Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone

Dangerous hydrological

phenomena in the river mouths and

their relation to synoptic situation

N.I.Alekseevsky, D.V.Magritsky, N.M.Yumina, I.N.Krylenko, D.N.Aibulatov, G.S.Ermakova,E.Antohina

D.Gutchina

Environmental - economic zones of coast (EEZC) of

the European part of Russia

Structure and impact degree of dangerous processes and phenomena depending on features of EEZC

districts

Time scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

Linear scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

Genetic classification of the dangerous hydrological phenomena

List of hydrological data needed to assess the social and economic damages and risks

• Type and coordinates of DHP-occurrence

• Intensity of the dangerous hydrological phenomena (for Damage)

• Duration of dangerous hydrological events and the residual phenomena (for Damage)

• Exposure area

SIFVI=(SSI-3)*(Exposure_area*10)*(IDI*10)SIFVI: social and infrastructure Flood Vulrability Index

SSI: Social Susceptibility Index

IDI: Infrastructure Density Index

• Probability (frequency) of dangerous hydrological events of certain intensity

RISK=f(Probability, Damage)

• Other parameters

Data source for assess and prediction the social and economic damages and risks

1. The Catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena

2. Data of hydrological monitoring on stations and from the satellites

3. Field studies4. Statistic, geographic analysis5. Computer simulation

The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena sections

1. Water object code2. Water object name3. Chronology of DHP4. Type of DHP5. Factors (origin) of DHP6. A brief description of the dangerous hydrological phenomena and events7. Parameters of DHP (3 parts)8. Hydro-meteorological conditions (H, Q, v, t, x)9. The economic and social damage10. Data source

The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena data sources and structure

~760 events:• Inundations – 644• Low water – 83• Seawater intrusions – 13• Others - 20

Comparison of the river mouths on a set and degree of hazard

of DHP

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Kuban river mouth

• Water-flow and ice-jam inundations • Storm surges• Dangerous ice phenomena• Heavy sea• Low water

Structure of inundations for period 100 yrs.Chronology of inundations for period 140 yrs.

Rain and snow-melt floods(autumn-winter)

Summer high water

Spring high water

Flow-water inundations in the Kuban river delta

Repeatability of years Hmax>Hcritical

The mean number of days per year Hmax>Hcritical

1929-1972

1973-2003

The mean depth of flooding of a flood plain

Flood-control system ResultsPrecondition

I. flood-control reservoirs

II. flood-control dams

00 maxmax

t

Ht

Q

000

tH

tz

tR

Q

Ice jams and ice-jam inundations in the Kuban river delta

Ice-jam inundation of winter 2001-2002 yr.

River reaches of ice-jam formation

Frequency of ice jams (1912-2002 yrs.)

Long-term variability of the ice phenomena in the Kuban river delta

The period with ice phenomena

Ice thickness

Cases of Ice jams formation for different periods

Storm surges in the Kuban river mouth

Flood zone and propagation length of backwater in the branches

2

min )/ln(

k

HHl sss

033,05,4 42

ZkQk

m05,010,0min H

Probability curve

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Don river mouth and their long-term variability

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

H, смпост Темрюк-порт

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Neva river mouth

and their long-term variability

• Storm surges (delta)

• Underflooding (delta)

• Ice-snow jam (deltaside river section)

H=200 cm BS

H=500 cm BS

Flood zones

Expedition to the river mouths of Black sea august 2011

Simulation result of flooding of the Terek river delta (model and calculations of V.V.Belikov)

Hydraulic models of water stream movement

1.«Flood» and «River» (V.V.Belikov)2. Mike 11, Mike 21 (Denmark)3. Delft 3D (Netherlands) 4. «HEC-RAS» (USA)5. «TELEMAC» (France)

Hydrological models of runoff formation basin model ECOMAG (author - Motovilov Y.G.)

input data, structure, results

Results of computer simulation

Rкорр2 = 0.82

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

W факт. пол., км³

W с

мод

. пол

., к

м³

2009 г.

2001 г.

2005 г.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Июнь2008

Август2008

Октябрь2008

Декабрь2008

Февраль2009

Апрель2009

Июнь2009

Август2009

Октябрь2009

Декабрь2009

Q, м³/с

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40% ммсмС°

смоделированная влажность почвы, %смоделированная суточная сумма осадком, ммсмоделированные расходы воды, м3/сфактические расходы воды, м3/ссмоделированный запас воды в снеге, cмсмоделированная температура воздуха, С

р. Северная Двина - с. Усть-Пинега

р. Печора - с. Оксино

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Август2003

Октябрь2003

Декабрь2003

Февраль2004

Апрель2004

Июнь2004

Август2004

Октябрь2004

Декабрь2004

Q, м³/с

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40% ммсмС°

смоделированная влажность почвы, %смоделированная суточная сумма осадком, ммсмоделированные расходы воды, м3/сфактические расходы воды, м3/ссмоделированный запас воды в снеге, cмсмоделированная температура воздуха, С

Input:12 Atmosphere-Ocean General

Circulation Models data

Result:Runoff changes

estimation

Calculation:Climate-driven hydrological

model Y = f (T0, P)

The forecast of runoff changes

AOGCMs: CMIP3:CCSM3,

CGCM3.1, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0,

ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MIROC3.2,

MRI-CGCM2.3.2А, PCM, IPSL CM4, MIUB

ECHO G

resolution: 2°×2°

basic period: 1961-1990 yrs.

forecasting period: 2046-2065 yrs.

bEPaYfY clmobs

n

n

n

P

EEE

1

00 1

00 72,6 TE

1)

equation proposed by Mezentsevn – empirical coefficientT0 – sum of positive temperature (ºC)

0T

P

•Y2050, Y2050max,

Y2050min

•Maps of Ky=Y2050/Ybas.period

•Maps of KCv=Cv2050/Cvbas.period

•Probability curves2) GPEPECvCv PEP )]1/()1[()(

)()( IVCvCv PEP PEI 0

IV 1Shrider

nnnnnn IIIIV1/)1(1

Mezentsev ]1[1/(1)1(

0 . 0 1 0 . 0 50 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 5 1 2 5 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 9 5 9 8 9 9 9 9 . 5 9 9 . 89 9 . 9

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

4 0 0

4 5 0

5 0 0

5 5 0

6 0 0

6 5 0

19902050

Minimum value Ky Mean value Ky Maximum value Ky

Me

an

va

lue

KC

v

P,%

The forecast of annual runoff changeof the Severnaya Dvina river

The synoptic situations associated to various origin floods

Thank you for your attention!