Rigorous Math Matters!e3alliance.org/.../2017/07/Rigorous_Math_Matters_E3... · II. Postsecondary Success by Highest Math in High School III. Middle School Math Acceleration and Outcomes

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Rigorous Math Matters!6/27/17

Supported By:

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Introduction

Christine Bailie, M.P.AffDeputy Director, P-16 Strategic Initiatives

E3 Alliance

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Agenda

I. Pipeline Imperative

II. Postsecondary Success by Highest Math in High School

III. Middle School Math Acceleration and Outcomes

IV. Intersection of District Policies and College & Career Readiness

V. Panel Presentation: Central Texas Case Study

VI. Regional Priorities Across the State

3

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Texas Mandates 60% of Young Adults with College Degree by 2030, But…

38%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Texas Young Adultswith Postsecondary

Credential

60x30TX Objective

Postsecondary Completion Rates

4Objective: 60% of Young Adults, Ages 24-25, Have Postsecondary CredentialSource: THECB report http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/6584.PDF

© 2017 E3 Alliance

In 2017, We Are Far From That Goal

38%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Texas Young Adultswith Postsecondary

Credential

60x30TX Objective

Postsecondary Completion Rates

5Objective: 60% of Young Adults, Ages 24-25, Have Postsecondary CredentialSource: THECB report http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/6584.PDF

To meet 60x30TX goal, we have to do

something radically different in the

pipeline!

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Texas HS Graduation Policy Takes 2 Steps Back…

1997-98 3 years mathAlgebra 1 and

Geometry required

2004-05 3 years math Algebra 2 required

2007-08 4 years of math

Algebra 2 required

2013-14 3 years mathAlgebra 2

required only for Distinguished or

STEM6

HB5

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Statewide Mathematics Analysis

Amy Wiseman, Ph.D.Director of Research Studies

E3 Alliance

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Highest Math in High School

Equity Gap in Advanced Math Course Taking

8

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Definition of Highest Math in High School

Algebra I

Geometry

Algebra II

PreCalculus

AP / IB / Dual Credit

9

5 Years of Math!For students ready for Algebra in MS

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Higher Proportion of 2009 Cohort had PreCalculus as Highest Math Passed

22%

29%

33%

40%

32%

20%

13%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2009

2004 < Algebra II

Algebra II

PreCalculus

AP Math*

*Calc or Stats

% of Students by Highest Math Passed in High School, Texas 9th Grade Cohorts

% of Students in High School for 4 YearsSource: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

10

© 2017 E3 Alliance


22%

29%

33%

40%

32%

20%

13%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2009

2004 < Algebra II

Algebra II

PreCalculus

AP Math*

*Calc or Stats



11

© 2017 E3 Alliance


22%

29%

33%

40%

32%

20%

13%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2009

2004 < Algebra II

Algebra II

PreCalculus

AP Math*

*Calc or Stats



Pre “4x4” Legislation

Post “4x4” Legislation

12

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Much Larger Share of Non-Low Income Students Mastered PreCalculus or Above

14%

28%

30%

36%

36%

29%

20%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Non-lowIncome

LowIncome

< Algebra II

Algebra II

PreCalculus

AP Math*

*Calc or Stats

Percent of Students by Highest Math Passed in High School,Texas 2009 9th Grade Cohort


20 Percentage pts

13

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Postsecondary Success by Highest Math in High School

More Advanced Math in High School Helps Mitigate Equity Gap

14

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Students Who Complete PreCalculus or Higher Are More Likely to Enroll in College

15

32%

55%

71%78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

< Algebra II Algebra II PreCalc AP Math*

% o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

es

Highest Math Passed in High School

Higher Education Enrollment Rates of Graduates by Highest Math,Texas 2009 First Time 9th Grade Cohort

*Calc or Stats

Twice as likely to ENROLL

compared to Algebra II

Odds ratios take into account demographics & prior achievement; 2004 cohortSource: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

© 2017 E3 Alliance

3 in 4 Higher Ed Enrollees with AP for Highest Math Completed

16

16%

32%

55%

75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

< Algebra II Algebra II PreCalculus AP, IB, or Dual Credit

% o

f Hig

her E

duca

tion

Enro

llees

Highest Math Passed in High School

Texas Higher Education Enrollees’ 6 Year Completion Rates by Highest Math, Texas 2006 First Time 9th Grade Cohort

Calculus 3X more likely to COMPLETE Higher Ed

than Algebra II

Odds ratios take into account demographics & prior achievement; 2004 cohortSource: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Gaps in Higher Education Outcome Rates by Highest Math

17

92%

56%

40%

18%

2%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Graduate HighSchool on Time

