Robert ThielerUSGS Research Geologist

America’s Coastal Crisis coastal America’s Coastal Crisis coastal population population and development are increasingly and development are increasingly vulnerable vulnerable to coastal hazardsto coastal hazards

(modified after Bindoff, 2007; Rahmstorf, 2007)

Past, Current and Projected Sea-level RisePast, Current and Projected Sea-level Rise

Time Scales Time Scales of Coastal of Coastal ChangeChange

Short-term Variance(hours to decade)

Storm impact/recoveryAnnual cycles

El Niño

Long-term Trend(decades to centuries)

Sediment deficit or surplusSea-level rise

Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise:Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise:A Preliminary National AssessmentA Preliminary National Assessment

Vulnerability Ranking

Coastal Vulnerability StudiesCoastal Vulnerability Studiesin the National Parksin the National Parks

Study sites in the Contiguous U.S.Study sites in the Contiguous U.S. Study sites in Hawaii, Alaska, Study sites in Hawaii, Alaska, and U.S. Territoriesand U.S. Territories

Cape Cod NSFire Island NSGateway NRAGulf Islands NSCape Hatteras NS

Cumberland Island NSAssateague Island NSDry Tortugas NPPadre Island NSChannel Islands NP

Golden Gate NRAPoint Reyes NSOlympic NPApostle Islands NLIndiana Dunes NL

Sleeping Bear Dunes NLKenai Fjord NPGlacier Bay NPPKaloko-Honokohau NHPNP of American SamoaVirgin Islands NPWar in the Pacific NHP

Assessments Assessments Help ManagersHelp ManagersPlan For HazardsPlan For Hazards

Norwegian Memorial

Cape Alava

Sand Point

0 30 60 90 12015Kilometers

Eastern North Carolina

Elevation source: 30-m DEM Elevation source: 3-m lidar data

Dark blue: Land ≤ 1 meter in elevation

Light blue: Area of uncertainty associated with 1 meter elevation

Wetland Vertical Development

Mineral sediment deposition

Plant matter accumulation - soil (root production/decomposition)

Compaction

Shrink-Swell

Coastal Wetlands RespondCoastal Wetlands RespondDynamically to Environmental ChangeDynamically to Environmental Change

R. Carlson

D. Cahoon

D. Cahoon

Mid-Atlantic Assessment of PotentialMid-Atlantic Assessment of PotentialDynamic Coastal Responses to Sea-level RiseDynamic Coastal Responses to Sea-level Rise

Bluff erosion

Overwash

Island Breaching

Threshold Crossing(Gutierrez et al., 2007)

Cape Lookout

CapeHatteras

Oregon Inlet

(NASA photo)

USGS North Carolina Coastal Geology USGS North Carolina Coastal Geology Cooperative ProgramCooperative Program

A regional, multi-collaborator effort toA regional, multi-collaborator effort to

understand and predict coastal change understand and predict coastal change

and hazardsand hazards

Coastal Erosion Hotspots and Geology are RelatedCoastal Erosion Hotspots and Geology are Related

Paleo-Roanoke River ChannelPasses Under Kitty Hawk

Kitty Hawk Bay

USGS and Partner Science to Provide USGS and Partner Science to Provide Decision SupportDecision Support