Mount Vernon School District

RISK ASSESSMENT

CRUDE OIL SHIPMENTS BY RAIL

THROUGH MOUNT VERNON

FINAL

Kenneth A. Goettel Goettel & Associates Inc.

1732 Arena Drive Davis, CA 95618 (530) 750-0440

July 20, 2016

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the level of risk from crude oil train accidents as quantitatively as possible. The quantitative level of risk to a school or any building from crude oil train accidents, or any natural or anthropogenic hazard, depends on the combination of two independent parameters:

• The probability of hazard events, and

• The expected consequences if hazard events happen. The four major steps in the crude oil train risk assessment are:

• Estimate the probability of a crude oil train derailment in the vicinity of the Madison Elementary School,

• Estimate the probability of a fire, if a derailment occurs, and

• Evaluate the consequences of an oil train fire for the Madison Elementary School.

The national accident rate for all freight trains is 2.31 accidents per 1,000,000 train miles. The accident rate of crude oil trains is estimated to be 0.43 per 1,000,000 train miles, a rate which is substantially lower than that for all freight trains. The lower rate reflects higher safety standards, including lower speed limits and more intensive monitoring of track and rail car conditions. The annual probability of a crude oil accident in the near vicinity of the Madison Elementary School is estimated for 1-mile and 2-mile track locations centered on the track location nearest to the school. These annual probabilities are estimated to be between 0.0040% and 0.0132% for the range of annual number of crude oil trains and the two track lengths considered. The annual probability of crude oil train accidents which involve fire are estimated to be 40% lower than the overall accident rate, because only about 60% of reported crude oil train accidents have involved fires. For the Madison Elementary School, the key question is whether or not the thermal radiation form a major crude oil fire near the tracks is high enough at the campus to pose life safety risk for people or to ignite fires on the campus. The basis of these calculations is documented in a separate document (Radiant Heat Exposure Technical Memo.pdf). The thermal radiation calculations yield an estimate of the outdoor exposure from a very large crude oil fire at the closest location to the school for the building at the Madison Campus that is closest to the track and closest to the possible ponding area for crude oil of approximately 0.2 kW/m2 (kilowatts per square meter).

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For comparison, the thermal radiation from the sun at noon in the summer is approximately 1.2 kW/m2. Thus, a crude oil fire of the maximum size, which added thermal exposure of no more than 0.2 kW/m2 outdoor at the Madison Elementary School Campus would be felt only as a moderate warming above that from the sun.

With this level of thermal radiation exposure from the maximum crude oil fire event, the risk of minor injury for a person outdoors for an extended time period is minimal. The risk of even minor injury for persons indoors is nil and the risk of death for persons indoor or outdoor is nil.

There is also no risk of fire at the school, because the thermal radiation level is less than 2% of that necessary to cause ignition to wood with long duration exposure.

Overall, the risk to the people or the facilities on the Madison Elementary School campus from crude oil fires near the railroad tracks is essentially nil because of the distance between the railroad track and the school and the difference in elevation between railroad track and the school. The elevation of the school, about 100 feet higher than the tracks, has two important effects: a crude oil spill cannot flow near the school and the radiant heat from a crude oil fire is reduced at the school location.

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1.0 Purpose of This Risk Assessment The Mount Vernon District is in the planning stage of evaluating the possible replacement of the existing Madison Elementary School with a new school on the same site. The Madison Elementary site on Fir Street is relatively close to the railroad tracks than run through Mount Vernon. Some citizens have expressed concern about possible safety risks at the Madison Elementary site from accidents involving trains carrying crude oil. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the level of risk from crude oil train accidents as quantitatively as possible. For reference, the risk assessment also compares the risk from crude oil trains to other risks, including those posed by natural hazards and transportation-related risks for the current Madison Elementary site vs. the possible Swan Road site. The four major steps in the risk assessment are:

• Estimate the probability of a crude oil train derailment in the vicinity of the Madison Elementary School,

• Estimate the probability of a fire, if a derailment occurs, and

• Evaluate the consequences of an oil train fire for the Madison Elementary School,

2.0 Background Information The Madison Elementary School is located approximately 1,460 feet from the nearest part of the railroad track. Figures 1 and 2 on the following pages show the Madison Elementary campus, the location of the railroad track and the two locations of railroad street crossings. The northwest corner of Madison Elementary School is the closest part of the school to the railroad track and is located at the following approximate distances to the railroad track and the railroad crossings on Riverside Drive and E. College Way:

• Nearest track location – 1,460 feet, about 0.28 miles,

• Riverside Drive crossing – 1,600 feet, about 0.30 miles, and

• E. College Way crossing – 2,625 feet, about 0.50 miles.

