Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center: Mission, … › education › ITTI › usgs › seismic... · 2008-01-08 · tsunami hazard • local / regional tsunami warning

Richard H.Richard H. HagemeyerHagemeyerPacific Tsunami Warning Center: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center:

Mission, Operations, and ActivitiesMission, Operations, and Activities

HISTORYHISTORY

•• U.S. TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER (PTWC) U.S. TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER (PTWC) ESTABLISHED IN 1949 ESTABLISHED IN 1949 ......AFTER THE 1946 TSUNAMIAFTER THE 1946 TSUNAMI

•• IOC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AND IOC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AND ITS ICG FORMED IN 1965 ITS ICG FORMED IN 1965 ......AFTER THE 1960 TSUNAMIAFTER THE 1960 TSUNAMIANDAND U.S. CONTRIBUTED PTWC AS ITS OPERATIONAL U.S. CONTRIBUTED PTWC AS ITS OPERATIONAL CENTERCENTER

•• U.S. ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER U.S. ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER ESTABLISHED IN 1969 ESTABLISHED IN 1969 ......AFTER THE 1964 TSUNAMIAFTER THE 1964 TSUNAMI

•• IOC INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IOC INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM ESTABLISHED IN 2005 ESTABLISHED IN 2005 ......AFTER THE 2004 TSUNAMIAFTER THE 2004 TSUNAMI

PTWC MissionPTWC Mission

SAVE LIVES AND REDUCE PROPERTY DAMAGE BY SAVE LIVES AND REDUCE PROPERTY DAMAGE BY ISSUING TIMELY AND EFFECTIVE WARNINGS FOR THE ISSUING TIMELY AND EFFECTIVE WARNINGS FOR THE TSUNAMI HAZARDTSUNAMI HAZARD

•• LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THE STATE OF HAWAIIFOR THE STATE OF HAWAII

•• U.S. NATIONAL CENTER FOR ALL U.S. INTERESTS U.S. NATIONAL CENTER FOR ALL U.S. INTERESTS IN PACIFIC OUTSIDE THE WC/ATWC AORIN PACIFIC OUTSIDE THE WC/ATWC AOR

•• INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR THE TSUNAMI INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR THE TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC (ITSU)WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC (ITSU)

•• INTERIM CENTER FOR THE INDIAN OCEANINTERIM CENTER FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

•• INTERIM CENTER FOR THE CARIBBEANINTERIM CENTER FOR THE CARIBBEAN

Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands

&Caribbean(Interim)

Indian Ocean (Interim)

WC/ATWC AOR

U.S./Canada Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

HAWAII:Local, Regional, & Distant Tsunamis

PACIFIC BASIN:Regional and

Distant Tsunamis

PTWC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

DIRECTOR

ADMINISTRATIVESUPPORT

ASSISTANT SENIORELECTRONICSTECHNICIAN

ELECTRONICSTECHNICIAN

SENIORSCIENTIST* SCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

TSUNAMIWARNING AND

SCIENTIFICOFFICER

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

OFFICER

SCIENTIST*

*GEOPHYSICIST, OCEANOGRAPHER, OR PHYSICAL SCIENTIST

RED = WATCHSTANDINGPOSITION

PTWC PLANNED STAFFING

Overview of PTWC Activities

• Respond to Alarms• Respond to Readiness Problems

– Communications Links– Data Sources (e.g., NEIC, HVO, WC/ATWC)– Hardware– Software

• Research – Internal Research to Improve Operations– Monitor Applicable External Research– Develop and Implement New Procedures

• Data Streams from Partners– Seek/Add New Data Streams– Maintain Existing Data Streams– Changes in Metadata– Changes in Formats

• Install/Maintain/Upgrade Field Sites– Hawaii Seismic and Sea Level Sites– Pacific Sea Level Sites

• Information and Computer Technology– System Administration Tasks– Security

• Software– Write New Operational Software– Maintain Existing Software


• Outreach– Public– Media

• Interface with Partners– NWS (PRH, HFO, AR, WR, SR)– NOAA (OAR-PMEL, NOS, NESDIS)– Hawaii Civil Defense– National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program– International (IOC, ICG/ITSU, ICG/IOTWS, IOCARIBE,

WMO)• WC/ATWC Backup• Maintain Facilities

– Grounds– Buildings– Housing– Antenna Farm– Geomagnetics– Kipapa Seismic Vault

• Safety Issues• Develop/Maintain Documentation• Develop/Maintain Web Site• Operate Geomagnetics Observatories for the USGS and Japan• Operate COOPS Weather Station