Enroll in HigherEd in TX

Persist in HigherEd 2nd Yr

Complete HigherEd in 6 Yrs

Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs

AP, IB or Dual Credit MathPreCalculusAlgebra II

Highest High School Math

Outcomes of Students in HS for 4 Years, Texas 2006 First Time 9th Grade Cohort

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

© 2017 E3 Alliance


18

99%

77%

66%

42%

7%

92%

56%

40%

18%

2%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs





© 2017 E3 Alliance


19

80%75%

60%

20%

99%

77%

66%

42%

7%

92%

56%

40%

18%

2%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs





Does Not IncludeEnrollment

Out-of-State

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Large Gaps for Low Income Students in Higher Ed Outcomes Rates by Highest Math

20

83%74%

52%

15%

99%

73%

58%

31%

5%

89%

48%

31%

12%1%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs



Outcomes of Low Income Students in HS for 4 YearsTexas 2006 First Time 9th Grade Cohort


© 2017 E3 Alliance

Low Income Student Outcomes Look Like Outcomes of Non-Low Income Students with One Fewer HS Math

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs

Outcomes of Students in HS for 4 Years by Highest Math and Income Status, Texas 2006 First Time 9th Grade Cohort

AP, IB or Dual Credit LIAP, IB or Dual Credit NLIPreCalculus LIPreCalculus NLIAlgebra II LIAlgebra II NLI

21



LI = Low IncomeNLI = Non-low Income

© 2017 E3 Alliance


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs



22




© 2017 E3 Alliance


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs



23




© 2017 E3 Alliance


15%8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





Major in STEM

% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Hig

h Sc

hool

for 4

Yea

rs



24




© 2017 E3 Alliance

Algebra I Enrollment in Middle School for Prepared Students

How to Shrink Equity Gap in High School Math Course Taking:

25

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Over 20 Percentage Point Gap by Income Status for Middle School Algebra 1 Enrollment Rates

27

27%

41%

19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Texas Non-low Income Low Income

Perc

ent o

f Coh

ort

Percentage of Students in 2012 5th Grade Cohort Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade


© 2017 E3 Alliance

Enrollment Gap Exists Even for Non-Low Income Black & Hispanic Students

53%

14%

19%

17%

75%

28%

33%

43%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White

Percentage of Students

Non

-Low

Inco

me

Low

Inco

me

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center29

Percentage of Students in 2012 Texas 5th Grade Cohort Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Students in Rural Districts Have the LEAST Opportunity to Enroll in Algebra I by 8th Grade

30

15%

18%

19%

25%

26%

27%

32%

34%

27%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Rural

Independent Town

Non-Metropolitan

Other Central City

Other Central City Suburban

Major Urban

Major Suburban

Charter School Districts

Texas


Percentage of Students in 2012 5th Grade Cohort Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade


© 2017 E3 Alliance

What about Passing?When Algebra I is taken in Middle School in Texas• 96% pass both semesters of the course• 98% pass the Algebra 1 EOC (Phase 1 Standard)

And 58% achieve Advanced Standard!

Sometimes equity gaps exist because of concerns that not all student can be successful

But data shows this isn’t the case

31Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Using Quintiles to Study Outcomes of Students Most Prepared in 5th Grade Math

Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5Percent range 0% – 18% 18% - 39% 39%-58% 58%-77% 77%-100%

STAAR MathScore Meaning

Advanced Standard –On Trackfor CCR

Passedwith Higher

Score –Bubble

Passed MostPassed

Failed or STAAR M

# Texas Students 62K 70K 66K 66K 78K

% LowIncome 37% 54% 64% 72% 80%


© 2017 E3 Alliance

Three-Fourths of Students at Advanced Standardin 5th Grade Reach Algebra I by 8th Grade

75%

40%

17%7% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1st (Advanced) 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

Perc

enta

ge o

f Stu

dent

s

Quintile Ranking on 5th Grade STAAR Math

Percentage of Texas Students Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade by Quintile on 2012 5th Grade STAAR Math


© 2017 E3 Alliance

2/3 of Low Income Students at Advanced Standard for 5th Grade Math Were in Algebra I by 8th Grade

80%

46%

20%

8% 3%

66%

34%

15%7%

3%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Perc

enta

ge o

f Stu

dent

s


Percentage of Texas Students Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade by Quintile on 2012 5th Grade STAAR Math

Non-low Income Low Income34


How Can We Serve ALL Of Our MOST PREPARED STUDENTS?

How Can We Better Guide and Support BUBBLE Students?

