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RIVER MURRAY WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, 6 JUNE 2018 Trim Ref: D18/29264

Rainfall and inflows

Conditions remained dry this week with only modest rainfall recorded over the south-eastern fringe of the Murray-Darling Basin (Map 1). The highest rainfall totals included 8 mm at Khancoban on the NSW south-west slopes and 16 mm at Rocky Valley in Victoria’s north-east. In the lower Murray valley in South Australia, 10 mm was recorded at Murray Bridge and 8 mm at Goolwa.

Map 1 - Murray-Darling Basin rainfall map week ending 6 June 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology).

Light rainfall between 31 May and 4 June slowed the rate of recession for Upper Murray stream flows. Flow in the upper Mitta-Mitta at Hinnomunjie Bridge receded from 190 ML/day to the current flow of 165 ML/day. On the upper Murray, the flow at Biggara receded from 330 ML/day to the current flow of around 320 ML/day. Downstream of Hume Dam, inflows from the Kiewa River, measured at Bandiana, increased from around 480 ML/day to the current flow of 1,020 ML/day in response to releases from Rocky Valley Dam. Inflows from the Ovens River, measured at Wangaratta, receded from 460 ML/day to the current flow of 420 ML/day.

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May 2018 Summary

Rainfall during May was close to average for the majority of the southern Murray-Darling Basin, with only a few scattered patches of below average rainfall (Map 2). In the northern Murray-Darling Basin rainfall was below average or very much below average, with pockets of northern NSW and central Queensland receiving lowest on record rainfall for May. Many of these areas received no rain at all for the month. Overall, the Bureau of Meteorology reports that May was the 14th driest May in 119 years of records, and area-averaged rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin was only 13.7 mm for May.

Map 2 - Murray Darling Basin rainfall deciles for May 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology).

Below to very much below average Basin rainfall was also a notable feature across the three months of autumn (Map 3). The Bureau of Meteorology reported that area-averaged rain for autumn 2018 totalled 47.4 mm across the Basin as a whole, ranking it the eight-lowest autumn rainfall year out of 119 years of records.

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Map 3 - Murray-Darling Basin rainfall across autumn 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)

The dry autumn was also coincident with exceptionally warm conditions across the region and for much of Australia. In fact the Bureau has reported that for NSW (and for much of the central Basin), average daily maximum temperatures during autumn were the highest ever recorded (Map 4), with the previous record set only 2 years ago. For Australia as a whole, 2018 was the fourth-warmest autumn on record.

Temperatures were particularly high during April with the Bureau reporting the month was characterised by persistent summer-like heat in the first half of the month and that many temperature records were broken. More information is available in the BoM’s Special Climate Statement 65 – persistent summer-like heat sets many April records.

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Map 3 - Maximum temperature deciles for Australia in autumn 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)

River Murray system inflows during May (excluding Snowy Scheme, Darling River and managed environmental flows) totalled around 115 GL, which is below the month’s long-term median of 275 GL. In comparison with the historical record since 1891, inflows observed for May 2018 were within the driest 8% of previous monthly totals observed for May.

Estimated evaporative losses from the MDBA storages for the month of May 2018 are reported in Table 1. The volume of evaporative loss is estimated by multiplying the surface area of the storage by the net evaporation depth. The net evaporation depth is derived by subtracting the rainfall recorded at the storage from the evaporation depth, with the evaporation depth determined using Class A pan factors and measured pan evaporation. Rainfall during May resulted in a small net gain (negative evaporative loss) at Dartmouth reservoir.

Table 1: Monthly evaporation figures for MDBA storages

Storage Net evaporation

depth in May 2018

(mm)

*Approximate (net)

evaporative loss in

May 2018 (GL)

Average storage

volume in May

2018 (GL)

Percentage net

evaporative loss in

May 2018 (%)

Dartmouth -49.6 -3.0 3416 -0.1

Hume 10.3 1.2 994 0.1

Lake Victoria 37.0 3.5 242 1.4

Menindee Lakes 70.9 12.2 223 5.5

*Evaporative loss from storage = surface area of the storage x net evaporation depth. Net evaporation depth = measured

evaporation depth (using a ‘pan’ instrument) minus rainfall. For this table, a positive value indicates a loss of water, a negative value indicates a gain in water.

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2017-18 Water Year Summary

The beginning of June marks the transition to a new ‘water year’ for the River Murray system. This timing reflects that the commencement of the winter-spring period is typically when tributary inflows increase and headwater storages begin to be replenished. The water year is used by the MDBA to manage and report on system inflows, demands and storage levels across a 12 month period in a way that best matches the systems hydrological and demand cycle.

Rainfall

Rainfall for 2017-18 was below average to very much below average across the Basin, with isolated patches of lowest on record rainfall (Map 5). 2017-18 was significantly drier than 2016-17 (which was the wettest year basin-wide since 2011-12 and was characterised by significant flooding in the southern Basin). Rainfall for winter and spring was below average for much of the southern basin and central NSW; whereas in summer and spring, below average to very much below average rainfall dominated in the northern Basin, western Victoria and South Australia (Map 6).

Map 5 - Murray-Darling Basin rainfall deciles from 1 June 2017 – 31 May 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)

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Map 6 and 7 - Murray-Darling Basin rainfall deciles for 1 June 2017 – 30 November 2017 (left) and 1 December 2017 – 31 May

2018 (right) (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)

Temperature

Mean temperatures across the Basin were very much above average for the 2017-18 water year, with parts of northern NSW and central Queensland reaching highest on record temperature deciles (Map 8).

Map 8 - Temperature deciles for Australia from 1 June 2017 – 31 May 2018 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)

Inflows

River Murray System inflows during 2017-18 water year were about 4,100 GL – just over half the long-term median of around 7,900 GL. This places 2017-18 within the driest 13% of years during the 127

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years of historic observation. By comparison, 2016-17 was in the wettest 14% of years and inflows totalled around 14,800 GL.

There was effectively no inflow to Menindee Lakes during 2017-18, contrasting strongly with 2016-17 when inflows totalled 1,800 GL. Long-term annual median inflow to the Menindee Lakes is 865 GL

Active storage

MDBA active storage started the 2017-18 water year at 5,370 GL (excluding Menindee Lakes total active storage), or about 350 GL above the long-term average for the start of June (Figure 1). Active storage peaked around 6,650 GL in early October, and again at approximately 6,420 GL in December following high rainfall in the upper Murray catchments at the start of that month. Total active storage then declined steadily across the remainder of summer and autumn, reducing to 4,540 GL at the beginning of May. By the end of May 2018, total active storage was increasing again, reaching 4,800 GL. This volume remains below the long-term average for this time of year.

Figure 1 – MDBA active storage, June 2000 to present.

In 2016-17, significant inflows refilled Menindee storage to reach almost full supply volume in mid-December 2016. On 1 June 2017, water in storage at Menindee had reduced to 780 GL. MDBA directed releases to supply demands in the lower Darling and the River Murray System ceased during the 2017-18 water year when total storage declined to 480 GL in mid-December 2017. Since then, significant evaporation and on-going small releases by WaterNSW to meet local requirements have continued to decrease active storage to a volume of 215 GL by the end of May 2018.

Early Outlook for 2017-18

The Bureau of Meteorology is currently indicating a higher likelihood of drier than normal conditions over winter, and is forecasting that seasonal streamflow up to July is more likely to be lower than normal along upper Murray tributaries. However, Australia’s most significant climate drivers for rainfall and temperature patterns, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, remain neutral, and climate models suggest these conditions are likely to remain neutral during winter. The Bureau has advised that this combination of factors would likely reduce the predictive skill of seasonal outlooks compared to other years.

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Compared to this time last year, Dartmouth Reservoir is storing slightly more water, while Hume is storing about 700 GL less water. This increased imbalance in stored water between the two reservoirs means there is a higher likelihood that transfers between Dartmouth and Hume storages will be required in the coming months. The higher level in Dartmouth also means a greater likelihood of the dam filling during the coming winter-spring period. Current projections indicate that if inflows are around the long-term average or wetter during this period, the Dartmouth storage level would increase towards effective full supply (99% capacity) and releases for airspace management may be required. In Hume Reservoir, there is currently a considerable volume of airspace (around 1,900 GL) available within in the reservoir. Nonetheless, at this stage, based on historically observed inflows, there remains a reasonably high likelihood that the storage will fill if wetter conditions return over the coming months.

With the volume in Menindee Lakes below 480 GL, water stored in the lakes is currently not available

to the MDBA for release to help meet River Murray system demands into the coming 2018-19 water

year. When the lakes volume decreases below 480 GL, WaterNSW manages Menindee Lakes’ releases

and priority is generally given to the protection of water resource for local requirements. The MDBA

cannot call on releases to meet Murray System demands until the Menindee’s total storage volume rises

above 640 GL.

With less resource in storage entering the 2018-19 water year, state’s opening allocations are expected

to be less than 2017-18, although South Australia have announced that its River Murray water access

entitlement holders will receive 100% of their allocation. For information regarding allocation

announcements for the other southern Basin states, see state resource manager information available

on the Victoria and NSW lower Darling, Murray and Murrumbidgee websites.

River operations

MDBA active storage increased by 45 GL this week to 4,650 GL (55% capacity).

The storage volume at Dartmouth Reservoir decreased by 7 GL to 3,407 GL (88% capacity). The release, measured at the Colemans gauge, is currently targeting 400 ML/day. A flow pulse on the Mitta Mitta River peaked briefly around 3,500 ML/day at Colemans Gauge on Saturday 2 June. Flows are currently 530 ML/day and are expected to return to minimum flows of 400 ML/day in the coming days. The pulse benefitted water quality in the Mitta Mitta River downstream of Dartmouth Dam.

In the coming week AGL is planning to undertake an entitlement release for electricity generation. This is expected to result in a peak flow at Colemans gauge of around 3,000 ML/day.

At Hume Reservoir, the storage volume increased by 28 GL to 1,118 GL (37% capacity). The release from Hume is currently targeting 3,500 ML/day. The release is forecast to reduce below 3,000 ML/day over coming days.

1 June 2018 marks the start of 2018-19 water year

MDBA active storage increasing

Lake Mulwala being lowered to help manage invasive aquatic weed Egeria densa

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Photo 1 – ‘Lake’ Mulwala’s lake floor exposed at the full extent of the drawdown (Photo courtesy of Will Lucardie, MDBA)

Downstream at Lake Mulwala (Photo 1), the lake level is currently targeting 120.2 m AHD (4.5 metres below the normal operating level of 124.7 m AHD). Lowering of the lake level has reached its target level and will continue to vary around 120.2 m AHD until mid-July to manage the invasive water weed Egeria densa. Lowering the water level and subjecting the exposed weed to drying and frost has proven to be an effective method for controlling its abundance within the weir pool. The draw down also provides an opportunity to undertake works on the lake foreshore.

The release from Yarrawonga Weir averaged around 4,800 ML/day this week and the current release is 4,300 ML/day. The release is forecast to decrease to around 4,000 ML/day over the coming week. Downstream of Yarrawonga Weir a flow at Tocumwal is expected to reduce from the current 5,300 ML/day to 4,000 ML/day in the coming week (Photo 2).

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Photo 2 – River Murray looking downstream from Tocumwal boat ramp (Photo courtesy of Paul Childs, NSW OEH)

Flow rates through the Edward and Gulpa Creek offtakes continue to vary as required to maintain river levels below 2.6 m at Picnic Point. Flows are currently 1,090 ML/day and 200 ML/day (respectively). In the coming weeks, the offtake gates are expected to be raised clear of the water. Without regulation, the inflows to the Edward-Wakool system can be expected to fluctuate over winter in response to changes in river level downstream of Yarrawonga Weir.

With water delivery finished for the season, WaterNSW has drawn down Stevens Weir pool to allow maintenance works on the weir and at the off-take regulators. Stevens Weir gates were removed in the past week allowing flows to move naturally past the structure, where flow averaged 1,490 ML/day for the week.

Inter Valley Transfers (IVT) delivered from the Goulburn River to the Murray will end in the coming week as Murray system demands ease. The flow, measured at McCoys Bridge, decreased from around 1,630 ML/day to the current flow of 1,290 ML/day. The flow at McCoys is forecast to continue receding to 940 ML/day over the coming week. Information regarding current opportunities for allocation trade between the Goulburn and Murray valleys is available at the Victorian water register website.

