Role of Meteorological Information For

Building Resilience in African Arid

lands

AFRICAN CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

(ACMAD)

Presented by:

Adama Alhassane DIALLO

Director General of ACMAD

August 2016

Venue: Hotel xxx

Windhoeck-Namibia

CLIMATE EVENTS AND IMPACTS OVER ARID LANDS

ACMAD TOOLS & PRODUCTS & SERVICES FOR

BUILDING RESILIENCE

ROLE AND CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE SERVICES INSTITUTIONS

CONCLUDING REMARKS

OUTLINE

CLIMATE EVENTS AND IMPACTS

IN ARID LANDS

Number of disaster events - 1980-2007 (RA I)

Wind Storm

9%

Drought

11%

Flood

32%

Wild Fires

1%

Insect Infestation

4%

Slides

1%

Volcano

1%

Extreme

Temperature

1%

Epidemic

37%

Earthquake

3%

Casualties - 1980-2007 (RA I)

Drought

79%

Flood

2%

Epidemic

18%

Earthquake

1%

Economic losses - 1980-2007 (RA I)

Wind Storm

11.8%

Earthquake

48.9%

Wave / Surge

0.9%

Flood

18.5%

Drought

19.6%

CLIMATE EVENTS AND IMPACTS IN AFRICA

Droughts usually occurring over arid regions generate 79% of causalities and about 20% of economic losses

In future climate, droughts and floods are expected to increase.

Building resilience to droughts and floods over African Arid lands is a major priority for implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Sendai framework for DRR and UN Sustainable Development Goals in Africa.

CLIMATE EVENTS AND IMPACTS IN ARID LANDS

DROUGHTS ARE AFFECTING TENS of MILLIONS MOSTLY OVER

AFRICAN ARID LANDS

Strengthening drought early warning systems is pivotal to combat

climate change as required in the Sustainable Development Goals

year deaths affected

1980 0 8 495 000

1981 103 000 7 330 000

1982 0 2 237 300

1983 450 500 34 423 000

1984 0 3 220 000

1985 0 500 000

1986 0 850 000

1987 1 017 12 987 267

1988 200 3 663 500

1989 237 8 860 000

1990 0 8 066 900

1991 0 22 652 000

1992 0 7 431 500

1993 0 2 346 507

1994 0 1 200 000

1995 0 1 811 994

1996 0 3 342 000

1997 0 3 077 100

1998 12 236 700

1999 206 32 719 545

2000 21 3 431 290

2001 58 12 554 558

2002 588 5 943 435

2003 9 15 619 500

2004 80 17 779 000

2005 161 20 714 000

2006 0 3 757 000

2007 0 4 067 750

2008 4 17 942 500

2009 0 20 980 000

2010 20 000 7 765 876

2011 0 26 150 194

2012 0 12 961 900

2013 0 2 531 000

2014 0 5 950 000

Drought impacts monitoring tool for

Africa showing the most important

drought related disasters in Africa

(1980-2014). African arid lands were

the most affected.

With the high seasonal to interannual variability of Sahelian rainfall, conflicts between pastoralists/ herders and farmers are increasing;

High temperatures and heat waves are putting pressure on electricity production and distribution systems, heat related diseases and deaths (e.g 2010 in Niger);

Migration of population from arid regions towards more humid and coastal areas is increasing unemployment, crimes, diseases due to overcrowded slums in many African big cities;

SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE HAZARDS IN ARID

LANDS

ACMAD TOOLS & PRODUCTS & SERVICES FOR

BUILDING RESILIENCE

ACMAD/MESA Tools & Products

Meteorological Drought Monitoring tool

OND 2015 drought areas derived from precipitation indices over Northern

and southern Africa well detected with ACMAD/MESA PRODUCTS

ACMAD/MESA TOOLS & PRODUCTS

African Drought Monitor expressed as a

composite of precipitation, soil moisture deficit and

vegetation stress) valid for February 2016

Seasonal Forecasts(left) as tool for drought early warning and related verification( right)

– Good performance over much of Africa – but little actions to reduce losses and

damages - A policy instrument to mobilize food reserves and emergency funds by

September or October before drought impacts become significant is an emerging priority

given the observed increase in drought severity in African dry lands

Sample ACMAD/MESA climate service for policy and

strategy design and implementation on DRR in Africa

Changes in annual mean Maximum temperature (top)and precipitation (bottom).

Much of Africa shows robust warming reaching 2°C over the Sahel above the above 1976-2005 average.

into account are critical for Africa.

Below average precipitation over coastal part of north Africa is noteworthy.

Water, Agriculture, Energy, ecosystems, land and other natural resources of arid areas will be significantly

impacted.

Warming for all African land masses. A warming rate of

about 2°C per century during the last 65 years and

above 3°C per century during the last 25 years.

More frequent or intense high temperatures and heat

waves have been found connected with global warming.

ACMAD/MESA CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT SERVICE

FOR AFRICAN NEGOTIATORS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

FiVE RCOFs FORA: PRESANORD, PRESASS, PRESAGG, PRESAC ET

SWIOCOF ARE ORGANIZED BY ACMAD/RCC IN COLLABORATION WITH

NMHSs AND WMO

ADVISES AND MEASURES TO REDUCE CLIMATE HAZARDS NEGATIVE

IMPACTS ON ECOMONY, COCIETY AND INVIRONMENT OF AFRICAN ARID

LANDS ARE PROVIDED DURING FORA.

STRENGTHENING RCOFs IS RECOGNIZED AS A STRATEGIC PRIORITY FOR

EARLY WARNING AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN AFRICA

CHALLENGES AND ROLES OF CLIMATE

SERVICES INSTITUTIONS

-As a WMO Regional Climate Centre for Africa (WMO/RA-I), the primary client

for related products are technical meteorological communities (e.g NMHSs and

Regional climate Institutions) .

The products need to be further tailored to ultimately

become useful for development and have effective value

to users (challenge number 1).

- As a Continental Implementation Centre (CIC) for the African Union MESA

Programme, ACMAD started to effectively provide climate services for the

Disaster Risk Management Sector.

The services are limited to DRR and should be improved

and expanded to other major development sectors in

Africa (Challenge number 2)

MAJOR CHALLENGES OF ACMAD IN ITS CURRENT ROLE.

These challenges should be tackled with the implementation of

the Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework and SDGs in Africa

Further Strengthen capacity of NMHSs and Regional Centres professionals :

Support provision of weather and climate forecasts;

Improve early warning on droughts, cyclones and other extreme events;

Improve and transfer methods, tools and techniques for user relevant services and their applications at regional and national levels;

Improve access to climate/environment data and knowledge management for sustainable development of arid regions

Reforestation, fight against bush fires, promotion of irrigated agriculture, promotion of arid land cover with grass and other materials reducing erosion by rain and winds are areas of intervention to support resilient arid lands.

CONCLUDING REMARKS – ROLES OF CLIMATE /ENVIRONMENT

INSTITUTIONS for building resilience in Arid lands

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Strengthen/support implementation of Integrated Environmental

Resource Management programmes

Enhance technical/scientific capacity for climate services

development and applications in African Arid lands

Support design and operation of climate resilient

infrastructure for resources management

( e.g water reservoirs, dams for arid regions)

Support smart agriculture initiatives in arid lands;

improve access to climate data and climate knowledge

management for sustainable development of arid regions

Support AUC to mainstream climate resilience in the Common

African Agriculture Development Programmes (CAADP) and other

Relevant initiatives over Arid Lands

CONCLUDING REMARKS –Strategic overarching objectives for

Climate Institutions to support resilience in Arid lands