The elevation of the railroad track is approximately 30 feet. The at-grade elevation of the Madison Elementary School is approximately 130 feet. Thus, the school buildings are approximately 100 feet above the elevation of the railroad track.

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Figure 1 Google Earth Image of Madison Elementary School and Vicinity

Railroad Track

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Figure 2 Google Map Showing Rail Street Crossings

The orange stars show the locations of the railroad crossings on Riverside Drive and E. College Way, which are approximately 0.3 miles and 0.5 miles, respectively, from Madison Elementary School’s northwest corner, which is the nearest part of the school to the railroad tracks. The rail sidings shown in the map are very lightly used, approximately once per month and the crude oil trains travel only on the main line. The blue line in the figure above is a drainage channel that flows towards the southwest, though a large diameter culvert under Riverside Drive and then towards the Skagit River to the west. The general drainage flow from the vicinity of the railroad line is to the southwest, towards the Skagit River.

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3.0 Freight Train Accident Statistics 3.1 National Freight Train Data Freight train accident statistics are compiled by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), Office of Safety Analysis. Figure 3 shows the historical trend in train accidents per 1,000,000 train miles from 1980 to 2014.

Figure 3 Historical Freight Train Accident Data

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1 Moving Crude Oil Safely by Rail, Association of American Railroads,

July 2015.

For 2014, the national freight train accident rate was approximately 2.31 per 1,000,000 train miles. Of the train accidents, approximately 70% are derailments, 7% are collisions and 23% are other (apparently mostly injuries to railroad workers). FRA’s criteria for reportable accidents are “all accidents and incidents resulting in injury or death to an individual or damage to equipment or a roadbed arising from the carrier’s operations” (FRA Guide for Preparing Accident/Incident Reports). The damage threshold for reporting was $8,500 in 2008 and has been gradually increased over time. In 2014 through 2016, the reporting threshold has been $10,500. The relatively low damage threshold for reporting means that the accident totals shown above include many relatively minor accidents.

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FRA data on train accident deaths from 1999 to 2010 (latest data on the FRA website) shows an average of 12 deaths per year. The national data for all freight train accidents is based on over 800 million freight train miles per year and thus provides a robust statistical picture of the overall freight train accident rate. 3.2 Crude Oil Train Data: Overview Crude oil shipments by train to Washington State originate from the Williston Basin in North Dakota and adjacent states and from oil sands in Alberta, Canada. Figure 4 shows the two shipment routes to Washington State.

Figure 4 Crude Oil by Rail Routes to Washington

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1 U.S. Rail Crude Oil Traffic, Association of American Railroads, November,

2015 from data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The crude oil train shipments to Washington terminate at four refineries in the general vicinity of Mount Vernon that produce fuels and other oil-based products:

• BP Cherry Point Refinery,

• Phillips 66 Ferndale Refinery,

• Tesaro Anacortes Refinery, and

• Shell Puget Sound Refinery.

The locations of these refineries is shown in Figure 5 on the following page, which also shows crude oil transport by other modes, including pipelines and vessels from the Department of Ecology’s Washington State 2014 Marine and Rail Oil Transportation Study (March 1, 2015).

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Figure 5 Crude Oil Shipments into Washington State

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Crude oil shipments from Williston Basin in North Dakota and adjacent states is the source of “Bakken” crude oil and shipments from here constitute about 85% of the total US shipments of crude oil by train. Most of the balance is from oil sands in Alberta.

