Offshore Wind Power Roadmap For South EasternEuropean Economies — Key Steps To ReduceIdentified Project DevelopmentCosts|Risks|UncertaintiesStavros Ph.Thomas∗,1, Confidential† and Philip Marcus‡

∗Anemorphosis Research Group, †Iberdrola Renewables, ‡NATURA 2000

ABSTRACT Wind Energy development faces numerous challenges and has become subject to unstableinternational conditions in economical and social terms. To meet these challenges offshore wind has a keyrole to play. To sustain public acceptance, establish cost and time effective project development methodologiesand provide continued protection to vulnerable coastal and marine ecosystems, it is important to build uponthe positive experience gained so far with the use of innovative IT planning and development applications.This article describes some of the most significant experiences with offshore wind power and discusses theenvironmental issues and project development challenges that wind industry has had to address in the nearfuture. The implementation of an innovative IT platform to drive project scoping and identify key issues on thewind energy plants infrastructure is also presented.

KEYWORDS

Offshore WindEuropeIT WindRoadMap

Contributors: Anemorphosis|Iberdrola|Stakeholders Mecha-nisms|NATURA 2000 Network.

With the goal of a more secure, cleaner and affordable energyfuture in mind, Anemorphosis has developed a suite of roadmapsthat consider possible scenarios moving from the present to thelonger term horizon of 2050. This involves considering resourceavailability, technology and supply chain development paths,transmission and system integration requirements and our ex-isting and future regulatory environment. A roadmap considersthese issues, maps a potential path to a future deployment scenario,and estimates some of the benefits of achieving that scenario.

The scenarios recognize that wind turbine technology, as wellas technology for integrating wind energy into electricity systemsdesigned for conventional power, will continue to advance in thecoming decades. Thus sites being developed today have the poten-tial to repower with more efficient technology or larger capacityturbines.

Copyright © 2015 Stavros Philipp Thomas et al.Manuscript compiled: Saturday 1st August, 2015%1For more info please contact Anemorphosis Research Group atinfo@anemorphosis.com. This report is a part of a confidential evaluation. The roadmapis published to facilitate the economic recession of the market and offshore wind industryas a part of a holistic research.

INTRODUCTION

In order to develop a perspective on the future of wind powerand provide a holistically proposed solution we have analyzedseveral factors that are positively affecting wind power projectdevelopment in order to gauge both the potential impact of eachvariable, as well as the likelihood that the factor will persist forthe mediumor long-term. Since wind projects are anticipated toprovide investors returns over a 25-to-30 year-life, it is importantto assess the likely impact of growth drivers beyond the next fewyears.

Wind Farm Project Management and the development method-ologies and pratctises associated with the entire life-cycle is nota simple task. There are three key success factors to effectivelymanage the risks associated with the wind power project devel-opment procedures. Firstly, the use of a proven project deliverymethodology, which has been refined over time to minimise projectrisk. Getting this wrong, whether from a planning, timing, bud-geting, tenders evaluation, accessibility, or safety perspective canbe extremely expensive and undermine the business case for theproject. Secondly, the need for engineering resources with specificelectricity sector experience. This is critical for managing interfaceson the project and ensuring that both the physical and electricalsystems are considered. The third factor is the availability of ex-

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INVESTIGATIONS

perienced project management staff to oversee both the planningand implementation of the project.

Through this confidential investigation conducted by theANEMORPHOSIS Research Group, a part of this multi-directionalreport is seeking potential and promising solutions regarding thefollowing key program activity areas:

• Technology Development including specific activities to helpovercome the technological barriers for offshore wind energy.

• Market Barrier Removal including specific activities that willhelp reduce the impact of non-technical barriers for offshorewind energy.

• Crosscutting Offshore Wind Energy Solutions including theongoing Offshore Wind Advanced Technology.

• Demonstration projects and specific activities that will im-prove resource assessment, site characterization, electricitydelivery, and grid integration.

• Overall Strategy and Impact to broadly consider the offshorewind portfolio performance and path forward for offshorewind energy in the Southeastern European economies.

