Richard Engelen ECMWF

Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 1

Global Earth-system Modelling using Space and in-situ data – GEMS

Progress so far and satellite provision 2009-2019

Richard Engelen

ECMWF


Contents of the Presentation

• Overall Global Objectives of GEMS

• Specific Objectives of GEMS

• Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results

• Schedule to operational transition of GEMS in May 2009

• Review of Satellite Provision for GEMS 2009-2019


GEMS FAQs

• GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009• 12.5MEuro, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries

• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

• Management– Coordinator A.Hollingsworth

(ECMWF) – Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)– Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)– Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)– Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)– Validation H.Eskes (NL) – Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),


Motivations for GEMS

• BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES• Excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at

least 33K in western Europe.

• SCIENCE• GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status

assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan

• TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION• Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best

estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.


GEMS organisation

Validation

ReactiveGases

GreenhouseGases

AerosolRegional Air

Quality


Objectives of GEMS (i): Global Operational System for Monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition

Global Operational System• By 2009 a validated, comprehensive, and operational global

data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics,

• Combine all available remotely sensed and in-situ data

Deliverables: global monitoring & forecasting• 3D global distributions (high spatial and temporal resolution)

of key atmospheric trace constituents including • greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and

progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),

• reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),

• aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)


Objectives of GEMS (ii): -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts -Retrospective Analyses

-Variational Inversion Techniques

• Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational

regional air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems

• Retrospective Analysis • Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ

and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007)

• Sources, Sinks and Transports • Provide state-of-the-art variational estimates of the

sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols;



• Overall Global Objectives

• Specific Objectives

• Progress since Spring 2005 start1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results

• Schedule to operational transition in May 2009

• Satellite Provision 2009-2019


Progress since May 2005 in the global sub-projects

• Data Issue• WMO involvement in Chemical Weather:- BUFR issues being worked out• Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the

space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA)

• Modelling• Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species• In-line parameterisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol• Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) or dynamically (Aerosol)• Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry• For reactive gases: Forecast model coupled via OASIS-4 to CTMs (Chemical

Transport Models) is almost ready

• 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation)• 3 separate assimilation systems have been built

• Forecast error correlations assessed by Ensemble 4DVar & NCEP methods

• Generic capability implemented in 4D-Var to assimilate radiances, retrieved profiles, and total column amounts

• First assimilations being assessed


ECMWF model CO2 north-south gradients compared to surface flasks

Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients.

Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??)

Jan 2004 Aug2004


ECMWF model CO2 seasonal cycle compared to surface flasks

Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the seasonal cycle.

Northern hemisphere summer model values are slightly too high (missing land sink??)

S. Hem N. Hem


First atmospheric CO2 4D-Var analysis results

After 10 days of 4D-Var, the analysis has increased the global mean value as well as the spatial gradients.

The increments in any analysis cycle are within ± 3 ppmv.

369

387

3.2

-3.1


Zonal mean CO2 distributions

369

380

60 S

60 N

The effect of assimilating AIRS radiances is mainly to increase CO2 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere.

The lower troposphere is largely unaffected, because vertical error correlations are narrow and the adjoint of convection is still missing.

100

1000


90°S

60°S

30°S

0°

30°N

60°N

90°N

100°W 75°W 50°W 25°W 0° 25°E 50°E 75°E 100°E

-0.2 -0.08 0.04 0.16 0.28 0.4 0.52 0.64 0.76 0.88 1

First guess departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns

Preliminary results for one analysis cycle


90°S

60°S

30°S

0°

30°N

60°N

90°N

100°W 75°W 50°W 25°W 0° 25°E 50°E 75°E 100°E

-0.2 -0.14 -0.08 -0.02 0.04 0.1 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.34 0.4

Analysis departures (obs-analysis) for AOD at 0.55 microns

Preliminary results for one analysis cycle


50°S50°S

25°S 25°S

0°0°

25°N 25°N

50°N50°N

75°W

75°W 50°W

50°W 25°W

25°W 0°

0° 25°E

25°E 50°E

50°E 75°E

75°E

-1

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

-0.05

0.05

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.5

1

(mg/kg)

Aerosol mixing ratio increments at the surface


Background 20041201, 00z

Analysis, 20041201, 0z

CO observations

Kg/m2Observation error 10% diagonal B-matrix, σb=1.e-7 kg/kg

Background field = 1.e-7 kg/kg

No chemistry

Test assimilation of MOPITT total column CO data



• Overall Global Objectives

• Specific Objectives

• Progress since Spring 2005 start1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results

• Schedule to operational transition in May 2009

• Satellite Provision 2009-2019


Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF

Year 1May 2005 -Aug 2006

• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site

Year 2Aug 2006-Aug 2007

• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers

Year 2-2.5Aug 2007-Jan 2008

• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience

Year 2.5-3.5Jan 2008- Nov 2008

• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008- May 2009

• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers


Review of satellite provision 2009-2019

• Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019• Uncertain implications of $3B cost overrun in NOAA’s

$8B NPP/NPOESS program• DoD must report to Congress in May/June 2006• Worst case scenario: No launch before 2014• Recent news is much more encouraging

• NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain

• ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes

• Concerns• Greenhouse Gases• Aerosol• Reactive Gases


Greenhouse Gas Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEur

Envisat (SCIAMACHY) NOAAJAXA

Metop (IASI)

DOAS Sounders

Npp(CrIS)

Npoess (CrIS)

Npoess (CrIS)

GREENHOUSE Gases : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

Advanced Sounders

Aqua (AIRS)

Uncertainty

OCO

GOSAT


Aerosol Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEurNOAAJAXA

ADM

Polarimeter Npp (VIIRS)

Npoess (VIIRS+APS)

Npoess (VIIRS+APS)

VisIR Imager

Aqua (MODIS )

Terra (MODIS ) Uncertainty

AURA (TES, OMI)

AEROSOLS, Albedo, Ocean Colour, Vegetation: Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

CalipsoLidar

Envisat (MERIS)


Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEurNOAAJAXA

REACTIVE Gases (O3, N2O, SO2, CH2O) : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

Upr. Trop. - Lower StratUncertainty

Envisat (MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS)

Lower Troposphere

Metop (GOME-2)

Npoess (OMPS)

Npoess (OMPS )

Npp (OMPS) ~SBUV+TOMS

Aura (TES, OMI)

Aura (TES, OMI)

Envisat (SCIAMACHY)


Conclusions on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019

• Security of Satellite Provision beyond 2009• Most secure

• Greenhouse gases probably have the most secure provision

• Least Secure • Reactive gases probably have the least secure provision • Air-Quality chemistry has no provision beyond 2012

• Aerosol provision depends on an early launch date for VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS

• Next Developments

• Press ESA for an Air-Quality mission in 2010, and EUMETSAT for 2020

• Await Congressional confirmation of DoD/NOAA May’06 recommendations on NPP/NPOESS

• Hope that the US scientists can persuade current and future US administrations to fund the necessary NASA and NOAA missions.


ENDthank you for your attention!

www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

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Richard Engelen ECMWF