Figure 6 Rail Shipments of Crude Oil from the Williston Basin

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(Barrels Per Day)

1 U.S. Rail Crude Oil Traffic, Association of American Railroads, November 2015.

Figure 7

Total Crude Oil Shipments by Rail: Historical Trend

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The future volume of crude oil shipped by rail in the United States is very difficult to predict because future production of oil in the Williston Basin depends on the oil price vs. the price of natural gas and other fuels and on a host of other complex market conditions. The decrease in shipments since the 2014 peak may or may not continue. 3.3. Crude Oil Train Accident Data The most relevant crude oil train accident data are the data beginning in 2013 when the volume of crude oil shipments has been roughly comparable to the recent volume of crude oil rail shipments. The Department of Ecology Study (2015) lists 16 crude oil train accidents for 2013, 2014 and the first two months of 2015. Data on later crude oil train accidents don’t appear to be available on the FRA website. Data on crude oil train accidents for 2015 and 2016 (through mid-June) were compiled from Google searches. These data are believed to be complete for major accidents, but may not be 100% complete for minor accidents without fires or without spills.

Table 1 Oil Train Accident Data for the United States and Canada: 2013 to Date

(3.5 Year Time Period)

As shown above, there have been 23 oil train accidents since the beginning of 2013 with 14 of these accidents resulting in fires and 9 accidents without fires. Only one of these accidents resulted in reported injuries or deaths – the 2013 Lac-Megantic accident in Quebec which resulted in 47 deaths. Details of the Lac-Megantic accident are summarized the Appendix section. In the United States, there have been 16 accidents with 9 of these resulting in fires and 7 accidents without fires. That is about 56% of the US crude oil train accidents resulted in fires. None of these accidents resulted in reported injuries or deaths. To compare the accident rate for crude oil trains with the overall accident rate for freight trains, as discussed on page 4, it is necessary to estimate the number of train miles traveled by oil trains, because the freight train accident data are expressed as accidents per 1,000,000 train miles. Figure 8 on the following page shows quarterly data on the number of terminated (delivered) carloads of crude oil for several years.

AccidentsTrain

Accidents

Accidents

Rate Per Year

Accidents

with Fire

Accidents

Without Fire

Accidents With

Injuries or Deaths

Accidents Without

Injuries or Deaths

Total Accidents 23 6.57 14 9 1 22

Canada 7 2.00 6 1 1 1

United States 16 4.57 9 7 0 0

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Figure 8

Terminated (Delivered) Carloads of Crude Oil

Based on the data above and the historical data shown previously in Figure 7, the recent average number of carloads of crude oil delivered by rail is approximately 450,000 to 500,000 per year. For the risk assessment, we use the lower end of the range, 450,000 carloads per year because this yields a higher estimate of the oil train accident rate per 1,000,000 train miles As outlined below, fewer carloads means a lower estimate of the number oil train trips and the total crude oil train miles per year. Thus, the estimated oil train accident rate is higher – fewer train miles for the defined number of accidents in Table 1. This conservatism is deliberate. For decision making the best available estimate of the oil train accident rate is desired, but it is better to error on the side over somewhat overestimating the accident rate rather than to underestimate the accident rate. If 100% of the oil trains were unit trains with 100 oil tank cars, and no other cars, then the 450,000 carloads per year would correspond to 4,500 oil train trips per year. However, this is a substantial underestimate of the number of train trips because while there are many unit trains, some of them carry less than 100 cars and there are also many crude oil shipments on mixed trains carrying crude oil and other freight cargo. Data for the first quarter of 2015 (U.S. Rail Crude Oil Traffic Data, Association of American Railroads, November 2015) shows the distribution of crude oil shipments:

• 87% of rail crude oil movements were in blocks of 20 or more cars, and

• 78% of rail crude movements were in blocks of 50 or more cars.

The estimated number of oil train trips per year in the United States is estimated via the calculations shown in Table 2.

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Table 2

Estimated Number of Oil Train Trips per Year in the United States

The four categories of blocks of tank cars are from the data at the bottom of the previous page that include:

• 13% less than blocks of 20 tank cars,

• 9% between blocks of 20 and 50 tank cars,

• 78% in blocks of 50 or more tank cars,

o 33% between 50 and 80 tank cars,

o 50% between 80 and 120 tank cars.