WIND POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

The process of developing wind projects offshore typically lasts5-10 years from project initiation to the wind farm has been com-missioned. This is followed by 20-30 years of operations duringwhich the up-front investment is recouped. Figure 1, illustrates themain steps of developing a project from idea to a commissionedwind farm.

The development stage, which is also one of the most criticalones for the economic and technical viability of the investment, ischaracterised by establishment of the project layout on basis of forexample environmental, geotechnical and wind studies. The tur-bine models should be placed such that soil and wind conditionsfavour lower CAPEX and higher AEP. Furthermore, a preliminaryfinancial model should be built in order to assess if the investmentcase can be expected to be economically feasible.

Procurement contracts on construction parameters and turbineservice procedures are conditioned on the construction start or thecommissioning of the project. New insights on production, CAPEXand OPEX feed into a refinement of the sensitivity financial modelwhich in turn supports financial consent from investors, lendersand developers. After FID the project goes into the final stages ofthe project lifecycle, which includes construction, operation andmaintenance.

Indeed the financial modeling is a dynamic and continuousprocess and thus, is refined and adjusted in a parallel mannerwith the project development life cycle. When performing a windinvestment case analysis we should focus on seven key elementsin order to properly understand the investment base case andconduct sensitivity analyses, especially under economic recessionmarket circumstances. Figure 2, illustrates these critical elementsthat frame the investment case evaluation.

Offshore Project CostsBased on benchmark data we have been able to perform variousanalyses on project costs of offshore wind farms located in Europe.We concluded that wind turbines with higher name plate capacitylocated in greater site depth have increased total project costs perinstalled MW historically.

This is supported by the figure 3 which shows project costs for34 offshore projects (blue dots) and compares it to sea depth at theproject site and size of the employed turbines. The green trend lines

Figure 2 Economic Evaluation Critical Parameters.

illustrate increasing project costs with increasing site depth andturbine size, respectively. The latter might seem counter intuitiveand could in part be explained by the fact that larger turbinesmay comprise new-prototypes and relatively unproven technology.The positive relation between project costs and site depth maybe explained by the fact that greater site depth requires largerand more complex foundations, very big cranes and supportinginfrastructure in general, which in turn leads to higher projectcosts. However, according to EY, Deloitte, Allianz and others, ITinnovation and standardisation are expected to help the industryin realising its cost reduction targets of up to 40% for offshore windenergy.

Figure 3 Our analysis based on more than 40 international mar-ket reports and 34 offshore projects commisioned/commisioningafter 2010 as well as our experience with offshore projects. Mainressource on split: IRENA 2012 and Deloitte.

TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES

Nowadays, offshore wind turbines installed generally in the rangebetween 3 and 5 MW although prototypes of power up to 7 MWand even higher are currently tested (Only a few months after itssales launch at the EWEA Offshore trade show in Copenhagen,the new Siemens offshore flagship wind turbine of the type SWT-7.0-154 has now been installed as a prototype), indicating the man-ufacturing trends concerning future wind turbines operating inmaritime environments. On top of that, wind farms’ total capacityhas increased as well. Before 2000, average wind farm size wasbelow 20 MW. Today, the experience has grown significantly sothat many countries are building large (average size of projectsexceeds 150 MW), utility-scale offshore wind farms or at least haveplans to do so.

Nevertheless, the vast majority of the existing large-scale com-mercial projects still use shallow-water technology (located at lessthan 30 m water depth) although the idea of going deeper is gradu-ally moving closer towards implementation. Actually, the average

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Figure 1 Project lifecycle of onshore wind farm assets.

water depth remains below 20 m, (excluding the first full scalefloating wind turbine (Hywind) which was installed in 2009 off theNorwegian coast at a water depth of 220 m. On the other hand, theaverage distance from shore ten years ago was below 5 km, whiletoday is close to 30 km—confirming that offshore wind turbinesare installed increasingly away from the shores.

A. ProductionAnother important input parameter in the economic viability ofthe project is the expected power production. As sufficient windspeeds and capacity factor at the project site are the main driversof wind energy production and of wind park revenues, the un-derstanding and forecast of wind become essential. Therefore, alot of effort must be put into assessing the wind energy resourceat the given project site with the highest prediction accuracy andby taking into consideration the reliable numbers for the capacityfactors.