• Message Dissemination– Maintain List of Contact Points– Communications Tests– Exercises

• Other Administrative Tasks

PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIESPTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

•• SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESSEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES

•• SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTSSEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS

•• DECISIONDECISION--MAKING PROCESSESMAKING PROCESSES

•• MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONMESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

KEY OPERATIONAL GOALSKEY OPERATIONAL GOALS

•• FASTERFASTER

•• MORE ACCURATEMORE ACCURATE

•• MORE RELIABLEMORE RELIABLE

N

S

EW

Data Ingestinto Memory

Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival

Detection andAssociation

Event AlarmsAutomatic

HypocenterDetermination

AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive

Review andRefinement

InteractiveHypocenter

Determination

InteractiveMagnitude

Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks

EQ Paramsmeet Initial

BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES

PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

Issue InitialBulletin

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES




Ring(s)

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks

STEP 1

STEP 2

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES




Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival


AutomaticHypocenter

Determination

AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

STEP 2

STEP 3

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES



AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

STEP 3

STEP 4

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES


Issue InitialBulletinOperator

InteractiveReview andRefinement


Determination


Determination

STEP 5

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES



OperatorInteractive



BulletinCriteria?

STEP 6

YES

N

S

EW


Ring(s)

AutomaticArrival




AutomaticMagnitude

Determination

OperatorInteractive



Determination


Determination

OwnSeismicNetwork

CooperatingSeismic

Networks


BulletinCriteria?

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES



ComputeTsunami ETAs

if a Warning

STEP 7

YES


Pacific-Wide Warning

ConfirmedTeletsunami

Expanding Warning / Watch

Mw > 7.8

Regional Tsunami Warning

Mw 7.6 to 7.8

Tsunami Information

Bulletin

Mw 6.5 to 7.5

Earthquake Message Only

Mw less than 6.5(Mw: Moment Magnitude)

PTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIAPTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIA

N

S

EW

Run ForecastModel Based

on all AvailableData

HistoricalEarthquakes

and Tsunamis

Is There aSignificantIncrease of

Threat?

OperatorEvaluatesContinuing

Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters

Monitor for EQParametersfrom other

Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4

Issue Bulletinto Upgrade

Warning

STEP 5

YES

PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready

Monitor SeaLevel Gauge

Data

Monitor Mediafor Tsunami

Reports

Contact EQRegion forTsunamiReports

Is It Time for aSupplement

(every hour)?

Is There NoFurtherThreat?

NO

NO

Issue Bulletinto CancelWarning

YES

Issue Bulletinto Continue

Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO

Issue Bulletinto with NewInformation

YES

N

S

EW




and Tsunamis


Threat?


Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data


Reports



(every hour)?


NO

NO


YES


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YES



Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data

N

S

EW




and Tsunamis


Threat?


Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data


Reports



(every hour)?


NO

NO


YES


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YES

E


Reports


N

S

EW




and Tsunamis


Threat?


Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data


Reports



(every hour)?


NO

NO


YES


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YES




and Tsunamis


Threat

STEP 2

STEP 3

N

S

EW




and Tsunamis


Threat?


Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data


Reports



(every hour)?


NO

NO


YES


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YES


Threat?

STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


NO


YES

NO

N

S

EW




and Tsunamis


Threat?


Threat

Further RefineEQ

Parameters


Observatories

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3 STEP 4


Warning

STEP 5

YES


ComputeTsunami ETAs

if Haven’tAlready


Data


Reports



(every hour)?


NO

NO


YES


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YESIs It Time for aSupplement

(every hour)?

NO


Warning

YES

Go back toSTEP 1

NO

Is ThereSignificant

NewInformation?

NO


YES

100% 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITYOPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

•• POWERPOWER: All operational systems on a central UPS : All operational systems on a central UPS backed up by a generator with one week of fuel.backed up by a generator with one week of fuel.

•• CENTER HARDWARECENTER HARDWARE: Hardware duplicated into : Hardware duplicated into primary and redundant systems. primary and redundant systems.

•• DATA SOURCESDATA SOURCES: Seismic and sea level data come : Seismic and sea level data come from multiple sources. from multiple sources.

•• DATA COMMUNICATIONSDATA COMMUNICATIONS: Data is sent to PTWC over : Data is sent to PTWC over multiple links whenever possible.multiple links whenever possible.

