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Rice-Wheat Food System -- Socioeconomic and Policy Issues. P K Joshi National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012. Organization of presentation. 1.Background 2.Objectives 3.Institutional and policy issues 5.Performance of rice-wheat system - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Rice-Wheat Food System-- Socioeconomic and Policy
Issues
P K Joshi
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012
Organization of presentation
1. Background
2. Objectives
3. Institutional and policy issues
5. Performance of rice-wheat system
6. Sustainability of rice-wheat system
7. Issues for future research
I. Background
• Rice and wheat are the most important crops in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)
• IGP was characterized for green revolution as a result of HYVs of rice and wheat
• The region contributes about 60% of total rice and wheat production in the country
• This region accounts for more than 75% of total procurement in the country
Emerging issues
• Over production is burdening state exchequer
• Rice and wheat yields are stagnating
• Total factor productivity is decelerating
• Intensification led to degradation of natural resources
II. Objectives
• How is the performance of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain?– Production– Profitability– Sustainability
• What are the key sources of production growth in rice and wheat?
• How to sustain production of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain?
Indo Gangetic Plain
Study area
TGP
UGP
MGP
LGP
Indo Gangetic PlainFS
Plains
Arid
NWP
SWP
CP
NEP
EP
Vindyan
NEP
SBP
NBP
BP
RP
CAP
ACSP
Sub-Regions
Study domain
Policy initiatives
• Subsidy on– Fertilizer– Canal water– power tariff– Improved varieties of seeds– Credit
• Minimum support prices• Assured procurement of
rice and wheat
Institutional aspects
• Investment in agricultural research
• Seed sector• Credit institutions• Irrigation network
III. Performance of Rice and wheat
Production of Rice and Wheat in Indo- Gangetic Plain
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Rice WheatYear
Pro
du
cti
on
(' 0
00
to
nn
es
)
1966/67
1997/98
Sub Regions Change in Rice Share in
Production(mtons) total Prod. (%) Production Area Yield
Foothills of Shivalik 0.83 3.57 6.38 3.5 2.89 Plains 3.88 16.68 8.44 6.06 2.41Arid 3.94 16.93 13.34 9.98 3.47
North-Western Plains 0.85 3.63 4.73 0.68 4.05South-Western Plains 0.67 2.89 4.83 1.37 3.45Central Plains 1.68 7.21 5.6 1.44 4.15
Eastern Plains 1.84 7.92 6.35 1.29 5.06Vindyan 0.18 0.78 3.96 1.27 2.67South Bihar Plains 0.19 0.80 0.21 -0.47 0.68North -Eastern Plains 1.39 5.97 4.53 0.85 3.67North-Bihar Plains 0.47 2.03 1.99 0.19 1.77North -East Plains 0.63 2.73 2.14 -0.06 2.19
Barind Plains 0.86 3.69 3.53 0.42 3.11Central alluvial Plains 4.13 17.72 4.13 0.93 3.21Rorh Plain 0.98 4.22 2.97 0.41 2.57Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 0.75 3.23 3.49 0.65 2.85Total Change in Rice Prod. 23.29
Middle Gangetic Plains Region
Lower Gangetic Plains Region
Annual Compound growth rates (%)
Change in production and growth rates of area, production and yield of rice in IGP,1967-96
Trans Gangetic Plains Region
Upper Gangetic Plains Region
Sub Region Change in Wheat Share inProd. (mtons) total Prod. (%) Production Area Yield
Foothills of Shivalik 1.49 4.71 4.09 1.08 3.03Plains 5.13 16.28 4.15 1.59 2.57Arid 6.69 21.22 5.68 2.79 2.94
North-Western Plains 3.13 9.93 4.55 1.16 3.39South-Western Plains 2.70 8.57 4.41 1.42 2.99Central Plains 3.02 9.58 6.43 3.04 3.39