In general, actual capacity factors for onshore wind farms oscil-late across time and regions, with an average value being between20 and 30%. For instance, the average European value between2003 and 2009 has been recorded at about 21%. The highest valueshave been recorded for Greece and the UK (i.e. equal to 29.3%and 26%, respectively) due to the existence of many low densitypopulation areas which benefit of high wind speeds and enablethe siting of wind farms.

On the other hand, offshore sites may have the ability to demon-strate quite higher capacity factors than onshore counterparts (as aresult of the higher mean power coefficient which is usually metin offshore installations), typically ranging from 20% to 40%. Onemay see that capacity factor values, in some cases, even reached50%, however, this is not the rule since there are cases where therecorded capacity factor may be quite low mainly as a result of thecombination of extended downtimes due to several system failuresand the tough conditions usually met in marine environments.

The traditional approach for gathering wind data is to constructa meteorological mast equipped with anemometers. However, inthe offshore environment this practice is both difficult and expen-sive to implement. Nowadays, a plethora of devices is available.WINDCUBE and FLidar, the floating LiDAR technology are justbetween the most famous innovative solutions to these problems.

FLiDAR can measure wind at turbine hub-height and provideaccurate and reliable data on wind speed, wind direction, andturbulence. Additional sensors can be integrated onto the buoy toachieve a full environmental assessment of the location.

Figure 4 Wind distribution assumption and turbine choice

B. AEP Uncertainty EstimationModel uncertainty relates to the uncertainty of the parametersestimated based on the wind study. Consequently, while windstudies are often based on very complex models, there is a risk thatthey contain estimation errors, such as measurement errors and/ormodel errors. Measurement errors include that measured windcharacteristics may not be correct due to for example dysfunctionalmeasurement instruments or incorrect calibration of these. Modelerrors for example relate to the risk that measured historical windconditions are not representative of the future wind conditions.

Furthermore, the wind study may be wrong with respect toassessing the effect a turbine has on the turbine specific productionof the turbine behind it, which is called wake effects. The size of thewake effects is affected by factors such as wind speed, wind density,turbulence and distance between turbines, meaning that wakeeffects may be larger when the wind is coming from a direction inwhich turbines are located closer to each other. We consider modeluncertainty as a static uncertainty, which means that it is fixed overtime. This implies that if the wind study has underestimated thetrue wind average speed or wake effects for the first operational

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year, it will be underestimated in all years. Consequently, takingwind study uncertainty into account, we reach static P75 and P90measures that are fixed over the life of the project.

At figure 5, we illustrate how different P measures are affectedby how wind variability is taken into account (whether wind vari-ability is averaged or not). The blue line illustrates productionuncertainty when all production uncertainty is considered on anaverage basis, while the green line illustrates production uncer-tainty when wind variability is based on short-term uncertainty.

Figure 5 AEP and Uncertainty. The graph is based on a 2.3MWturbine

C. Technical Availability and AccessibilityThe technical availability of a wind turbine depends, among others,on: The technological status (experience gain effect throughoutthe years) of the installation at the time it went online (increasingexperience in both production and operation issues in the offshoresector suggests that the failure rate decreases and the reliabilityincreases respectively). The technical availability changes (agingeffect) during the installation’s operational life.

The accessibility difficulties (accessibility effect) of the windfarm under investigation. This parameter is, as aforementioned,of special interest for offshore wind parks, especially during win-ter, due to bad weather conditions (high winds and huge wavessuspend the ship departure, thus preventing maintenance andrepair of the existing wind turbines). Nowadays, contemporaryland-based wind turbines and wind farms reach availability levelsof 98% or even more (Kaldellis, 2002, 2004; Harman et al., 2008)but, once these wind turbines are placed offshore the accessibilitymay be significantly restricted, thus causing a considerable impactto the availability of the wind farm and in turn to the energy andeconomic performance of the whole project.

This is not always the case however; apart from the distancefrom the shore, the accessibility to a wind farm’s installation sitedepends also on several other parameters such as local climateconditions and the type and availability of the maintenance strat-egy adopted (the limited size of some wind farms does not alwaysjustify the purchase of a purpose built vessel so there may besignificant delays if the vessel is, for example, away for anotherassignment). Thus, there are cases where the impact may be moreor less significant than the expected one.

