Water is the Oil of the 21st Century1

Richard Coates April 2011

A frequent quiz question asks - What is the longest river in Saudi Arabia? – the answer, of course, is that there are no rivers in Saudi Arabia, nor indeed in the whole Arabian peninsular, except for temporary wadis that carry away the occasionally occurring flash floods. Arabia, abundant in oil, is desperately short of water. To the north, the once-great rivers of Iraq and the Levant, the Tigris, Euphrates and the Jordan are now seriously depleted. Only the Nile continues to flow at more or less historic levels, allowing a thriving agricultural industry in its delta. By contrast, water consumption has risen inexorably across the region, in part because of rapidly rising populations, in part because of extremely high water consumption per capita, mostly used for agriculture. Even the consumption of bottled water is at its highest in certain Middle East countries. These factors are combining to create a looming crisis, which, while well documented, appears to attract insufficient attention, publicity or government and inter-government action. If water truly is the oil of the 21st Century, the Middle Eastʼs prospects will deteriorate rapidly.

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The Data

Data abounds on the state of water resources in the region. The 2010 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) entitled Water – Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource2 cites the World Bank3 and the UNDP4 in examining the subject. It concludes that the Middle East and almost all of its countries fall into the category of ʻWater Scarcityʼ defined as having less than 1,000 cubic metres of fresh water per person per year. Table 1 following illustrates just how serious the problem is. In the GCC only Oman approaches 50% of the scarcity level; the others are at 15% or less, with Kuwait being almost totally without water. In the rest of the region, all except Lebanon fall below the scarcity level, with Yemen, Libya and Jordan experiencing severe scarcity. As the tables show, the AFED estimates for future supplies worsen, due mainly to growing populations. No other region in the world experiences such scarcity.

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The report states: The state of water resources and management in most Arab countries is precarious. Population growth and associated demand for water in the region have reduced per capita supply to one-fourth of its 1960 levels. Without fundamental change in policies and practices the situation will get worse with both political and economic ramifications.5

It goes on to note that climate change predictions will increase the aridity in the region over the rest of the current century, creating a particular threat to agriculture, but concludes that policy makers in the region have not yet formulated strategies to address the problem.

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Source: AFED6

Table 1 Annual Availability of Natural Renewable Water

Per Capita

PerCapitaRenewableAvailabilitym3(2006) 2015(AFED) 2025(AFED)

WateristheOilofthe21stCentury 4

Table 2 shows what happens when there is such a scarcity – the usage of water is, in many countries greater, than the available supply – in Saudi Arabia by five times and Bahrain and UAE double the total water resources, and, although there is no data for Qatar, it is reasonable to assume that it also falls into this range, at least.

Country Bm3 As a % of

Total Water Resources

Algeria 4.59 40 Lebanon 1.29 40 Tunisia 2.53 72 Oman 1.22 74 Syria 14.70 78 Morocco 16.84 84 Kuwait 0.76 87 Jordan 0.98 104 Egypt 73.10 108 Yemen 3.20 125 Bahrain 0.25 170 UAE 1.60 180 Libya 3.89 469 Saudi Arabia 17.00 506 Qatar 0.28 na

Table 2 Annual Water Usage as a Percentage of Total

Water Resources

Source: AFED7

Domestic and Civic Water Consumption

It is not difficult to see, in the UAE for example, how water is used / wasted on an everyday basis

WateristheOilofthe21stCentury 5

  In the dusty climate created by the nearby desert, cars are washed (most usually with hosepipes) on a regular, often daily, basis

  In the vast, mostly expatriate, villa complexes, every house has a garden, mostly laid to lawn with trees and flower borders – in need of daily or twice-daily irrigation

  Many tower-block apartments and all villa complexes have swimming pools, as do many individual householders, the water of which needs frequent replenishment and recycling

  Radio advertisements are now targeting over-use, with a precocious young person exhorting her mother not to leave the tap running when peeling the vegetables, to take showers not baths, or to reduce the time spent in the shower

  There are a commendable number of parks around the cities, particularly in Dubai, fully irrigated

  The fiercely chilly air conditioning required throughout the region uses large quantities of water, as well as power

  Many roadsides, roundabouts and complex flyover junctions have beautiful grass and thousands of flowers to beautify them, also fully irrigated

  Immaculately maintained golf courses have sprung up across the region, particularly in Dubai

