We may not have it all together, but together we have it all.

– Ruth Rogers

Retrospective Eutrophic Assessment of the NOWPAP Coastal Areas to Identify Hot Spots on

the Viewpoint of Harmful Algal Blooms

Hak-Gyoon Kim,Pukyong National University

Kang et al., 1991, Oceanography of Asian marginal seas(ed. Takano).

NOWPAP area 33-52⁰ N, 121-143⁰ E- 1,000,000 km2

- average depth-1,350m- semi-closed marginal seas

Marginal sea of semi-enclosed

CERAC. Integrated Report on HABs for the NOWPAP Region. 2005.

Suffer from red tides and HABs

Hub of marine logistics

FAO. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 1998.

High in capture fisheries and aquaculture

Major topics of this presentation

II. Problem formulation in the NOWPAP areas

III. Retrospective Eutrophic Assessment (REA)

I. Methodology for ERA and REA

Ⅴ. Conclusions & recommendations

Ⅳ. Risk Management of eutrophic hot spots

Ⅰ.Methodology for ERA and REA

Basic approach to risk assessment/ risk management

ERA, its identification of the main elements of risk may be carried out in one of two direction –Retrospective and prospective risk assessment (RRA/PRA).

RRA is often carried out as an initial stage before PRA.

Phase A : Problem formulation in NOWPAP areas

Phase B : RRARetrospective risk assessment

Phase C : RPAProspective risk assessment

Phase D : Risk management for NOPAP areas

Stepwise works for Retrospective Eutrophic Assessment (REA)

Phase A : Problem formulation – What is the suspected agent, target, endpoint, etc. ?

Phase C : PRA What are the sources of risk agent, the likely routes of exposure, the likely critical levels ?

Phase D : Risk management Identify risk and risk reduction options, carry out benefit-cost analysis on options, etc.,

Phase B : REAStep 1 : Is it likely that the targets will have been exposed to the suspected agent (s)?

Does the NOWPAP coastal zone is exposed to eutrophic state ?Step 2 :What is the likely exposure levels ?

Estimate the intensity, and duration of the exposure of coastal zone to eutrophic state.

Step 3 : How likely is the relationship between eutrophic state and the adverse environmental consequences ?Assess the likelihood that eutrophication caused harm such as ;- Effects on aesthetic values, incidents of HABs, wildlife, recreation etc.,

Sources of data and information for REA

Report of the NOWPAP activitiesData and information from the regular monitoring Archives on oceanographic and environmental changes

Ⅱ. Problem formulation in the NOWPAP areasWhat is the suspected agent, the target, and endpoints ?

What is the target and spected agent ?

The target : Whole NOWPAP Seas, an important areas for regional economy and climate .

Exposed to anthropogenic pollution due to oceanographic properties of marginal and semi-enclosed sea encompassed by populated Eurasia. Biological risks : HABs, jellyfish blooms, sharp decrease in fisheries resources, etc.,

What are the suspected agents to the risk associated with HABs?Above risks are all related with biological/biomass issues Biomass is largely dependent on the abundance of dissolved limiting nutrientsThey, byproducts of biodegradable organic substances, are the main pollutants globally

www.wwfchina.org

What is the suspected endpoints to be considered in NOWPAP areas ?

The endpoints – eutrophic level and subsequent HABsLevel of dissolved nutrients that can lead frequent HABsFinal endpoints will be the impacts on structure and function of NOWPAP.

Fishkill → harm to living resourcesFood poisoning syndrome → PSP, DSP, ASP, NSP…

Evidences High N and P enhance the growth of microalgae especially mixotrophic dinoflagellates.0.1ppm of N and 0.01ppm of P can initiate dinoflagellate blooms,

and both N and P concentration in NOWPAP are exceeding these criteria. There found already frequent outbreaks of HABs.

Source : GEOHAB Report No. 4, HABs in Eutrophic Systems, 2006)

Ⅲ. Retrospective Eutrophic Assessment (REA)Step 1. Does the NOWPAP areas are in eutrophic state ?

Eutrophic level by COD(2002)

Step 1. Does the NOWPAP areas are in eutrophic state (over 1 ppm of COD)?

An overview on the coastal eutrophic level (COD) in China (2002-,05) , Korea (2002) , and central part of YS(2003). (UNDP/GEF Project, 2007. The Yellow Sea : Vol.3) .

Configuration of COD in seawater in Aug. 2001

UDDP/GEF 두만강유역환경보전사업관련 Workshop 참가보고서. 김평중. 2001

REA-Summary 1

Eutrophic state is on the trend of gradual increase year by year

Land-dependent hierarchical distribution of eutrophic stateHigh levels in the semi-enclosed and river estuaries

Ⅲ. Retrospective Eutrophic Assessment (REA)Step 2. How likely is the relationship between eutrophic state

and the adverse environmental consequences ?

Lots of terrestrial runoffs- high turbidity

Step 3. How likely is the relationship between eutrophic state andthe adverse environmental consequences ?