The high percentage of blocks between 80 and 120 tank cars reflects the common use of unit trains (crude oil only) with approximately 100 cars. The estimate of 6,148 crude oil train trips (origin to destination) reflects the above distribution of block sizes and was set to match the previous estimate of approximately 450,000 carloads of crude oil shipped by rail per year.

The next step in the risk calculation is to estimate the number of crude oil train miles traveled per year. The travel distances and estimated percentage of trips are based on the information shown previously in Figure 4. Distances are from Williston North Dakota to locations that are “typical” for shipments to the northeast, gulf coast and Washington.

Table 3 Estimated Number of Crude Oil Train Miles per Year

Blocks of Tank

Cars

Average Block

Size Estimate

Percent of Total

Oil Train Trips

Train Trips

Per Year

Carloads

Delivered

<20 15 13% 799 11,989

20 to 50 35 9% 553 19,366

50 to 80 70 33% 2,029 142,019

80 to 120 100 45% 2,767 276,660

100% 6,148 450,034Totals

Destinations

Travel

Distance

(Miles)

Estimated Percentage

of Trips

Estimated

Number of Trips

Estimated Annual

Train Miles

New York 1825 70% 4,304 7,854,070

New Orleans 1826 15% 922 1,683,937

Mount Vernon1 1110 15% 922 1,023,642

Totals 6,148 10,561,649

1 Approximate average distance to 4 refineries in Washington.

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The estimated percentages for the three destinations shown in Table 3 also include other destinations shown in Figure 4, with approximately the same travel distances. Travel distances are from Google maps for road travel. Train travel distances are assumed to be similar to road travel distances.

The following results are drawn from the previous tables:

• For crude oil trains in the United States for the 3.5 year time period including 2013, 2013, 2015 and half of 2016, the 16 reported accidents corresponds to an average of approximately 0.43 accidents per 1,000,000 train miles.

• The accident rate for crude oil trains per 1,000,000 train miles is approximately 18.73% of that for freight trains of all type: 0.43 for crude oil trains vs. 2.31 for all freight trains (per Figure 3 and accompanying text).

4.0 Risk Assessment: Oil Trains Passing Through Mount Vernon

The quantitative level of risk to a school or any building or infrastructure for any natural or anthropogenic hazard depends on the combination of two independent parameters:

• The probability of hazard events, and

• The expected consequences if hazard events happen.

The figure below illustrates the above principles.

Figure 9 Probability – Consequence Graphic

All of the combinations of probability and consequences can occur, including both extremes.

• An extremely frequent very high probability hazard event may be completely negligible if the consequences are very minor or nil.

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• Conversely, a very infrequent very low probability event may be unacceptable and thus become a very high priority for mitigation measures to reduce or eliminate the threat.

As an example, a tsunami with an average return period of 500 years (0.2% chance of occurring in any given year) may pose a very minor risk if the only consequences are minor property damages.

On the other hand, the same tsunami in a different location where the expected consequences are the deaths of several hundred people would pose a very high risk, with mitigation being a high priority.

4.1 Probability of Crude Oil Train Accidents in the Immediate Vicinity of the Madison Elementary School Campus

BNSF runs between 11 and 18 crude oil trains per week through Skagit County. The corresponding number train miles per year for these frequencies and for the midpoint of the BNSF range are shown below, along with the annual probabilities of oil train accidents on one-mile and 2-mile track segments centered on the nearest track location to the Madison Elementary School.

Table 4 Annual Probabilities of Oil Train Accidents in the Vicinity of the Madison Elementary School

As shown above, the annual chances of oil train accidents near the school during school hours range from about 4 in 100,000 (0.0000404) to about 1.3 in 10,000 (0.0001323). These low and high estimates are highlighted in yellow in the table above.

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track 1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track 1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 572 1,144 0.0002460 0.0004919 0.0000404 0.0000809

14.5 1 754 754 1,508 0.0003242 0.0006484 0.0000533 0.0001066

18 936 936 1,872 0.0004025 0.0008050 0.0000662 0.0001323

1 Mid-Point of BNSF Crude Oil Train frequency.

4 Annual probabilities of Oil Train Accidents during school hours: 8 hours per day, 180

days per year.

