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20/03/2019
Return and riskGOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL
Press seminarOslo, 20 March 2019
1
2
3
APPENDIXFactor and risk-adjusted return
RETURN
2.1 Return ___________________ 36
2.2 Relative return _____________ 44
2.3 Return and costs ____________56
INVESTMENTS
1.1 Investments _______________ 8
1.2 Reference index ___________ 16
1.3 Reference portfolio _________ 24
3.1 Risk _____________________ 62
3.2 Relative risk _______________ 70
3.3 Risk adjustments ___________ 76
RISK
Investments
3
Management of the fund
4Source: Ang et al (2014). Norges Bank Investment Management
Market
Market index
Reference portfolio
Actual portfolio
Reference indexMinistry of Finance
Norges Bank
Investment Management
Investments
Equity benchmark vs FTSE Global All Cap indexInvestments. Table 8. By country. Billions of kroner
5
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
UK
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Neth
erl
and
s
Czech
Repu
blic
Ma
laysia
Norw
ay
Canad
a
US
Absolute
Deviation
Fixed-income benchmark vs the BBGA indexInvestments. Table 10. By currency. Billions of kroner
6
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Euro
Me
xic
an P
eso
Sw
iss F
ranc
South
Kore
an
Won
Canad
ian D
olla
r
Ch
ilea
n P
eso
Norw
eg
ian
Kro
ne
Ind
on
esia
n R
up
iah
US
Dolla
r
Jap
an
ese
Yen
Absolute
Deviation
Reference portfolio adjustments - equitiesInvestments. Charts 5 and 7. Percent of fund
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Adjustments due to universe expansion
in the reference portfolio for equities.
Over-weighted stocks
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Adjustments due to systematic factors
in the reference portfolio for equities.
Over-weighted stocks
Reference portfolio adjustments - fixed incomeInvestments. Charts 6 and 8. Percent of fund
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Adjustments due to the fiscal strength factor
in the reference portfolio for fixed income.
Under-weighted bonds
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Adjustments due to universe expansion
in the reference portfolio for fixed income.
Over-weighted bonds
Contribution to relative return in 2018Investments. Table 14. Percentage points
9
Equity Fixed income Total
Universe expansion -0.04 -0.09 -0.13
Systematic factors -0.05 -0.05
Mandate requirements 0.01 0.01
Universe adjustments -0.02 -0.02 -0.04
Reference portfolio versus the reference index -0.12 -0.10 -0.22
Contribution to relative return 2013-2018Investments. Table 15. Annualised. Percentage points
10
Equity Fixed income Total
Universe expansion -0.01 -0.06 -0.07
Systematic factors 0.01 0.01
Mandate requirements 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Universe adjustments -0.02 -0.02 -0.05