  Fountains - including the spectacular Dubai fountain - abound in parks, outside buildings and on roundabouts (Dubai Fountain publicity states, Spray heights of up to 500 feet ★ 22,000 gallons of airborne water)

However, while important, even if consumption in these areas was halved, it would have little impact on the problem. The reason for this is illustrated in Table 3, following – the vast majority of water in all countries is used in agriculture. Domestic consumption ranges from at highest 37% of the total in Kuwait to less than 10% in many North African and Levant countries and Oman.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: AFED9 Agriculture Industry DomesEc

Table 3 Domestic, Agricultural and Industrial Water Consumption

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The Impact of Agriculture

Table 4, following, using data drawn from the World Bank10 in 2010 again illustrates just how much water is used in agriculture. Even in countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar, agriculture is the primary user of this precious resource. Most people would be surprised, since there is little agriculture in evidence anywhere near the cities. However, a quick supermarket tour reveals local milk and dairy produce, eggs, poultry, meat and vegetables all produced locally. More traditionally, where oasis water exists, extensive date production can be found. Nile-irrigated Egypt is a major agricultural producer, providing vegetables for UK and Italy in particular.

Source: World Bank, The Little Green Data Book 201011

Internal freshwater per capita

cu.m

Freshwater withdrawal

as % internal resources

% used in agriculture

Kuwait 0 54

Bahrain 5 8935 45

Egypt 22 3794 86

UAE 34 2665 83

Qatar 45 870 59

Yemen 94 162 90

Libya 97 721 83

Saudi Arabia 99 986 88

Jordan 119 138 65

Algeria 332 54 65

Syria 349 238 88

Tunisia 410 63 82

Oman 514 94 88

Morocco 929 43 87

Lebanon 1153 27 60

Table 4 Water Usage – Supporting Data

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Egypt aside, is this economically sensible or indeed sustainable longer term? The dilemma is a very serious one, particularly for the oil-rich, water-poor countries of the Gulf. Given rapidly growing populations, the enormous influx of expatriates, prodigious urban development and increasing diversity of industry, does it make sense for these countries to continue to produce relatively low-value products such as milk at the risk of further water depletion? The amount of water required to produce a range of agricultural products is staggeringly large.

However, it is both understandable and desirable that countries maintain some degree of independence in food production. Further, the environmental cost of importing these products, many of which would need to be air-freighted, is also great, and potentially detrimental overall.

To supplement local agriculture, GCC investors, including governments, have purchased large tracts of agricultural land in other countries. As an example, UAE organisations have acquired at least 800,000 acres of agricultural land in Pakistan while the Saudis have investments in many African and Asian countries. The host countries, many of which also have a local food crisis to tackle, do not always welcome this development.

Bottled Water After Italy, the UAE has the highest consumption of bottled water in the world with nearly 200 litres per person. All hotels and restaurants offer water as an adjunct to meals, much of it left undrunk at the end. Unless explicitly requested otherwise, this water is usually expensively imported from Europe, and expensively added to the bill at the end.

The UAE is a producer of bottled water, obtained from aquifers in the Hajar mountains around Masafi and Hatta towards the Indian Ocean coast, and which retails for much less than the imported brands. Bizarrely, however, this is also exported: American forces in Afghanistan are supplied with UAE bottled water, and it is exported as far as Japan, where, not doubt, it is expensively marketed as coming from exotic Arabia.

Output Water required 1 Cup of coffee 140 litres

1 kg maize 900 litres

1 litre milk 1000 litres

1 kg wheat 1350 litres

1 kg rice 3000 litres

1 kg beef 16000 litres

Source - Water Footprint Network, 201112

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Desalination

A critical feature of urban expansion is to provide, in parallel, the necessary water, sewerage and power demanded by the new developments and their inhabitants. In a region as arid as the Middle East, the only way that copious quantities of water can be generated is through desalination of the sea.

Whilst water demand has generally been met, Dubai failed to keep pace with handling waste water, leading to a situation in 2008-09 where at any one time, hundreds of sewage trucks queued for many hours in the heat before dumping their loads in untreated desert ʻlagoonsʼ. This crisis was due to the delayed opening of a second treatment plant. Similarly, in Sharjah, there are frequent power blackouts in the summer because the local Electricity Authority cannot meet current demand.

By contrast, desalination plants (now numbering more than 120 around the Gulf) have continued to be built. However, this is a highly expensive way of producing fresh water, with significant environmental impact. Not least is the continuously increasing salinity of the Gulf, a shallow body of water, not easily replenished by the Indian Ocean due to its narrow entrance in the Straits of Hormuz.