Eastern Plains 2.74 8.70 9.15 6.11 3.05Vindyan 0.20 0.64 6.88 4.69 2.18South Bihar Plains 0.91 2.90 3.99 1.59 2.48North -Eastern Plains 2.79 8.84 5.15 2.00 3.15North-Bihar Plains 1.47 4.67 5.73 2.65 3.06North -East Plains 0.63 2.01 3.88 1.03 2.82
Barind Plains 0.18 0.56 9.35 5.5 3.93Central alluvial Plains 0.39 1.25 4.68 2.12 2.63Rorh Plain 0.04 0.13 1.19 -1.64 2.86Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 0.01 0.04 3.27 0.59 2.75Total Change in Wheat Prod. 31.53
Middle Gangetic Plains Region
Lower Gangetic Plains Region
Annual Compound growth rates (%)
Change in production and growth rates of area, production and yield of wheat in IGP,1967-96
Trans Gangetic Plains Region
Upper Gangetic Plains Region
Sub Regions 1967 1996 1967-76 1977-86 1987-96
Foothills of Shivalik 1132 2820 5.91 3.03 1.26Plains 1318 2963 6.87 1.38 0.34Arid 1308 3999 8.89 1.82 4.18
North-Western Plains 820 2351 4.92 4.17 1.68South-Western Plains 816 2125 3.03 3.65 3.91Central Plains* 670 1851 4.19 4.62 2.53
Eastern Plains* 496 1890 4.03 6.62 4.36Vindyan* 563 1557 1.97 4.31 7.06South Bihar Plains* 874 1085 0.45 2.01 -2.22North -Eastern Plains* 668 1559 2.04 6.13 3.29North-Bihar Plains* 589 980 2.69 2.56 -1.56North -East Plains* 616 1344 2.04 6.13 3.29
Barind Plains 881 1937 0.58 3.45 4.48Central alluvial Plains 1086 2335 2.06 3.25 2.07Rorh Plain 1300 2341 0.45 2.97 1.50Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain1096 1979 1.57 2.81 1.97IGP Region 839 2850 3.00 3.93 5.12
* Data upto 1994
Yield (kg/ha) Annual Compound growth rates(%)
Average yield and yield growth rates of rice in different sub- regions of IGP
Trans Gangetic Plains Region
Upper Gangetic Plains Region
Middle Gangetic Plains Region
Lower Gangetic Plains Region
Sub Region1967 1996 1967-76 1977-86 1987-96
Foothills of Shivalik 1290 3496 4.09 3.55 2.63Plains 1949 3963 0.69 3.27 1.90Arid 1749 3873 2.52 2.86 2.27
North-Western Plains 1208 2702 1.34 4.54 1.59South-Western Plains 1340 2899 1.30 4.27 1.67Central Plains* 967 2164 1.34 4.54 1.59
Eastern Plains* 1064 2216 1.71 3.44 2.32Vindyan* 1124 1693 -4.77 4.39 6.43South Bihar Plains* 799 1906 5.59 2.09 3.06North -Eastern Plains* 940 2009 0.13 5.04 2.68North-Bihar Plains* 772 2102 4.47 3.67 4.44North -East Plains* 753 1812 0.13 5.04 2.68
Barind Plains 851 2221 6.28 6.16 2.68Central alluvial Plains 1036 2477 6.30 5.05 2.54Rorh Plain 1021 2436 4.32 5.34 3.22Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 1069 1909 6.24 4.28 -0.76IGP Region 1293 3624 1.58 3.64 4.08
* Data upto 1994
Trans Gangetic Plains Region
Upper Gangetic Plains Region
Middle Gangetic Plains Region
Lower Gangetic Plains Region
Yield (kg/ha)
Average yield and yield growth rates of wheat in different sub- regions of IGP
Annual Compound growth rates (%)
IV Sources of growth in rice and wheat production
•Technology•Area•Policy
Rice area according to yield levels and growth rates
Yield level Growth rates Total
>3.5 percent 2-3 percent 1-2 percent <1 percent
> 3 tons/ha 3.84 2.63 2.37 8.84
2.5-3 tons/ha 0.38 2.82 1.88 6.64 11.72
2-2.5 tons/ha 7.44 12.81 4.91 4.68 29.84
1.5-2 tons/ ha 14.38 2.26 2.69 3.91 23.24
<1.5 tons/ha 1.28 5.11 0.01 20.40 26.8
Total Share 27.32 23.00 12.12 38.00 100
Perticulars Unit High Low t values
HYV area % 95 31 4.30Fertilizer Kg/ha 124 65 12.70Irrigated area % 100 42 2.71Tractors no/ 000 ha 40 0 12.70Market no/ lakh ha 13 3 12.70Rainfall mm 250 738 12.70
All are significantly different at 5%
Tecnology and infrastructure levels in high and low growth regions of rice