Reference portfolio versus the reference index -0.01 -0.09 -0.11
Return
11
Absolute return - key figuresReturn. Table 18. Annualised. Percent
12
Since
01.01.1998
Last
10 years
Last
5 years2018
Return on equity investments1 5.31 10.54 5.66 -9.49
Return on fixed-income investments 4.56 4.52 3.05 0.56
Return on unlisted real estate investments2 - - 7.19 7.53
Return on fund 5.47 8.33 4.75 -6.12
1 Since 01.01.1999.2 Includes listed real estate investments from 1 November 2014 to the end of 2016.
Absolute return - 5-year bucketsReturn. Table 19. Annualised. Percent
13
1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017
Return on equity investments1 -4.85 16.28 -0.59 12.94
Return on fixed-income investments 6.26 4.00 5.87 2.96
Return on unlisted real estate investments2 - - - 8.03
Return on fund 3.19 8.92 3.14 9.26
1 Since 01.01.1999.2 Includes listed real estate investments from 1 November 2014 to the end of 2016.
14
Equity
management
Fixed-income
management
Real estate
managementAllocation Total
Fund allocation -0.32 -0.10 0.19 -0.01 -0.24
Reference portfolio -0.12 -0.10 -0.22
of which systematic factors -0.05 -0.05
Allocations -0.20 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.21
Real estate 0.19 0.19
Unlisted real estate 0.24 0.24
Listed real estate -0.05 -0.05
Security selection -0.10 0.06 -0.04
Internal security selection -0.14 0.06 -0.09
External security selection 0.05 0.05
Asset management -0.06 0.04 -0.01
Asset positioning -0.02 0.02 0.01
Systematic factors -0.09 0.01 -0.08
Securities lending 0.04 0.02 0.06
Total -0.47 0.00 0.19 -0.01 -0.30
Contributions to relative return 2018Return. Table 32. Percentage points
15
Equity
management
Fixed-income
management
Real estate
managementAllocation Total
Fund allocation -0.07 -0.10 0.04 0.02 -0.10
Reference portfolio -0.01 -0.09 0.00 -0.11
of which systematic factors 0.01 0.01
Allocations -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.03
Real estate 0.04 0.04
Unlisted real estate 0.05 0.05
Listed real estate -0.01 -0.01
Security selection 0.10 0.01 0.10
Internal security selection 0.00 0.01 0.00
External security selection 0.10 0.10
Asset management 0.10 0.08 0.01 0.18
Asset positioning 0.06 0.07 0.01 0.14
Systematic factors -0.02 0.00 -0.02
Securities lending 0.05 0.01 0.06
Total 0.13 -0.01 0.04 0.03 0.18
Contributions to relative return 2013 - 2018Return. Table 33. Annualised. Percentage points
Relative return after management costsReturn. Table 36. Annualised. Basis points
16
5 years Since inception
The fund's relative return before management
costs3 25
The fund's management costs1 -5 -8
The fund's relative return after
management costs-2 16
1 The fund’s management costs is excluding costs related to unlisted real estate prior to 2017.
Estimated relative return of a passive strategyReturn. Table 37. Annualised. Basis points
17
5 years Since inception
Management costs of a passive strategy -3 -5
Revenues from securities lending 6 6
Transaction costs related to replication of the
benchmark index-2 -4
Transaction costs related to inflows and
extraordinary benchmark changes-1 -5
Estimated relative return of a passive strategy 0 -7
Estimated relative return differenceReturn. Table 38. Annualised. Basis points
18
5 years Since inception
The fund's relative return after management costs -2 16
Estimated relative return of a passive strategy 0 -7
Estimated relative return difference -2 23
Risk
19
Equity exposureRisk. Chart 21. Percent
20
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Rolling return of 70 equity/30 fixed incomeRisk. Chart 19. 5-year rolling return. Annualised. Measured in dollars. Percent
21Source: Dimson-Marsh-Staunton Global Return Data
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Equity contribution
70 equity/30 fixed income
The fund’s expected absolute volatilityRisk. Chart 29. Percent
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Source: Norges Bank Investment Management
23
Equity
management
Fixed-income
management
Real estate
managementAllocation Total
Fund allocation 11 9 26 5 30
Reference portfolio 9 9 12
of which systematic factors 7 7
Allocations 5 3 0 5 8
Real estate 26 26
Unlisted real estate 19 19
Listed real estate 9 9
Security selection 12 2 12
Internal security selection 10 2 10
External security selection 5 5
Asset management 6 2 7
Asset positioning 5 2 7
Systematic factors 3 3
Total 20 9 26 5 33
Expected relative volatilityRisk. Table 41. All numbers measured at fund level. Basis points
36-month correlationRisk. Chart 25. 10-year US yield changes vs. S&P 500 price returns
24
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Source: Bloomberg
Recent and past stressed yearsRisk. Chart 22. Asset class returns. Measured in dollars. Percent
25
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1920 1931 2002 2008
Equity
Fixed income
Source: Dimson-Marsh-Staunton Global Return Data
Fund performance in 2008Risk. Chart 23. Percent
26
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Fund,USD
Fund,Currency basket
Fund,NOK
NOK/USD NOK/Currencybasket
MSCI World industry worst lossesRisk. Chart 28. 12-month and 60-month rolling basis.1970:1 – 2018:12. Percent
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70C
onsum
er
Sta
ple
s
Ind
ustr
ials
Health C
are
Utilit
ies
Energ
y
Ma
teria
ls
Consum
er
Dis
cre
tio
na
ry
Fin
ancia
ls
Com
mun
ication
Se
rvic
es
Info
rmation
Techn
olo
gy
12 months
60 months
Source: MSCI
Regression analysis of relative returnRisk. Table 53. Equity mgt. Measured in dollars. Before management costs
28
Sample period
Regression coefficients
Inte
rce
pt,
bp
s
an
nu
ali
se
d
Ma
rke
t
(MK
T)
Sm
all
vs
La
rge
(SM
B)
Ch
ea
p v
s E
xp
en
siv
e
(HM
L)
Pro
fita
ble
vs
un
pro
fita
ble
(RM
W)
Co
ns
erv
ati
ve
vs
Ag
gre
ss
ive
In
ve
stm
en
t
(CM
A)
Va
ria
nc
e e
xp
lain
ed
in
pe
rce
nt
(R s
qu
are
d)
Since 01.01.1999 32 0.02 0.05 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 45
Last 10 years 24 0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 39
Last 5 years -1 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 -0.04 36
Source: Norges Bank Investment Management, Kenneth French. Bold indicates significance at 5 percent confidence level.
20/03/2019
Return and riskGOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL