Role of Wimax in Broadband and Its Enablers

8/14/2019 Role of Wimax in Broadband and Its Enablers

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India

325 languages spoken325 languages spoken1,652 dialects;1,652 dialects;

18 official languages;18 official languages;

28 states, 7 union territories;28 states, 7 union territories;

Largest English speaking nationLargest English speaking nation

3.28 million sq. kilometers3.28 million sq. kilometers -- AreaArea

7,516 kilometers7,516 kilometers -- CoastlineCoastline

1.2 Billion population July 2007 est.1.2 Billion population July 2007 est.

Largest Democracy; Parliamentary form ofLargest Democracy; Parliamentary form of

GovernmentGovernment

Young population: over 300 million below 25 yearsYoung population: over 300 million below 25 years

of ageof age

Large pool of scientists and engineers.Large pool of scientists and engineers.

FastestG

rowingT

elecom

Market

inthewo

rld

FIIInflow8.1bninH108

5600 dailies, 15000 weeklies and 200005600 dailies, 15000 weeklies and 20000

periodicals in 21 languages with a combinedperiodicals in 21 languages with a combined

circulation of 142 millioncirculation of 142 million

WorldWorld--class recognition in IT, bioclass recognition in IT, bio--technology andtechnology and

spacespace

GDP:USD1Trillio

n

[email protected]

%

Highestnumberof

Highestnumberof

BillionairesinA

siaBilliona

iresinAsia

A BroadbandA Broadband

Revolution inRevolution in

WaitingWaiting


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Role of WiMAX in Broadband and its Enablers

Prateek Pashine

VSNL


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Lessons from a Decade of Mobile

The Broadband Opportunity

Getting There


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Indian Telecom Market - Environment

WeakInfrastructure

Low SpendingPower

High CustomerExpectations

ToughMarket

Competition Regulat

ion


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Mobile Subscriber Growth Driven by Competitionand Falling Tariffs

0

40

80

120

160

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Mobile Effective Charges (INR/minute)

Source: TRAI, COAI, AUSPI

MnSu

bscribers

NTP 99 :Introduction ofRevenue Share

Entry of

3

rd

and 4

th

GSMOperators

Entry of 2 pan-IndiaCDMA Operators

Calling Party PaysIntroduced

CDMALimitedMobility

Entry

WLL introduced

Rs.Perminute


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Key Growth Drivers in Mobile

Market and Reach

Favourable demographic shift in Indian households

Increasing coverage by telecom operators

Cost to serve

Decreasing costs of services for end consumer

Decreasing Handset and device costs

Lower incremental capex per capacity

Regulation

Decreasing regulatory uncertainty

+ve changes including Reduction in License Fees and other costs

The robustgrowth of

IndianWirelessTelecom

Industry isdriven byseveral

factorswhich

initiallyremained

key

hindrances


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Getting There


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Growth in Broadband various countries

Ability to significantly impact the telecom, entertainment, IT markets

BBs role in growth of GDP, enhancement in quality of life and societal applications education,medicine, governance

Initial adoption tends to be slow *

Growth rates in 3 digits for a few years

BB Growth Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5

China 200% 216% 358%

Japan 200% 254% 232% 180%

S Korea 972% 362% 199% 133% 100%

Brazil 50% 87% 82% 84%

UK 640% 416% 276%

US 333% 219% 160% 126% 107%

France 100% 145% 164% 124%

Germany 457% 248% 157% 108%

* France, Germany, Brazil all took 3-4 years to reach 1stmillion BB subscribers


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Population 1.1 billion

Urban Population300+ million

Mobile Phones

>200 million

Cable & Pay TV>60 million

Fixed Lines

40 million

Broadband Subs2-3 million

Internet Subscribers8-9 million

Internet Users40-50 million

Addressable Market Huge Latent Demand


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10

Conservativeestimates

3% of Mobilesubscribers

17% of CTVhouseholds

19% of Motorcycleowning households

24% of Refrigeratorowning households

60% of Car owninghouseholds

Market Forecast :: Conservative Estimates

MM 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CAGR

Population 1,107 1,125 1,144 1,160 1,176 1.5%

Unique PC Owners 5 7 8 10 13 25%

Broadband Subscribers 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.7 11.0 62%

Broadband as a % of PC 31.2% 47.8% 63.1% 75.5% 86.6%

Broadband as a % of

White Goods 2.3% 12.0%

Refrigerators 4.5% 24.0%CTV Regular 3.4% 17.2%

Motorcycles 4.9% 19.1%

Cars 14.4% 59.1%

CDMA +GSM 1.6% 3.1%


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Markets that Broadband Services can Impact

Media &Entertainment

Size ($ Bn) Growth (%)

Training &Education

OrganizedRetail

12 18%

Current Online Share (%)

~1%

>20 10-15% ~0%

10 50% ~0%

Estimates from various sources; accurate at order of magnitude level

Even a 1% share of these 3 sectors could create aBroadband services market of over $10Bn in 5 years


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Beyond Business Broadband can impactSociety and Governance

Tele-commuting: creation of new BPO opportunities in smaller towns& villages prevents migration to urban centers, enablesinfrastructure investments beyond cities

