Risk Management - NYS Forum Home...• Risk is cultural –risk threshold and risk tolerance • Reacting to a risk could add cost or work activities or impact quality • Risk management

Fundamentals of Project Management

For the Acting PMPresented by

NYS Forum Project Management Workgroup

Kimberly Vining, PMP

Project Management Workgroup

1

Risk Management

Presenting WorkgroupProject Management Workgroup

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PMBOK Project Management Process Groups

Initiation

• Plan Risk Management (begins in initiation, finishes here)

• Identify Risks (begins in initiation, throughout project, listed here)

• Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (prioritize, probability and impact)

• Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (analyze effects)

• Plan Risk Responses

Planning

• Implement Risk Responses

• Monitor Risks

Execution and Control


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What is Risk Management?

• Issues are 100% (they have already happened)

• Risk is an uncertain event

• Risk is cultural – risk threshold and risk tolerance

• Reacting to a risk could add cost or work activities or impact quality

• Risk management plan tells how you’ll manage risk

• Your organization may have risk planning guidelines

Risk Management is one of the most

complex and technical knowledge areas

- but you can still do it!


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Levels of risks

• Individual risk – impacts one or more project objectives

• Overall project risk – impacts overall success or failure of project as

a whole

Categories:• Human

• Operational

• Reputational

• Procedural

• Technical

• Nature

• Political

• Structural

Types of risks• Positive (opportunity) – can help improve project

• Negative (threat) – can hurt project

• Financial

• Management

• Commercial/Contractual


5

Emergent Risk

• Risks that can only be recognized after they occur

• So how do you plan for these?

• Resilience:

• Right level of budget and schedule to include contingency for these

• Flexible processes where possible

• Empowered team with clear objectives able to act when a risk occurs

• Watch for warning signs

• Input from all stakeholders, not just immediate team

• Risks should be under constant review throughout project phases,

risk review is iterative!!!!

• Enterprise wide risk management at all levels (project, portfolio, and

organization) is needed


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The Uncertainty Spectrum


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Planning – Identifying Risks

• Brainstorm to identify risks

• May use formal tools like SWOT analysis & Root Cause Analysis

• “What would keep you from completing your tasks?”

• Review ALL of your plans for risks

• Competing projects and priorities are risks

• Don’t forget to use risk categories and lessons learned!

Use the David Letterman approach:

Top Ten Risks


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Planning – Performing Risk Analysis

• Estimate probability and impact

• Qualitative Analysis – high, medium, low

• Quantitative Analysis – more costly, use only on high risks

• Use probability x impact to give weighted risk

• High risks go to risk response planning

• Low risks go to a “watch” list

You have to start somewhere! Just use high,

medium, or low and plan responses

based on your risk tolerance


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Planning – Planning Risk Responses

• ACCEPT: wait until it happens or plan for a reserve

• low impact or low probability

• MITIGATE: spend time or money to REDUCE the risk

• TRANSFER: shift responsibility, buy insurance or hire a contractor

• AVOID: just don’t do it because it’s to risky!

• ESCALATE: If the threat is outside the scope of the project

• Add risk mitigation activities to costs and/or WBS

• Add risk reserves to final schedule or budget


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Planning – Planning Risk Responses

• ESCALATE: opportunity is outside project scope or PM’s

authority

• ACCEPT: take no action, low priority

• ENHANCE: increase probability

• EXPLOIT: increase probability, ensure it happens

• SHARE: transfer ownership/responsibility to share benefit


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Risk register/plan is the key output!

• What is the risk? Description of each risk

• Why is it a risk? Root cause of each risk

• How do you identify the risk? Symptoms and warning signs

• How big is the risk? Probability and impact and relative rating

• Who’s watching the risk? Risk owner for each risk

• What do we do if it happens? Risk response and strategy

Document all your risks, risk attributes,

and risk responses in one place –

the risk register


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Controlling - Control Risks

• Executing the risk management plan

• Reviewing risk register for risks that occur

• Implementing risk responses and spending reserves

• Determining if probabilities or impact have changed

• Closing risks and releasing reserves

• Assessing the environment for new risks or opportunities

Risks that happen use their reserves,

risks that don’t release reserves-

it averages out


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Thank you!

Questions?

[email protected]

Presenting Workgroup




Resource Management


Presenting WorkgroupPresenting Workgroup

What is Resource Management?

• Acquiring, Organizing, Developing, Managing, & Controlling the project team

• Relates closely to Stakeholder Management as your human resources on your project team are in fact stakeholders!!!



• Plan Resource Management

• Estimate Activity Resources

• Acquire Project Team

• Develop Project Team

• Manage Project Team

• Control Resources

Planning Phase Execution and Control

Purpose of Plan Resource Management:Establish approach and effort needed to manage resourcesAnalyze the team resources for skillsPlan to ensure skill development happens where needed

Plan for any possible organizational change that could be coming and potential project impactEnsure resources understand their role and RACI (Responsibility, Accountability, Contribute, Inform)

Acquire Project Team:• Private industry: Choose appropriate resources • Public industry: Often assigned team resources• Orient resources to the project (review charter

and any project documentation in the repository)

• Discuss and agree on roles and responsibilities• Be clear on reporting structure in a matrix

environment


Develop the Team (Execution of the project)

Team Dynamics (Tuckman Model)


Manage Project Team• Ensure resources are working tasks on

schedule, on budget, & are reporting issues and possible risks.

