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ROAD TO WAR
WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00
WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTMULTIPLE THEATERS/HIGH OPTEMPO
VW 16CENTCOM
MRCUSFKFall 2000
CINC USPACOM
JTFPACIFICA
EMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICAEMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICA
LRC EUCOM
CUBAN REFUGEESSOUTHCOM/ACOM
• Emergence of assertive regional powers with clashing agendas
• Long standing ethnic and national divisions within region
• Regional competition for control of natural resources
• US strategic options influenced by– World wide military requirements– Domestic political and economic
considerations– Long term regional objectives
THEATER ENVIRONMENT
Guam
Okinawa
Theater Situationc. 2000
Pacifica
Chosun
Eastland
SURRAN
East Isle
CHOSUN MRC Crisis - #1 regional priority - FDO 1&2 deployed - War likely fall 2000
PACIFICA Crisis - UN Peace Keeping Operation fails - SURRAN introduction of forces
East Sulu Sea Oil Fields - Huge new deposits - Ownership contested
Japan
Guam
Okinawa
THREATS: EASTLAND SURRAN PPF
Pacifica
Chosun
Eastland
Surran
East Isle
PPF
Japan
EASTLAND STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
• Establish regional leadership and role as world power.
• Reduce US influence in western Pacific region.• Continue economic expansion; avoid direct
confrontation with western market nations.• Assure access to and control of East Sulu Sea oil
fields through friendly surrogate nations.• Support defeat of PACIFICA and supporting
coalition forces.• Installation of a friendly, rebel government in
PACIFICA with basing rights for EASTLAND forces.
SURRAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
• Consolidate PACIFICA islands into “Greater Ethnic SURRAN”
• Assure access and control of Sulu Sea oil fields• Continue economic expansion; exploit PACIFICA
markets• Establish itself as a leading regional power
SURRANIAN MILITARY OBJECTIVES
• Defeat Pacifican and supporting coalition forces • Control of the Sulu Sea Island oil fields and
supporting LOCs• Neutralization of US influence in the region
PPF CONTROLLED AREAS
CONTESTED AREAS
PPF: A coalition of insurgentsand breakaway Army units united in their opposition to the existing government. Rebel army units located on LUZON; insurgents throughout the islands.
SPM: Surranian Peoples Movement
PRA: Pacifican Rebel ArmyPacifica
PPF = SPM + PRAPPF = SPM + PRA
SPMSPM
SPMSPM
PRAPRA
PRAPRA
PACIFICAN PEOPLES FRONT PACIFICAN PEOPLES FRONT (PPF)(PPF)
Pacifica
1946
• US grants PACIFICA independence.
–PACIFICA & US sign defense pact.
• SURRAN begins war of national liberation to gain independence.
1955
• PACIFICA becomes charter member of South East Asia Treaty Organization.
• SURRAN gains independence.
–Denounces SEATO.
–Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND.
1965
• Surranian ethnic minority within PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern islands to gain independence from Luzon based PACIFICA government. Adopts name Surranian Peoples Movement (SPM).
1946
• US grants PACIFICA independence.
–PACIFICA & US sign defense pact.
• SURRAN begins war of national liberation to gain independence.
1955
• PACIFICA becomes charter member of South East Asia Treaty Organization.
• SURRAN gains independence.
–Denounces SEATO.
–Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND.
1965
• Surranian ethnic minority within PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern islands to gain independence from Luzon based PACIFICA government. Adopts name Surranian Peoples Movement (SPM).
Road To WarRoad To War
1965
1965
1965
SPM
Pacifica
1966
• PACIFICA President Luna declares martial law and seizes power.
–US initiates military aid to PACIFICA.
–SURRAN declares support for PACIFICA. Surranian separatist movement.
• SURRAN discovers oil and begins military and economic build up.
1986
• President Luna overthrown by “People’s Revolution”, tired of war and declining economy. Military backs the people during showdown.
• SPM continued low level insurgency in south. Terrorism spread to northern islands to include Luzon.
–SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia for Asians” theme.
1966
• PACIFICA President Luna declares martial law and seizes power.
–US initiates military aid to PACIFICA.
–SURRAN declares support for PACIFICA. Surranian separatist movement.
• SURRAN discovers oil and begins military and economic build up.
