Risks and effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Peoples and Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico Region

byChris Beal

Jessica DeBiasioPeter SpartosSarah Wilkins May 11, 2007

ENSC 202 Ecological Risk

Assessment

Sea level rise across the next century will have adverse effects on human populations and ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico.

The Problem…

Background

• Humans are producing greenhouse gases

• Increased GHGs has lead to global warming

• The changes in air and ocean temperatures along with decreases in annual snow and ice cover has contributed to a slow but steady rise in sea-level.

Alley et al. 2007

…Background…

Alley et al. 2007

Outline

• characterize the risk of impacts – on ecosystems – cultures/societies and economies

• explore the management options

Coastal Vulnerability Index

Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000

Coastal Vulnerability Index

Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000

Coastal Vulnerability Index

DB’s House

Your grandma’s house

Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000

Ecological Impacts

• Forest Decline and Saltwater Intrusion– Forests will be slow to respond to saltwater intrusion

• Regeneration fails several decades before tree canopies die• Possible loss of entire forests

– Intrusion will prevent lenticel function and oxygen uptake in Mangroves

• Wetland Loss– 41% of the nation’s wetlands occur in Louisiana– 80% of national coastal wetland loss

• Accretion, subsidence

…Ecological Impacts

• Flooding– Increased inland events due to reduced drainage

volume area of rivers and streams

• Coastal Erosion and Barrier Island Loss– Less protection– Larger storm surges and greater intrusion

…Socioeconomic and Cultural Impacts

• Commercial Fisheries– Habitat loss; coastal areas, wetlands– Wetland obligate fisheries and species will suffer most

• Agriculture – Salinization of local irrigation waters– Increased storm events

• Crop damage

• Oil, Gas and Chemical Industries– Transport difficulties– Subsidence and sea level rise threaten 30,000 wells– Loss in coastal protection make wells more vulnerable

• Tourism and Entertainment– Recreation/natural areas lost– Potential 75% loss in tourist revenue – Destruction of pristine beaches and coral reefs

…Socioeconomic and Cultural Impacts

…Socioeconomic and Cultural Impacts

• Port Transfer and Shipping– Impeded by increases in severe storm events– Increased port vulnerability

• Health Risks and Displacement of Human Populations– Water Supply– Trauma– Destruction of infrastructure

Management

• Beach re-nourishment

• Decrease anthropogenic disturbances

• Increase accretion

• Consider sea level rise in planning

• Do not develop on vulnerable coastlines

• Address global warming

Conclusions

• Sea level rise is inevitable

• Degree of rise is debatable

• Convergence of variables makes sea level rise particularly problematic

Thank You

• Breck

• Flynn

• Joel

• The Gulf of Mexico