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ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX OF PAKISTAN
IAEA Technical Meeting Role and Sustainability of Nuclear Power in the National Energy Mix, Including the Long Term Operation of NPPs Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Muhammad Saleemullah, Applied Systems Analysis Division, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
June 21-23, 2016
Contents
Some basic facts Current status Energy situation Electricity situation Nuclear power
Peak demand forecast Energy sources for power generation Comparison of alternate options Concluding remarks
2
Pakistan: Basic Facts June 2016
Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world having about 194 million population (Urban share: 39%)
Population growth : 1.9% per year GDP : 226,270 Million US dollar
GDP growth : 4.7% per year Per capita income : 1,560 US dollar Total primary energy supply: 66.9 MTOE (2014)
Per capita energy supply : 0.36 TOE (2014) Electricity generation : 109,246 GWh (2015) Per capita electricity consumption: 447 kWh (2015)
3
Installed Capacity June 2015
Sources: State of Industry Report 2015, NEPRA
Total: 25,041 MW
4
Electricity Generation Mix 2015
Source: State of Industry Report 2015, NEPRA
Total: 109.2 TWh
5
Govt of Pakistan
Ministry of Water and Power
WAPDA
Mega Dams
Water Projects
PEPCO
GENCOs
NTDC/ CPPA
DISCOs
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
Nuclear Power Plants
Provinces
Provincial Power Sector Entities
Private Sector
SPPs/ CPPs
K-Electric
IPPs
Renewable Projects
Pakistan Power Sector Players
NEPRA
AEDB PPIB
6
Nuclear Power (Operational)
KANUPP CHASNUPP-1 CHASNUPP-2
Contractor CGE (Canada) CNNC (China) CNNC (China)
Capacity (Gross) 137/100 MW 325 MW 325 MW
Start of Construction Aug 1966 Aug 1993 Dec 2005
Commercial Operation Dec 1972 Sep 2000 May 2011
Life Time Availability Factor (Since COD to 31 Mar 2016)
56.2% 77.3% 85.1%
Life Time Capacity Factor (Since COD to 31 Mar 2016)
30.7% 74.0% 81.8%
7
Comparative Performance of Operational Power Plants in Pakistan
8
8
Cost per kWh from Nuclear compared with other sectors
Data from NEPRA Report 2015 and NTDC Power System Statistics 2015
Average Cost of CHASNUPP-1/ CHASNUPP-2 to NTDC (Rs. 7.09/kWh)
9
9
Recent Tariffs Determined by the Regulator – NEPRA (2015 - 2016)
10
Source: Based on Tariff Determination/Decisions of NEPRA
10
Nuclear Power (Under Construction)
CHASNUPP-3 CHASNUPP-4 K-2
Size (Gross) 340 MW 340 MW 1100 MW
Contractor CNNC (China) CNNC (China) CNNC (China)
Contract Signing 20 Nov 2008 20 Nov 2008 18 Feb 2013
Contract Effective Date 31 Mar 2010 31 Mar 2010 28 Feb 2014
Groundbreaking 5 Aug 2010 1 Apr 2011 26 Nov 2013
First Concrete Pouring 4 Mar 2011 18 Dec 2011 20 Aug 2015
IAEA Safeguards Approval 8 Mar 2011 8 Mar 2011 -
Commercial Operation (Planned)
Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Jul 2020
11
* Construction work on K-3, 1100 MW NPP, will start soon
Power Generation Plan of Pakistan (MW)
12
Nuclear Hydel Coal Renewable Oil Gas Total
2005* 462 6,460 160 180 12,340 19,600
2015* 755 7,116 150 356 16,814 25,041
Additions
2010 - 1,260 900 700 160 4,860 7,880
2015 900 7,570 3,000 800 300 7,550 20,120
2020 1,500 4,700 4,200 1,470 300 12,560 24,730
2025 2,000 5,600 5,400 2,700 300 22,490 38,490
2030 4,000 7,070 6,250 3,850 300 30,360 51,830
Total 8,800 32,660 19,910 9,700 7,760 83,760 16,2590
* Actual. Source: i) Medium Term Development Framework 2005-2010, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, May 2005. ii) State of Industry Report 2012, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority.