Annual Probability of Oil Train

Accident3

2 1 and 2 miles of track represent accidents within 0.5 mile and 1.0 mile, respectively, of

the track location nearest to the Madison Elementary School.

3 Annual probabilities of Oil Train Accidents are calculated from the average crude oil

train accident rate of 0.43 per 1,000,000 train miles.

Annual Probability of Oil Train

Accident During School Hours4Trains

Per Week

Trains

Per Year

Oil Train Miles Per Year2

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The annual probabilities of crude oil train accidents shown in Table 4 can also be expressed as the percent chance of occurring in any year. These results are shown below in Table 5.

Table 5 Percent Chance Each Year

Crude Oil Train Accident in the Vicinity of the Madison Elementary School

Another way to represent the probabilities of crude oil train accidents in the vicinity is to express the probability as a return period. For example, a return period of 100 years for a flood means that on average such a flood occurs once every 100 years. Equivalently, a 100-year flood has a 1% chance of occurring every year.

Table 6 Estimated Return Periods (Years)

Crude Oil Train Accident in the Vicinity of the Madison Elementary School

One final way to express the probabilities of crude oil train accidents is the chance of an accident over the next 50 years. These results are shown below in Table 7.

Table 7 Percent Chance in 50 Years

Crude Oil Train Accident in the Vicinity of the Madison Elementary School

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 0.0040% 0.0081%

14.5 754 0.0053% 0.0107%

18 936 0.0066% 0.0132%

Annual Chance of Oil Train

Accident During School HoursTrains Per Week Trains Per Year

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 24,733 12,367

14.5 754 18,763 9,381

18 936 15,115 7,557

Return Period (Years) of Oil Train

Accident During School HoursTrains Per Week Trains Per Year

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 0.2022% 0.4043%

14.5 754 0.2665% 0.5330%

18 936 0.3308% 0.6616%

Chance of Oil Train Accident

During School Hours in 50 YearsTrains Per Week Trains Per Year

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Tables 5, 6, and 7 on the previous page are the estimated probabilities of crude oil train accidents of all types in the vicinity of the Madison Elementary School. Accidents that don’t involve releases or the involve releases without fire pose no risk to the Madison Elementary School. A more meaningful measure is the probability of a crude oil train accident with subsequent fire. As shown previously in Table 1, about 56% of accidents have involved fire. The tables below are estimated probabilities of accidents with fire, using a rounded up value of 60% of accidents involving fires.

Table 8 Percent Chance Each Year

Crude Oil Train Accident With Fire in the Vicinity of Madison Elementary School

Table 9 Estimated Return Period (Years)

Crude Oil Train Accident With Fire in the Vicinity of Madison Elementary School

Table 10 Percent Chance in 50 Years

Crude Oil Train Accident With Fire in the Vicinity of Madison Elementary School

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 0.0024% 0.0049%

14.5 754 0.0032% 0.0064%

18 936 0.0040% 0.0079%

Trains Per Week Trains Per Year

Annual Chance of Oil Train

Accident With Fire

During School Hours

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 41,222 20,611

14.5 754 31,272 15,636

18 936 25,191 12,596

Trains Per Week Trains Per Year

Return Period (Years) of Oil Train

Accident With Fire

During School Hours

1 Mile of Track 2 Miles of Track

11 572 0.1213% 0.2426%

14.5 754 0.1599% 0.3198%

18 936 0.1985% 0.3970%

Trains Per Week Trains Per Year

Chance of Oil Train Accident

With Fire During School Hours

in 50 Years

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4.2 Potential Consequences of Crude Oil Train Accident with Fire in the Vicinity of Madison Elementary School

As shown in the tables on the previous pages, the probability of a crude oil train accident near the Madison Elementary School campus is very low. As discussed previously - See Figure 9 – the level of risk depends not only on the probability of an accident but also the potential consequences if an accident does occur.