Yield level Total area>3.5 percent 2-3 percent 1-2 percent <1 percent
> 3 tons/ ha 4 17 15 362.5-3 tons/ ha 1 8 2 5 132-2.5 tons / ha 11 11 8 6 36<2 tons /ha 9 3 2 1 15Total Share 25 36 28 12 100
Wheat area according to yield levels and growth rates
Growth rates
Perticulars Unit High Low t valuesHYV area % 96 37 4.30Fertilizer Kg/ha 95 67 3.18 Irrigated area % 98 138 4.30Tractors no/ 000 ha 45 0 4.30Market no/ lakh ha 6 5 3.18Rainfall mm 184 131 3.18
Technology and infrastructure levels in high and low growth regions of wheat
All are significantly different at 5 %
Area expansion of rice and wheat in IGP (1966-95)
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
Rice Wheat
Are
a ('
000
hac
)1966
1996
Sources of area expansion
• Utilization of fallow lands– Cropping intensity increased from 130
in 1967 to 175 in 1998• Crop substitution
– Coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds• Management of degraded lands
– 1 m ha alkali soil was reclaimed– Contributed >20% of increased
production
Profitability (‘ 000 Rs / ha) of various crop rotations underdifferent scenarios in Karnal District, Haryana, India
Crop rotation With subsidy1 Without subsidyin fertilizer
Without subsidyin electricity and
fertilizerRice- wheat- black gram 31.4 30.2 22.5
Rice- berseem 30.6 29.8 20.9
Rice-wheat- mung bean 30.5 29.2 21.5
Rice-wheat 28.9 27.8 20.6
Rice-chickpea 26.6 26.0 20.0
Pigeonpea- wheat 20.5 19.7 18.0
1. Subsidy in fertilizer and electricity for irrigationSource: Derived from data of on- farm survey, 1996-97
Sources of change in gross income-rice
4555
23
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980s 1990s
Yield effect Price effect
Sources of change in gross income-wheat
4753
19
81
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980s 1990s
Yield effect Price effect
Part III
Sustainability issues of rice and wheat
Total factor productivity growth rates of rice (% per year)
Subregion 1966-76 1977-86 1987-96Trans Gangetic Plain Region
Foothills of Shivalik 8.22 0.93 2.03
Plains 9.00 2.79 0.82Arid 13.26 5.44 3.27
Upper Gangetic Plain RegionNorthwestern Plains 1.12 -1.97 -8.62Southwestern Plains 0.72 -0.47 6.33Central Plain 1.04 -1.05 -3.31
Middle Gangetic Plain RegionEastern Plains 2.07 3.15 0.26Vindyan 1.52 -1.48 3.79South Bihar Plains 1.84 -6.06 -5.73Northeastern Plains 1.12 0.87 -1.84North Bihar Plains 4.43 -2.66 -4.60Northeastern Plains 5.81 -7.06 0.30
Lower Gangetic Plain RegionBarind Plains 0.35 1.99 -0.74Central Alluvial Plains 0.88 2.20 0.12Rorh Plains -1.27 0.32 -0.52Alluvial Coastal Saline -0.58 0.76 -1.15
Region wise TFP growth rates of wheat (% per year)
Subregion 1966-76 1977-86 1987-96Trans Gangetic Plain Region
Foothills of Shivalik 5.12 0.30 0.28
Plains 2.41 -3.23 -3.77Arid 3.52 0.29 -0.57
Upper Gangetic Plain RegionNorthwestern Plains 1.43 -0.51 -8.26Southwestern Plains 1.59 -1.03 -8.72Central Plain 3.23 -0.63 -8.90
Middle Gangetic Plain RegionEastern Plains 6.65 -1.55 -9.99Vindyan 3.34 -0.88 -18.79South Bihar Plains 2.55 -2.11 -1.06Northeastern Plains 1.37 0.22 -8.85North Bihar Plains 4.10 -2.96 -1.65Northeast Plains 0.68 -3.57 -5.22
Lower 0.68Gangetic Plain RegionBarind Plains 29.46 -6.06 -12.49Central Alluvial Plains 19.87 -2.26 -10.46Rorh Plains 15.32 -0.26 -9.16Alluvial Coastal Saline 26.25 -1.99 -12.93
Indicators of sustainability
Economic Indicators
• Growth in production
• Yield level
• Yield stability
Environmental Indicators
• Groundwater
• Land degradation
• Biodiversity
Sustainability Index of rice Sustainability Index of rice and wheatand wheat