Masdar City – a Futuristic Solution?

Masdar City, committed to creating an experimental carbon-neutral city promises to generate its water through desalination using solar power. The Cityʼs own website describes its target.13

Masdar Cityʼs water needs are less than half that of business as usual (BAU). In Phase 1 it is targeting consumption of 180ltr/person/day, well below the 550ltr/p/d BAU. The cityʼs target will be progressively lowered, to an ultimate goal at full build-out that is 40% below the Phase 1 target. However, this does not include water required for district cooling, which could double the amount of water required by the city.

Its plans contain a range of strategies for achieving this goal, including the astonishing idea of installing water metres and having a tariff for water usage. (Elsewhere in the UAE, while water is charged to non-Emiratis, this is done using a ʻslabʼ system, or average based on the size of the property, while Emiratis pay nothing. This leads to a situation where no-one takes any responsibility for water conservation since it either has no, or an uncontrollable cost, whatever individual behaviour). However, not all is well at Masdar City. Its original source of supply turns out to be far too saline to be desalinated using solar power alone. It is now looking at alternative sources of supply, possibly deep underground, or improving desalination technology so that it uses less power. A spokesman14 for the company admitted as recently as a year ago that they did not yet have a viable solution,

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What Are the Implications?

Masdarʼs goals are inspiring. However if this innovative, cost-is-no-object initiative, (using, as it boasts, the best environmental scientists from around the world) is struggling to find a viable solution on a small scale, this is a major cause for concern for the wider challenge. The data is overwhelming. What little water exists is rapidly depleting. The once-great rivers in the north of the region are being depleted by over-use and drying up, the Dead Sea has lost 14 cubic kilometres of water over the last 30 years and the Gulf is becoming too saline to desalinate further. By contrast, water consumption both for agriculture and personal and civic use is very high by world standards and rising. Even the consumption of bottled water (in the UAE at least) is amongst the highest globally.

A newly-published report by risk consultants Maplecroft15 names the UAE, Oman and Kuwait among the 10 nations with the “most extreme risk” of interruptions to water supply. After Mauritania, which has the highest risk ranking of the 162 countries surveyed, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Israel, Niger, Iraq, Oman, the UAE and Syria are the countries most vulnerable to having an insufficient quantity and quality of water “to enable normal societal and economic functioning,” (my italics).

All of the worldʼs environmental agencies agree that this is a crisis. Far too late, Gulf governments are attempting to find solutions, from the (relatively) prosaic of building large underground reservoirs (in the UAE) to the fanciful (and certainly ridiculously expensive) idea of ionising the atmosphere to create rain (in Saudi Arabia and UAE).

It is clear that in this desert environment, trying to raise supply to meet ever-increasing demand is unworkable as a single strategy. In parallel, there must be a concerted attempt to reduce demand, especially in agriculture.

If the region does not begin to solve its water problem very quickly, it is likely to be the most significant factor affecting the wealth, stability and peace of the region with serious implications that can be devastating to the wider world economy. If lack of water prevents ʻnormal societal and economic functioningʼ the risks to oil supplies and world economic health are obvious.

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1  Andrew Liveris, CEO Dow Chemical, cited in “Running Dry,” The Economist, 21 Aug 08 2  Arab Forum for Environment and Development, Arab Environment Water – Sustainable Management of a Scarce

Resource, Beirut, 2010 3  World Bank, 2003 (Data collected 2002-03) 4  World Water Development Reports 2 (2006) and 3 (2009), UNESCO, New York 5  AFED, ibid pXIII 6  AFED ibid, extracted from Table 1, p3

7  AFED ibid, extracted from Table 1, p3 8  Quoted from www.thedubaimall.com 9  AFED ibid, extracted from Table 1, p3 10  World Bank, The Little Green Data Book 2010, Washington DC. Data extracted from relevant Country Pages pp

18-227

11  ibid 12  www.waterfootprint.org website 13  www.masdarcity.ae/en/61/sustainability-and-the-city/water/ 14  Dr Ameena al Kulaib, Manager of the Water Department at Masdar City. See “Masdar City Searches for Cleaner

Water”, The National, 3 April 2010

15  Maplecroft Water Security Risk & Report (Styles, T. & Place, F), published March 2011

Endnotes