IEA © OECD/IEA 2017

Role of clean energy in the context of

Paris Agreement

Peter Janoska, Energy Analyst, IEA

COP 23, Bonn, 15 November 2017

© IEA 2017

The IEA works around the world to support an

accelerated clean energy transitions that is

enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS

supported by ANALYSIS

and built on DATA

© OECD/IEA 2017

Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?

IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even

though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016

Gt

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

© OECD/IEA 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Efficiency 40%

Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

How far can technology take us?

Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Efficiency 40%

Renewables35%Fuel switching5%Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

Efficiency 34%

Renewables 15%

Fuel switching 18%

Nuclear 1%

CCS 32%

Global CO2 reductions by technology area

2 degrees Scenario – 2DS

Reference Technology Scenario – RTS

Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS

0 200 400

Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

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The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised

Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong

push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.

Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind

Building construction

Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles

Lighting, appliances and building equipment

Electric vehicles

Energy-intensive industrial processes

Transport biofuels

Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power

●Not on track

●Accelerated improvement needed

●On track

© OECD/IEA 2017

Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace?

Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS

Recent successes in solar and wind

will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Last Decade

Last year

2017-2030

2030-2060

GW per year

Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables

© OECD/IEA 2017

: Power sector example

The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO2 per kilowatt

hour (gCO2/kWh) in 2025 and close to zero gCO2/kWh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction.

Power Generation

23%

Oil & Gas 46%

Coal 4%

Electricity Networks

14%

Energy Efficiency

12%

Thermal Power

7%

Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in

IEA scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

gCO

2/kW

h

Historic

2DS average

2DS new build

Indicators of energy system transformation

© OECD/IEA 2017

The future is electric

Electricity becomes on a global level the largest final energy carrier in the 2DS and B2DS, with the electricity

share in final energy use more than doubling compared to today, up to 41% in the B2DS in 2060.

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

TW

h

Statistics

RTS

2DS

B2DS

Global final electricity demand Change in final electricity demand in 2060

-8 000

-6 000

-4 000

-2 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

2DS vs RTS B2DS vs 2DS

TWh

Transport

Agriculture

Services

Residential

Industry

© OECD/IEA 2017

The fuel mix to generate electricity is vastly different to today

The average carbon intensity of power generation falls from around 520 gCO2/kWh today to

Below zero in the B2DS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RTS 2DS B2DS

2014 2060

Ele

ctri

city

mix

Fossil w/o CCS Fossil with CCS Nuclear Bioenergy with CCS Renewables

© OECD/IEA 2017

Nuclear additions need to double current rate to meet 2DS contributions

2016 saw the highest nuclear capacity additions since 1990, but new construction starts down sharply

Capacity additions and reactors under construction

© OECD/IEA 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Global clean energy RD&D spending

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2021

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

Mission Innovation

Mission Innovation

Top 3 IT company R&D spenders

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.

© OECD/IEA 2017

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Public and private sector invest in different type of innovation.

Public spending supports technologies that are further from the market or have high development and

demonstration costs, including nuclear, CCS and ocean energy.

Tap all the potential: Complementary public and private RD&D is needed

IEA member country spending in 2016 Venture Capital investment breakdown for 2016 Energy efficiency (except transport)

CCS

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Transport

Hydro and marine

Nuclear

Hydrogen and fuel cells

Energy storage

Other

© OECD/IEA 2017

Conclusions

• Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by

policies and technologies, but progress is too slow

• An integrated systems approach considering all technology

options must be implemented now to accelerate progress

• Each country should define its own transition path and scale-

up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly

• Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require

unprecedented technology policies and investments

• Innovation can deliver, but needs long term technology

investment prioritisation across both public and private sectors

© OECD/IEA 2017

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