Richmond Metro AreaEconomic OverviewRetail Merchants AssociationAnn Battle MacherasNovember 11, 2011

Overview

• Richmond Area Economic Trends• Labor Market Indicators• Industry Trends• Housing Market Indicators

• Retail Sector Business Activity Index

Richmond MSA Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY %

Chg

U.S.Richmond

September 2011US: 1.1%

RIC: -1.4%

Richmond Payroll Employment by Industry

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

1.1

2.1

1.7

1.3

-1.6

-0.1

3.3

2.3

0.9

1.2

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

-3.3

-3.1

-9.4

-7.9

3.1

0.2

-3.4

-0.3

0.4

-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

TotalNatural Resources & Construction

ManufacturingTrade, Transportation & Utilities

InformationFinancial Activities

Professional & Business ServicesEducation & Health Services

Leisure & HospitalityOther Services

Government

Percent

September 2011U.S.Richmond MSA

Richmond MSA Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Perce

nt

U.S.VirginiaRichmond

September 2011US: 9.1%VA: 6.5%RIC: 7.2%

Richmond Single Family Building Permits

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0

0.010.020.030.040.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY %

Chg

Richmond MSAVirginia

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Richmond MSA Total Richmond MSA-No Distressed SalesVirginia Total Virginia-No Distressed Sales

Richmond House Prices—CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

Fifth District Survey of Service Activity

• Survey released monthly—since 1998• Approximately 100 respondents per month• Respond by indicating an ‘increase’, ‘decrease’, or ‘unchanged’.• Index value is percentage reporting increase minus the percentage reporting decrease

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Fifth District Retail

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Diffusion Index3-month Average

Retail Revenues Index

Monthly ValuesAugust: -32September: -10October: -8

Fifth District Retail

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Diffusion Index3-month Average

Retail Revenues Index Retail Employment Index

Rev. Emp.August: -32 -8September: -10 1October: -8 -9

Some Observations• The economy continues to expand, but the pace is slower

than we would like• Job growth has been very soft and unemployment

remains stubbornly high• State and local government will serve as a drag on

employment growth• Stress continues in the housing market with limited

recovery so far• Relative to previous recessions, we might expect this

recovery to remain at a slow pace of growth

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

Questions?… and thank you!