1986
• President Luna overthrown by “People’s Revolution”, tired of war and declining economy. Military backs the people during showdown.
• SPM continued low level insurgency in south. Terrorism spread to northern islands to include Luzon.
–SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia for Asians” theme.
Road To WarRoad To War
1986
1986
1986
SPM
1986
Pacifica
1987
• Failed negotiations result in US withdrawal from PACIFICA bases.
1988
• PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled by loyal troops and threat of US intervention. US cuts off military aid.
• Growing support for “Asia for Asian” movement among young military officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN officers begin organizing.
• SPM continued success in south. Insurgency spread to northern islands to include Luzon.
• SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia for Asians” theme.
1992• Oil and substantial mineral deposits
discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea.
1987
• Failed negotiations result in US withdrawal from PACIFICA bases.
1988
• PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled by loyal troops and threat of US intervention. US cuts off military aid.
• Growing support for “Asia for Asian” movement among young military officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN officers begin organizing.
• SPM continued success in south. Insurgency spread to northern islands to include Luzon.
• SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia for Asians” theme.
1992• Oil and substantial mineral deposits
discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea.
Road To WarRoad To War
1988
Oil discoveredEast Sulu Sea
1992
Attempted Coup
1988
1988 SPM
SPM
I I
1987
SPM
Pacifica
1990s
• PACIFICA economy in doldrums.
• Counterinsurgency against SPM failing.
AUG 1998
• 2nd PACIFICA military coup attempt fails; civil war erupts on Luzon.
• SURRAN provides covert military aid and advisors to rebels and SPM insurgents.
–Surranians declare support of army rebels and, “their just fight for freedom”.
–SPM exploit situation to consolidate success in south.
APR-JUL 1999
• PACIFICA military stretched thin. US resumes military aid to salvage situation.
• USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA.
1990s
• PACIFICA economy in doldrums.
• Counterinsurgency against SPM failing.
AUG 1998
• 2nd PACIFICA military coup attempt fails; civil war erupts on Luzon.
• SURRAN provides covert military aid and advisors to rebels and SPM insurgents.
–Surranians declare support of army rebels and, “their just fight for freedom”.
–SPM exploit situation to consolidate success in south.
APR-JUL 1999
• PACIFICA military stretched thin. US resumes military aid to salvage situation.
• USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA.
Road To WarRoad To War
1998 2nd Coup/Civil War
I I
USMAGPAC
USMAGPACHQ 1ST SFG (FWD)CO A (+), 2nd Bn
USMAGPACHQ 1ST SFG (FWD)CO A (+), 2nd Bn
SPMSPM
SPMSPM
SPMSPM
MAR-APR 2000
• SPM and rebel army units form PPF, under Surranian pressure.
• PPF announces formation of independent Republic of Tuguegardo.
MAY 2000
• PACIFICA government counter- attack inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and stabilizes the situation.
• USMAGPAC expand to support PACIFICA army units supporting operations on Mindinao.
MAR-APR 2000
• SPM and rebel army units form PPF, under Surranian pressure.
• PPF announces formation of independent Republic of Tuguegardo.
MAY 2000
• PACIFICA government counter- attack inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and stabilizes the situation.
• USMAGPAC expand to support PACIFICA army units supporting operations on Mindinao.
Road To WarRoad To War
Pacifica
PPF
Tuguegardo
MAY X
USMAGPAC
USMAGPAC
I I
SF
USMAGPACHQ 1ST SFG (FWD)2BN 1ST SF
USMAGPACHQ 1ST SFG (FWD)2BN 1ST SF
PPF
X
III
Situation1 JUN 2000approximate locationsof Rebel ( ) andLoyalist ( ) forcesand SPM ( ) forcesin Northern Luzon
Tuguegardo
Manila
III
XX
XX
X
X
X
XX
(-)
X
XX
X
XX
X
XXXPRA
XX
PRA (-)
XX
PRA (-)
I I
I I
JUN- JUL 2000
• UN brokered cease fire agreement
–UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping Operations.
• PPF refits and rearms.
• Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa; SPM seize Palawan.
• Challenges/local terrorist attacks on UN forces increase.
• UN sponsored humanitarian operations disrupted by PPF.
JUN- JUL 2000
• UN brokered cease fire agreement
–UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping Operations.
