RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE

AND JUDGEMENT

PAUL DAVIESHSE’s Chief Scientist & Director

Of the Hazardous Installations Directorate

HEALTH AND SAFETY EXECUTIVE

The regulator for health and safety at the workplace, including risk to the public

Wide remit Strong scientific base Highly integrated Annual spend of 15% of total budget on

commissioned S&T (£37m)

H&S REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

Goal setting prescriptive Risk to be As Low as Reasonably

Practicable – ALARP ALARP test Friendly to innovation Continuous improvement

Risk Regulatory Framework

HSE CRITERIA FOR THE TOLERABILITY OF RISK

Unacceptableregion

Tolerableregion

BroadlyAcceptableregion

Negligible risk

Increasin

g risks an

d societal con

cerns

CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK

High

X Tripping accident

Low

Prob

ability

Increasing“Societal concern”

High

X offshore installation explosion

REGULATING H&S RISKS

Routine/lowhazard

Rare/highhazard

Risk Spectrum

PermissiveApproach

PermissionedApproach

Eg Safety Cases

Generic Risk assessment Case Specific Risk Assessment

Compliance + Good Practice/Standards Compliance + ALARP Demonstration

What more could be done?Why is it not being done?

Qualitative + QRA/ASA/SRA

Science & Engineering Judgement

KNOWLEDGE BASED CONTRIBUTIONS

ASA – Advanced Structural Analysis Representation of behaviour Ability to account for deterioration

SRA – Structural Reliability Analysis Examination of uncertainties and

sensitivities Ability to explore failure surface

COMPETENCE BASED REQUIREMENTS

EducationTrainingPeriodical updates to reflect

changing knowledge

INTEGRATING ASA AND SRA

Accurate integrated analysis Realistic structural response Used for reliability based optimum design Leads to efficiency, effectiveness and

safety Reduced weight, cost and time of

construction