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Road to RobotsSensors and Computing for Autonomous

Vehicle

Guillaume GIRARDINDivision Director

Photonics, Sensing and Display

Yole Developpement

Yohann TSCHUDILead Analyst

Software and Computing

Yole Developpement

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Robotic

car

players

0 2 3 541ADAS Levels

20172010 2025 2035

Traditional ADAS

car makers

While traditional car makers are

integrating autonomous

functions in consumer cars little

by little, new-comers have

challenged this approach by

short-cutting technological

developments and proposing a

new business model:

transportation as a service, TaaS.

This move has triggered new

investments in sensor

technologies.

Fully

autonomous

vehicles in

2017

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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES - THE DISRUPTION CASE

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

AD

AS

vehic

le s

ales

(Munits)

Robotic and Light vehicle sales breakdown forecast by level of autonomy

ADAS Level 0 ADAS Level 1 ADAS Level 2 ADAS Level 3 ADAS Level 4 ADAS Level 5 Robotic cars

02 3

541

By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities!

Now

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2017 AUTOMOTIVE LANDSCAPE - MAJOR PLAYERS’ REVENUE

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SENSORS IN AUTOMOTIVE - THREE MAIN SENSOR CATEGORIES

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AUTOMATION LEVELS - ROADMAP

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SENSOR MODULE ASP FOR EACH AUTOMATION LEVEL – ONLY SENSORS!

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FREQUENCY REGULATION

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AUTOMOTIVE LIDAR PLAYERS

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BIG PICTURE OF LIDAR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES TIMELINE

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SENSORS FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY – ECOSYSTEM VALUE

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ROBOTIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY

Main player sensor suite

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ROBOTIC VEHICLE MARKET TREND

Emergence of the robotic vehicle market

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Year Production Vehicle cost

per unit

On the road Revenue @

$0.43/mile

Revenue @

$0.86/mile

Vehicle capital

on the road

2017 8k units $200k 10k units $1B $2B $2B

2022 65k units $150k 150k units $15B $30B $22B

2027 350k units $110k 1M units $100B $200B $110B

2032 1,200k units $95k 5M units $500B $1T $475B

Average speed

40km/h

30mph

Distance covered

~900km/day

~700miles/day

Distance covered

~300,000km/year

~230,000miles/year

Revenue

€100,000/year

$100,000/year

@ €0.33/km

@ $0.43/mile23h per day10% down time

330 days /yearEuropean city

American city

Assumptions

Expected use case takes into account ~$0.43 to $0.86 per mile

ROBOTIC VEHICLE ECONOMICS

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ROBOTIC VEHICLE SENSING TECHNOLOGY TREND

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ROBOTIC VEHICLE SENSOR REVENUE FORECAST

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AUTOMOTIVE ADAS SUPPLY CHAINS

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AUTOMOTIVE ADAS VISION PROCESSING

Vision processing for automotive will triple revenues before 2021

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COMPUTING FOR ROBOTIC VEHICLES ECOSYSTEM

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WHAT IS FUSION ? • Sensor fusion uses sophisticatedartificial intelligence (AI) and deeplearning-based algorithms;

• Complex use-case scenarios expectedof driverless cars can be understood.

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WHICH SET OF SENSORS FOR AUTONOMY?

• Cameras, Radars, LiDAR & Ultrasonic sensors• Combination of 2 or more type of sensors are

needed to reach autonomy

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WHICH HARDWARE SOLUTION TO CHOOSE?

Example of Audi’s solution

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• Convoluted Neural Networks (CNN) approach is king. Mobileye along with its foundry partnerSTMicroelectronics has proved the superiority of CNN to bring real time image analysis on the road.All players are therefore investing in such approaches. New alliance between Mobileye and Intel showsthe appetite for automotive vision processing.

• GPU power is well used by infotainment system and data handling. The involvement of NVIDIA issignificant in this domain. Following the Mobileye Tesla divorce, NVIDIA will provide an integratedapproach with home brewed CNN inference processors.

• Multicore CPU based DSPs are still heavily used and are bringing all computing aspects. Intel,Renesas, Toshiba, TI, ST and NXP are among the numerous players in this field. The merge of NXPwith Qualcomm would create a heavyweight in this domain.

• FPGA are very well suited to the high end segment and implementation of emerging features. Thisflexible platform should have access to the emerging autonomous vehicle market. Xilinx leads thisdomain by far.

• The Manycore approach such as the one by Kalray emerges as a great proposition for addressing theautonomous vehicle trend.

WHICH HARDWARE SOLUTION TO CHOOSE?

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ROBOTIC VEHICLE COMPUTING SUITE

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MARKET MAP – AI FOR AUTONOMOUS AUTOMOTIVE

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FROM SENSORS TO FUSION

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www.i-micronews.com girardin@yole.fr

tschudi@yole.fr

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FIELDS OF EXPERTISE COVERED BY OUR 40+ ANALYSTS WITHIN 4 DIVISIONS

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3 BUSINESS MODELS

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6 COMPANIES TO SERVE YOUR BUSINESS

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OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY

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SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN

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REPORTS COLLECTION

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