A case with low recorded availability is North Hoyle offshorewind farm, which is located in the UK, at an average distance fromthe shore equal to 8 km (see also Table 3 where recorded availabilitydata for several wind farms are presented). As it is mentioned in(BERR, 2005), the availability of this wind farm during a one-yearperiod (2004–2005) was recorded equal to 84The most notable

sources of unplanned maintenance and downtime have occurreddue to termination of cable burial and rock dumping activitiesas well as high-voltage cable and generator faults. It is worthmentioning that the downtime recorded splits to 66% owed toturbine failure, 12% to construction activities, 5% to scheduledmaintenance and 17% to site inaccessibility due to harsh weatherconditions.

Another example with even lower availability (67%) is the caseof Barrow offshore wind farm (see also Table 1), also located about8 km far from shore, in the UK. The total average availability ofthis project is quoted as 67% for one-year period between July 2006and June 2007. This low availability is due to a number of windturbine faults, mainly generator bearings and rotor cable faultscombined with low access to the site because of high waves duringthat time period.

RISKS IDENTIFICATION

To identify and evaluate the potential risks of the offshore projectsrisk as well as determining the likelihood of occurrence and thefinancial impact is also a very critical factor. The participants ineach risk workshop should include all key stakeholders in a projectat a given stage, ensuring an adequate, thorough and objectiveevaluation.

We often find that risk workshops that are somewhat struc-tured and operationalized through for example a risk matrix asshown on Figure 6 are more valuable for the future process evalua-tion. It facilitates mapping of the identified risks according to themagnitude of the potential impact and the probability of the riskmaterialising into an unwanted outcome. The matrix can furtherbe applied for prioritising the identified risks and determiningde-risking actions on the most urgent risks.

Critical Availability Factors

As a result of the above, the critical role of the technical avail-ability over a period of time for the energy production of a givenwind turbine or an entire wind farm is reflected. At this point,one should also note that technical availability of a wind turbinedepends, among others, on:

• The technological status (experience gain effect throughoutthe years) of the installation at the time it went online (increas-ing experience in both production and operation issues in theoffshore sector suggests that the failure rate decreases and thereliability increases respectively.

• The technical availability changes (aging effect) during theinstallation’s operational life.

• The accessibility difficulties (accessibility effect) of the windfarm under investigation. This parameter is, as aforemen-tioned, of special interest for offshore wind parks, especiallyduring winter, due to bad weather conditions (high windsand huge waves suspend the ship departure, thus preventingmaintenance and repair of the existing wind turbines.

SAFETY

It is essential that today’s designers, manufacturers and projectdevelopers involved with the latest energy generation technologydevelop solutions that are robust, reliable and safe.

Certification and due-diligence reviews of marine and windenergy devices are necessary as part of the confidence buildingprocess and will demand validated design analysis. Making use

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Figure 6 Offshore Project Risks Matrix.

of such reliable and independent analysis, supported by appropri-ate design codes and standards, will help to deliver tomorrow’ssustainable solutions.

On Tuesday 17th February 2015, FoundOcean and BASFlaunched an integrated material and service system for the provi-sion of a new high strength grout, MasterFlow 9800, in Edinburgh,UK. The high strength grout is the result of over 3 years of jointdevelopment, the primary purpose of which has been to deliversignificant and quantifiable improvements in productivity andsafety when grouting offshore structures.

Capital Safety, a global provider in fall protection and home ofthe DBI-SALA and PROTECTA brands, mention that a compre-hensive, objective assessment of the possible human health effectsof the proposed wind projects is often underestimated. To over-come the consequences of the lack of reliable safety regulationson offshore wind energy constructions, the development progressoptimization, risks identification with IT solutions and design im-provements could mitigate the principal risks on the workforceinvolved in such complex projects.

ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY RAISE PRODUCTIVITY,LOWERS COSTS

High wind resource areas are also becoming even more productivethanks to a combination of longer blades, improved siting tech-niques and other factors. Some older sites are being repoweredby new turbines. Others are receiving a variety of refinements toexisting turbines such as blade tip extensions, vortex generators,and improved electronics, making them more productive. As aresult, the average annual “capacity factor,” or percentage of themaximum rated capacity that a turbine generates year-round, nowtops 50 percent in some cases.

These innovations have contributed to a drop in the price ofwind-generated electricity. Wind’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE,the net cost to install and operate a turbine, divided by its life-time energy output), has dropped 58 percent in just five years,according to the most recent study by Wall Street financial advi-

sory firm Lazard. Through technology advancements, hard work,and performance-based incentives wind could be the dominanttechnology in energy. Without stable regulatory policy and en-vironmental frameworks, the continued innovation and furtherwind cost reductions needed could be placed in jeopardy.

ROADMAP FOR ACTION

Anemorphosis analysis concludes that the Study Scenario de-scribed on the Introduction of this report is technically feasible,generates long-term savings, and brings substantial environmen-tal and local community benefits. However, a balanced set ofkey actions is required, to achieve the wind deployment levelsof the Study Scenario. Optimizing wind power project devel-opment, requires coordination among multiple parties who canimplement a set of complementary approaches, PD methodologiesand strategies optimization, stakeholders collaboration, offshoregrid reliability, tenders and supply chain efficiency, IT solutions tofacilitate and accelerate the associated project development andproject planning procedures. The Study Scenario organizes effortsinto three key themes—reducing wind costs, expanding developableareas, and increasing the ROI.

The strategic approach is summarized in Table 2. Actions high-lighted in the the Study Scenario Roadmap inform ongoing DOEtechnology research and development initiatives. By increasingenergy production per euro invested, among other goals, such ini-tiatives are intended to support broadbased cost reductions as wellas the expansion of wind development potential in areas wherelimited potential was thought to exist, including NATURA 2000environmentally protected sites where the regulation frameworkis quite problematic.

RELATIVE IMPACT ON LCOE

Figure 7 shows the impact on LCOE of each intervention if appliedseparately as apart of a parametric analysis. Because the effects ofinterventions are correlated, when multiple interventions are ap-

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plied to a project, the resultant total project impacts may be smallerthan the sum of predicted impacts for each unique intervention.

Figure 7 Relative Impact on LCOE

Figure 8 depicts a plausible timeline that would take advantageof all of the interventions detailed here that could collectively leadto a 50% cost reduction from the base case. This finding does notpreclude the reality that bids could ultimately come from projectdevelopers that use some but not all of the interventions here orwho have other routes to cost reduction which might be possibleon a faster schedule than that shown here.

If the RoadMap Scenario actions were to implement for a fullsuite of interventions, first steps would include, in active collabo-ration with industry:

• Initiating the process to obtain a permit for offshore projectsin NATURA offshore sites.

• Beginning stakeholder engagement in coastal communities todetermine siting preferences.

• Policy design improvement, including:

– Market visibility commitments.– Revenue policy– Public/private partnership for financing offshore wind

projects.– Revenue contract policy– Siting/exclusion areas.– Design and conduct wind resource and wave assessment

campaign.– Contract for and conduct social and technical surveys.– Contract for and conduct environmental surveys.

KEY FINDINGS

• Given favorable developments in policy and infrastructure,Greece can achieve 70GW deployment of offshore wind by2050

• Wind energy has the potential to generate enough electricityto exceed domestic demand by 2020

• A comparison of electricity demand and wind generationpotential shows the capacity for Greece’s wind market tobecome export driven in the 2020–2030 timeframe.

• As the onshore and offshore wind markets mature, re-powering and operation and maintenance will become key to

Figure 8 Sequencing of Specific IT and PD Improvements.

the retention of a sustainable industry: preparation for thiseventuality will increase our benefit from this opportunity.