• PPF refits and rearms.
• Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa; SPM seize Palawan.
• Challenges/local terrorist attacks on UN forces increase.
• UN sponsored humanitarian operations disrupted by PPF.
Road To WarRoad To War
Pacifica
ZOSZOS
PPF
2000
SPM
PPF
III
XX
Situation1 JUL 2000 UNFORPACapproximate locationsof Rebel ( )Loyalist ( )UNFORPAC ( )SPM ( )in Northern Luzon
Tuguegardo
Manila
X
XX
XX
ZOSZOS
XX
X
X
X
MEFMEF
X
X
X
XXXPRA
X
XX
PRA (-)
XX
PRA (-)
ZOS
ZOS
Pacifica
Surran
JUL 2000
• PPF refits and rearms.
• PPF prepares to resume offensive across “ZOS”.
• SURRAN preparations detected; US NCA directs planning and preparation to support PACIFICA.
JUL-OCT 2000
• SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on Luzon.
• UNSCR calls for international support for PACIFICA.
• UN forces prepare to withdraw from PACIFICA
• US NCA orders deployment of JTF PACIFICA.
• UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS; detachments held “hostage” by PPF
JUL 2000
• PPF refits and rearms.
• PPF prepares to resume offensive across “ZOS”.
• SURRAN preparations detected; US NCA directs planning and preparation to support PACIFICA.
JUL-OCT 2000
• SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on Luzon.
• UNSCR calls for international support for PACIFICA.
• UN forces prepare to withdraw from PACIFICA
• US NCA orders deployment of JTF PACIFICA.
• UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS; detachments held “hostage” by PPF
SURRANIANINTERVENTION
SURRANIAN ACTIONS
• SURRAN conducted landings at the “Invitation of the PPF” to help defend TUGUEGARDO and Surranian ethnic rights in the region.
• Pronounced their mission as defensive and peaceful. Pledged not to attack the Pacifican government if not attacked. Intent is clearly to engage and defeat Pacifican forces.
• Reaction to International opposition– Positions ground forces along northern UN ZOS– Initiates sniper attacks on UN patrols; takes UN hostages– Assumes an offensive posture while landing additional
forces and supplies– Continues its support to PPF preparations for a renewed
offensive
Pacifica CrisisPacifica Crisis““The U.S. Responds”The U.S. Responds”
KEY EVENT TIME LINE
EVENT CRITICAL ACTIONDATE
SURRAN prep detected NSC issues NSDD. 1 JUL 00
UN SC Resolution 763: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal within 10 days.
22 AUG 00
SURRAN does not withdraw
UN SC Resolution 794: 45 days to withdraw or be compelled to do so. Air and Maritime exclusion zone imposed in 35 days.
JCS EXORD/C-Day.
1 SEP 00
SURRAN does not withdraw
JTF FRAGO #1 issued. I Corps moves out ofassembly areas to establish defensivepositions.
16 OCT 00
JCS Warning Order. 3 JUL 00
SURRAN landing UN SC Resolution 761: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal.
5 JUL 00
Maritime/Air Exclusion Zone Imposed. 6 OCT 00
UN forces begin pulling back from ZOS andprepare to redeploy from PACIFICA.
8 OCT 00SURRAN harasses UN forces
PacificaExclusion Zone
JTF PACIFICA JOA
Surran
OCTOBER 2000OCTOBER 2000JTF PACIFICA JTF PACIFICA ESTABLISHEDESTABLISHED
OCTOBER 2000OCTOBER 2000JTF PACIFICA JTF PACIFICA ESTABLISHEDESTABLISHED
THEATER STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
• Restore territorial integrity of PACIFICA (Luzon)• Protection of East Sulu Sea oil and minerals to
insure free and equitable access to benefits• Prevent expansion of the war beyond theater of
operations• Minimize probability of renewed SURRAN
offensive action• Assist reestablishment of legitimate and viable
government of PACIFICA• Protect lives and property of US citizens
REBEL ARMY SURRAN SPM
Tuguegaro
Manila
X
I I
I I
SR
XXXX
10 (SR)
XXXX
8 (SR)
PRA
XX
(-)
XX
PRA (-)
XXX
39 (SR)
I I
XX
PRA (-)
ZOS
ZOS
ZOS
ZOS
Situation16 OCT 2000
