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Risky Business: Does Corporate Political Giving Affect Consumer Behavior? Costas Panagopoulos 1 Donald P. Green 2 Jonathan Krasno 3 Michael Schwam-Baird 2 Eric Moore 3 Kyle Endres 1 1 Fordham University 2 Columbia University 3 Binghamton University October 26, 2016 Abstract: To what extent do consumers’ preferences change when they learn about firms’ partisan allegiances? We address this question by conducting a series of experiments in which American respondents were presented with factual information about corporate political donations. In Studies 1 and 2, this information was conveyed subtly via a trivia quiz in which just one question was randomly varied to convey political or non-political information. Respondents were told the correct answer to each question. Outcomes were measured through future shopping intentions as well as a revealed consumer preference: respondents were invited to participate in a raffle for a $10 gift card and asked which store’s gift card they would like to receive if they were to win the raffle. Respondents who identify with a political party were significantly more likely to select gift cards for chains whose PACs support their party and less likely to select gift cards for chains whose PACs support the opposing party. In Study 3, a field experiment randomly assigned mailings disclosing the partisan campaign contributions by two large chains. When recipients responded to a seemingly unrelated survey several days later, their future shopping intentions were significantly affected by whether the experimental information indicated that the chain’s political donations aided or opposed the respondent’s preferred party. The results show that party attachments express themselves in consumer choice when information enables voters to identify retailers’ partisan inclinations. We consider the policy implications of this finding in light of recent campaign finance rulings. Acknowledgements: Paper prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, September 1-4, 2016. The authors are grateful to Democracy Fund and the Open Society Foundation, which funded this project through Fordham University but bear no responsibility for the content of this report. We thank Winston Lin for his help and guidance regarding data analysis. This research was approved by institutional review boards at Binghamton University (#3611-15), Columbia University (#AAAP9508), and Fordham University (#265). Comments are welcome and may be directed to: [email protected], [email protected], or [email protected].

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RiskyBusiness:DoesCorporatePoliticalGivingAffectConsumerBehavior?

CostasPanagopoulos1

DonaldP.Green2

JonathanKrasno3

MichaelSchwam-Baird2

EricMoore3

KyleEndres1

1FordhamUniversity2ColumbiaUniversity 3BinghamtonUniversity

October26,2016Abstract:Towhatextentdoconsumers’preferenceschangewhentheylearnaboutfirms’partisanallegiances?WeaddressthisquestionbyconductingaseriesofexperimentsinwhichAmericanrespondentswerepresentedwithfactualinformationaboutcorporatepoliticaldonations.InStudies1and2,thisinformationwasconveyedsubtlyviaatriviaquizinwhichjustonequestionwasrandomlyvariedtoconveypoliticalornon-politicalinformation.Respondentsweretoldthecorrectanswertoeachquestion.Outcomesweremeasuredthroughfutureshoppingintentionsaswellasarevealedconsumerpreference:respondentswereinvitedtoparticipateinarafflefora$10giftcardandaskedwhichstore’sgiftcardtheywouldliketoreceiveiftheyweretowintheraffle.RespondentswhoidentifywithapoliticalpartyweresignificantlymorelikelytoselectgiftcardsforchainswhosePACssupporttheirpartyandlesslikelytoselectgiftcardsforchainswhosePACssupporttheopposingparty.InStudy3,afieldexperimentrandomlyassignedmailingsdisclosingthepartisancampaigncontributionsbytwolargechains.Whenrecipientsrespondedtoaseeminglyunrelatedsurveyseveraldayslater,theirfutureshoppingintentionsweresignificantlyaffectedbywhethertheexperimentalinformationindicatedthatthechain’spoliticaldonationsaidedoropposedtherespondent’spreferredparty.Theresultsshowthatpartyattachmentsexpressthemselvesinconsumerchoicewheninformationenablesvoterstoidentifyretailers’partisaninclinations.Weconsiderthepolicyimplicationsofthisfindinginlightofrecentcampaignfinancerulings.Acknowledgements:PaperpreparedforpresentationattheannualmeetingoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation,Philadelphia,September1-4,2016.TheauthorsaregratefultoDemocracyFundandtheOpenSocietyFoundation,whichfundedthisprojectthroughFordhamUniversitybutbearnoresponsibilityforthecontentofthisreport.WethankWinstonLinforhishelpandguidanceregardingdataanalysis.ThisresearchwasapprovedbyinstitutionalreviewboardsatBinghamtonUniversity(#3611-15),ColumbiaUniversity(#AAAP9508),andFordhamUniversity(#265).Commentsarewelcomeandmaybedirectedto:[email protected],[email protected],[email protected].

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Citizensinpublicopinionstudiesroutinelydecrytheinfluenceofspecial,and

especiallycorporate,interestsinpolitics(ShawandRagland2000;Panagopoulosand

Weinschenk2016).Reformersworrythatcorporatepoliticalspendingexertsacorrosive

effectonthepoliticalprocessandunderminespublictrust(Klumppetal.2015;Stateofthe

Union2010).TheseconcernshaveonlyintensifiedintheaftermathoftheU.S.Supreme

Court’slandmarkCitizensUnitedv.FederalElectionCommissionruling,whichopenedthe

doortounlimitedcorporatespendinginelections,providedthatitisindependentand

uncoordinatedwithcampaigns.

Corporatespendinghasfeaturedprominentlyinelectionsfordecades,eversince

thenewlyformedFederalElectionCommission(FEC)issuedanadvisoryopiniontothe

SunOilCompanyin1975thatapprovedtheformationofitscorporatePACandallowed

corporatetreasuriestofundoverheadandindirectcosts(RozellandWilcox1999).Once

theFECgavethebusinesscommunitythegreenlight,thenumberofcorporatePACsgrew

rapidly.By1984,thetotalnumberofPACstopped4,000(RozellandWilcox1999:77);as

ofJuly2015,atotalof5,891federalPACswereregistered,1,677ofwhichwerecorporate

PACs.Between1990and2014,politicalactioncommittees(PACs)contributedmorethan

$4billiontocandidatesrunningforofficeintheUnitedStates,accordingtotheCenterfor

ResponsivePolitics2015).CorporatePACspendingtypicallyaccountsforabout40percent

oftotalPACspendingduringanelectioncycle.Scholarsestimatethataboutone-thirdofall

U.S.Housecandidates’campaignreceiptsandone-fifthofallU.S.Senatecandidates’funds

comefromPACs(Ainsworth2002).Federalcampaignfinancelawslimithowmuch

corporatePACscanraisefromindividualsanddirecttospecificcandidates’campaigns,but

Citizenspermitsunlimitedindependentspendingbycorporations.

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Scholarshavearguedthatcorporatecampaigncontributionshelptosecure

favorableelectionoutcomesoraccesstothewinningcandidates’offices(Snyder1993).In

additiontolobbyingefforts,campaigncontributionscanhelpcorporationstoextract

specialfavorsfromlawmakers,includinggovernmentcontracts,regulatorywaivers,and

governmentsubsidies(GodwinandSeldon2002).Empiricalevidencelinkingcontributions

tolegislators’rollcallvotesismixed(Wawro2001;Stratmann1998,1991;Wright1990,

1985),butthereisreasontobelievethatcontributionsfacilitateaccesstoelectedofficials

(KallaandBroockman2015;Austen-Smith1995;Langbein1986).

Whilescholarshavelongstudiedcorporatecontributionstocandidatesandtheir

effectsonlegislativebehavior,theinfluenceofcorporateinvolvementinelectionson

votersandconsumershaslargelyescapedscholarlyattention.Manymodelsofcorporate

givinginelectionscharacterizetheirpoliticalbehaviorashighlystrategicbutoverlookthe

prospectofpublicorconsumerbacklash(e.g.,MastersandKeim1985).Forexample,itis

oftennotedthatcorporationsgenerallysupportincumbentsmoreoftenthanchallengersin

congressionalelections(Brunell2005;Milyoetal.2000)andgivedisproportionallyto

committeechairsandcandidatesofthepoliticalpartyinpowerinCongress(Rudolph

1999;RomerandSnyder1994;GrierandMunger1986).Inaddition,somecorporations

regularlyfavoroneparty’scandidatesforreasonsthatmayreflecttheideological

preferencesofcorporateleadersortheregulatoryenvironmentinwhichthecorporation

operates.Gimpel,Lee,andParrott(2014,p.1037)reportthat36%ofindustrysectors

donatedisproportionatelytoRepublicans,2%toDemocrats,andtherestdonatewith“no

discerniblepartisanpreference.”Whetherornotcorporatepartisansupporthasthe

potentialtoaffectconsumerbehaviorremainsanopenquestion.

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Weaddressthisquestionthroughapairofsurveyexperimentsandafieldexperiment

inwhichrandomlyassignedgroupsofrespondentsareexposedtofactualinformation

aboutwhichlargenationalchainsdonatedmoneytomajor-partycandidatesthroughtheir

PACs.InStudies1and2,thisinformationwasconveyedsubtlyviaatriviaquizinwhich

justonequestionwasrandomlyvariedtoconveyinformationaboutpoliticalcontributions.

Respondents,whosepartyattachmentsweremeasuredbyasurveyconductedaweek

earlier,weretoldthecorrectanswertoeachquestion.Respondentsprovedquite

knowledgeableaboutmostchainstoretriviabuttendedtoknowlittleaboutthesechains’

campaigncontributions.Outcomesweremeasuredthougharevealedconsumer

preference:inadditiontodescribingtheirfutureshoppingplans,respondentswereinvited

toparticipateinarafflefora$10giftcardandaskedwhichchainstore’sgiftcardthey

wouldliketoreceiveiftheyweretowintheraffle.Wefindstrongstatisticalevidencethat

respondentswhoidentifywithapartyaremorelikelytoselectgiftcardsforchainswhose

PACssupporttheirparty’scandidatesandlesslikelytoselectgiftcardsforchainswhose

PACssupporttheopposingparty’scandidates.Thispatternisaffirmedbyafield

experimentinwhichanewpoolofsubjectsdrawnfromanationalpanelsurveywassent

oneoftworandomlyassignedmailingsthatprovidedsimilarinformationaboutfirms’

contributions.Interviewsconductedaweeklatersuggestthatrespondentsrewarded

chainsfortheirpoliticallylike-mindedcontributionsandpunishedchainsthatsupported

theopposingparty.Evidently,partyattachmentsexpressthemselvesinconsumerchoice

whenvotersareinformedaboutaretailer’spartisansympathies.Thisisaformofpolitical

expressionthatismutedbythepublic’slackofawarenessofcorporatepolitical

contributions.Weconcludebyconsideringtheimplicationsofthesefindingsfortheories

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ofexpressivepartisanshipandforpoliciesconcerningthedisclosureofcampaign

contributions.

PoliticalConsumerism

Overtime,thestudyofpoliticalparticipationhasgraduallybroadenedfromthe

studyofvotingtoincludeawidearrayofotherwaysinwhichcitizensmayconveytheir

politicalviews,suchasparticipationinlocalaffairs(NieandVerba1972),volunteerwork

(Verba,Schlozman,andBrady1995),andprotestactivities(BarnesandKaase1979).The

intellectualtrendhasincreasinglycalledattentiontothemarketplaceasalocusofpolitical

expression.Thepoliticalconsumerismhypothesis(Stolle,Hooghe,andMicheletti2005;

AndersonandCunningham1972;Keumetal2004)contendsthatindividualsselectamong

productsandproducersbasedonsocial,politicalandethicalconsiderations,suchas“fair

trade”practices(Hainmueller,Hiscox,andSequeira2015),ethicallaborstandards

(HainmuellerandHiscox2015),andcorporatepoliticalactivity(Shahetal.2007:219).

PoliticalexpressionviaconsumerchoicehasalongtraditionintheUnitedStatesdatingto

thecolonialera,whenboycottswerethecenterpieceofAmericanresistancetowardBritish

rule(Breen2004).

Manyscholarscontendthatpoliticalpreferencesshapeconsumerdecisionstoa

politicalandeconomicallyimportantextent.Shahetal(2007:232)arguethat,“Consumer-

citizens,whoexercisetheirpoliticalvaluesandconcernsthroughtheirconsumption

patterns,viewtheeconomicrealmasameaningfulsphereinwhichtoadvancetheirmoral

andsocialconcerns.”Responsestocorporateactivitymaytaketheformofboycotts

(punishingbusinessforunfavorablebehaviorbywithholdingdemand)orbuycotts

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(rewardingbusinessforfavorablebehaviorbyincreasingdemand).Formany,political

consumerismprovidesanalternativemodetoengagewithpublicissuesoutsideof

conventionalpoliticalchannels(Nielson2010;Shahetal.2007;BennettandEntman

2001).LargesegmentsoftheAmericanpublicreportthattheyengageinboycottsand

buycotts(PanagopoulosandEndres2016;NewmanandBartels2011),andthis

phenomenoniscommoninWesternEurope(Ferrer-FonsandFraile.2014),theMiddle

East(BensteadandReif2015;FarahandNewman2010),andinLatinAmerica(Echegaray

2015).Byusingthemarkettoexpresspoliticalandmoralconcerns,politicalconsumerism

isamanifestationofwhatBennett(1998)terms“lifestylepolitics”andreflectsthebroader

tendencytofindpoliticalmeaninginrecreationalexperiences,entertainmentchoices,

fashiondecisionsandotherpersonalchoices(Shahetal.2007:219).1

Ispoliticalconsumerismaforcethatcorporationsmustheed?Consumerdemand

increaseswhenproductsareadvertisedwithreferencetowidely-sharedvaluessuchas

supportforhumanrights(Hainmuelleretal.2015;HainmuellerandHiscox2015a)or

environmentalprotection(HainmuellerandHiscox2015b),andthesevaluesveryoften

appearinthe“missionstatements”thatcorporationsfeatureontheirwebsites.

1Politicalconsumerismhasbeenobservedinmanycountriesandcontexts(Stolle,HoogheandMicheletti2005;StolleandMicheletti2015).Individualsconcernedabouttheenvironment,forexample,aremorelikelytoseekandpurchaseenvironmentallyfriendlyproducts(MintonandRose1997).Researchhasfoundthatwomen,youngpeopleandmoreeducatedindividualsareparticularlylikelytomakeconsumptiondecisionsbasedonpoliticalconsiderations.Mediause,andespeciallynewsconsumption,seemstopredictpoliticallymotivatedconsumption,presumablybecauseitprovidessignalstoconsumersaboutpolitically-relevantcorporateactivity(Holt2000;Keumetal.2004).Althoughwerestrictourattentionheretopoliticalpartisanship,ourempiricalstrategyreadilyextendstotheseotherpoliticaldomains.

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Aswemovefromconsensusvaluestomorecontentiousissues,overtsupport

becomesrarer.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhatcorporationsarewisetoavoidentangling

themselvesindivisivepoliticalissues.AtellingcaseinpointaroseinJuneof2012,when

theAmericanfast-foodchainChick-fil-Abecamethecenterofcontroversy.DanT.Cathy,

thecompany’schiefoperatingofficermadecommentsopposingsame-sexmarriage,and

reportssurfacedthatthecompany’scharitablearm,theWinShapeFoundation,had

donatedmillionstoorganizationshostiletosame-sexmarriagerights.Opponentscalledfor

protestsandboycottsnationwide,whilesupportersralliedtoeatattherestaurants

(Severson2012).Afewweekslater,thechainissuedastatementstatingthat,“[g]oing

forward,ourintentistoleavethepolicydebateoversame-sexmarriagetothegovernment

andpoliticalarena.”

OneimplicationoftheChick-fil-Aexampleisthatcorporationswadeintopartisan

politicsattheirperil.Partyaffiliationhaslongbeenrecognizedasanespeciallyimportant

politicalorientation(Campbelletal.1960),andrecentworkhasunderscoredtherangeof

waysinwhichpartisanattachmentsexpressthemselves.Buildingonsocialidentitytheory

(Tajfel&Turner1979),experimentsbyHuddyetal.(2015)showthatpartisans’political

actions,suchascampaigninvolvement,expressadeep-seatedgroupidentity,whichinturn

leadspartisanstorisetothedefenseofthepartyin-group.AlthoughHuddyetal.(2015)

didnotanalyzeconsumerbehavior,theirhypothesisabouttheexpressionofpartisan

socialidentitypredictsthatconsumerswillreacttoinformationaboutcorporatecampaign

activityinwaysthatreflecttheirpartisanpredispositions.Corporationsthatsupportthe

opposingpartywillbeperceivedasathreattothepartisanin-group,whilethosethat

supportone’sownpartywillbeseenasmeritingin-grouployalty.Inthenextsection,we

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deviseatestofthishypothesisbyassessingtheextenttowhichpartisanschangetheir

consumerbehaviorbasedoninformationaboutwhichpoliticalpartiescorporations

supportthroughtheirPACs.

ExperimentalDesign:Studies1and2

Duringthesummerof2015,weconductedtwosurveyexperiments,bothusingthe

samebasicexperimentaldesignbutwithdifferentsubjects.Inthefirststudy,werandomly

assignedinformationabouttwotypesoffranchises,hamburgerrestaurantsandlargeretail

chains.Inthesecondstudy,weexpandedthelistofcategoriesfromtwotofourby

includingpizzarestaurantsanddrugstores.

Inordertoensurethatourexperimentalinterventionwasrelevanttothe

participants,eachsurveyexperimentwasconductedovertwowavesofinterviews.Inthe

firstwave,AmazonMechanicalTurkworkerswerepaidasmallfeeof$1tocompletea

brieffiveminutesurveythatassessed(1)thefrequencywithwhichtheypatronizedeachof

thestoresthatwouldlaterappearinourquiz,(2)theirratingsofthesestores,(3)their

partyidentification,and(4)demographiccharacteristics.Respondentswerealsoasked

whethertheywouldbewillingtoparticipateinafollow-upsurvey.Atotalof3,809

respondentscompletedthebaselinesurveyinStudy1;another3,739completedthe

baselinesurveyinStudy2.Approximatelyaweeklater,weinvitedasubsetofthebaseline

respondentstocompleteafollow-upsurvey.Invitationswereextendedtothosewho

indicatedawillingnesstocompleteafollow-upsurvey,maintainedanactiveMechanical

Turkaccount,providedananswertothebaselinesurvey’spartyidentificationquestion,

anddidnotindicatethatthey“never”patronizeanyofthestoresinoneormoreofour

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storecategories.Invitationswereextendedto3,457participantsinStudy1and3,413in

Study2.

Inordertomotivatesubjectstoattendcloselytothecontentofthequiz,thesecond

wavesurveywasprefacedwiththefollowinginstructions:“Wewillbeaskingyoufactual

questionsaboutsomeoftheplaceswhereyoumayeatandshop.Attheendofeachsection,

youwillbegiventheopportunitytoenterarandomdrawingtowinoneofonehundred

$10giftcards.Foreachquestionyouanswercorrectly,wewilladdanadditionalentryfor

youinordertoincreaseyourchancesofwinning.”Theoverwhelmingmajorityof

respondents(96%)indicatedtheirwillingnesstoparticipateineachlottery,whichisnot

surprisinggiventhattheprizewaslargeinrelationtotheflatwagepaidtothosewho

participatedinthesurvey.

Ineachstudy,werandomlyassignedsubjectstooneoffiveexperimentalgroups.2

Thefirstquizfocusedonthreehamburgerchains(BurgerKing,McDonald’s,andWendy’s).

Thefirstthreequestionsofthequizfocusedonnon-politicalcontent(e.g.,Whichofthe

threechainswasthefirsttointroducea“dollarmenu”?).Allrespondentssawthesame

threeinitialquestionsandanswers.Thefourthquestionwasmanipulatedrandomly.In

theRepublicanPercentagecondition,subjectswereasked“Whichofthesecompaniesgave

thelargestpercentageoftheirpoliticalcontributionstoRepublicancandidatesin2014?”

and,afteranswering,toldthatthecorrectanswerisWendy’s:“Throughtheirpolitical

actioncommittee,Wendy’sgave93%oftheirtotalpoliticalcontributionstoRepublican

candidatesin2014.”IntheDemocraticPercentagecondition,subjectswereasked“Which2InStudy1,weincludedasixthconditionthataskedsubjectsaboutwhichchaincontributedthemosttobothparties.WeexcludedthisconditionfromStudy2becausewehadnocleartheoreticalpredictionabouthowsubjectswouldrespondtothisinformation,and,indeed,itproducednoapparenttreatmenteffect.

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ofthesecompaniesgavethelargestpercentageoftheirpoliticalcontributionsto

Democraticcandidatesin2014?”and,afteranswering,toldthatthecorrectansweris

BurgerKing.IntheRepublicanAmountcondition,subjectswereasked“Whichofthese

companiesgavethemostdollarstoRepublicancandidatesin2014?”and,afteranswering,

toldthatthecorrectanswerisMcDonald’s.TheDemocraticAmountquestionwasworded

similarly,andagaintheanswerisMcDonald’s.Finally,acontrolconditionaskedsubjectsa

non-politicalquestion:“In2010,whichrestaurantaddedseasalttotheirfries?”Itshould

benotedthatalloftheinformationprovidedtorespondentswasfactuallyaccurate;by

framingthequestionsindifferentways,wewereabletocallattentiontothepartisan

colorationofaparticularchain.Noneoftheotherquestionsinthesecondwavesurvey

askedaboutpoliticsuntilafteroutcomemeasuresweregathered.3

Aftereachquiz,subjectswereaskedwhethertheywouldliketoparticipateina

lotteryforoneoftheonehundred$10giftcardprizes.Therewerenoapparenteffectsof

thetreatmentonwillingnesstoparticipateinthelotteryforanyofthequizzesineither

Study1orStudy2.4Thosewhoagreedwerethenasked,“Whichofthefollowing

companieswouldyouliketoreceiveagiftcardtoifyouwintheraffle?”andpresentedwith

thelistofstoresthatappearedinthequiz.Afterselectingagiftcard,respondentswere

askedtheirfutureshoppingintentions.Thissequenceofrandomlyassignedquizcontent,

giftcardpreference,andanticipatedpatronageofeachstorewasrepeatedforretailstores,

3Attheveryendofthesurvey,afterallrelevantconsumeroutcomeshadbeenmeasured,weaskedaboutwhichparty’scandidatetherespondentintendedtovoteforinthe2016congressionalelections.4InStudy1,96.2%ofrespondentsassignedtoatreatmentand96.0%ofrespondentsassignedtothecontrolagreedtoparticipateinthelottery.InStudy2,96.0%ofrespondentsassignedtoatreatmentand95.1%ofrespondentsassignedtothecontrolagreedtoparticipate.

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pizzarestaurants,anddrugstores.5Table1summarizesthenumberofrespondents

assignedtoeachexperimentalconditionandindicatesthecorrectanswertoeach

experimentallymanipulatedquestion.Asexpected,randomassignmenttotreatment

conditionisstatisticallyunrelatedtorespondents’backgroundcovariatesasmeasuredin

thebaselinesurveywave:age,gender,approvalofObama,andthefrequencywithwhich

theypatronizethelargestchainstoreineachofthestorecategories.Multinomial

regressionoftheassignedexperimentalconditiononthesecovariatesproduces

insignificantlikelihoodratiostatistics.Thep-valuesfortheeightrandomassignments

rangefrom0.11to0.63.

Thedistributionofquizanswersstronglysuggeststhatthepoliticalinformationwas

noveltorespondents.Table2summarizesanswerstoeachofthequizquestions.

Whereas,forexample,alargeproportionofsubjectsknewthatbaconisnotastandard

ingredientinBurgerKing’s“whopper”hamburger,answerstothefactualquestionsabout

politicaldonationswerescarcelymoreaccuratethanwouldbeexpectedbyrandom

guessing.Thefactthatthepoliticalinformationisnewtorespondentshasimportant

implicationsfortheinterpretationofourresultsbecauseitsuggeststhatalargemajorityof

eachtreatmentgrouphadanopportunitytoupdatetheirevaluationsofthechainstores

basedontheinformationprovided.

Howsubjectsrespondtoinformationaboutpoliticalcontributionspresumably

dependsontheirownpartyattachments.RepublicansshouldevaluateWendy’smore

favorablyuponlearningthatWendy’sisthehamburgerchainthatgivesthelargest

5Thesequenceinwhichthechainstoreswerepresentedwasrandomlyassigned,andafreshrandomassignmentofexperimentalconditionwasperformedforeachstorecategory.

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proportionofitsdonationstoRepublicans;thesamenewsshouldproducealessfavorable

assessmentamongDemocrats.Forthisreason,weassesstreatmenteffectsseparately

accordingtowhethersubjectsidentifiedasRepublicansorDemocratsinthebaseline

surveyofeachstudy.Thisclassificationusedtheinitialquestiontothetraditionalparty

identificationmeasureusedbytheAmericanNationalElectionStudiessincethe1950s:

“Generallyspeaking,doyouusuallythinkofyourselfasaRepublican,aDemocrat,an

Independent,orsomethingelse?”6Althoughthedistributionofpartisansinourtwo

studiesismoreDemocraticthanwouldbetypicalofarepresentativenationalsurvey,we

neverthelesshaveamplenumbersofDemocratsandRepublicansforpurposesofassessing

treatmenteffectsforeachpartisangroup.Inthefirststudy,weobtainedresponsesfrom

972Democratsand363Republicans;inthesecondstudy,1,029Democratsand466

Republicans.7Takentogether,wehaveatotalof48experimentalcomparisons:sixsetsof

experimentaltests(hamburgerchainsandretailstoresinStudy1;hamburger,retail,pizza,

anddrugstoresinStudy2),eachfeaturingfourtreatmentgroupcomparisonstoacontrol

condition,whichareinturnconsideredseparatelyforself-describedDemocratsand

Republicans.Thiswealthofcomparisonsprovidesapreciseassessmentofwhetherandto

whatextentpoliticalinformationaffectssubjects’giftcardpreferences.

6Similarresultsareobtainedwhenoneexpandsthedefinitionofeachpartisangrouptoinclude“leaningindependents”basedonthestandardAmericanNationalElectionStudyfollow-upquestionthatasksindependentswhethertheyfeelclosertoonepartyortheother.7WhenconductingStudy2,weinadvertentlyallowed835subjectswhoparticipatedinthefirststudytoparticipateinthesecondstudy.Forallcalculations,weexcluderepeatsubjectsfromStudy2onthegroundsthatparticipationinthefirststudymayhaveaffectedthesesubjects’behaviorinthesecondstudy(whetherthroughlearningorperceivingadesiredresponsefromtheresearchers).Asitturnsout,weobtainsimilarresultswithandwithouttheserepeatsubjects.

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Results.Table3presentsdetailedresultsforeachstudy,treatmentcondition,and

partisangroup.Ourstatisticalanalysissummarizestherelationshipbetweenpolitical

informationandgiftcardpreference.Foreachofthe48comparisonsofatreatmentgroup

withacontrolgroup,weassesswhethertheapparenttreatmenteffectisinthepredicted

direction.ForDemocraticrespondents,thepredictionisthatdemandforgiftcardsfrom

firmjdiminishes(increases)whenthatfirmisshowntosupportRepublicans(Democrats).

ForRepublicans,thesepredictionsarereversed.Wefindthat36ofthe48comparisons

pointinthepredicteddirection.Randomizationinferenceshowsthatasetofpredictions

thislopsidedwouldoccurbychancewithp=0.0004.8

Next,wecalculatetheaverageeffectofnegativeandpositivepoliticalinformation

ongiftcarddemand.Acrossall48comparisons,giftcarddemandchangedbyanaverageof

3.89percentagepointsinthepredicteddirection.Inordertocalculatetheconfidence

intervalsurroundingthisestimate,weuserandomizationinferenceandassumethatthe

effectoftreatmentinthepredicteddirectionisthesameforeverysubject(Gerberand

Green2012,pp.67-71).Weobtaina95percentconfidenceintervalrangingfrom2.0to5.1

percentagepointsinthepredicteddirection.Overall,wefindarobustchangeingiftcard

demandwhenafirmisrevealedtosupportoropposerespondents’preferredparty.

Theaverageshiftinpreferenceacrossalloftheassignedinformationconditions

arguablyunderstatesthetruemagnitudeoftheinformationeffect.Insomeinstances,the

informationrevealedtorespondentsconveysatmostaweaksignalofpartysupport.(See8Thereferencedistributionwasgeneratedbysimulation,permutingtheassignmentoftreatmentconditions10,000timesandassessingtheresultingdistributionofcomparisonsthatcameoutinthepredicteddirection.Thismethodaccountsfordependenciesthatariseduetothefactthatmultipletreatmentarmsarecomparedtothesamecontrolgroup.

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TableA1forasummaryofchainstores’contributions.)Amongpizzachains,forexample,

thelargestpercentagedonortoDemocratsisDomino’s,butthatfirmgivesDemocratsa

meager22%.ItshouldnotbesurprisingtofindinTable3thatthisinformationfailsto

makeDomino’sappreciablymoreattractiveintheeyesofDemocratsorlessattractivein

theeyesofRepublicans.Becauseweprovidedonlytruthfulinformationtorespondents

(andthereforedidnotrandomlyvarythereporteddonationsmadebyeachcorporate

chain),ourexperimentdoesnotallowforadirecttestofthehypothesisthatpartysupport

mattersmostwhencorporationsdisplaysubstantialsupport,butthedatacertainlyhint

thatthisisthecase.

Oneinterestingfeatureofourexperimentaldesignisthatitenablesustoassess

whetherestimatedtreatmenteffectsamongDemocratsareequalinmagnitudebut

oppositeinsigntothecorrespondingeffectsamongRepublicanswhenbothgroupsreceive

thesameinformation.Figure1demonstratesthatthisinfactthecase.Thehorizontalaxis

gaugeseffectsizeamongDemocrats,andtheverticalaxisgaugeseffectsizeamong

Republicans.Thehypothesisofequalandoppositeeffectsimpliesadownwardsloping

regressionlinepassingthroughtheoriginata45-degreeangle,andtheobservedeffectson

averagefollowthispredictedpattern.Apparently,thesamenewsthatraisesafirm’s

statureintheeyesofonepartylowersitcorrespondinglyintheeyesoftheopposingparty.

RobustnessChecksandPlaceboTests.Thissectionreportstheresultsofaseriesof

furtherteststoestablishthattheeffectonconsumerpreferencesshowsupwherewe

expectitanddoesnotshowupwherewedonotexpectit.First,wetestwhethertheeffect

isapparentwhenconsumerpreferenceismeasuredbyanoutcomeotherthanchoiceofgift

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card.Respondentswereaskeddirectlyabouttheirfutureshoppinganddiningintentions.

Forexample,respondentswereasked,“Thinkingahead,andusingthefollowingscale,how

oftendoyouplantoeatatthefollowinghamburgerrestaurants?”Anorderedseriesoffive

responseoptionsrangedfrom“severaltimesaweek”to“never.”Inordertocompare

treatmentandcontrolresponsedistributions,weusedorderedlogittoregressfrequency

ofanticipateddiningorshoppingonadummyvariablefortreatment.Consistentwiththe

findingsregardingthegiftcard,wefound39of48estimatedtreatmenteffectstobeinthe

predicteddirection(p<0.0001).SeetheAppendixforfullresultswithandwithout

controlsforpre-treatmentcovariates.

Second,wenotethatRepublicansandDemocratsdonotrespondstronglyor

systematicallytoinformationthatcarriesnopartisanvalence.Whenlearningthata

restaurantorchainstoreisthelargestoverallcampaigndonor,partisansneitherreward

norpunishthefirmwithenhancedordiminisheddemandforgiftcardsorexpectedfuture

purchases.9Bythesametoken,thepartisaninformationdescribedaboveseemstohave

nosystematiceffectonself-describedindependents.Itappearsthattwoconditionsmust

holdbeforeconsumersrewardorpunishfirmsfortheirpoliticalcontributions:the

consumersthemselvesmustharborapartyattachment,andtheinformationtheyreceive

aboutcontributionsmustspecifywhichpartythefirmsupports.

ExperimentalDesign:Study3

Studies1and2demonstratethatpartisansrespondtoinformationaboutrestaurant

9Inthefirstroundofdatacollection,“totalcontributions”wasoneoftherandomlyassignedquizquestions.BothDemocratsandRepublicansshowedsmallbutinsignificantincreasesingiftcarddemandforboththebiggestdonors(McDonald’sandWalmart).

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andretailchains’recordofpartisansupport.Theresultsarerobustacrosspartiesand

outcomemeasures,yettwoquestionsremainaboutthegeneralizabilityoftheresults.The

firstiswhethertheeffectcanbeinducedinsomewayotherthanviaaquizthat

incentivizesrespondentstopaycloseattention.Thesecondiswhetherthetreatmenteffect

persistsovertime–Studies1and2askedrespondentsabouttheirpreferencesand

intendedbehaviorshortlyaftertheyencounteredtheexperimentalinformation.Inorder

toaddressthesequestions,Study3teststheeffectofapostcardmailedtothehome

addressofpanelsurveyrespondents,whoansweredanend-linesurveyaweeklater.

WepartneredwithYouGov/Polimetrix,whichrecruitedasampleofrespondents

fromitsnationwideonlinepanel.Subjectswererestrictedtoself-identifiedDemocratsor

RepublicansbasedonthestemquestionoftheconventionalAmericanNationalElection

Studypartyidentificationmeasure.10InkeepingwithStudies1and2,respondents

completedapreliminarysurveythatprobedthemaboutbasicpoliticalattitudesand

consumerpreferencesandbehaviors(seeAppendixforsurveyinstrument).These

responsesfurnishpre-treatment,baselinemeasuresofsocial,political,andconsumer

attitudesandbehaviors.Atotalof1,658respondentscompletedtheinitialwaveofour

survey,fieldedJune15-24,2016.

Ourexperimentaltreatmentconsistedofapostcardmailingdesignedtoprovide

informationaboutthepoliticalcontributionsoffirmsinthe2014federalelections.To

maximizeattentiontothetreatments,aprofessionalgraphicsdesignerproducedcolor

postcardsthatwerevisuallyengaging.Thecontentofthepostcardswasdesignedto

parallelascloselyaspossiblethekeytreatmentelementsinStudies1and2.(SeeAppendix

10Thus,independentsandleaningpartisansareexcluded.

