Bloodless Victory?


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Parting Questions

1. How do you know when you have won?

2. How do you consolidate victory?

3. How do you convince the enemy that the

result of the war is final?

4. How do you create a durable peace?

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Rovner Three Questions About Strategy Bogota Feb2012 SCRUBBED