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Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport. 1. Background. ICAO SARPs - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)lZurich-Airport
Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport
Daniel BircherSafety Officer
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20072 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
1. Background
ICAO SARPs
According to ICAO Annex 14, 9.2.2 where an aerodrome is located close to water/swamp areas, or difficult terrain, and where a significant portion of approach or departure operations takes place over these areas, specialist rescue services and fire fighting equipment appropriate to the hazard and risk shall be available
Situation ZRH
1. Zürich airport does not fulfill the ICAO requirements
2. A safety assessment/aeronautical study has been conducted (by Ernst Basler + Partner AG) focussing on the following questions:
• What is the risk of an aircraft crash or a veer-off into the swampy area between RWY 14/32 and 16/34 at Zürich airport?
• Identification of potential mitigation measures (equipment, infrastructure, procedures)
• Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed measures
• Cost-effectiveness of measures
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20073 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Standards and Recommended Practises
u.a. Cost-benefit considerations
Existing was Approved
Classification
Safety **assessment
Safety Case **
Compliance Checklist
Remove Hazard
ALARP* ?
Minor
Non-Conformities identified
Document background(historical basis)
Major
Significant
Mitigate
ALARP* ?No
Yes
Yes
No
Co-ordinated by FOCA
Responsibility Airport
Up
dat
e
** Co-operation with ANSP, if necessary* ALARP: As low as reasonably practical
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20074 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
The Area I
Natural reserve !!
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20075 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
The Area II
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20076 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Difficult Access
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20077 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Risk-based Approaches
Evaluate Measures
Scenarios
Probability Impact / Damage
Determine Risk
Risk Appraisal Criteria
Hazard identification
Risk anaylsis
Risk Appraisal
Risk Mitigation
System Definition
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20078 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Accident Analysis I: Probability
Assumptions• 1980-2005
• A/C >15 pax
• 330 accidents (RWY excursions, CFIT, loss of control, with/ without fires)
• Within 1250m from Threshold
• Within 750m from each RWY edge
Accident rates• 1.7 x 10-7 per take-off movement
• 6.4 x 10-7 per landing movement
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20079 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Accident Analysis II: Impact
Class Fatalities Damage/Impact in CHF
I 0 O
II 3 30 Million
III 10 100 Million
IV 30 300 Million
V 100 1‘000 Million
VI 300 3‘000 Million
Willingness-to pay: 10 Mio. CHF per life saved
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200710 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Collective Risk
R= movements (per year) x accident rate x probability of being in swamp x impact x value per life saved
„Risk equals the expected damage per year for a defined scenario“
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200711 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Risk assessment
Probability*
0.0023 Events / year (re-occurrence period of 440 years). The probability of an accident at ZRH within the swampy area is expected to be 1.7 * 10-8 per movement (approach or take-off).
Risk
0.012 casualties / year and a monetarized risk of CHF 121'000.-- / year.
* All events within the swampy area at ZRH (3.8% of all excursions, veer offs) including a fire and at least a partial hull loss
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200712 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Thorough evaluation of 32 measures
Special means of transportationOrganisational measures
Infrastructure-related measures Equipment
Spectrum of measures
05.09.2007 - v2
Evaluation of effects of measure on:• improved accessability for crash fire tenders• improved accessability for other F&R means• evacuation of passengers/crew• transportation of passengers/crew out of crash site
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200713 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Risk mitigation measures
Selected Measures
1. Ungraveld road into parts of the swampy area
2. Footpath into the swampy area
3. Special vehicule to transport water/exinguishing agents
4. Special vehicule to transport water hoses
5. Transportable foldable mat to enable access for crash tenders
6. Rafts for adjacent pond
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200714 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Results I
Effectivenes of measures between -0.1% and -20% reduction of probability (outbrake of fire) and impact (confining fire, fast rescue of pax)
risk reduction between CHF 5‘000.- and CHF 13.- per year
cost of measures between CHF 470‘000.- and CHF 3‘700.- per year
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200715 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Results II
Meaning:
- Annual cost of this safety measure is 286 CHF- The annual risk reduction is 1 CHF
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200716 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Results III
• None of the identified measures has a reasonable cost-benefit ratio measures ineffective
• According to the ALARP* principle, the risks are acceptable
• Swiss Civil Aviation Authority (FOCA) has accepted the study as a basis for showing compliance with the corresponding ICAO SARP
• FOCA has requested Unique (Zurich airport) to take the following actions– gather refined data on ground resistance and accessability of area– examine/evaluate accessability of area– perform F&R exercises in the area
*As Low As Reasonably Practicable
ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200717 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l
Thank you for you attention !