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forreproductionsofthepostcards.)Toenhancepower,wefocusedonjusttwochainstores

withsharplycontrastingpatternsofpartysupport.OnepostcardhighlightedPAC

contributionsbyBedBath&Beyond,achainthatcontributed71%ofitsPACcontributions

toDemocraticcandidatesinthe2014cycle;theotherprovidedparallelinformationabout

Wendy’s,achainthatdirected93%ofitscontributionstoGOPcandidatesin2014.11The

postcardsalsonotedthatthesepercentageswerehigherthantwocompetingfirmsineach

commercialcategory(McDonaldsandBurgerKingforhamburgerchains;Targetand

Walmartforbig-boxchains).

YouGov/Polimetrixrandomlydividedthesubjectpoolinhalfanddesignatedhalfof

therespondentstoreceivetheBedBath&Beyondpostcardandtheotherhalftoreceive

theWendy’spostcard.Postcardsweremailedusingfirst-classpostageonJune30,2016

andwereexpectedtoarrivebetweenJuly5thand6th.

Approximatelyoneweekfollowingexpecteddeliveryofthepostcards,duringthe

periodJuly13-20,YouGov/Polimetrixfieldedafollow-uponlinesurveyamongsubjects

whohadcompletedthebaselinesurveyandweremailedapostcard.Thesecondwaveof

thesurveyfeaturedquestionitemsaboutrespondents’socialandpoliticalviews,and,

crucially,aboutfutureconsumerintentions.Atotalof1,446subjectscompletedthefollow-

upwaveofthesurvey,forareinterviewrateof87%.Reinterviewratesdiffered

insignificantlyacrossexperimentalconditions:86.6%amongthosereceivingtheWendy’s

11Thepostcardsinformedrespondentsthatthepercentagesreportedwerebasedonnumberscompiledbyopensecrets.org.ThetextofthepostcardscharacterizethecontributionsasPACcontributions,buttheopensecrets.orgstatisticswecitedcombinePACcontributionswithcontributionsfromcorporateexecutives.StatisticsreportedinthetwoMTurkstudieswerecharacterizedinasimilarway,duetoourmisreadingoftheopensecrets.orgreport.Wedonotexpectthatourmistakencharacterizationaffectedthewayinwhichsubjectperceivedtheinformation.

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postcardand87.9%amongthosereceivingtheBedBath&Beyondpostcard.Thosewho

completedtheend-linesurveywere72%white,58%female,and58%self-identified

Democrats.Fully67%reportedthattheyeatatWendy’satleast“afewtimesayear”inthe

baselinesurvey;58%reportedthattheyshopatBedBath&Beyondatleast“afewtimesa

year.”

Ouroutcomemeasureisdrawnfromaseriesofsurveyitemsprobingsubjectsabout

theirconsumerintentions.UsingthewordingandformatasinStudies1and2,onesetof

questionsaskedrespondentsabouttheirconsumerintentionswithrespecttothree,fast-

foodhamburgerchains(inrandomorder:Wendy’s,McDonaldsandBurgerKing),while

anothersetinquiredaboutbig-boxshoppingintentionsatTarget,Walmart,andBedBath&

Beyond,randomlyordered.Foreachfirm,subjectsindicatedwhethertheyexpectedtoeat

orshopateachfirmrespectivelyeither“severaltimesaweek,”“aboutonceaweek,”“once

ortwiceamonth,”“afewtimesayear,”or“never.”Becausethisoutcomemeasureisa

seriesoforderedcategories,weuseorderedlogisticregressiontoestimatethelatent

treatmenteffect.

Asamanipulationcheck,thesecondwavesurveyconcludedwithtwoknowledge

questionsthattestedparticipants’abilitytorecallthecontentofthepostcards.One

questionasked“Whichofthefollowinghamburgerrestaurantsgavethehighestpercentage

ofitspoliticalcontributionstoRepublicansin2014?”Theotherasked“Whichofthe

followingbigboxstoresgavethehighestpercentageofitspoliticalcontributionsto

Democratsin2014?”Theresultsleavenodoubtthatthemailingmadethetreatment

groupsignificantlymoreknowledgeable.Just5.7%ofthecontrolgroupcorrectly

answeredthefirstquestion,ascomparedto23.6%ofthetreatmentgroup.Thesecond

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questionwascorrectlyansweredby3.3%ofthecontrolgroupand12.7%ofthetreatment

group.Thep-valuesofthesecontrastsarewellbelow0.0001inbothcases.

Results.Table4estimatestheaveragetreatmenteffectforeachoffourexperimental

contrasts.AmongDemocrats,newsthatWendy’scontributesoverwhelminglyto

Republicansshoulddiminishtheirwillingnesstodinethereinthefuture;forRepublicans,

thisinformationshouldincreasetheirwillingnesstodoso.TheBedBath&Beyond

postcardshouldincreaseshoppingintentionsamongDemocratsbutdecreasethemamong

Republicans.Resultsfromtherawcomparisonbetweentreatmentandcontrolgroupsare

ambiguous,butcontrollingfordiningandshoppingpatternsmeasuredinthebaseline

surveysharpenstheresultsconsiderably.Aftercontrollingforbaselineconsumption,all

fourestimatesareinthepredicteddirection.Incolumns2and5ofTable4,thefour

estimatedt-ratiosforthetreatmenteffectsare-1.73,1.02,0.63,and-1.29.Tocalculatethe

one-sidedjointsignificanceoftheseestimates,wecodethemallinthepositivedirectionto

obtainanaveraget-ratio;thep-valueofobtaininganaveragestatisticatleastthislargein

fourtestsislessthan0.01.Addingfurthercovariatesforbaselineconsumptionat

competingchainstores(columns3and6)producessimilarresults,againwithp<0.01.