100% 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITYOPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

•• DATA PROCESSINGDATA PROCESSING: Multiple algorithms for EQ : Multiple algorithms for EQ detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model guidance.guidance.

•• MESSAGINGMESSAGING: Multiple dissemination methods to reach : Multiple dissemination methods to reach designated contact points by multiple means.designated contact points by multiple means.

•• DUTY PERSONSDUTY PERSONS: Two persons always on duty on the : Two persons always on duty on the Center compound.Center compound.

•• BACKUP CENTERBACKUP CENTER: PTWC and WC/ATWC provide : PTWC and WC/ATWC provide backup service for each other.backup service for each other.

LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITYLONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

•• NATIONAL SUPPORTNATIONAL SUPPORT: National commitment to Center : National commitment to Center operations. As a part of the US National Weather operations. As a part of the US National Weather Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the environment and issues advisories, watches, and environment and issues advisories, watches, and warnings.warnings.

•• ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORTORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT: Organizations of : Organizations of stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency managers, warning center operators, and scientists managers, warning center operators, and scientists provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues.provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues.

LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITYLONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

•• MULTIMULTI--FUNCTION SEISMICFUNCTION SEISMIC: Seismic stations operated : Seismic stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, and geophysical research.and geophysical research.

•• MULTIMULTI--FUNCTION SEA LEVELFUNCTION SEA LEVEL: Sea level stations : Sea level stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including tides, storm surge, Elpurposes including tides, storm surge, El NiNiññoo, and , and longlong--term sea level rise.term sea level rise.

•• MULTIMULTI--FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONSFUNCTION COMMUNICATIONS: Data : Data communications methods shared when possible. communications methods shared when possible. Message disseminations over multiMessage disseminations over multi--purpose circuits purpose circuits such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.

LONG TERM READINESSLONG TERM READINESS

•• FREQUENT ALARMSFREQUENT ALARMS: Duty staff respond to one or two : Duty staff respond to one or two earthquakes per day on averageearthquakes per day on average

•• FREQUENT BULLETINSFREQUENT BULLETINS: Bulletin criteria set so system : Bulletin criteria set so system is exercised regularly. is exercised regularly.

Pacific:Pacific: Mw >= 6.5Mw >= 6.5 ~2 events/month~2 events/monthHawaii:Hawaii: ml > 4.0ml > 4.0 ~1 event/month~1 event/month

•• COMMUNICATION TESTSCOMMUNICATION TESTS: Monthly communication : Monthly communication tests with response required ensure communication tests with response required ensure communication links working and reinforce readiness.links working and reinforce readiness.

•• EXERCISESEXERCISES: Tabletop and more realistic exercises : Tabletop and more realistic exercises expose weaknesses and provide practice.expose weaknesses and provide practice.

CONTINUOUSDISPLAY

OFSEISMICTRACES

AUTOMATIC SOLUTIONS

FORPACIFICEVENTS

INITIAL LOCATION IN 3 - 8 MIN

SEISMICTRACES

IN ORDEROF

ARRIVAL FOR

MANUAL PICKING

DISPLAYFOR

MANUALPICKING

OFSEISMICTRACES

INTERACTIVE TOOL TO REFINE SOLUTION INCLUDING DEPTH

Mwp: Moment Magnitude from the P Wave

Seconds

Performance of PTWC Mwp

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5Harvard Mw

Mw

p (P

TWC

) - M

w (H

RV)

ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR TELESEISMS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

EVENT TIME (YEAR)

MIN

UTE

S SI

NC

E Q

UA

KE

CPPT

INTERACTIVEDISPLAY

ANDMEASURE

OFSEA LEVEL

DATA

POSSIBLE DART BUOY CONFIGURATION? (32 DARTS)

SIFT FORECAST MODEL: SOURCES

17 17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of GenerationGeneration--Propagation Model and TsunameterPropagation Model and Tsunameter

Real Time Detection of Real Time Detection of November 17, 2003 TsunamiNovember 17, 2003 Tsunami

Tsunami

TsunamiTsunami

Seismic

TSUNAMIS ARE RARE. KEEP THESE SAFETY TSUNAMIS ARE RARE. KEEP THESE SAFETY TIPS IN MIND AND ENJOY THE BEACH!TIPS IN MIND AND ENJOY THE BEACH!

Documents

Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center: Mission, … › education › ITTI › usgs › seismic... · 2008-01-08 · tsunami hazard • local / regional tsunami warning