• The repowering of onshore and offshore wind turbines willcontribute over 25GW to 2050

• The potential economic value of electricity generated by windcould reach almost €15 billion by 2050

• Onshore and offshore wind could create 20,000 direct instal-lation and O&M jobs by 2040. Offshore wind represents asignificantly greater employment opportunity than onshorewind post-2025

• The wind industry is expected to hit a peak annual investmentof between €6 billion and €12 billion by 2040. Wind has acumulative Investment potential of €100 - €200 billion in 2050

• Onshore and Offshore wind represent a significant carbonabatement opportunity - Wind could abate between 400 and450 Mt of CO2 by 2050

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds that the planned offshore projects LCOEs are likelyto be roughly 20% lower by FC 2020 than they would be if installedin 2015, if the expected technological innovation, increased globalcompetition among OSW industry supply chain, and industry-wide efficiencies materialize as anticipated. Moreover, anticipatedcontinuous technological development between FC 2020 and FC2025 can lower costs by a further, albeit smaller amount (roughly-6%).

With action, offshore wind can further benefit from cost reduc-tion strategies that are inherently local (predevelopment, policy,and infrastructure). The analyses demonstrate that the followingPD optimization and IT improvement actions can lower the LCOEby an additional third, and have other significant if not quantifiableimpacts. These actions include:

1. Providing a high degree of site characterization for earlyprojects and thereby reduce DEVEX and the cost of devel-opment capital.

2. Facilitating through policy revenue contracts that substan-tially reduce risk to lenders.

3. Creating market visibility that draws greater competition

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among suppliers and contractors and draws a different classof investor to offshore projects.

4. Develop policies related to siting and offshore transmissionthat support OSW projects.

5. Developing the infrastructure to reduce costs, including bothport facilities and a trained workforce.

6. Identify key issues and conduct structured problem solvingto investigate reliable solutions.

7. Proactively suggest new value-creating ideas to business andstakeholders.

8. Establish a comprehensive research programme to constantlyimprove the technical and economic performance of oceanenergy conversion devices, which will serve as a backbone forthe industry’s advancement.

9. Develop installation, operation and maintenance methodolo-gies to provide further cost reduction.

10. Integrate previously mapped ocean resources and transmis-sion capacity potentials in Europe through coordinated cam-paigns and to develop spatial planning tools

The impact of these IT interventions and Project Developmentimprovements varies greatly in both quantity and type. By as-sessing the meteorological, water and environmental and groundconditions of potential project sites, the industry as a whole, canachieve a reduction in LCOE (-1.3%). Although this LCOE reduc-tion is relatively modest, there are possibly larger but unquantifi-able benefits that can accrue the state from these actions.

The impact of learning by doing reduces LCOE from 1% to2.6% as scale grows. Policy interventions that substantially reducerevenue and volume risk can reduce LCOE by 15%; setting andcommitting to a pipeline of projects can have an even greaterimpact (up to 25% reduction in LCOE).

The proposed IT interventions and PD-PP improvements donot come without cost. Although the ratepayer impact of theeconomic crisis and unstable framework is beyond the scope of thisstudy, the team estimated the cost of implementing many of theseinterventions. Designing and implementing policy interventionsresults in personnel costs as well as opportunity costs (financial andpolitical). The analyses suggest that investing in the appropriatepolicies can have tremendous pay-off. Technology innovationremains a crucial driver for the potential level of deployment ofwind energy.

The impediments to greater deployment of wind energy are nottrivial. They range from the rate of infrastructure development andaccess to finance, to difficulties in getting or retaining planningpermission and social acceptance. A number of required nearterm policy and infrastructure related actions are identified in theroadmap. Many actions have already begun, and are responding towell articulated calls for a more coherent and coordinated approachto addressing existing barriers to deployment. The developmentof such an approach will enable us to meet our near term targets,and put us on the path to achieving, and reaping the benefits of,the long term deployment scenarios envisaged in this roadmap.

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n Table 1 Risk-consequence illustration for wind energy projects

Possible risk factors Consequence Proposed Solution

The resourcing constraints of manufacturers. The lack of experienced staff could risk thequality of manufacture and testing.

Third-party inspection services during manu-facture and inspection will help meet specifi-cations and deadlines.

Equipment survival in offshore environments. Equipment might have a reduced life span. Operation and Maintenance metrologies andStrategic improvements .

Lack of experience of offshore structures(fixed or floating) and foundations

There is a danger of over or under design,leading to unplanned project costs or evenfailure.