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Lower Proportion of Black and Hispanic Students at Advanced Std in 5th Grade Enrolled in Algebra 1 in MS

34%17%

16%18%

65%38%

36%42%

92%71%

68%77%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

AsianBlack

HispanicWhite

AsianBlack

HispanicWhite

AsianBlack

HispanicWhite


Quintile 1(Advanced)

Quintile 2

Quintile 3

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center35

Percentage of 2012 Texas 5th Grade Cohort Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade by Quintile on 5th Grade STAAR Math

© 2017 E3 Alliance

For Students We Consider Absolutely Prepared, Rural Students Are Not Well Served => Lack Opportunity

36

45%

62%

62%

72%

73%

76%

81%

78%

75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Rural

Independent Town

Non-Metropolitan

Other Central City

Other Central City Suburban

Major Urban

Major Suburban

Charter School Districts

Texas

Percentage of Top Quintile Students

Of Students Who Ranked in Top Quintile on 5th Grade STAAR Math, Percent Who Enrolled in Algebra I by 8th Grade


© 2017 E3 Alliance

Three-Fourths of 5th Graders in Top Quintile Who Took Algebra I by 8th Grade Achieved Advanced Standard

76%

44%

23%

10% 3%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


% o

f Stu

dent

s in

Alg

ebra

by

8th

Gra

de


Percentage of Texas 5th Grade Cohort Enrolled in Algebra 1 by 8th Grade Who Attained Advanced Standard on EOC Exam

by Quintile on 2012 5th Grade STAAR Math


© 2017 E3 Alliance

Key Take-Aways• Higher levels of math ‘matter’• Equity gap in accelerated math pathways for students Low Income

Rural

Black and Hispanic

• With even our MOST prepared students under-represented

• Additional rigorous math helped mitigate equity gap

38

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Questions from the Audience

39

© 2017 E3 Alliance

The Intersection of District Practices & College and Career Readiness

40

© 2017 E3 Alliance

The Promise of Acceleration• Higher levels of math “inoculate” low-income students to

address income gaps College level math drives degree completion and addresses

workforce needs• Algebra I enrollment in middle school allows students to take

College Level math in HS Addressing equity gap in 8th grade should lead to improvements in

equity in college access and success• Nearly all students in accelerated math pathway pass course

and state assessmentMore bubble students can be successful than are accelerated

• Even 44% of bubble students achieve Advanced StandardWith right supports, bubble students can thrive with acceleration

41

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Case Study of Acceleration in Central Texas• Qualitative study of 13 ISDs• One “big shot” in 6th grade for most districts• Factors which contribute most to student success Teacher Quality

− Students reach Level 3 on STAAR− Strategies− Content knowledge− Differentiated instruction

Teacher Preparation− PD in Content − Pedagogy

Course Curriculum42

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Promising Practices & Recommendations From Central Texas

Shasta Buchanan, Ed.D.Executive Director

College & High School RelationsAustin Community College

Debbie Plowman, Ph.D.Coordinator of Mathematics Initiatives

Center for STEM EducationUniversity of Texas - Austin

Terrence Eaton, Ph.D.Associate Superintendent for Middle Schools

Austin Independent School District 43

© 2017 E3 Alliance

How Do We Get There? District Policies to Drive Consistency Across Schools• Lever of Change: 8th grade Algebra I• Early Math Focus: Intentional supports in PK-3 to prepare for

acceleration • Innovative Scheduling: Use tutorial time (ES) or double-

block instruction (MS) for time to support accelerated cohort• District-Wide Acceleration Policies: Automatic enrollment

for well prepared in 4th & 6th grade “Opt out” policy for top 40% of academically prepared =>

Parents informed of option to decline All other families notified of open enrollment; “opt in” policy Acceleration beginning prior to 6th grade would take advantage

of longer math instruction time in ES 44

© 2017 E3 Alliance

How Do We Get There? District Leadership – Curriculum and Alignment

• Supports: Redesign math curriculum & build “bridge programs” to support “bubble students”

• Embedded Supports: Develop formative (benchmark) assessments aligned with state standards => identify students in need of additional support

• Measure Success: Utilize data-driven approach to measure “success” of acceleration % 8th graders in accelerated pathway

(should match campus demographics) % accelerated reaching CCR standards on state assessment

(low income vs. non-low income) % of students taking math BEYOND Algebra II

(low income vs. non-low income) 45

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Regional Priorities Across the State

46

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Brainstorming

Individual: What are the top 3 priorities for YOUR local region?

Table Conversation: 1. Do you see any common themes across

regions?2. What should the Center for STEM

Education’s role be in supporting regional capacity-building?

47

© 2017 E3 Alliance

Share Out

• Select one priority and a table leader to report out

• Table Leader: Share out top priority with group

48

© 2017 E3 Alliance49

Amy Wiseman, Ph.D.Director of Research Studies

E3 [email protected]

512-223-7249

The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas.

Thank You!Christine Bailie, MPA.ff.

Deputy Director, P-16 InitiativesE3 Alliance

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Rigorous Math Matters!e3alliance.org/.../2017/07/Rigorous_Math_Matters_E3... · II. Postsecondary Success by Highest Math in High School III. Middle School Math Acceleration and Outcomes