Environmental water holders are planning to deliver a flow pulse at Goulburn Weir commencing 20 June. The pulse will gradually rise to approximately 9,500 ML/day towards the end of June before slowly receding back to baseflow. Flow at McCoys Bridge is expected to peak around 2 July. The winter fresh aims to improve water quality and improve environmental outcomes for aquatic biota and vegetation. For more information visit the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority (CMA) website.

At Torrumbarry Weir, the pool level has lowered to 85.75 m AHD (30 cm below full supply level (FSL). The weir pool will fluctuate around this level over coming weeks and will be raised back to FSL before the start of the irrigation season. This action is aimed at helping to improve river bank stability and environmental outcomes within the influence of the weir pool. More information is available at the MDBA website. The downstream release from Torrumbarry Weir reduced from 5,800 ML/day this week to the current flow of 5,190 ML/day. Flow will continue to decline over the coming week.

Diversion into National Channel is currently around 400 ML/day providing water to Gunbower Creek, on behalf of environmental water holders, to maintain winter base flows for the benefit of native fish.

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National Channel diversions are expected to increase to 800 ML/day in the coming week to facilitate delivery of environmental water into the Gunbower forest on behalf of the North Central CMA (NCCMA). More information on the Gunbower forest watering can be found on the NCCMA website.

Inflow from the Murrumbidgee River, measured at Balranald, averaged 360 ML/day and is expected to remain steady over the coming week.

At Euston, the weir pool is being varied between 30 and 40 cm below FSL. The pool level is currently 30 cm below FSL and is expected to remain close to this level over the long weekend. Lowing Euston weir is part of the weir pool variability program which aims to help restore a more natural wetting and drying regime for river banks and wetlands. The downstream release averaged 8,350 ML/day and is currently around 7,540 ML/day. The release is forecast to rise to around 8,000 ML/day early in the week before gradually receding.

This week Menindee Lakes storage volume decreased by 3 GL to 214 GL (12% capacity). WaterNSW continues to manage the Menindee Lakes in accordance with the Lower Darling Annual Operations Plan. The release from Weir 32 is targeting minimum flow rates of around 160 ML/day with the aim to maintain flow in the lower Darling at Burtundy, where the flow is currently around 60 ML/day. A red alert warning (high alert) for blue-green algae continues for Lake Tandure and the lower Darling River between Pooncarie and Burtundy.

On the Murray at Wentworth Weir the release is currently 8,010 ML/day and is expected to steadily reduce over the coming week.

The Locks 7 and 9 weir pools continue to target a water level 10 cm below FSL and will vary between FSL and 10 cm below FSL over the coming weeks. The Lock 8 weir pool is targeting 30 cm below FSL.

At Lake Victoria, the storage volume increased by 24 GL to 319 GL (47% capacity). The storage is expected to continue to increase over the coming weeks, supplemented by water released from the drawdown of Lake Mulwala.

The flow to South Australia averaged 4,000 ML/day this week and is expected to remain around this rate for the coming week. This flow includes environmental water being delivered to the Lower Lakes. Downstream at Lock 6, the pool reached its target lowering of 20 cm below FSL this week, but may be increased slightly in the coming days to help ensure irrigator pump access within the upper reaches of the weir pool. At Locks 5 and 2, weir pool lowering trials are being considered for the coming winter, depending on river conditions. More information is available in South Australia’s River Murray flow report. From mid-June, Lock 3 will be temporarily closed for a major refurbishment. During this time the lock will be gradually drained over a two week period. The lock refurbishment is expected take up to 14 weeks to complete.

At the Lower Lakes, the 5-day average water level increased to 0.57 m AHD. Releases from the barrages averaged 400 ML/day and were prioritised through Tauwitchere and Goolwa barrages.