High nitrogen concentration in the estuary

Eutrophic state leads the incidence of HABs

(Source : UNDP/GEF Project, 2007. The Yellow Sea : Vol.3)

Historical records of HABs in NOWPAP area(PICES S.R. No.23 2002)

The seawater discolored as red and found dead fish in 639 AD in Silla dynasty (Korea)

The oldest was an occurrence in 731 AD. A case of 1234 AD caused fish mortality and human fatalities (Japan).

The first documented HAB event occurred in Zhejiang coastin 1933 (China)

The first narrative of a red tide was in 1857(Russia).

Recent status of HABs in Chinese coast

Source : Yu and Zhou, 2007. Trilateral Workshops for S & T Cooperation, 5-6 Mar. Fukuoka, Japan

Fig. HAB Events in coastal water of China (Zhu et al., 2004)

High nutrient induced widespread HABs

There are 3 areas with frequent HAB occurrences

• Bohai Sea

• Yangtze River Estuary and coastal water of Zhejiang

•Coastal water of Guangdong

Annual Changes of the Area Affected by the C. polykrikoides Blooms in Korean Waters.

YS were affected by this dinoflagellate in 1998-1999(Kim, 1995).

200220012000

1997

1995 19961994

1998 19991999

Fishkill caused by C. polykrikoides blooms in Yatsushiro Bay, Japan in 2000 (N. Yoshimura et al., 2002)

PICES Scientific Report. No. 23. 2003.

CERAC. Integrated Report on HABs for the NOWPAP Region. 2005.

HABs of 1909-1979(Orlova et al., PICES. 2002)

HABs in 1980-2000(Orlova et al., PICES. 2002)

Overview on the changes in the density and species of HABs in the western NOWPAP areas

1980s 2000s Remarks

Density(cells/ml)

Korea≤ 3,000 ≥ 5,000 Kim, 2005

China≤ 3,000(N.s) ≥ 5,000

Zou,1992

Dominant species

Korea Noctiluca scintillis,Skeletonema costatum

Heterosigma akashiwoProrocentrum spp.Alexandrium tamarenseDinophysis acuminata

Kim, 2005

China Noctiluca scintillis,Skeletonema costatum Heterosigma akashiwo,

Heterosigma akashiwoKarenia mikimotoiProrocentrum spp. Alexandrium catenellaDinophysis acuminata

Lin, 1998

1980s 2000s Remarks

Density(cells/ml)

Japan≤ 3,000 ≥ 5,000

Russia≤ 3,000(N.s) ≥ 5,000

Dominant species

Japan Chattonella spp.Noctiluca scintillis,Heterosigma akashiwo

Heterocapsa circularisquama, Heterosigma akashiwo, Cochlodinium polykrikoidesNoctilluca scintillans UNEP/NOWPAP/

CERAC/FPM 3/13, 2005

RussiaNoctilluca scintillanㄴSkeletonema costatum

Noctilluca scintillanㄴProrocentrum minimu

Overview on the changes in the density and speciesof HABs in the eastern NOWPAP areas

SeasonKorea : May - OctoberJapan : May- OctoberChina : May - OctoberRussia : August -summer

Dominant speciesKorea : Cochlodinium, Prorocentrum, Heterosigma, NoctilucaJapan : Heterocapsa, Karenia, Cochlodinium, HeterosigmaChina : Noctiluca, Prorocentrum, AlexandriumRussia : Pseudonitzschia, Alexandrium, Noctiluca, Karenia

Recent changes in HABs in NOWPAP SeasWidespread and persistent High density: ≤3000 to ≥ 5,000cells/ml Species succession :beneficial algal blooms (BAB) in 1980s → harmful algal bloom (HAB)

Four hot HABs spots are consistent with those of eutrophic state

Bohai Bay, Changjiang river estuary, Han river estuary,Kyusu coast, and Vladivostok-Tumen estuary.

REA - Summary 2

Recent adverse impacts of HABs Degrade aesthetic values - reduce marine activities Kill wildlife and induce food poisoning

Persistent HABs → mass mortality Toxic microalgae → PSP, DSP. ASP.NSP etc.,

REA - Summary 3

Ⅳ. Risk management of eutrophic hot spots.-Where they come from ?

Incheon-seoul20M

Mokpo3M

China473M

Kunsan3M

?

Total population and estimates in NOWPAP region's catchment (Unit : million)Year Demography China S. Korea N. Korea

2005 Population 473 48 22

( Source : UNEP/NOWPAP/CERAC/FPM 3/13, 2005 )

Where they come from in WNS? – anthropogenic loads

(Source : UNDP/GEF Project, 2007. The Yellow Sea : Vol.3)

遮歸島

揚子江河口

Yellow Sea

The YS is one of marginal seas

with shallow water depth.

It receives direct river runoffs and

terrestrial effluents due to geographic

land altitude from both sides.

The YS is rich in eutrophication.