Adjust schedule and budget when slippage arises

Possibly crash a schedule and provide more resources for a task

Update risk log, issue log

Change Requests


Control Resources• Performed continuously in all project phases

• Ensure resources come on and off project as needed and as assigned

• Includes physical resources: equipment, materials, facilities, infrastructure, etc.

• Deal with resource shortages and surpluses

• Use tools such as issue logs, risk registers, work performance data, and lessons learned


Soft skills help to manage the team and control resources

• Skills that enhance an individual’s interactions• People skills• Communication skills (90% of a PMs job is

communication) Includes verbal and non-verbal (body language, tone)

• Leadership • Problem Solving• Influencing (e.g. mentorship) • Conflict Resolution/Management


Agile team approaches

• Self organizing teams:

– Absence of central control

– PM supports and trusts team, but doesn’t direct and guide to the same level as otherwise

– Experts, specialists

• Colocation where possible


Resource Management Trends

• Continuous improvement techniques

– Lean – try to find weak points and time loss in process

– Kaizen – make small incremental changes

– JIT – reduce response time


Summary

• Resource management is about receiving, building, and managing a project team

• Performing effectively

• Achieving your project goals and keeping in line with project


NYS Teachers’ Retirement System

518-447-2890

[email protected]






Project Schedule management

Project Quality ManagementJonathan Blake, PMP


What is Project schedule management?

• “Processes required to manage the timely completion of the project”

– Plan Schedule Management process

– Develop Schedule (via multiple processes)

– Control Schedule



What is Project schedule management?

• “Processes required to manage the timely completion of the project”

– Plan Schedule Management process

– Develop Schedule (via multiple processes)

– Control Schedule



Key Concepts

• Schedule vs. Plan

– Project Schedule: A set of linked activities with planned dates, durations, milestones, dependencies, and resources that is expected to produce project scope with the expected level of quality at an estimated cost. Can be represented in a variety of ways.

– Project Plan: A collection of documents that represent output of various planning processes (Scope, Cost, Quality, Risk, Procurement, etc.)



Key Concepts

• Project Schedule Presentation (Schedule Model)

– A way of depicting schedule that emphasizes a particular schedule attribute (dependencies, sequence, details, etc.)



Key Concepts

• Project Schedule Presentation (Schedule Model)

– A way of depicting schedule that emphasizes a particular schedule attribute (dependencies, sequence, details, etc.)


Which model emphasizes

which attribute?


Key Concepts

• Rolling Wave Planning

– A form of “progressive elaboration,” it is an iterative planning technique in which the work to be accomplished in the near term is planned in detail, while the work in the future is planned at a higher level



Key Concepts

• Rolling Wave Planning

– A form of “progressive elaboration,” it is an iterative planning technique in which the work to be accomplished in the near term is planned in detail, while the work in the future is planned at a higher level


Why might this be a good

idea?


Key Concepts

• WBS vs. Schedule

– WBS is a list of Deliverables broken into Work Packets; “a hierarchical decomposition of the total scope of work”

– Schedule is a list of Activities with estimated durations, assigned resources, established dependencies, and dated milestones



Key Concepts

• WBS vs. Schedule

– WBS is a list of Deliverables broken into Work Packets; “a hierarchical decomposition of the total scope of work”

– Schedule is a list of Activities with estimated durations, assigned resources, established dependencies, and dated milestones


I’m so confused!




Initiating Planning

6.1 Plan Schedule Management

6.2 Define Activities

6.3 Sequence Activities

6.4 Estimate Activity Resources

6.5 Estimate Activity Durations

6.6 Develop Schedule

ExecutingMonitoring

and Controlling

6.7 Control Schedule

Closing




Initiating Planning

6.1 Plan Schedule Management

6.2 Define Activities

6.3 Sequence Activities

6.4 Estimate Activity Resources

6.5 Estimate Activity Durations

6.6 Develop Schedule

ExecutingMonitoring

and Controlling

6.7 Control Schedule

Closing

Notice anything peculiar about

this distribution?


Plan Schedule Management• Establishes the policies, procedures, and documentation

standards for planning, developing, managing, executing, and controlling the project schedule

• Provides guidance and direction on how the project schedule will be managed throughout the project

• Results in a Schedule Management Plan, one of the documents in the Project Plan



Plan Schedule Management• Establishes the policies, procedures, and documentation

standards for planning, developing, managing, executing, and controlling the project schedule

• Provides guidance and direction on how the project schedule will be managed throughout the project

• Results in a Schedule Management Plan, one of the documents in the Project Plan


What was the definition of a

Project Plan again?


Define Activities• Identifies and documents the specific actions to be performed to

produce the project deliverables

• Breaks down work packages from WBS into activities that provide a basis for estimating, scheduling, executing, and controlling project work



Sequence Activities• Identifies and documents relationships among project activities

• Defines the logical sequence of work to obtain the greatest efficiency given all project constraints

• All activities (except first and last) should be connected to at least one predecessor and one successor



Estimate Activity Resources• Estimates the type and quantities of material, human resources,

equipment, or supplies required to perform each activity.