12
Scenario Average Annual Economic Growth
2014-40
Peak Demand on National Grid (MW)
2029-30 2034-35 2039-40
Base 5.0% 62,289 79,958 102,591
High 6.5% 75,808 102,338 138,664
(MW)
Source: Project for Least Cost Power Generation and Transmission Expansion Plan, Draft Report, NTCF, October 2015
Projected Electricity Demand in Pakistan (A Study by NTDC in 2015)
13
Energy Resources for Power Generation
14
If whole resource is used for power generation
Fuel Unit
Proven reserves
Quantity For 1000 MW size plants of
30-year life
Oil Million Barrels 371 1
Gas Trillion Cubic Feet 24 15
Coal Billion Tonnes 8* 54
* Total resource is about 186 billion tonnes (~ 1746 plants of 1000 MW of 30 year life).
Hydro:
Potential : 60,000 MW
Already exploited : 7,1166 MW (12% of the potential)
14
Fossil Fuel Resources
15
Oil
Small Reserves
The country meets its more than 80% oil requirements through import
Gas
Production is already insufficient to meet the current requirement
Demand/supply gap could be 8.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2027-28*
Coal
95% of the coal resources are located in Thar. This coal is lignite with more than 40% moisture. Power plants at mine mouth because of high moisture and low energy contents, resulting in large investment on electricity transmission
* Pakistan Energy Outlook, 2012-2013 to 2027-2028
15
Prospects of Renewable Development
16
Wind Potential
Theoretical = ~ 50,000 MW
Exploitable = ~ 11,000 MW considering availability of land with about 23 -28% capacity factor
Currently, wind generation projects are offered an upfront tariff of US 10.45 cents/kWh
Solar Potential is high. But have techno-economic issues.
Currently, solar projects are offered an upfront tariff of US 10.73 cents/kWh for South Region and US Cents 11.36/kWh for North Region
16
60 reactor-years of safe operation experience to its credit.
3 operating plants. Chashma plants, amongst the best in electricity generation plants
in the country.
4 nuclear power plants under construction.
Trained and experienced manpower to operate and maintain the plants.
Independent Regulatory Authority.
Pakistan has:
Nuclear Power in Pakistan 17
Indigenous Capability in the Nuclear Power Sector
Integrated Nuclear Power Planning
Site Evaluation Studies
Design, Analysis, Engineering
Regulatory Regime
Plant Commissioning
Operation & Maintenance
Fuel Cycle
Waste Management
Quality Assurance
Human Resource Development
18
MS/PhD in Nuclear, Systems, Mechanical, Process and Materials Engineering
M.Phil/PhD in Physics and Computer Science
MS/PhD in Medical Physics, Nuclear Medicine, Radiation & Medical Oncology
Undergraduate program in Electrical/Mechanical Engineering
Short courses
Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS)
Education and Training (1/2)
Karachi Institute of Power Engineering (KINPOE)
M.S (Nuclear Power Engineering)
One year Training Programmes for Engineers and Technicians
19
CHASNUPP Centre of Nuclear Training (CHASCENT) State of the art training institute with Full Scope Simulator. One year comprehensive operator’s training. One year Training Programmes for Engineers and Technicians.
Education and Training (2/2)
Pakistan Wielding Institute (PWI) Conventional and Specialized Welding Cutting Facilities Heat Treatment Facilities
National Center for Non-Destructive Testing (NCNDT)
Non-Destructive Testing (e.g., Radiographic, Ultrasonic, Eddy Current, Liquid Penetrate and Magnetic Particle)
First PNRA certified centre to perform In Service/Pre-Service Inspection of different components and weld of nuclear power plants.
20
Interaction with Global Nuclear Community
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Operating and under construction plants are under IAEA safeguards. IAEA missions for promoting plant safety in Pakistan:
Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) Assessment of Safety Significant Events Team (ASSET) International Probabilistic Safety Assessment Review Team (IPSART)
CANDU Owners Group (COG) Operating Experience Feedback
Event reports Just-in-Time Briefings Good Practices
COG Safety missions
World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) Peer Reviews Technical Support Missions Training Courses conducted in Pakistan
21
Concluding Remarks
Pakistan is a pioneer developing country for nuclear power production. Nuclear power activity started in Pakistan in 1965.
Nuclear Power is a mature, economically feasible and reliable base-load electricity technology and is contributing to socio-economic development of Pakistan
Operational nuclear power plants are performing well. These are supplying electricity at high capacity factors and single digit tariffs. Four nuclear power plants of 2,880 MW capacity are under construction.
Nuclear power is sustainable option and is an essential part of solution to energy crisis as it contributes to: Stabilize electricity prices
Enhance energy security
Avoid degrading atmospheric emissions
22
Thank You [email protected]