For media inquiries contact the Media Officer on 02 6279 0141

ANDREW REYNOLDS

Executive Director, River Management

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Water in Storage Week ending Wednesday 06 Jun 2018

MDBA Storages Full

Supply Level

Full Supply Volume

Current Storage

Level Current Storage

Dead Storage

Active Storage

Change in Total

Storage for the Week

(m AHD) (GL) (m AHD) (GL) % (GL) (GL) (GL)

Dartmouth Reservoir 486.00 3 856 478.90 3 407 88% 71 3 336 -7

Hume Reservoir 192.00 3 005 179.88 1 118 37% 23 1 095 +28

Lake Victoria 27.00 677 23.75 319 47% 100 219 +24

Menindee Lakes 1 731* 214 12% (- -) # 0 -3

Total 9 269 5 058 55% - - 4 650 +42

Total Active MDBA Storage 55% ^

Major State Storages

Burrinjuck Reservoir 1 026 410 40% 3 407 +1

Blowering Reservoir 1 631 941 58% 24 917 +94

Eildon Reservoir 3 334 1 830 55% 100 1 730 +2

* Menindee surcharge capacity – 2050 GL ** All Data is rounded to nearest GL ** # NSW has sole access to water when the storage falls below 480 GL. MDBA regains access to water when the storage next reaches 640 GL. ^ % of total active MDBA storage

Snowy Mountains Scheme Snowy diversions for week ending 05 Jun 2018

Storage Active Storage

(GL) Weekly Change

(GL) Diversion (GL) This Week

From 1 May 2018

Lake Eucumbene - Total 1 029 n/a Snowy-Murray +28 168

Snowy-Murray Component 457 n/a Tooma-Tumut +9 18

Target Storage 1 240 Net Diversion 19 150

Murray 1 Release +37 188

Major Diversions from Murray and Lower Darling (GL) *

New South Wales This Week From 1 July

2017 Victoria This Week

From 1 July 2017

Murray Irrig. Ltd (Net) 0.0 963 Yarrawonga Main Channel (net) 0 297

Wakool Sys Allowance -0.5 76 Torrumbarry System + Nyah (net) 0.1 480

Western Murray Irrigation 0.1 25 Sunraysia Pumped Districts 0.5 115

Licensed Pumps 2.3 254 Licensed pumps - GMW (Nyah+u/s) 1 51

Lower Darling 0.2 91 Licensed pumps - LMW 4.6 378

TOTAL 2.1 1409 TOTAL 6.2 1321

* Figures are derived from actual and estimates where data is unavailable. Please note that not all data may have been available at the time of creating this report. ** All data above is rounded to nearest 100 ML for weekly data and nearest GL for cumulative data**

Flow to South Australia (GL) * Flow to SA will be greater than normal entitlement for this month due to environmental flows.

Entitlement this month 90.0 *

Flow this week 27.9 (4 000 ML/day)

Flow so far this month 24.0 Flow last month 102.0

Salinity (EC) (microSiemens/cm at 25o C)

Current Average over the last week Average since 1 August 2017

Swan Hill 80 80 100

Euston - - -

Red Cliffs 100 110 160

Merbein - - 160

Burtundy (Darling) 720 720 680

Lock 9 120 110 170

Lake Victoria 200 180 240

Berri 360 370 280

Waikerie 380 390 330

Morgan 400 390 340

Mannum 380 380 370

Murray Bridge 410 410 400

Milang (Lake Alex.) 830 830 710

Poltalloch (Lake Alex.) 590 700 650

Meningie (Lake Alb.) 1 610 1 630 1 580

Goolwa Barrages 4 690 6 260 2 460

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River Levels and Flows Week ending Wednesday 06 Jun 2018

Minor Flood Stage

Gauge Height Flow Trend Average Flow

this Week

Average Flow last

Week

River Murray (m) local (m) (m AHD) (ML/day) (ML/day) (ML/day)

