Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #1

Risk Based R&D Plan

Martin Cooper

Los Alamos

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #2

Outline

• The Process• Reevaluation of the Program• Iteration on the Contents• Risk Methodology

• The Plan• Assumptions• Schedule Overview• Risk Overview• Contract Project Manager Actions

• The Schedule Challenge

• News

• Summary

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #3

The Process

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #4

Reevaluation of the Program

• One day of the October collaboration meeting was devoted to reevaluating every part of the R&D plan

• The CPM appointed an advisory committee• Jan Boissevain (Consultant) – Chief Engineer• Bob Golub (NCSU)• Geoff Greene (Tennessee/ORNL)• Mike Hayden (SFU)• Steve Lamoreaux (Yale) – Co-spokesperson

• Committee reported their evaluations individually

• CPM made decisions

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #5

Iteration on Contents

WBS 1.1.2.1 Title 3He relaxation time

Funding Source DOE Constr. Institutions Duke, Illinois

Funding Avail. $20k Opportunity

Goal (Completion Dates): The overall goal is to measure the 3He relaxation time from 0.3-0.6 K to insure that the neutrons and 3He remain polarized throughout the measurement cycle. At 30,000 sec, there is essentially no impact on the sensitivity. Any value greater than the neutron storage time provides a small degradation to the sensitivity. At Duke, the result for a cell coated with dTPB is a subsidiary measurement to the geometric phase measurement. (4/1/07). At Illinois, the measurement is to be made on materials used in the valves and transfer lines as well as dTPB (6/1/07)

Risk Descriptions: Obtaining a value >1000 sec at 0.5K is crucial to having a small impact on the EDM sensitivity. No measurements have been made at the operating temperature. The advisory committee judged this quantity to be the major scientific unknown in the design.

Risk Likelihood Impact Overall Risk

Technical Likely Critical High

Schedule Unlikely Marginal Low

Cost Unlikely Marginal Low

CPM Actions: Support both efforts at Duke and Illinois. The measurement on dTPB is difficult and important enough to warrant duplicate effort. The measurement on materials to be used in the valves is important.

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #6

Risk Methodology

Marginal Significant Critical

Cost

Impact on project contingency is:

<$25K $25-$100K

>$100K

Schedule

Impact on project schedule is:

All else Level 1 or 2 Milestones

Impacts project completion date

Technical

Impact on project performance is:

Optimal specification will be within 20%

Minimal specification will be bettered by 80%

Minimal specification may not be met

Marginal Significant Critical

Cost

Impact on project contingency is:

<$200K $200-$500K

>$500K

Schedule

Impact on project schedule is:

All else Level 1 or 2 Milestones

Impacts project completion date

Technical

Impact on project performance is:

CD-4 will be met and performance will exceed Minimal Specifications

CD-4 will be met and performance will be degraded from Minimal Specifications

CD-4 will not be met

R&D Project

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R&D 12/14/06 #7

Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

Likelihood of

Occurrence

Impact/Consequence

Marginal Significant Critical

Very Likely Medium High High

Likely Low Medium High

Unlikely Low Low Medium

Risk Likelihood

Very Likely >90%

Likely >50% and <90%

Unlikely <50%

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #8

The Plan

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R&D 12/14/06 #9

Assumptions

• Most R&D will be completed by the end of CY’07

• Technical feasibility will be established by the end of CY’07

• Resources will move as needed

• Some small amount of new funding will be found

• The R&D will be evaluated by the impact of all results on the sensitivity of the EDM experiment

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #10

Cost during FY’07

Funding Source* Investment ($k)

DOE Project Funds 300

DOE Operations 40

LDRD 457

Opportunities 90

Total 887

*Only $300k applies to TPC at present

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R&D 12/14/06 #11

Schedule Overview

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R&D 12/14/06 #12

Schedule Overview

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R&D 12/14/06 #13

Risk Overview

Risk Type Risk Number

Technical High 6

Medium 8

Low 6

Schedule High 0

Medium 2

Low 18

Cost High 0

Medium 2

Low 18

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #14

Risk Overview

A high risk subsystem due to unpredictable outcomes of R&D

Risk Name Risk Type Probability Impact Risk

3He Relaxation Time Technical Likely Critical High

Light Collection Technical Likely Critical High

Valve Development Technical Likely Critical High

High Voltage Studies Technical Likely Critical High

4He Evaporative Purification Technical Likely Critical High

3He Injection Technical Likely Critical High

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #15

Contract Project Manager Actions

•Promote duplicate effort on 3He relaxation•Get other institutions to assist in valve development•Search for addition funding for full valve test•Encourage NCSU team not to distract Duke team•Get agreement on magnet uniformity requirement•Search for addition funding for the 3He holding coil•Increase scientific staffing on the HV tests•Redirect engineering and technician efforts to the new cryostat•Get Yale to coordinate the SQUID effort•Get other institutions to assist in the 3He injection test•Decide whether to fund the laser fluorescence work•Withhold funding of the slow controls prototype•Request a set of standards for slow controls

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R&D 12/14/06 #16

The Schedule Challenge

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R&D 12/14/06 #17

HV Test Cryostat

ABS

The New Cryostat

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R&D 12/14/06 #18

“Film Burner”

“Film Burner” pump out

“Cs Region”

Transition Region

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R&D 12/14/06 #19

Tri-coil Helmholtz magnet

Holding Coil

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R&D 12/14/06 #20

NMR pickup coil

Polarized 3He beam

40mm Pyrex O-ring joint

Kapton seal

3He Collection Volume

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #21

Cesium ring

Teflon O-ring to seal Cs when warm

Cs Film Controller

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #22

Heat sink to DR still

Super-fluid film flow

Heat sink to 4K shield

Heat sink to 1 K pot

“Film burner” pump out

Solenoid magnet, Φ4”

The Film Burner

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R&D 12/14/06 #23

.5mm gap to create gas flow impedance

Super-fluid film flow

Knife edge

Film Burner Detail

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R&D 12/14/06 #24

News

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R&D 12/14/06 #25

Storage Time

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Time from Switch Opening (min.)

Co

un

ts in

n D

etec

tor/

min

.

Delay 11

Delay 7

Delay 21

Delay 17

Delay 4

Storage Time

1/Fill Time = Production Rate - Loss Rate

Absorption Time

1/Detector Loss Rate

Storage Time

Measurement Concept

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #26

100 s holding time

Time (s)

Cou

nts

(/s)

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R&D 12/14/06 #27

Results – 300 & 50 K

y = 0.4365e-0.0085x

y = 0.3128e-0.0046x

y = 0.2544e-

0.0042x

y = 0.26125e-

0.01

0.1

1

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

y = 0.4365e-0.0085x

y = 0.3128e-0.0046x

y = 0.2544e-

0.0042x

y = 0.26125e-

0.01

0.1

1

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Delay Time (s)

ln(c

ou

nts

)

230±5 s

110±10 s

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #28

Crazing

Office of Nuclear Physics

R&D 12/14/06 #29

Summary

• The Process• Reevaluation of the Program – No major changes but some

additions where possible in response to the CD-1 review• Risk Methodology – Separate impact evaluation from the main

project

• The Plan• Assumptions – The technical challenges dominate• Schedule Overview – New cryostat is the critical path• Risk Overview – 6 high and 12 medium evaluations out of 60• Contract Project Manager Actions – Working to optimize our

effectiveness

• The Schedule Challenge – The new cryostat is a significant experiment in its own right

• News – Storage time measurement