Revolution Evolution, Convergence Appliance

Ken Wirt

SVP/GM palmOne, Inc

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We Hold These Truths to be Self-Evident…

■ Convergence is inevitable■ 3.7M results on Google■ Phones will cannibalize everything

■ Multi-function is better than single function■ More is better

■ “Platforms” are the best■ PC, OS, open architecture

■ But the signs are not always obvious

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Survey

■ Clock, radio, receiver, TV, VCR

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Survey

■ Washer-Dryer vs. pen-pencil vs. toaster-oven

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Survey

■ Can-bottle opener vs. Swiss Army knife vs. spork

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Survey

■ Phone-answering machine vs. multi-function printer

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Survey

■ Phone vs. PDA vs. calculator vs. MP3

■ Signs are more confusing than they seem…

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Electrification of Steam Power

■ Factory laid out with belts connecting “work stations” to steam engine■ No possiblity of “distributed steam”

■ Takes 20 yrs (life-cycle of factory building) for electric dynamo to be “distributed”

■ Average car has >60 electric motors

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20 Years for Distributed Computing

■ My kitchen has >14 computers

■ My house has 16 optical drives

■ Seems easy to predict, but if you make a wrong turn ….

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What is the Life-cycle of technology?

■ How can we understand the evolution of technology in products?

■ How will PCs, PDAs and phones develop in the future?

■ What will win?

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Revolution Evolution

■ Revolution: Patterns of the past build to the future■ New technologies quickly displace old tech■ But usage model doesn’t change

■ Evolution: Takes time for other parts of the system to adapt into a unique solution■ Rebuild the factory for distributed power■ Not a new “solution” until the entire system changes

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Convergence Appliance

■ Convergence■ Add more features because

“system/evolution” has not developed complete solution

■ Value depends on rate of tech change, not combined cost■ Clock-radio=slow, TV-VCR=fast

■ Benefit of combination can’t be just “two-in-one”■ Two is harder to use than one■ Calculator in phone

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Appliance

■ Segmentation vs. “mass market”■ There is no “mass market” – only undefined markets■ Products diverge through maturity, not converge

Cost of communicating benefits

■ Cost vs. Value■ Cost to upgrade is the true measure

■ Utility vs. Simplicity■ Simplicity wins every time (all other things equal)■ On-board computers vs. I-drive

■ Watch the rear-view mirror – appliances may be gaining on you!

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Future of Appliances

■ WAN networks – not necessarily phones■ E-mail in the sky (keyboard)■ Music in the sky (audio)■ Photos in the sky (big display)■ Everything’s connected

■ Storage everywhere – not just the server■ Ala optical – hard drives in everything

■ Convergence?■ How to keep everything in sync?

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Because if we don’t ……….

Questions?