• Identifies the type, quantity, and characteristics of resources required to complete the activity (allowing more accurate cost and duration estimates)



Estimate Activity Durations• Estimates the number of work periods needed to complete

individual activities with estimated resources.

• Provides the amount of time each activity will take to complete

• Estimating techniques:

– Expert judgment

– Analogous estimating

– Parametric estimating

– Three-point estimating



Develop Schedule• Analyze activity sequences, durations, resource requirements,

and schedule constraints to create the project schedule

• Enter schedule activities, durations, resources, resource availabilities, and logical relationships into the scheduling tool to generate a schedule model with planned dates for completing project activities

• It is an iterative process; as work progresses, the project schedule must be maintained and revised to sustain a realistic expectation of project effort and duration



Control Schedule• Maintain the status of project activities to update project

progress and manage changes to the schedule baseline to achieve the plan

• Recognize deviations from the plan and take corrective and preventive actions to minimize risk


Any changes to the schedule baseline can

only be approved through the integrated

change control process!!!


Summary

• PLAN the schedule to produce ALL the deliverables within project scope, given available resources

• ELABORATE the schedule as more information becomes known about the project, or as project parameters and constraints change

• CONTROL the schedule to always have an accurate expectation of estimate to complete



Project Quality Management


What is Project Quality Management?

• Processes and activities that determine quality policies, objectives, and responsibilities so that the project will satisfy the needs for which it was undertaken

• PQM works to ensure that the project requirements, including product requirements, are met and validated

– PMI PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition



What is Project Quality Management?

• Processes and activities that determine quality policies, objectives, and responsibilities so that the project will satisfy the needs for which it was undertaken

• PQM works to ensure that the projectrequirements, including productrequirements, are met and validated

– PMI PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition



Key Concepts

• Product Quality vs. Project Quality

– Product Quality: Degree to which the Deliverables meet customer requirements and quality standards. Can be measured and inspected.

– Project Quality: Degree to which the desired Project parameters (Scope, Time, Cost, etc.) are achieved. Can be audited.



Key Concepts

• Product Quality / Project Quality tradeoffs:

– Is it better to meet customer requirements even if it takes twice as long, or to meet the schedule by skipping testing and allowing defects to slip through?



Key Concepts

• Quality vs. grade

– Quality: degree to which the requirements are fulfilled (multiple system/product features)

– Grade: technical characteristics (no obvious defects, readable manual)



Key Concepts

• Quality / Grade tradeoffs:

– Is it better to have a system with many features that has many glitches, or have a stable system with only basic functionality?



Key Principles

• Prevention over Inspection

– Quality should be planned, designed, and built into – not corrected after inspection



Key Principles





Key Principles



• Continuous Improvement

– Product inspections, and project reviews, should be used as the basis for process analysis and consequent improvement



Key Principles



• Continuous Improvement

– Product inspections, and project reviews, should be used as the basis for process analysis and consequent improvement





Initiating Planning

8.1 Plan Quality

Management

Executing

8.2 Manage Quality

Monitoring and

Controlling

8.3 Control Quality

Closing


Plan Quality Management• Identify Quality Standards (project AND product!)







• Identify Quality Requirements









• Document how the project will demonstrate compliance with

– Project Quality Standards

– Project Quality Requirements

– Product Quality Standards

– Product Quality Requirements



Manage Quality• PMBOK 6 definition:

– “the process of translating the quality management plan into executable quality activities that incorporate the organization’s quality policies into the project”

• Meaning: Build the quality in

– Perform quality audits

• Quality Audit is a structured, independent process to determine if project activities comply with organizational and project policies, processes and procedures



Manage Quality• Build the quality in

– “following and meeting standards to assure stakeholders that the final product will meet their needs, expectations, and requirements”




Quality Audit is NOT the same as Inspection!Quality Audit focuses on the PROCESSInspection examines the PRODUCT


Manage Quality• Build the quality in

– “build confidence that a future output will be completed in a manner that meets the specified requirements and expectations”



• Enable continuous improvement

– Analyze results of quality audits and inspections to identify needed improvements; use root cause analysis to develop preventive actions



Control Quality• Verify that the delivered output will meet the requirements

– “…formally demonstrate, with reliable data, that the acceptance criteria have been met”

• Monitor and record results of quality control activities

– Use statistical sampling techniques to choose part of a population of interest for inspection

– Use inspections to examine / measure a work product to determine if it conforms to documented standards

– Use quality tools (7QC Tools) to solve quality related problems



Summary

• PLAN Quality Management so that the right standards are used and the requirements are met

• MANAGE Quality to build the quality in

• CONTROL Quality to meet acceptance criteria


Jonathan Blake, PMP

Senior Director, Global PMO

NTT DATA Inc.

518-229-8961

[email protected]


Documents

Risk Management - NYS Forum Home...• Risk is cultural –risk threshold and risk tolerance • Reacting to a risk could add cost or work activities or impact quality • Risk management