ECS

Bohai Sea

Land altitude

• China : 西高東低

• Korea : 東高西低

River flow

China : Eastwardly - 東流

Korea : Westwardly - 西流

Where they come from ? – the likely routes

(Source : UNDP/GEF Project, 2007. The Yellow Sea : Vol.3)

Total population estimates in NOWPAP region's catchment (Unit : million)

Year Demography Russia S. Korea N. Korea Japan

2005 Population 4.3 48 22 34

( Source : UNEP/NOWPAP/CERAC/FPM 3/13, 2005 )

Where they come from in ENS? – anthropogenic loads

Russia4.3M

Japan

34MBusan

3.7M

?

Priorities of marine pollution loads will be;

Terrestrial deposition (River and direct inputs)Water-borne and ocean dumping Atmospheric deposition

Consistent with general statistics ;

☞ GESAMP(1990) estimate : pollutants from various human activities ; land-based sources 44%, maritime transportation 12%, dumping at sea 10%, offshore production 1%atmosphere 33%.

☞ UNEP estimate :Terrestrial runoff : 50-80 %Water-borne : 8-22%Nutrients from the bottom : 3- ? %

Ⅴ. Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusion 1 -Eutrophic Risk

Major pollutants into NOWPAP areas are terrestrial sourcesWNS : Bohai Bay, Changjiang river,Han river (Incheon), Keum river,

Yalu river, Nakdong river,ENS : Vladivostok harbour, Tuman river

High eutrophic state along all the coasts of NOWPAP member statesEutrophic hot spots mainly in the river estuaries of WNS

Bohai bay, Changjiang, Yalu, Han, Keum, and Nakdong river, Kyusucoast, Tumen-Vladivostok

Conclusion 2 – HABs Risk

Harmful algal blooms (HABs)Become frequent in WNS and southern part of ENS coast

WNS : Bohai Bay, Changjiang estuary, Kyounggi Bay, Nakdong riverENS : Vladivostok-Tumen river

Species succession to harmful and toxic species WNS : Noctiluca scintillans, Prorocentrum donghaiense(dentatum),

Karenia mikimotoi , Alexandrium tamarense, Cochlodinium polykirkoides, A. tamarense

ENS : Heterocapsa circularisquama, Karenia mikimotoi, Chattonella spp.

Estimated adverse effectsHarmful species→ food poisoning and fish mortalitiesMono-specific bloom → low diversity

How far the intensity of eutrophic state and HABs can go in 2020 ?Geographic properties should be taken into account.

RQContaminants

≤1 1-10 10-100 100-1000 ≥1000

Eutrophication(mg/l)

T-N

T-P

HABs intensity(cells/ml)

Harmful

toxic

Estimated exposure concentrationThreshold no-effect concentration (EI value)RQ =

?

How would the prospective risk be ?

Terrestrial pollutants

EutrophicationEutrophication

HABsHABs

ChemoclineChemocline

Organic mattersN

lightO2

1st. stage :pollution increase

2nd stage : algal blooms

3rd stage:aerobic decomposition

(Nutrient increase )

(proliferation of algae)

(DO consumption)

sedimentation

Gradual approach to surfaceH2S NH3

O2

Fig. Schematic illustration of the progressive eutrophication in embayment systemBy François Ramade, 1978.

WNS

4th stage :anaerobic decomposition

O2

P

N.P

AnoxiaAnoxia

ENS

Recommendation-1 : NOWPAP Monitoring

Establish cooperative monitoring networksTaking into account the on-going Environment Cooperative Research among NOWPAP member states Take stepwise cooperative monitoring system for NOWPAP.It needs to establish specific Working Groups for this work

This cooperative monitoring system can,Clarify the origin of terrestrial pollutants Can harmonize the data and enhance the QA/QCProvide enough data and information for ERA, TDA, etc.,

Still some constraints in ERAData insufficiency and inadequacy (QA/QC)

No data is available to cover some coastsDifficulties in temporal harmonization of the dataNo enough data to assess the heavy metal and POPs

Difficulties to clarify the origin of pollutantsNo clarification on the origin of the pollutants No analysis of elements involved in the pollutantsNo data addressing the route and exposure of agents

Difficult to make risk-based management Hard to take precautionary approach

Recommendation-2 : Risk Reduction

Hot spot based strategic action program (SAP) Total amount control of major pollutants discharge

Refer the case of Seto Inland Sea and/or Long Island (green tide).Have joint protocol on the reduction of terrestrial effluents

Set collaborative criteria for water quality and effluents release

Recommendation-3 : International Cooperation

Collaborate with UNEP Regional Seas ProgramCooperate with NOWPAPBenchmark the Mediterranean Action Plan

Acknowledgements

NOWPAP RACs - CEARAC, POMRAC, MERRACNational organizations

Korea – NFRDI, KORDIChina : IOCAS, SEPA, SOA,Japan : FRA, Russia : PBS,

Korea-China Joint Research Group for the YS. YSLME-PMO for the all support for this work.

for your attention.

APEC. Firework display “ Let's go together”, Busan, Nov.16, 2005