Unsustainable area of rice and wheat in IGP
0
20
40
60
RiceWheatCrops
Un
su
stain
able
are
a (%)
1966-761987-96
Sustainability status Sustainability status Of riceOf rice
1966-671966-67 1996-1996-9797
• During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are Vindyan and South Bihar plain Vindyan and South Bihar plain in Middle gangetic plain and in Middle gangetic plain and Barind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal salineBarind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain region.plain in Lower gangetic plain region.
• In 1987-96 , In 1987-96 , Plains Plains in Trans gangetic plain; in Trans gangetic plain; North western plainNorth western plain in Upper in Upper gangetic plain; gangetic plain; South Bihar,North Bihar and North eastSouth Bihar,North Bihar and North east in Middle gangetic in Middle gangetic plain and plain and Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower in Lower gangetic plain becomes unsustainable.gangetic plain becomes unsustainable.
Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions
Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions
Sustainability status Sustainability status Of wheatOf wheat
1966-671966-67 1996-1996-9797
Unsustainable Unsustainable regionregion
Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions
• During 1966-67, all the regions except During 1966-67, all the regions except North eastern plainNorth eastern plain in Middle in Middle gangetic plain,were sustainable regions.gangetic plain,were sustainable regions.
• During 1987-96, During 1987-96, Plains Plains in Trans gangetic plain; in Trans gangetic plain; North western and North western and South westernSouth western in Upper gangetic plain; in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar, North eastern and South Bihar, North eastern and North east North east in Middle gangetic plain and in Middle gangetic plain and Rorh and Alluvial coastal Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plainsaline plain in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable. in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable.
Future researchable issues
• Reform in irrigation sector• Price policy• Technology intervention in slow growth
regions• Agricultural diversification in high growth
regions– High value enterprises– Export led enterprises
• Innovative institutional models
Conclusions
• Policies, institutions and technologies played important role in increasing production of rice and wheat
• Growth rates in yields as well as of TFP of rice and wheat are decelerating
• Deceleration in growth of yields and TFP in low-yielding regions is a matter of serious concern
Conclusions
• Many environmental problems have erupted as a result of defective policies
• Huge potential exists in increasing yields of rice and wheat
• Opportunities are to be explored in lagging regions
• Input price policies need to be corrected for their efficient utilization, and containing degradation of natural resources
Thank you
C C1
W1
W2
T
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Gro
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Canal water
Canal water
Wat
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Canal water rates and water logging
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Can
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Groundwater
Groundwater
Wat
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(M
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Power tariff and water table