Staff training and critical thinking improvementvia experiences.

New designs are required, for example in-creased turbine size or device prototype.

The lack of experienced staff could risk designquality.

Testing of components, including turbineblades and converters improvements throughresearch and testing.

n Table 2 Roadmap Strategic Approach

Key Themes Issues Addressed Wind Vision Study Scenario Roadmap Action Areas*

Collaboration to reduce windcosts through wind technologycapital and operating cost reduc-tions, increased energy capture,improved reliability, and develop-ment of planning and operatingpractices for cost effective windintegration.

Continuing declines in windpower costs and improved reliabil-ity are needed to improve marketcompetition with other electricitysources.

Levelized cost of electricity reduc-tion trajectory of 24% by 2020,33% by 2030, and 37% by 2050for land-based wind power tech-nology and 22% by 2020, 43% by2030, and 51% by 2050 for off-shore wind power technology tosubstantially reduce or eliminatethe near- and mid-term incremen-tal costs of the Study Scenario.

• Wind Power Resources and SiteCharacterization • Wind PlantTechnology Advancement • Sup-ply Chain, Manufacturing, andLogistics • Wind Power Perfor-mance, Reliability, and Safety •Wind Electricity Delivery and In-tegration • Wind Siting and Per-mitting • Collaboration, Education,and Outreach • Workforce Devel-opment • Policy Analysis

Collaboration to increase marketaccess to U.S. wind resourcesthrough improved power systemflexibility and transmission expan-sion, technology development,streamlined siting and permittingprocesses, and environmentaland competing use research andimpact mitigation.

Continued reduction of deploy-ment barriers as well as en-hanced mitigation strategies to re-sponsibly improve market accessto remote, low wind speed, off-shore, and environmentally sensi-tive locations.

Capture the enduring value ofwind power by analyzing jobgrowth opportunities, evaluatingexisting and proposed policies,and disseminating credible infor-mation.

• Supply Chain, Manufacturing,and Logistics • Collaboration, Ed-ucation, and Outreach • Work-force Development • Policy Anal-ysis

Levelized cost of electricity reduc-tion trajectory of 24% by 2020,33% by 2030, and 37% by 2050for land-based wind power tech-nology and 22% by 2020, 43% by2030, and 51% by 2050 for off-shore wind power technology tosubstantially reduce or eliminatethe near- and mid-term incremen-tal costs of the Study Scenario

Wind deployment sufficient to en-able national wind electricity gen-eration shares of 1020% by 2030,and 35% by 2050.

A sustainable and competitive re-gional and local wind industrysupporting substantial domesticemployment. Public benefits fromreduced emissions and consumerenergy cost savings.

Wind Power Resources and SiteCharacterization • Wind PlantTechnology Advancement • Sup-ply Chain, Manufacturing, and Lo-gistics • Wind Electricity Deliveryand Integration • Wind Siting andPermitting • Collaboration, Educa-tion, and Outreach • Policy Analy-sis

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n Table 3 Availability Levels on several European offshore wind power plants

Project Capacity of each turbine(MW)

Average distance fromshore (km)a

Recorded Availability (%) Comments

Barrow—UK 8 3 67% The low availability is dueto a number of wind tur-bine faults, mainly genera-tor bearings and rotor ca-ble faults combined withlow access to the site be-cause of high waves

Kentish Flats—UK 3 9 87% Availability was relativelylow mainly due to faults ongenerator bearings and ro-tor cables for the slip ringunit and gearbox failures

North Hoyle—UK 2 8 87.4% Availability was mainly af-fected by gearbox bearingfaults and chipped teeth,resulting in gearbox re-placements. It shouldbe noted that gearbox re-placement was delayed byseveral months as no spe-cialist vessels were avail-able. Other major com-ponent failures include ro-tor cable faults, circuitbreaker issues etc

Scroby Sands—UK 2 3 83.8% Technical Availability onlysuffered during Novemberdue to a high number ofwaiting on weather dayswhich delayed returningturbines to service follow-ing the generator replace-ment work

a The data presented in this table are provided from the International Renewable Energy Agency: IRENA.

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