View
214
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
1
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility
2. The role of education
3. Returns to higher education
4. What has sex got to do with it?
5. Why is it more important to do well at university?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
2
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
i. What would perfect mobility (= zero persistence) look like (S3)?
ii. Absolute immobility/persistence (S4)?
iii. Partial mobility/persistence (S5-6)?
iv. The evidence for the Nordic countries, the US and the UK:
a) What would you expect?
b) (The American Dream vs the rigidity of the Nanny State?
c) The evidence . . . (S7)
d) Digging deeper . . . Non-linearity
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
3
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
Perfect Mobility
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
xx
x
x
x
x
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
4
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
Perfect Immobility
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
xx
x
x
xx
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
5
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
Imperfect Mobility
x
xx
xxx
x
xx
xx x
x x
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
6
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
Regression line
x
xx
xxx
x
xx
xx x
x x
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
7
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
The US and Norway: which is which?
And where is the UK?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
8
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility . . . Digging deeper
Yt-1
Yt
Yt = Yt-1
Flat-bottoms?
x
x
xxx x
xx
xx
xx
xx
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
9
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Digging deeper – Transition Matrices
SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.303 0.235 0.165 0.174 0.122fq2 0.241 0.227 0.182 0.193 0.157fq3 0.188 0.195 0.227 0.206 0.184fq4 0.161 0.175 0.229 0.195 0.240fq5 0.107 0.168 0.197 0.231 0.297
An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK
Source: Naylor et al., using NCDS 1958 birth cohort data.
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
10
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Digging deeper – Transition Matrices
SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.303 0.122fq2 fq3 fq4 fq5 0.107 0.297
An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
11
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Digging deeper – Transition Matrices
SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.282 0.119fq2 fq3 fq4 fq5 0.146 0.354
An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; Norway
Less persistence at bottom in Norway than UK
More downward mobility in Norway than UK But High persistence at top
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
12
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Digging deeper – Transition Matrices
SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.422 0.079fq2 fq3 fq4 fq5 0.095 0.360
An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; US
Very high persistence at bottom
Very little downward mobility in the US
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
13
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Why do we observe this flat-bottom pattern in the Nordic countries, but not in the UK or the US?
Hypotheses . . . ?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
14
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility
2. The role of education
3. Returns to higher education
4. What has sex got to do with it?
5. Why is it more important to do well at university?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
15
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures
1012
1416
Mea
n ye
ars
of s
choo
ling
6 8 10 12
Denmark
1012
1416
6 8 10 12
Finland10
1214
16M
ean
yea
rs o
f sch
oolin
g
6 8 10 12
Norway
1012
1416
9 10 11 12 13
US
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
16
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Changes over time: Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures
Note some evidence for the UK regarding changes in mobility over time following policy regime changes:
(i) Intergenerational Mobility of 1958 birth cohort greater than that of their parents
(comprehensive education, HE expansion)
(ii) Intergenerational Mobility of 1970 birth cohort less than that of the 1958 birth cohort
(HE expansion coupled with switch from grants to loans)
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
17
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility
2. The role of education
3. Returns to higher education
4. What has sex got to do with it?
5. Why is it more important to do well at university?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
18
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Current Policy Debate in the UK: Higher Fees/Differential Fees
Evidence from:
BCS70 (Smith, Naylor and Bratti) and from USR-HESA data (Smith and Naylor)
to show substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree (around average of circa 18%) according to:
Subject Studied, Institution
Implications are . . . ?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
19
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
But . . .
evidence also shows substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree according to:
school background
social class background
degree class: the premium for a degree (relative to A-levels) of:
20% for a 2.1 or 1st
10% for a 2.2 or lower
Implications are . . . ?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
20
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
Evidence also shows differences in HE performance by school background.
Implication is . . .?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
21
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility
2. The role of education
3. Returns to higher education
4. What has sex got to do with it?
5. Why is it more important to do well at university?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
22
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Empirical indicators of marital sorting
Denmark Finland Norway UK US
Correlations in educational attainment
Female cohort members
Dk No UK US
self vs. husband .433 .495 .533 .562
her father vs. her mother .476 .489 .571 .627
her father vs. his father .153 .244 .359
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
23
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education
1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility
2. The role of education
3. Returns to higher education
4. What has sex got to do with it?
5. Why is it more important to do well at university?
Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009
24
Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Figure 5a: Coefficients on degree class variables over time ( constant earnings) - Males
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Coe
ff
First 2:2 Third Other