The technical details of the calculations and data summarized below are provided in a separate report: Radiant Heat Exposure Technical Memo.. The issue is whether or not the thermal radiation from a very large crude oil fire is high enough to pose health risks to people or to ignite flammable materials at the school. As with any fire, the intensity of thermal radiation decreases substantially with increasing distance from the fire.

The calculations consider the elevation difference between the school and the potential ponding area, which is about 115 feet lower than the school at grade elevation. Thermal radiation from a crude oil fire can reach the school only by line of sight. Therefore, thermal radiation from the lowest 115 feet of the fire cannot reach the school.

The risk assessment below is an extreme worst case scenario, which considers:

• The worst case accident, a derailment of dozens of tank cars with tank car failures and subsequent fire,

• Accident very near the closest distance between the railroad track and the school,

• School location assumed to be the building closest to the track, which is a shorter distance than the main campus buildings (see Figure 1),

• Ponding of crude oil in the lowest elevation area near the Kulshan Trail (see Figure 2) east of the railroad track with a diameter of 300 feet

• Ignoring the likelihood that the local drainage, including large channels and a large diameter (about 5 feet) culvert under the tracks, moves most of the spilled crude oil away from the school and away from the possible ponding area,

• The emissivity of burning crude oil is at the extreme high end of the estimated range of 20 kW/m2 to 60 kW/m2 (kilowatts per square meter), based on the emissivities of fuels between fuel oil and gasoline,

• The flame height of about 180 meters is the maximum possible for a ponding area with a diameter of 300 feet (about 90 meters).

The thermal radiation calculations yield an estimate of the outdoor exposure from a very large crude oil fire at the closest location to the school for the building at the Madison Campus that is closest to the track and closest to the possible ponding area for crude oil of approximately 0.2 kW/m2 (kilowatts per square meter).

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For comparison, the thermal radiation from the sun at noon in the summer is approximately 1.2 kW/m2. Thus, a crude oil fire of the maximum size, which added thermal exposure of no more than 0.2 kW/m2 outdoor at the Madison Elementary School campus would be felt only as a moderate warming above that from the sun.

With this level of thermal radiation exposure from the maximum crude oil fire event, the risk of minor injury for a person outdoors for an extended time period is minimal. The risk of even minor injury for persons indoors is nil and the risk of death for persons indoor or outdoor is nil.

There is also no risk of fire at the school, because the thermal radiation level is less than 2% of that necessary to cause ignition to wood with long duration exposure.

Overall, the risk to the people or the facilities on the Madison Elementary School campus from crude oil fires near the railroad tracks is essentially nil because of the distance between the railroad track and the school and the elevation difference between the track and the school. The elevation of the school, about 100 feet higher than the tracks, has two important effects: a crude oil spill cannot flow near the school and the radiant heat from a crude oil fire is reduced at the school location.

4.3 Other Risks to the Madison Elementary School Campus from Crude Oil Train Accidents

In addition to the risks from fires, which were addressed above, there are potential risk from spills without fire, smoke from fires and possible explosions.

Spills Without Fires

Accidents that result in release of crude oil have environmental impacts on the affected area, including downstream effects if oil enters stormwater drainage systems that convey water to streams, rivers or lakes. These effects may be significant for affected location.

However, because the campus at-grade elevation is approximately 100 feet above the track elevation and approximately 115 feet above the area of potential ponding of spilled crude oil, the environmental risk at the Madison Elementary School campus is nil.

Smoke From Fires

Crude oil fires generate large quantities of smoke which is toxic and can be harmful to humans in close proximity to the smoke plume. For the campus, which is approximately 1,300 feet from the closest area of potential fire and smoke emissions, the risk is minor.

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Shelter in place would provide substantial protection, until evacuation to a designated emergency shelter or, more likely, to homes.

Possible Explosions

Crude oil, including Bakken crude oil is a highly inflammable liquid, but it is not classified as an explosive per the industry standard Emergency Response Guidebook. Oil tank cars subject to heat from nearby crude oil fires, can fail suddenly with a burst of released pressure. These “explosions” are minor compared to explosions of large quantities of explosive materials, and the Madison Elementary School campus is too far away from the tracks to feel the effects of such failure, other than to perhaps hear a loud noise.