E-Governance: reaching information and access control to the billionplus population reduces corruption, enhances education andproductivity

A $100 Bn opportunity

>$100 Bn value inproductivity gains

Source: CII Taskforce on Broadband; Various research


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The Broadband Enablers

BroadbandTriangle

Content Device

Infra

Alliances &tie-ups

InternationalDomestic

CityLast mile Access

Tax structureImport proceduresOpen standards


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Wire line last mile domination by PSU incumbents & LocalCable Operators (LCOs)

While regulator recommended LLU, Govt. has not gone ahead

LCO market which control the cable last mile is highlyfragmented with over 100,000 LCOs across the country;

The current cable TV network is arial and of low quality, backedwith the lack of organization makes it difficult to upgrade

Access

Difficult in getting municipal support and clearance for gettingright of way to lay copper/fiber lines

Spectrum policy for Broadband Wireless Access is yet to befinalized.

ISPs not permitted to offer domestic Internet Telephony (VoIP)

Lack of Clarity- Government

Policies

Key Issues preventing Broadband growth


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Content



Getting There


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Bypassing Legacy the India Way

Voice Services: Digital mobile is 5X of fixed lines

GSM introduced in 1995 and CDMA-1X in 2003

No analog. No standards issues

Broadband ???

Pay TV Services: Satellite leading theintroduction of digital TV

Analog cable prevalent since mid nineties Government mandates conditional access

in metros

Satellite (DTH) services achieve 5% share ina year 3 new players entering the market


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Wireless Broadband is the Way Ahead


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WiMAX First off the Blocks

3G - Policy yet to be finalized

Spectrum to be auctioned to 3-4 players

Greater impact on voice economics rather than data services

WiMAX Available now

ISPs using 3.3GHz spectrum for WiMAX roll-out

At least 3 networks being built in all large towns

Best spectral efficiencies

Already a 4G technology OFDMA today

Cost of CPE becomes indirect

13 mn subsprojected by 2012

Promising technology option - need catalyst to fuel the deployment


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India Epicentre of WiMAX

Operators deploying WiMAX at 3.3 GHz Is that a standard??

Asian tigers :: Do they follow standards or do they set standards

China :: TD SCDMA

Korea :: WiBRo Japan :: J-CDMA

Wireless Broadband opportunity in India bigger than

Entire LatAm (predominantly on 3.5 GHz)

Korea (at 2.3 GHz)

Current deployments by Indian operators rival the Poster boy of WiMAX - Sprint

VSNL deploys the largest WiMAX network in a city across the world


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Impediments

Industry View

Good 30 Mhz

Better 50 Mhz

Best 70 MHz(Scott Richardson, CSO, Clearwire)

Need for more spectrum

Procedural hassles & high costs

Import and ownership of CPEs

Royalty for CPEs and Base stations (close to 25% of customer spend)

Recognition and endorsement of 3.3 Ghz by the Govt / Licensor and Forum

.yes per operator!!!

Do we have everything that it takes to make Broadband happen in India??-Operators have already taken the first step-Regulatory support will be a Sweet spot


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Enablers

Endorse 3.3 Ghz and rationalise coverage for the incumbent operators

Release chunks available and thru Refarming 100 Mhz + in 2.3 and 2.5 Ghz

Simultaneous release of both spectrums

Min 30 Mhz More operators :: Lower cost to serve

Ease procedures

Free import of CPEs, handsets :: just like Mobile

Licensing costs move to % of AGR

Allow ISPs to offer other services such as IP-VPN and voice services

Create a category of Access License delinked from 2G spectrum

BSO License missing

Better business model resulting in lower costs to customers

Tax and levy support thru reduction in import duties and service tax


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India

325 languages spoken325 languages spoken1,652 dialects;1,652 dialects;

18 official languages;18 official languages;

28 states, 7 union territories;28 states, 7 union territories;

Largest English speaking nationLargest English speaking nation

3.28 million sq. kilometers3.28 million sq. kilometers -- AreaArea

7,516 kilometers7,516 kilometers -- CoastlineCoastline

1.2 Billion population July 2007 est.1.2 Billion population July 2007 est.

Largest Democracy; Parliamentary form ofLargest Democracy; Parliamentary form of

GovernmentGovernment

Young population: over 300 million below 25 yearsYoung population: over 300 million below 25 years

of ageof age

Large pool of scientists and engineers.Large pool of scientists and engineers.

FastestG

rowingT

elecom

Marke

tinthew

orld

FIIInflow8.1bn

inH108

5600 dailies, 15000 weeklies and 200005600 dailies, 15000 weeklies and 20000periodicals in 21 languages with a combinedperiodicals in 21 languages with a combined

circulation of 142 millioncirculation of 142 million

WorldWorld--class recognition in IT, bioclass recognition in IT, bio--technology andtechnology and

spacespace

GDP:USD1

Trillion

[email protected]

%

Highestnumberof

Highestnumberof

BillionairesinA

siaBilliona

iresinAsia

BroadbandBroadbandRevolution willRevolution will

Surely happen!!Surely happen!!


23/23

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soon to be

Tata Communications

Documents

Role of Wimax in Broadband and Its Enablers