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RobinStewartandMickJagger,USGS
ContaminantswillplayanimportantroleinassessingoutcomesofscenarioschangeintheBay‐Delta:
Hydrology
Ecology
WithintheCASCaDEcontaminants:
IntegrateecosystemprocessesandInfluencepopulationdynamics
Scenario Climate +
Infrastructure
Source SJR/Sac
Concentration
Chemical Speciation
Aqueous [Contaminant]
Residence Time
Recycling
RisktoHumans
Geochem/ Geomorph
(Jaffe, van der Wegen)
Hydrology (Knowles/ Monsen)
Phytoplankton Uptake
Scenario Climate +
Infrastructure
Fish Population Dynamics (Brown et al.)
PopulationImpact
Proportional Loss of Recruitment
Phytoplankton Biomass/Source (Lucas) Ecological
Effects
Secondary Production Invasive Species (Thompson/Parchaso)
Phytoplankton Uptake
Invertebrate Uptake
Scenario Climate +
Infrastructure
Source SJR/Sac
Concentration
Phytoplankton Uptake
Invertebrate Uptake
Trophic Transfer
Fish Body Burden Organism
Toxicity
RisktoHumans
RisktoWildlife
Fish Population Dynamics (Brown et al.)
PopulationImpact
Proportional Loss of Recruitment
Chemical Speciation
Phytoplankton Biomass/Source (Lucas) Ecological
Effects
Secondary Production Invasive Species (Thompson/Parchaso)
Aqueous [Contaminant]
Residence Time
Recycling
RisktoHumans
Geochem/ Geomorph
(Jaffe, van der Wegen)
Hydrology (Knowles/ Monsen)
OrganismToxicity
Biodynamic Modeling (Luoma/Stewart)
BiodynamicmodelconceptPhysiology:Uptake&
LossRates
Uptakeratefromsolution Uptakerate
fromfoodRateconstant
ofloss
Environment:Concentration&Form
Metalinfood
Metalinsolution
Physicochemicalform
BioaccumulationScenario
ObservedBioaccumulation
SiteX
Metalinfood
FunctionalEcology
Biology
GrowthConventional
BAF
BiodynamicModelParameters
ku[C]w+AE∙IR∙[C]food
ke+kg
steady‐state[Contam.]org=
Uptakefromwater&food
Lossfromeffluxandgrowth
Fieldmeasured[C]w(ug/L)[C]food(μg/gfood)
Laboratoryderivedku(/d) AE(%fromfood)ke(/d) IR(gfood/gtiss∙d)kg(/d)
=
SeleniumPrimer‐Toxicology
SesubstitutesforSinionicdisulfidebondsofproteins⇒ tertiarystructures
(e.g.tissues)
AdultMosquitofishElement–metalloid,sulfuranalogue,
inorganiccontaminantNutrient–requiredbyacellular
antioxidantenzymePoison‐potentteratogen
PresserandLuoma,2006
SeleniumPrimer‐Sources
AgricultureIrrigation
Oilrefineries
TheamountandproportionofSanJoaquin(Seleniumsource)relativetoSacramentoRiverwaterenteringtheBay‐Deltawilllikelychangeunderdifferentscenarios
TheSeleniumCASCaDE
San Francisco Bay/Delta (Courtesy of Nancy Monsen)
WatershedinflowstoSJR:SACDeltaingfdl-a2 scenario
90% percentile
SJR
:SA
C W
ater
shed
inflo
ws
Preliminary
SeconcentrationsinCorbulahavechangedovertime
Extend dataset
through 2008
Cor
bula
Se
conc
. (µg
/g d
ry w
t.)
Leng
th-a
djus
ted
@ Carquinez St.
SeconcentrationsinCorbulahavechangedovertime,butperhapsfordifferentreasons
Extend dataset
through 2008
Cor
bula
Se
conc
. (µg
/g d
ry w
t.)
Leng
th-a
djus
ted
Refinery modifications
HigherSefood[Cf]
HigherSefood[Cf]HigherIRduetomore
food
AE∙IR∙[C]food
ke+kg[C]org=
1931
19771989
≈1psu
1983
DistributioninNormalHydrologicYears
MaximumSalinityIntrusionCorbulaamurensis
Thompson&Parchaso
TheSeleniumCASCaDE
HowwillchangesindistributionsofclamsinfluenceSebioaccumulationandtrophictransferofSetotoppredators?
Species‐specificphysiologycanenhanceSeleniumuptake
Prey‐basedReproductiveToxicityThreshold
DifferenceinSeaccumulationatthebaseofthefoodchainispropagatedtotoppredators
δ15N Trophicposition
Selenium
con
c.(μ
g/gdrywt.)
Corbulaamurensis‐based
Estimated:Corbiculafluminea‐based
Zooplankton‐based
Stewartetal.2004
MercurytrophictransferStewartetal.2008Luomaetal.2008
0
5
10
15
20
‐32‐30‐28‐26‐24‐22
Clam δ13C
Cla
m S
e co
nc. (
µg/g
dry
wt.)
FresherSaltier
0
5
10
15
20
‐32‐30‐28‐26‐24‐22
Clam δ13C
Cla
m S
e co
nc. (
µg/g
dry
wt.)
Clam Se conc. decline upstream and between species
FresherSaltier
0
5
10
15
20
‐32‐30‐28‐26‐24‐22
Clam or W. sturgeon δ13C
Cla
m a
nd W
hite
stu
rgeo
n S
e co
nc. (
µg/g
dry
wt.)
FresherSaltier
0
10
20
30
40White sturgeon Se conc. decline upstream with Clam Se conc.
Reproductive threshold
0
5
10
15
20
‐32‐30‐28‐26‐24‐22
Clam δ13C
Cla
m a
nd W
hite
stu
rgeo
n S
e co
nc. (
µg/g
dry
wt.)
SowhathappensundermaximumsalinityintrusionintotheDeltaandweextendCorbulaoccurrenceupstream?
FresherSaltier
0
10
20
30
40
Reproductive threshold
0
5
10
15
20
‐32‐30‐28‐26‐24‐22
Clam δ13C
Cla
m a
nd W
hite
stu
rgeo
n S
e co
nc. (
µg/g
dry
wt.)
SowhathappensundermaximumsalinityintrusionintotheDeltaandweextendCorbulaoccurrenceupstream?
FresherSaltier
0
10
20
30
40
Increase in White sturgeon Se conc. upstream
Reproductive threshold
ProportionalLossofRecruitment
Conclusions Hydrologicalandecologicalchangesdrivenbyclimate
changecouldbeinfluentialindeterminingtheimpactsofSecontaminationinthisestuary
Usemodeltodistinguishtherelativecontributionof:FOODAVAILABILITYSECONCENTRATIONSINFOOD
EvaluatechangesinclamtissueSeconcentrationsrelativetochangesinfoodavailabilityandSeconcentrationsinfoodunderdifferentscenarios
Invasivespecies Estimateimpactsonfishpopulations
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