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Appendix

Lac-Megantic Crude Oil Train Accident

The Lac-Megantic crude oil train accident in Quebec occurred on July 6, 2013. The accident occurred when the train was parked on a siding for the night and the brakes failed. The train rolled downhill, reaching speeds of about 65 mph and then derailed. The train had 72 cars of crude oil, all of which were the older Class 111 tank cars. 63 of the cars derailed and most the derailed cars ruptured from the derailment or the resulting fire. Approximately 6 million liters of crude oil (1.58 million gallons) burned.

The track in the immediate vicinity of the derailment was maintained for a maximum speed of 15 mph. The operating speed limit was 10 mph. The derailment, which occurred at the point of maximum horizontal curvature in the track, occurred because the uncontrolled, unmanned train reached a speed of about 65 mph. Under controlled, normal operating speeds, the likelihood of derailment would have been essentially nil.

During the accident, release of crude oil was predominantly from the severe physical damage to the tank cars, arising from the exceptionally high speed at which the accident occurred. Many of the damage tank cars had multiple failures as shown in Table A-1 below.

Table A-1 Damage to Tank Car Shells

As shown above, 4 tank cars had thermal tears. The length of the thermal tears ranged from 1.6 meters to 4.4 meters. Thermal tears occurred when the steel softened from the high temperatures in the fire and then tore from the tank’s internal pressure. No fragments of tank material were separated from these tank cars as a result of the thermal tears.

Debris from damaged tank cars was found only in the immediate vicinity of the derailment. There were no reports of any pieces of the tank cars being projected away from the immediate vicinity of the derailment.

Damage CategoriesNumber

of Tank Cars

Tank car shells 37

Tank care heads 31

Top fittings and protective housings 20

Pressure release devices 12

Bottom outlet valves 7

Thermal tears 4

Manway covers 2

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The following figure shows the immediate aftermath of the Lac-Megantic fire.

Figure A-1 Lac Megantic Post-Fire Photograph

As shown above, an approximately 3 block by 3 block part of downtown Lac Megantic to the right and above the derailed cars burned, along with a smaller area below the derailed cars.

The fire in Lac Megantic spread very quickly because the spilled oil flowed downhill towards the lake and flowed into the stormwater drainage system and into basements. Newspaper reports and other anecdotal reports often mentioned fires and explosions. The fire was severe and bursts of “fire balls” occurred during the fire, but the technical evidence does not indicate that there were explosions:

• Crude oil, including Bakken crude oil is highly flammable and contains volatile gases as well as oil fluids, but it is not explosive in the sense that it doesn’t detonate like commercial or military explosives or some combinations of chemicals.

• The post-event analysis of tank cars and other debris from the derailment did not find any reports of pieces of tank cars being projected aware from the immediate vicinity and the analysis of the 4 tanks cars that suffered thermal tears indicated that no fragments of tank material were separated from these tank cars.

• None of the post-event reports document projectile damage to the unburned buildings immediately adjacent to derailed cars or burned buildings.

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The anecdotal reports “explosions” appear to be misunderstandings. When the cars with thermal tears ruptured there may have been a loud noise and an increase in the size of the fire. Similarly, the size/intensity of the fire may have periodically increased as tank cars ruptured from other causes. The damage pattern shown on the previous page is also informative:

• Most of the fire damage was in the area where the oil flowed downhill towards the lake, including through stormwater drains and into building basements.

• The fire damage is very localized.

• Trees in close proximity to the burned buildings show only minor fire damage or none. None of the trees more than about one block from the fire boundaries show any visible burn damage.

These observations indicate that, despite the large pools of burning oil and the severity of the fire, the level of thermal radiation was too low to ignite other buildings or trees quite near the burned area. That is, trees and buildings only a block or less from the burned area show little or no burn damage. Fires from crude oil spills can certainly be very severe, but the evidence from the Lac-Megantic fire – by far the most severe crude oil train accident and fire – indicates that explosions from such fires aren’t a significant risk. The information summarized above was taken from the report by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, Railway Investigation Report R13D0054 and from news reports.