Welcome and Introduction

Thomas Rosswall, Chair CCAFS

UN MDG Summit 20-22 September 2010

"It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard-won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the foreword to the Millennium Development Goals Report to the Summit.

Millennium Development Goals

The number of undernourished people is increasing, while we are constrained by:

Nine Planetary

Boundaries

Rockström et al., Nature, 461 472-475 (2009)

Trends in World Hunger

Rockström & Karlberg (Ambio 2010)

Human growth 20/80 dilemma

Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma

Climate 550/450/350

dilemma

Surprise 99/1 dilemma

”The Quadruple Squeeze”

The Climate Change Challenge

•  Climate change will worsen the living conditions of farmers, fishers and forest-dependent people who are already vulnerable and food insecure

•  Rural communities ... face an immediate and ever-growing risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock, loss of fisheries ......

•  Hunger and malnutrition will increase

FAO 2009

Changes in Agricultural Productivity by 2080

www.cabi.org

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

The Big Disconnect

Development and global change have been addressed, researched, and funded as unrelated issues

A Question of Scale

Sachs et al. Nature 2010 ... and geographic diffrences Differences

Brazil Africa

Time Scales •  Climate change scenarios

•  Near-term climate change, Decadal variability

•  Interannual variability

•  Seasonal cycle

•  Sub-seasonal variability

•  Weather

•  Migration, large-scale infrastructure

•  Breeding, strategic

research, change of

farming system

•  Technology selection, resource allocation

•  Field operations

Jim Hansen, IRI, Columbia University/CCAFS)

•  Breeding, strategic research, change of farming systems

Food Security ...

is achieved when “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (FAO, 1996)

Main Elements of Food Systems

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability • Allocation • Preference

• Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production • Distribution • Exchange

GECAFS conceptual diagram

Global

Integrated Siloed

Local

Business As Usual

Development Research

Business As Usual Global Change

D4GΔ Development

for Global Change

Adapted from Sara Farley, The World Bank

CRP7 - the Opportunity

CCAFS – CRP7

Earth System Science Partnership

CRP7

We are asking for a wide range of agricultural sector actors to change their behavior, to innovate, under conditions of incomplete and un-integrated markets, asymmetric information & missing insurance and credit markets

The Challenge

Climate Change Vulnerability Index

Maplecroft 2010

W. Africa

E. Africa

IGP

Per Olsson, SRC, 2009

What Next?