The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football

Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. WeinbachReceived 8 April 2005; received in revised form 30 November 2005; accepted 24 May 2006The Uncertainty of Outcome and Scoring Effects on Nielsen Ratings for Monday Night FootballExisting DataEconomic studies of competitive balanceCollege Football (Eckard, 1998)Professional Football (Grier & Tollison, 1984)Nature of competitive balanceSanderson & Siegfried (2003), Fort (2003)Empirical studiesSchmidt & Berri (2001), Humphreys (2003), Utt & Fort (2002)Sports betting marketsPaul & Weinbech (2002) - NFLPaul, Weinbech & Wilson (2004) - NBAPrevious economic studies have attempted to discern the effect of competitive balance on league attendance and other figures. It is assumed that leagues that are more competitive will draw more fans. Likely that as leagues become more competitive, individual games become more compelling as the games offer a greater uncertainty of outcome.

Empirical studies find that attendance at games is influenced positively by an increase in competitive balance measured by either the standard deviation or Gini coefficient of team win percentages2Paul & WeinbachUse regression models to analyze Nielsen Ratings for Monday Night Football (MNF)Uncertainty of outcome hypothesis and scoring effectsWhat factors attract and keep viewers?Start-of-Game Uncertainty of outcome, quality of teams and expected scoringWithin-Game Changes Halftime score differential, halftime total points scored and quality of teams playingFans prefer games with a quality match-up between winning teams, a high level of uncertainty of outcome and high-scoringStudy uses simple regression models for the SOG Nielsen ratings and another model for the Change in Nielsen ratings during the game for MNF from 1991-2002

Goal is to test the hypothesis that games between quality teams with a high uncertainty of outcome, likely brought about by competitive balance in the league, leads to more fans.3Start-of-Game & Change in Intra-GameDemand for watching MNF

#1: Start-of-GameNielsen Ratings at the start of the game (9pm EST)Measures of expectations from data about teams in contestWhat attracts viewers to a prime time football game?

6#1: Regression ResultsWorld SeriesNegative & significantSep. & Nov. dummiesSignificantAnnual dummies (1997-2002)Negative & significant at 1%Difference in win percentagesNegative & significant at 1%Sum of win percentagesPositive & significant at 1%Expected scoring (Las Vegas total)Positive & significant at 5%

A greater difference between the abs. value of the win percentages of the teams leads to fewer viewers at the beginning of a MNF telecast

Sum of win percentages better quality teams attract more viewers to MNFFor each additional .100 of win percentage for the teams, the Nielsen ratings will increase by .06705 ratings points increase in the number of viewing households by approx. 73,487Therefore a match-up between two teams having outstanding seasons rather than two teams having poor seasons will lead to a sizeable change in the ratings for the contest

Expected scoring for each additional point in the closing LV total on the game, the Nielsen ratings increase by .0663 points translates into approximately 72,665 more viewing households for each additional point of the total for the same quality of teams (as represented by win percentages) viewers prefer to watch two high-scoring teams to two low-scoring teams.

From the findings of the regression results from the three key variables viewers of MNF prefer a game with a high degree of uncertainty of outcome (negative sign on the difference in win percentages of the team). They also prefer quality matchups between 2 teams with high win percentages (positive sign on the sum win percentages of the teams). All else equal, they prefer expected high-scoring games to expected low-scoring games.7#2: Change in Within-GameChange in ratings at halftime (10:30pm EST)Score differential and total points scoredWhen will viewers turn off the game?What might attract viewers of other programs to tune in?

Dependent variable change in Nielsen Ratings calculated as halftime ratings

When the change in ratings is positive, additional viewers have been added during the course of the gameWhen the change in ratings is negative, more viewers have turned off the football game, than have tuned into the game

Independent variables dummy for the WS, monthly dummies, yearly dummies, sum of win percentages of the teams, the halftime score differential, and the halftime total points scored

Main variables of interest halftime score differential and the halftime total points scored8#2: Regression Results

World SeriesPositive & significantMonthly dummiesNot individually significantAnnual dummiesSome significant differences (1993, 1997 and 1998)Sum of win percentages of teamsPositive & significant at 5%Halftime score differentialNegative & significant at 1%Halftime total points scoredPositive & significant at 5%Fans appear to react to the relative quality of individual game match-ups games that are played between teams with high win percentages appear to attract more viewers9ConclusionsFans prefer close games between quality teamsPrefer high-scoring games to low-scoring gamesQuality games featuring high-scoring teams:Attract viewers initially to the gameRetain viewers during the gameAttract new viewers as the game progresses

Thoughts on the paper