Howlargeistheeffectinsubstantiveterms?Usingmeta-analysistopoolthefour

orderedlogisticregressioncoefficientsfromthefullsetofcovariatesindicatesthatthe

postcardsonaveragechangedlatentdemandby0.215logits.Thismovementonthe

logisticscaleisequivalenttoshiftingtheproportionsayingthattheyplanto“never”

patronizeachainstorefrom26.9%(inthecontrolcondition)upto31.3%(inthenegative

informationcondition)ordownto22.9%(inthepositiveinformationcondition).Thisshift

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indemandissimilarinmagnitudetowhatwefoundinStudies1and2andsimilaralsoto

theresultsofotherfieldexperimentsthattesttheeffectsofinformationaboutfairtrade

(Hainmuelleretal.2015),sweatshoplabor(HainmuellerandHiscox2015a),or

environmentalpollution(HainmuellerandHiscox2015b).Whereaspreviousexperiments

havedemonstratedtheeffectofinformationondemandforspecificproducts,oursshow

thatinformationalsoaffectsdemandforonechainstoreoveranother.

Discussion

Althoughtheliteratureonpartyidentificationisvast,politicalscientistsseldom

studytheeffectsofpartisanshiponconsumerbehavior(foranexception,seeGerberand

Huber2009),presumablybecausebehaviorssuchasshoppinganddiningareconsidered

outsidethescopeofpolitics.Ourexperimentssuggestthatconsumerpreferencescanbe

shapedbypartyattachments.Consumerswhoidentifywithamajorpartyrespondto

informationaboutthepartisancolorationoffirmssuchasWendy’sorWalmart.Itappears

thatfewpeoplehavemuchbackgroundknowledgeaboutthepoliticalsympathiesof

leadingnationalchains,butwhentoldwhichcorporationsarethelargestormostlopsided

contributorstoapoliticalparty,respondentsexpresstheirpartisanshipthroughtheir

consumptionchoices.DemocratsandRepublicansrewardfirmsthatprovidefinancial

backingtotheirpartyandpunishfirmsthatcontributemoneytotheopposingparty.This

effectwasdemonstrateddecisivelyinStudies1and2,whichwerecarriedoutinthe

contextofanon-linesurveyexperiment.Study3waslessfar-reachingintermsofchain

storesandlesspowerfulthanthetwostudiesthatprecededit,butitsdesignassessesthe

narrowbutimportantquestionofwhetherthiseffectcanbeproducedoutsidethesurvey

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contextandsustainedoverseveraldays.Theoverallpatternofresultsconfirmedthat

partisansrewardorpunishfirmsuponlearningthattheircampaigncontributions

lopsidedlyfavoroneparty.

Themagnitudeofthiseffectislargeenoughtobeeconomicallymeaningful.In

Studies1and2,informingrespondentsaboutwhichfirmisthemostardentcontributorto

theirpartyincreasestheiraverageprobabilityofselectingthatfirm’sgiftcardby3.89

percentagepoints.Sincetheaveragefirminourstudycommandsapproximately31.5%of

thegiftcardmarketinitsrestaurantorretailcategory,thiseffectimpliesasizeableshiftin

theshareofgiftcardsthatasinglefirmcommands.Study3produceseffectsthatare

similarinmagnitudeonanunderlyinglogisticscale.

Althoughthismanifestationofpartisanattachmentsisimportanttothosewho

studypoliticalexpression,themarketimplicationsofthisphenomenonareambiguous.If

equivalentnumbersofDemocratsandRepublicansmoveinoppositedirectionsinresponse

tothisinformation,theneteffectonconsumerpreferencesiszero.However,inregions

wherethepartisanbalancestronglyfavorsoneparty(e.g.,NewYorkCity),thistypeof

informationcouldchangeafirm’smarketshare.Interestingly,apartisanreputationmight

beriskyeveninareaswherethefirm’spreferredpartypredominates.Ifpeopleshopor

dineinpoliticallyheterogeneousgroups,puttingoffonememberofsuchagroupmay

redirectitsbusinesselsewhere.

Fromapolicystandpoint,onepotentiallydisturbingramificationofthesefindingsis

thepossibilitythattheymightpersuadesomecorporationstodisbandordeemphasize

theirPACsinfavorofmoreopaquecategoriesofpoliticalfinancing.Theseopaquemethods

offunding–knowncolloquiallyas“darkmoney”–includegivingtoorganizationslikethe

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ChamberofCommerceorCrossroadsGPS,whichhaverefusedtodisclosetheirdonorson

thegroundsthattheiractivitiesarenotelectioneering.Ironically,JusticeKennedy,writing

forthemajorityinCitizensUnited,repeatedlyassertsthatdisclaimeranddisclosure

requirementsareconstitutionalandposenochillingeffectonspeakerswithoutseemingto

noticethattheCourt’sdecisioninCitizensUnitedandearliercasescreateloopholesthat

allowdonorstoavoiddisclosure.

Wethinkofourfindingsasdemonstratingthepotentialimportanceofdisclosure.

Thefactthatasizablesubsetofrespondentsrewardedorpunishedcompaniesfortheir

politicalgivingbychoosing,atleastintheshortrun,totaketheirpatronageelsewhere

confirmsbusinessandpoliticsmightnotalwaysmix.That,inturn,providesrealimpetus

behindinformationproductssuchasthe“BuyPartisan”app,whichmakesacorporation’s

politicalgivingeasierforshopperstosee.Althoughourresultsfocussolelyonparty-

relatedinformation,futureresearchmaydemonstratecomparableeffectswhenfirmsare

associatedwithpoliticalcauses,suchasenvironmentalconservation,genderequality,or

supportforhumanrights.

Finally,ourfindingsgivecredencetolegislativeproposalsdesignedtoenhance

disclosuresothatthepublicisinformedaboutthefinancialbackerswhenever

communicationsmentioncandidates.Giventheuncertainprospectsofsuchlegislationin

thecurrentpoliticalenvironment,thefactthatmanymajordonorsofdarkmoneyare

publiclytradedcorporationscreatesotheroptionstoshinelightontheiractivitiessuchas

shareholdersuitsorSEC-requireddisclosure.Ourstudysuggeststhat,ifsuccessful,these

disclosurechannelswouldprovideinformationthatconsumersfindrelevant.

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