Khancoban - - - 5 920 F 4 980 5 950

Jingellic 4.0 1.91 208.43 6 180 R 5 720 6 630

Tallandoon ( Mitta Mitta River ) 4.2 1.71 218.60 1 260 F 1 670 910

Heywoods 5.5 1.94 155.57 3 500 S 2 520 910

Doctors Point 5.5 2.04 150.51 4 610 R 3 270 1 650

Albury 4.3 1.14 148.58 - - - -

Corowa 4.6 1.26 127.28 4 100 R 2 600 1 800

Yarrawonga Weir (d/s) 6.4 0.87 115.91 4 300 F 4 830 6 090

Tocumwal 6.4 1.55 105.39 5 360 S 5 400 6 730

Torrumbarry Weir (d/s) 7.3 1.90 80.45 5 190 F 5 510 6 380

Swan Hill 4.5 - - 5 840 F 5 940 6 440

Wakool Junction 8.8 3.01 52.13 7 710 F 8 010 8 160

Euston Weir (d/s) 9.1 1.50 43.34 7 540 F 8 350 8 310

Mildura Weir (d/s) - - 8 550 F 8 470 7 960

Wentworth Weir (d/s) 7.3 2.93 27.69 8 010 F 8 150 7 570

Rufus Junction - 2.98 19.91 3 530 F 3 600 3 200

Blanchetown (Lock 1 d/s) - 0.52 - 3 530 R 3 530 3 870

Tributaries

Kiewa at Bandiana 2.8 1.39 154.62 1 020 R 740 720

Ovens at Wangaratta 11.9 7.92 145.60 420 F 470 380

Goulburn at McCoys Bridge 9.0 1.69 93.11 1 290 F 1 520 1 060

Edward at Stevens Weir (d/s) 5.5 1.55 81.33 1 310 F 1 490 1 680

Edward at Liewah - 2.23 57.61 1 540 F 1 500 1 350

Wakool at Stoney Crossing - 1.43 54.92 460 F 530 680

Murrumbidgee at Balranald 5.0 0.80 56.76 410 R 360 310

Barwon at Mungindi 6.1 3.12 - 10 S 10 10

Darling at Bourke 9.0 4.13 - 500 S 630 690

Darling at Burtundy Rocks - 0.68 - 60 S 60 50

Natural Inflow to Hume 1 800 2 300

(i.e. Pre Dartmouth & Snowy Mountains scheme)

Weirs and Locks Pool levels above or below Full Supply Level (FSL)

Murray FSL (m AHD) u/s d/s FSL (m AHD) u/s d/s

Yarrawonga 124.90 -5.03 - No. 7 Rufus River 22.10 -0.06 +0.68

No. 26 Torrumbarry 86.05 -0.26 - No. 6 Murtho 19.25 -0.18 +0.05

No. 15 Euston 47.60 -0.32 - No. 5 Renmark 16.30 +0.05 +0.14

No. 11 Mildura 34.40 -0.02 +0.20 No. 4 Bookpurnong 13.20 +0.05 +0.49

No. 10 Wentworth 30.80 +0.00 +0.29 No. 3 Overland Corner 9.80 +0.03 +0.16

No. 9 Kulnine 27.40 -0.09 -0.30 No. 2 Waikerie 6.10 +0.01 +0.11

No. 8 Wangumma 24.60 -0.30 -0.01 No. 1 Blanchetown 3.20 +0.02 -0.23

Lower Lakes FSL = 0.75 m AHD

Lake Alexandrina average level for the past 5 days (m AHD) 0.57

Barrages Fishways at Barrages

Openings Level (m AHD) No. Open Rock Ramp

Vertical Slot 1 Vertical Slot 2

Dual Vertical Slots

Goolwa 128 openings 0.61 1 - Open Open -

Mundoo 26 openings 0.56 All closed - - - Open

Hunters Creek - - - - Open - -

Boundary Creek 6 openings - 1 - Open - -

Ewe Island 111 gates - All closed - - - Open

Tauwitchere 322 gates 0.61 1 Open Open Open -

AHD = Level relative to Australian Height Datum, i.e. height above sea level

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Week ending Wednesday 06 Jun 2018

State Allocations (as at 06 Jun 2018)

NSW - Murray Valley Victorian - Murray Valley

High security 97%

General security 51%

High reliability 100%

Low reliability 0%

NSW – Murrumbidgee Valley

Victorian - Goulburn Valley

High security 95%

General security 45%

High reliability 100%

Low reliability 0%

NSW - Lower Darling

South Australia – Murray Valley

High security 100%

General security 100%

High security 100%

NSW : http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-management/water-availability

VIC : http://nvrm.net.au/seasonal-determinations/current

SA : http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/managing-natural-resources/river-murray