Roofing Manufacturer

By

Robyn Dean

Christy Lewis

History

• Based out of Ennis, TX

• Factory Plant--scratch, packaged, and labeled

• Shipments are made to various customers and regions

History cont.

• Three different types of shingles are produced, with various different colors--A,B,C

• Three regions--D,E,F

• The first company to make roofing material through advance technology and production

PROBLEM

• To forecast which product should be made first (for the peak months) to meet the estimated historical sales and current sales

• To forecast which product to produce during the low peak months to continue with sales, at the same time not go over limited storage capacity

Considering Factors

• Production Capacity limited

• Limited Storage Capacity

• Weather

• Competition and Market Trend

• Production cycle = 30 days

• Assumption= peak buying time is at the end of each month

Information

• Historical Data= sales and production of products over 5 years each month (93-97)

• 1998 Data = same as historical data

• Most productive product

Solving Methods

• Forecasting using decomposition which takes into account Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal, and Irregularity

• Smoothie

• Excel

Conclusion

• Product B = most popular product should be produce during the low peak months, December, January, etc.

• Product C and A = should be produced during the high peak months (summer)

Recommendations

• Product B should start the production cycle as soon as the low peak months start in order to produce enough product

• Same for Product A and C

• With this, believe that the limit storage capacity will not over fill and production capacity will be steady